Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View - page 14.

supersonic3974

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Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:24:22 PM

Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM

Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any. It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation. If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: smoothie on July 15, 2011, 01:30:20 PM

Quote from: jjiimm_64 on July 15, 2011, 11:49:49 AM

These are two statement from the same post...

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:37:33 AM

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

my question: Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit: after rereading my post.. I should have said: Aren't these two statements contradictory?

Yes he seems to make a point but then contradict it later on in his own statement.

Not at all.

I offered ample evidence that can easily be verified by hard sources and simple logical reasoning to back up my thesis.

Therefore, no contradiction. Facts follow formula, and I provided the requisite references.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:21:54 PM

You just proved my assumption correct...

But what does that have to do with the OP? I may be out in left field, but this is what I feel people associate with various trading timeframes:

"retirement" - 10+ years
"long term" - 3-10 years
"short term" - 1-3 years
"this year" - 0-12 months
"near term" - 1-6 months
"swing trade" - 1-4 weeks
"day trade" - never take your position home

If you meant "swing trade" timeframe and use that in your OP I'm sure plenty of people disagreeing with you in this thread would sagely nod their heads. But you said long term. If bitcoin isn't $0 in 10 years it's going to be a lot, *LOT* more than that. And that has nothing to do with trading or early adopters or any of your points and everything to do with regulation and other as yet unforseen factors.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:54:25 AM

Quote from: jjiimm_64 on July 15, 2011, 11:49:49 AM

These are two statement from the same post...

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:37:33 AM

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

my question: Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit: after rereading my post.. I should have said: Aren't these two statements contradictory?

I don't believe so. Was there an error in my assessment you'd like to point out that would throw my conclusion into doubt?

Anything that doesn't have 100% chance and hard proof of something being true is called SPECULATION.

Serge

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Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:25:21 PM

Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:23:44 PM

can you explain how SR works? i never been there.. from what i undersand SR provides service to hook up dealers and buyers. the protocol they are using is pretty safe - that i will give to them. if someone orders drugs from there - they must be delivered somewhere, no? what stops undercover agents to pose as dealers and buyer to catch real dealers and buyes? how is this different from what they were doing with escort services on craiglist? no sane person after that media exposure will ever go to SR to get their fix! unless they know dealers personally who tell them to commerce with them through SR

Nothing prevents a honeypot. The real risk is in the buyer who eventually needs to pick up and consume the drugs. The pick up can be a sting, and the consumption can be poison. It turns out people who want drugs are willing to accept these risks.

how does SR provide safe harbor for dealers who need to deliver to a buyer?

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: jjiimm_64 on July 15, 2011, 11:49:49 AM

These are two statement from the same post...

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:37:33 AM

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

my question: Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit: after rereading my post.. I should have said: Aren't these two statements contradictory?

Yes he seems to make a point but then contradict it later on in his own statement.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:22:35 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

Ok, fine, how about:

Bitcoin value in USD surpasses 1 billion. Bloomberg would take that.
Over 100 New York restaurants accept Bitcoin. NYT would take that.
Man pays alimony in Bitcoins, Ex-Wife finally satisfied. Fox would take that

Lol @ the alimony one.

But yes, certainly the first two would be quite news worthy.

LOOKING FORWARD TO SEEING THOSE.

lol...

BitcoinHoarder

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Activity: 146

Merit: 103

Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:23:44 PM

can you explain how SR works? i never been there.. from what i undersand SR provides service to hook up dealers and buyers. the protocol they are using is pretty safe - that i will give to them. if someone orders drugs from there - they must be delivered somewhere, no? what stops undercover agents to pose as dealers and buyer to catch real dealers and buyes? how is this different from what they were doing with escort services on craiglist? no sane person after that media exposure will ever go to SR to get their fix! unless they know dealers personally who tell them to commerce with them through SR

Nothing prevents a honeypot. The real risk is in the buyer who eventually needs to pick up and consume the drugs. The pick up can be a sting, and the consumption can be poison. It turns out people who want drugs are willing to accept these risks.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:21:13 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM

Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any. It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

Serge

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Quote from: imperi on July 15, 2011, 01:19:20 PM

Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:18:12 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:09:45 PM

Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:08:40 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:06:02 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racketeer_Influenced_and_Corrupt_Organizations_Act

Ok, this is just blatant trolling. It must be Friday.

Just saying, if we're to say that the primary economic value of bitcoins are illegal transactions...

This is pure bullshit and heresy! Got any numbers to back that up or are you just assuming shit from what you read in big media?
Please tell me, who in their right mind will run to SR to get illegal drugs after such huge media exposure? there will more official agents honey-potting shit for buyers and sellers than there ever was on craiglist posing as escorts and men seeking women. anyone thinks silkroad is a safe place to get their fix is INSANE

What's not safe about it? If you knew anything about you would know it's pretty secure. You only buy from sellers who have high ratings and good feedback. (btw I don't do drugs)

can you explain how SR works? i never been there.. from what i undersand SR provides service to hook up dealers and buyers. the protocol they are using is pretty safe - that i will give to them. if someone orders drugs from there - they must be delivered somewhere, no? what stops undercover agents to pose as dealers and buyers to catch real dealers and buyes? how is this different from what they were doing with escort services on craiglist? no sane person after that media exposure will ever go to SR to get their fix! unless they know dealers personally who tell them to commerce with them through SR

BitcoinHoarder

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 103

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

Ok, fine, how about:

Bitcoin value in USD surpasses 1 billion. Bloomberg would take that.
Over 100 New York restaurants accept Bitcoin. NYT would take that.
Man pays alimony in Bitcoins, Ex-Wife finally satisfied. Fox would take that

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: grod on July 15, 2011, 01:19:51 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 12:36:25 PM

And, I assume that was the thread on anand tech about mining, which is why you're here - to get your small slice of the pie. Well, good luck. Just like all the other "grassroots" newcomers, you might eventually pay off a portion of your gaming rig. Kudos.

