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Topic: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View - page 13. (Read 19400 times)

supersonic3974
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:47:07 PM
#111
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:44:59 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:41:33 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:37:34 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM
Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.

Yeah, bullshit incentives are actually the only thing that COULD get people to buy in bitcoins.

And what astoundingly extreme circumstances can you imagine that would drive a used car dealer to not only start excepting bitcoins, but to TAKE A LOSS relative to a sale in USD?

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...
Have you ever heard of "for sale by owner"?
BitcoinHoarder
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 103
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:46:38 PM
#110
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:44:59 PM
I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...

There has been a lot of ribbing in this thread but this is serious now.  You should never take a trip to a local SCI house, even if it is for "comical" reasons.

/PSA
imperi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:46:00 PM
#109
Quote from: Shinobi on July 15, 2011, 01:42:59 PM
This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:39:55 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.
Synaptic
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:44:59 PM
#108
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:41:33 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:37:34 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM
Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.

Yeah, bullshit incentives are actually the only thing that COULD get people to buy in bitcoins.

And what astoundingly extreme circumstances can you imagine that would drive a used car dealer to not only start excepting bitcoins, but to TAKE A LOSS relative to a sale in USD?

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...
imperi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:43:28 PM
#107
Quote from: Shinobi on July 15, 2011, 01:39:59 PM
Quote
The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.

Yeah, but only to the extent that it provides for a convenient number, perhaps $1/1BTC. The actual value could be $0.01, just something against which an exchange rate can be had for real currency. People using Silk Road don't give a shit what that value of BTC is. It's just an anonymizing proxy. USD, etc. -> BTC -> USD, etc.

 


If the value is $0.01, then one person can spend 10k and get 1 million bitcoins. So I think that is under-valued.
Serge
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:43:26 PM
#106
i see, i was underestimating SR capabilities. I retract my comments above.
I would still advise to stay far away from that site though. mailing drugs sounds like asking for trouble.

BitcoinHoarder, good point above
Shinobi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:42:59 PM
#105
This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:39:55 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.
BitcoinHoarder
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 103
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:42:24 PM
#104
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:40:51 PM
Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:37:57 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

True, that is a big part of the SR community (reputation and early userids).  However, if a drug is priced just a little bit cheaper, there will be people who buy it even if the guy doesn't have much reputation.  And BTW, the agents can just work together over a few months and build up reputation.

So the agents would sell real drugs to people? This is what you're saying? lol

No.

Agent 1 sells 1/8 oz of pot to Agent 2.  Agent 2 says he did a good job.
Agent 1 sells 1/8 oz of pot to Agent 3.  Agent 3 says he did a good job.

This is what I am saying.
Synaptic
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:42:18 PM
#103
Quote from: Shinobi on July 15, 2011, 01:39:59 PM
Quote
The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.

Yeah, but only to the extent that it provides for a convenient number, perhaps $1/1BTC. The actual value could be $0.01, just something against which an exchange rate can be had for real currency. People using Silk Road don't give a shit what that value of BTC is. It's just an anonymizing proxy. USD, etc. -> BTC -> USD, etc.

 


Absolutely, BUT there will be added value by speculators who still see some market activity, thus driving up the price above the lowest necessary value for whatever level of trade.
supersonic3974
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:41:33 PM
#102
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:37:34 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM
Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.
imperi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:40:51 PM
#101
Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:37:57 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

True, that is a big part of the SR community (reputation and early userids).  However, if a drug is priced just a little bit cheaper, there will be people who buy it even if the guy doesn't have much reputation.  And BTW, the agents can just work together over a few months and build up reputation.

So the agents would sell real drugs to people? This is what you're saying? lol
Shinobi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:39:59 PM
#100
Quote
The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.

Yeah, but only to the extent that it provides for a convenient number, perhaps $1/1BTC. The actual value could be $0.01, just something against which an exchange rate can be had for real currency. People using Silk Road don't give a shit what that value of BTC is. It's just an anonymizing proxy. USD, etc. -> BTC -> USD, etc.

