Topic: Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch - page 9. (Read 55258 times)

I belive 500$ Is going to be the max over this 10 year period.

People that need to tell others that they are smart usually try to hide the fact that they are not smart enough in their eyes...
Seing what you have writen on these forums makes me think that maybe you are smart, but not even close to being genius.
So stop sniffing your own farts. Your brain will be more healthy that way.

In my experience computers have generated more work than any industry ever.
Workers that use computers don't work less hours, they simply do more in a given time period.
Moreover, computers created completely new industries. People designing websites, people working as engineers, etc, etc, etc.
The jobs of CGI artist, programmer, website designer, system administrator, computer guru, security specialist, network engineer/administrator, electronics manufacturer, dance music producer, industrial designer, video editor, etc etc etc etc.

I think you forget about the fact that computers created lots and lots of jobs.
So to me it is much more a shift of employment.
Sure, a lot of jobs became useless. But at the same time lots of new possibilities for employment came into existance.

In fact, please provide figures that make it clear that the computer revolution (lets take the first intel cpu as a starting point, around 1970) reduced jobs and caused unemployment. Please make it so that it is clear that unemployment was caused by computers and not by other factors.
Maybe you can start by comparing unemployment rate with PC penetration, see what you get.

 

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2140843

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2140631

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/13/gold-2015-75/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/13/welcome-to-the-new-international-currency-the-dollar/

What he is saying is that gold bulls are fighting the idea that the dollar is going to rise (dollar rise because Europe and Japan will crater first over next 2 years or so), thus the low in gold is protacted until the bulls finally capitulate.

He doesn't see the low pushing out past 2015.

To me, looks like we might get a low this summer, then a rally, then another capitulation later perhaps 2014, for a final low. Then start moving back up.

He reasons in the second link above, that gold won't blast off like a crazy rocket to all time highs until the dollar rally has ceased, which is after 2015.

There simply isn't any reason to be in a rush to buy now. The dollar must go up first or gold bugs have to anticipate it early and capitulate.

The break of support at $25 for silver, can't be over yet. There is always at least a deadcat bounce and a move lower.

Any way, I am not really trying to make money on my savings in PMs now. Just trying to manage my savings sanely, so I have cash when I need it, and I minimize chances of needing to sell at the bottom.

The goal is not to make money, but preserve capital.

Let's hope capital gain taxes are only 28% on gold by the time we well (for those in USA without retirement plan deferral protection). By the way, get everything out the retirement plan-- it is all going to be nationalized and confiscated.

Stop thinking about not reporting unless you are dealing entirely in cash with a broker who doesn't record your identity. Too risky. See if there are cameras. I don't advocate breaking the law.

I am thinking it is best to pay taxes. The best is to work and generate income.

Money is a hassle. Keeping life simple is best, use what you really need. Work on what is really interesting and doesn't consume your entire life. If it generates enough to sustain your simple life and all is contented. Well that is the hope, but not always easy to implement.

Disclaimer: I am not giving advice, consult your own professional. I am sharing some thoughts about my thinking only! Don't hold me responsible for anything you do!

Nonsense from someone who doesn't have a grasp of the technical issues.

Without the concensus block being respected, there is no guarantee against double-spends.

Dude I have thought about these issues deeply. My IQ is well into the near genius range. Please stop wasting my time.

If you deny that the economic problems of Europe at turn of last century were caused by the unemployment due to loss of cottage industry to mass production, then go on in your fantasy world. The Case-Schiller housing price chart (for the USA) clearly shows that housing was abnormally cratered for a few decades due to this.

And this is repeating, this time it is due to the computer causing massive unemployment.

Note the more fundamental cause of Europe's problems have always been statism, as it funds (by stealing from production with taxes and sovereign debt) people to delay their adjustment to technological shift. The mathematical model here:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-401368

lol
a lot of fancy words
if the "cartel" wants to delay your tx ,   others will not and accept the tx    hardly a digital kill switch

I've read it and it's selective mumbo jumbo.

Someone asking me if I was bailing out on investing in Bitcoin. Here was my reply.

I can't give advice because each person's situation is unique and because I can be wrong. I don't want to be responsible for the outcomes of others.

I don't think the flaws that I revealed in Bitcoin are going to affect the near-term outlook for speculators who are buying Bitcoin. Thus no impact on the near-term investment returns.

I will share with you what I am thinking for myself. First, I trust the following blog as having a good (not perfect) track record of understanding:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/

Second, although Bitcoin will probably be a positive returning investment, no one can say for sure when it is overvalued short-term, and there is much risk from not only volatility but also from unexpected government rulings which could be positive or negative.

Also much capital is shifting into Bitcoin because there is so much capital floating around looking for a positive return. When the next liquidity squeeze comes (anytime between 2014 and 2017), then risk assets may be the first to selloff. I would be selling into the Bitcoin rallies and using proceeds to buy the gold dips.