Shows how little you know and how much you assume. *MY* analysis showed BTC overbought. I started selling as quickly as my rig was producing BTC. At 24 on 13th of June, 22, 20, 19.5, gox pause,several x 16, 15, 14 and the last ones at 13.88 yesterday, 14th of July. Another got produced last night, and a couple more are in a NMC<->BTC trading account.

So for me, my investment in video hardware including power was paid for in about 12 days, with the past 18 being pure profit (granted, I didn't make anywhere near as much during the past 18 as the first 6). Oh, and the hardware was bought for entertainment, not income. I'm really looking forward to mining not being viable any more so I get to enjoy it guilt-free. This is the first time my hardware hobby ever paid for itself directly.

If BTC prices (and most likely difficulty) crash hard but I feel BTC itself is still viable you know what I'm going to do? Gamble several 10s of K on a rack setup and industrial power rates at a co-lo facility. I may not be an early adopter but there's still plenty of pyramid to be built under me, and there are far riskier investments which don't yield anywhere near as well.

What?

You just proved my assumption correct...

Jesus fuck, you people.

imperi

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 101

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:20:16 PM

Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any. It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:16:07 PM

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any. It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it. Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME. Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 12:36:25 PM

And, I assume that was the thread on anand tech about mining, which is why you're here - to get your small slice of the pie. Well, good luck. Just like all the other "grassroots" newcomers, you might eventually pay off a portion of your gaming rig. Kudos.

Shows how little you know and how much you assume. *MY* analysis showed BTC overbought. I started selling as quickly as my rig was producing BTC. At 24 on 13th of June, 22, 20, 19.5, gox pause,several x 16, 15, 14 and the last ones at 13.88 yesterday, 14th of July. Another got produced last night, and a couple more are in a NMC<->BTC trading account.

So for me, my investment in video hardware including power was paid for in about 12 days, with the past 18 being pure profit (granted, I didn't make anywhere near as much during the past 18 as the first 6). Oh, and the hardware was bought for entertainment, not income. I'm really looking forward to mining not being viable any more so I get to enjoy it guilt-free. This is the first time my hardware hobby ever paid for itself directly.

If BTC prices (and most likely difficulty) crash hard but I feel BTC itself is still viable you know what I'm going to do? Gamble several 10s of K on a rack setup and industrial power rates at a co-lo facility. I may not be an early adopter but there's still plenty of pyramid to be built under me, and there are far riskier investments which don't yield anywhere near as well.

imperi

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 101

Quote from: Serge on July 15, 2011, 01:18:12 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:09:45 PM

Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:08:40 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:06:02 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racketeer_Influenced_and_Corrupt_Organizations_Act

Ok, this is just blatant trolling. It must be Friday.

Just saying, if we're to say that the primary economic value of bitcoins are illegal transactions...

This is pure bullshit and heresy! Got any numbers to back that up or are you just assuming shit from what you read in big media?
Please tell me, who in their right mind will run to SR to get illegal drugs after such huge media exposure? there will more official agents honey-potting shit for buyers and sellers than there ever was on craiglist posing as escorts and men seeking women. anyone thinks silkroad is a safe place to get their fix is INSANE

What's not safe about it? If you knew anything about you would know it's pretty secure. You only buy from sellers who have high ratings and good feedback. (btw I don't do drugs)

Serge

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:09:45 PM

Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on July 15, 2011, 01:08:40 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:06:02 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racketeer_Influenced_and_Corrupt_Organizations_Act

Ok, this is just blatant trolling. It must be Friday.

Just saying, if we're to say that the primary economic value of bitcoins are illegal transactions...

This is pure bullshit and heresy! Got any numbers to back that up or are you just assuming shit from what you read in big media?
Please tell me, who in their right mind will run to SR to get illegal drugs after such huge media exposure? there will more official agents honey-potting shit for buyers and sellers than there ever was on craiglist posing as escorts and men seeking women. anyone thinks silkroad is a safe place to get their fix is INSANE

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: supersonic3974 on July 15, 2011, 01:10:28 PM

Here are some headlines for you.

BITCOIN STILL GOING STRONG AFTER HACKING!

ILLEGAL GOODS MARKET STILL ONLINE DESPITE WIDE PUBLICITY!

MAN BUYS CAR WITH BITCOINS!

MAN BUTS HOUSE WITH BITCOINS!

CHARITIES NOW ACCEPTING BITCOIN DONATIONS!

WE THOUGHT IT WOULD DIE! - BITCOINS STILL ALIVE... AND GROWING!

Every single one of those headlines is obviously from the perspective of someone with a direct stake in bitcoins, appealing to an audience who are versed in bitcoins and also hold a direct stake in bitcoins.

Notice that when the EFF and wikileaks started accepting bitcoin there wasn't any attention given to it by the MSM. The wider public has NO IDEA about these inconsequential happenings, which to bitcoin proponents are news.

No one in the corporate media cares about that dude who is traveling around using only bitcoins. No-one in the corporate media cares that someone traded a steaming paper bag full of their own shit for a yacht.

Also, I LOVE that with ILLEGAL GOODS MARKET STILL ONLINE DESPITE WIDE PUBLICITY! you don't directly mention bitcoins but you DIRECTLY imply that bitcoins are what keep this market functioning.

You people are wonderful.

supersonic3974

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any. It just means you have a limited imagination.

Serge

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

cliff-notes of OP:

I WANT TO BUY CHEAP BITCOINS! THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

Topic: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View - page 14. (Read 19400 times)