 
Synaptic
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:39:55 PM
#99
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.
BitcoinHoarder
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 103
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:37:57 PM
#98
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

True, that is a big part of the SR community (reputation and early userids).  However, if a drug is priced just a little bit cheaper, there will be people who buy it even if the guy doesn't have much reputation.  And BTW, the agents can just work together over a few months and build up reputation.
Synaptic
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:37:34 PM
#97
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM
Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM
Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
imperi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
#96
Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.
Shinobi
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:35:17 PM
#95
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:21:54 PM
Quote from: grod on July 15, 2011, 01:19:51 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 12:36:25 PM

And, I assume that was the thread on anand tech about mining, which is why you're here - to get your small slice of the pie.  Well, good luck. Just like all the other "grassroots" newcomers, you might eventually pay off a portion of your gaming rig. Kudos.


Shows how little you know and how much you assume. ... If BTC prices (and most likely difficulty) crash hard but I feel BTC itself is still viable you know what I'm going to do?  Gamble several 10s of K on a rack setup and industrial power rates at a co-lo facility.  I may not be an early adopter but there's still plenty of pyramid to be built under me, and there are far riskier investments which don't yield anywhere near as well.


What?

You just proved my assumption correct...

Jesus fuck, you people.

LOL.
Synaptic
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:35:12 PM
#94
Quote from: grod on July 15, 2011, 01:32:13 PM
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:21:54 PM

You just proved my assumption correct...


But what does that have to do with the OP?   I may be out in left field, but this is what I feel people associate with various trading timeframes:

"retirement" - 10+ years
"long term" - 3-10 years
"short term" - 1-3 years
"this year" - 0-12 months
"near term" - 1-6 months
"swing trade" - 1-4 weeks
"day trade" - never take your position home

If you meant "swing trade" timeframe and use that in your OP I'm sure plenty of people disagreeing with you in this thread would sagely nod their heads.  But you said long term.  If bitcoin isn't $0 in 10 years it's going to be a lot, *LOT* more than that.  And that has nothing to do with trading or early adopters or any of your points and everything to do with regulation and other as yet unforseen factors.


I'm actually not someone who thinks it will go to $0 in the long term.  There is definitely a use for bitcoins, just nowhere near where the zealots and speculators want/need it to be.

I see the real USD value settling lower than $10, but certainly above $0. The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.
smoothie
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:34:49 PM
#93
Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 12:00:41 PM
Quote from: thebitcoinchannel on July 15, 2011, 11:55:37 AM
I disagree.

The price has stabilized at roughly 50% of the spike high.  It is now backing and filling and distributing from weak hands to strong hands.  All of this is perfectly normal in a healthy market.  There are so many amazing things about Bitcoin, even one of them is enough to make it a success.  For example, in my video "Bitcoins and Borders"  I outline how the Bitcoin has single-handedly destroyed the power of capital controls, currency controls, and exchange controls.  Just that function ALONE is enough to give Bitcoin a value of 1000.  But there are so many others.  You are too close now, as you are not seeing the forest for the trees.  Take a step back and you'll see a forest that will grow for the next 100 years.

Bitcoins and Borders:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxQ4OrzULoU&feature=channel_video_title

Except it hasn't stabilized. It's being artificially propped up and failing it at that. Again, BTC has not had any gain in value since Gox opened back up.  It has been a slow bleeding.

Back in February when Bitcoin hit above $1 it backed and filled for 1.75 months until it went over a $1 again. So what technical analysis are you using? With this pattern we're looking at the first or second week of August before we can see any movement possibilities.
BitcoinHoarder
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 103
Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View
July 15, 2011, 01:33:06 PM
#92
Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:30:52 PM
Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:25:21 PM
Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:23:44 PM
can you explain how SR works? i never been there.. from what i undersand SR provides service to hook up dealers and buyers.  the protocol they are using is pretty safe - that i will give to them.  if someone orders drugs from there - they must be delivered somewhere, no?  what stops undercover agents to pose as dealers and buyer to catch real dealers and buyes? how is this different from what they were doing with escort services on craiglist?  no sane person after that media exposure will ever go to SR to get their fix! unless they know dealers personally who tell them to commerce with them through SR

Nothing prevents a honeypot.  The real risk is in the buyer who eventually needs to pick up and consume the drugs.  The pick up can be a sting, and the consumption can be poison.  It turns out people who want drugs are willing to accept these risks.

how does SR provide safe harbor for dealers who need to deliver to a buyer?

There really isn't a need for a safe harbor for the dealer.  They can ship anonymously (drop ship) and the transaction is done in Bitcoins.  They just log on and sell whatever they want.  SR does provide escrow, is that what you are asking about?
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