Core savings that can not afford to be lost should be in gold. Period. And probably waiting for a further dip in the gold price to bottom either in 2013 or to extend the decline out to 2015. Armstrong is watching for a close below $1310 for 2013 as a sign of potential decline through 2015. If not, we may have seen the bottom in 2013, probably another 10 - 25% (perhaps even 30% as a small risk) lower from current price.

Given gold is going to double, triple or more by the end game, buying it at any time for long-term hold is fine.

Short-term speculation rarely works out. You buy Bitcoin for a long-term hold if you really believe in it, then maybe sell a portion on every 50% - 100% increase in the price. But realize it is no where near as sure to not destroy your savings as gold is. Allocate accordingly.

Having said that, I am not allocating anything to Bitcoin, because it is too much of a hassle and stress and I don't expect my big gains in life to come from speculations, rather I expect them to come from my programming projects. I don't want to cause a risk to my savings that prevents me from being able to work on the projects that I want to work on, that have the best chance of generating outsized returns.

The link in the prior post to the table of the 78 year cycle is superior because it has links to much background information, but that server is not loading right now (it will load at other times, keep trying).

Here is a synopsis version:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4824&cpage=1#comment-395999 (scroll to the end of the linked comment)

Some other links on this point:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Housing%20Recovery%20Illusion.html
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4867&cpage=1#comment-397370
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4927&cpage=1#comment-400320

You might be interested in this:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Shelby_H_Moore.html

Check out the accurate predictions on silver Oct 2010 and gold on March 4. Yeah that is me.

THE LINK TO THE EVIDENCE OF 78 YEAR CYCLE IS AT THE END OF THIS POST. STUDY IT. YOU WILL BE SHOCKED AT YOUR IGNORANCE.


Please read this rebuttal (including the comments below the linked one):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-401360


For perhaps 10 days of my entire life, and just stated that I am leaving because I am stopping all work on cryptocurrencies.


Except for the fact that I created coolpage.com back in 1998 from a Nipa Hut and was essentially the world's first social network with 1 million confirmed users at that time when the internet was tiny (had 1% of the internet building their websites with my product), and was earning a significant amount of money given I was the only employee.

And not to mention that precursor to friendster came around to buy me out, but only got a non-exclusive license because I didn't want stock options right before what I knew was a coming dot.com crash.

Should I mention I created one of world's first WYSIWYG commercial word processors back in 1986.

Or that I worked on what is now Corel Painter.


Diarrhea.


To use bitcoin (not mine it), requires rudimentary smartphone with a client and rudimentary internet connection.

Both are ubiquitous in the Philippines where I am, which has higher penetration of cell phones than in the USA (most people own more than one), and there is an internet cafe on every street corner (if not 2 or 3).


Yes it is useless for transactions now. It is only a gambling casino right now (or speculation).

BTW, I can buy Bitcoin in the Philippines, do a damn Google search before you foam at the mouth.


Nearly all income comes from exporting their products and people to service developed countries.

And they are fanatical about getting an education and about finding opportunities to generate income from abroad.


Native products, including bamboo furniture, artwork, carvings, but more importantly now they sell their time to do business process outsourcing, for example compiling corporate records, or medical records and zillion other things at 1/20th the cost of a westerner doing the same job.

There are even freelancers doing marketing surveys, writing blog posts to get share of advertising revenue, teaching english to other nationalities over Skype, and a zillion other things.

I personally know people doing all the things I mentioned above. I have been to their houses and see them doing it. Dumb ass!



Come over here and see all the fat people. And girls with big breasts. Dumb ass!

Maybe you are thinking more of Africa, but I know someone in Ethiopia and they highly censor the internet, but the floodgate will open there, and the people are eating a lot more these days than you think. She recently added me to a social network I'd never heard of. People are much more aware and connected than you think. The change is happening so fast, that talking about last year's conditions is silly.


Who ever asserted that Bitcoin would solve every problem in the third world?

I was more interested in Bitcoin as a way other than gold for rich people to hide their capital from the statism failure that is going to confiscate everything in the next few years.


The entire world is going to be enslaved by the economic failure of statism and the confiscations are going to worsen the failure. The developing nations are short the dollar via massive dollar loans as the Fed has been flooding the world with dollars. Thus the more severe the confiscations (the less can be hidden), the worse the developing world is going to be hit with implosion and chaos.

Read an expert who called the decline in gold before it happened:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/



The hope was another place to store capital to prevent the fascists from confiscating it (via their control over government).

 

The failure is guaranteed by the economics of statism. You still haven't read the links I sent you. Google this "Some Iron Laws of Political Economics".

There is no solution to avoid the failure. The only hope is to save yourself.

And yes to help as many people as possible to learn how to do hitech, so they won't be unemployed. ANd this is all about technology.

But that won't stop the coming failure and confiscations.



They can't have that unless they know how to do hitech, because other skills are going into the dustbin of robotic and automation pre-history.

Everything hinges on technology. For example, online education, which I am creating:

http://copute.com/edu/


I was born in the USA. I emigrated in my mid-30s (48 now), but not permanently except perhaps since 2006.


Indeed, except if there was a technological alternative that can't be dominated by societal dynamics. And it turns out that there apparently isn't such a possibility, for the reason that non-centralized entropy can't be injected into an alternative that does not otherwise have a 51% attack. As I detailed in a link up thread.


Indeed I have.


Nonsense. None of that would stop the guaranteed failure of statism over and over in history.


That all comes from technology, which the statism fights against, by propping up the old paradigms with debt. Thus leading the repeating 78 year failure as technology advances and people don't

The two world wars were due to cottage industry disrupted by mass production and thus massive unemployment.

The current one is about the personal computer disrupting western employment. First the jobs went the China to compete against automation, now the jobs are leaving china as the automation has gotten more efficient as wages have risen in China.

The prior ones on the 1700 and 1800s were soil technology revolutions that increased yields and displaced agricultural workers. There was also the first industrial revolution and the railroad bubble.


You are twisted. I never argued against using technology. I am one of the biggest proponents of technology you will find.


As if the computer depends on statism   What an idiot. You conflate orthogonal things.


No dimwit. There are real people with real hearts (majors, corporals, etc) between those buttons and the world annihilation.

Also the statism can't overtly kill everyone and have any support. It must pretend to have good versus bad, so the people fall into their trap of wanting everything they want irrespective of cost.

Also nuclear winter won't kill everyone. The likely survivors would include many hard-core anti-government folk.


Learn to spell, bizarre.

The efficiency has to operate within conventional war, where the excuse (illusion) of good vs. bad can be maintained.

The megadeaths occur where the population is disarmed and the government has been given the arms.



That was the proposition. Research revealed it isn't possible.


There are varying degrees of subversion. If all technology was fully subvertable, nothing would function. This is stupid generalization. We look at the specifics and come to a conclusion based on the facts, as I did.


It is the only thing that has saved mankind's ass, starting since at least the invention of tools and fire.


WRONG!

Read all comments above and below the linked chart:

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/#comment-21690

(wait for the page to load the specific comment down the page, which has an unformatted textual table of dates and technology disruptions and the wars caused by the unemployment due to technology disruptions)

If the comment doesn't scroll into view after clicking the above link, then search down the page for "armstrong" then look for the comment with the table.

Note that linked site is sometimes down due to overloaded server. Keep trying it. I will also try to find another copy of the information and provide a link in future post.

Sure, but if you want to take that viewpoint then war never realy ended. And lots of other wars that were not directly related to this treaty. War never stopped because humans never stopped fighting over stuff. And the fact that there was this time of lots of disorder in our particular corner of the world doesn't point to a cycle, nevermind assuming some time period for it to be valid.

Just to be sure i want to stress that i make a distinction between cycles, which are cyclical and have a given period, and economic booms, which can overlap with other booms and have cycles with stochastic time periods.
To me a cycle is the result of a similar system acting over a long time and starting to resonate while booms are formed by singular changes to the system (like the availability of a new technology) that opens new opportunities.


In case you are a proponent of the 78 year cycles, look here and tell me if you can identify it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1945%E2%80%9389

Maybe you can say that there is this cycle in the US economy, but to be honest, the world is stopping with giving a shit about the US of A. USA is not the future of the world. The future is much more likely to come from asia. USA is becoming a dinosaur on the world stage. Who are they going to attack? China? Russia?
If the USA starts a war for real they know it can't end well for them.

Treaty of Versailles. You could say it was one big war. 

There is no chance in the world that 90% tax would make a system survive longer than a day in the current situation. No statist power in the westen world can extract 90% of what people make and use it for its own selfish goals.
To do it you would need complete and total control over all information. This is simply not doable anymore. Countries like north korea get it done because they strictly control the posibilities for communication. That would be unthinkable in our world and so this form of control becomes a lot more useless unless everyone decides to not use their internet or mobile phones.

I'll say it again, things are not a simple or clear cut as you make them out to be.

I don't agree with this in the sense that you only look at half the story (It makes me think you have no clue as to the function statism has in any society).
I think you are only talking about when statism goes out of control.
I fully agree that statism out of control is a bad thing. But no statism at all is also a bad thing.
The only solution is to make sure there is a healthy balance.
Megadeath will happen on both extremes.
Too much statism is megadeath.
Too little statism is also megadeath (because people cannot voluntarily peacefully co-exist when resources are scarse).


I live in a 3rd world country, you are making a fool of yourself.