bcc: Kristen Linton @ Solari to pass on to Catherine
Three more points of evidence that seem to argue that Catherine's optimism is unrealistic:
1. Obama's Health Care plan is going to significantly impact to the negative any business where labor is a significant component. How do we get widespread recovery of the economy without widespread involvement of labor?
2. Catherine's model of individuals and small (rural!) communities reinventing themselves is precisely what happens when empires fail. The cities become empty and only those who fend for themselves in the rural areas survive. It is not a model for society wide recovery, rather it is THE model for collapse:
http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-345588The population of Rome plummeted -97% from 1.4 million in 450AD to 40,000 over the next 1000+ years.[1]
Dark Ages where the population abandons cities occurred in Greece from 1600 – 1200BC (with coinage only re-appearing in 7th century BC), after the collapse of Rome that lasted 600 years, and in Japan for 600 years during which no coinage was created.[2]
[1] Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference, Armstrong
[2] Are we Headed into a Mad Max Scenario?, Armstrong
3. What Catherine describes as a slow burn (e.g. the now sick small farmers in her region being turned into welfare dependents eating GMO by the greed of the fascism which outlawed their organic farming in favor of GMO, Monsanto, and corporate farming) is analagous to how the end came about in Rome:
http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-344589@Winter:
You attempt to remove blame from the effects of top-down governance. Agriculture in Western Europe declined for numerous reasons all of which can be attributed to mismanagement due to top-down control and the funding of such misallocation. Socialized debt is a future tax. The agricultural sector was suffering under increasing taxes after the hyperinflation of the 3rd century had adversely impacted funding for the military while there were increasing military threats to the east. Pottery records indicate production increased through the 4th, as the rural sector was squeezed for every drop by Rome. As with all debt funding, growth was too rapid, and irrigation was polluted by clearing for too many new
settlements. The resultant malnutrition, declining production, localized warlords, and thus disease coincided with the collapse of Western Europe due to the bankruptcy of its top-down militarized, servitude model.
We will likely find the same top-down cause applies to of all Dark Ages– even the famines in Africa.
Indeed, probably due to plagues of various kinds
Pinker attributes the entire population decline to the fall of Rome, even though it set in before the fall or Rome.
In fact, what happened was that Rome was in financial trouble because, like much of Europe, it was taxing well above the Laffer limit. Well, thought Diocletian, if overtaxed people will not work, make them work. So he in large part instituted a command economy, which probably caused rises in the death rates for the usual reasons that we observe command economies killing people today and during the twentieth century. Basically, in a command economy, you have to murder people to get stuff done.
My further comments are interleaved within yours below.
> Thank you for the feedback, you make good points. However, my sense is that the centralization of global economic power has reached the point where TPTB can manipulate just about every variable swiftly and
> effectively, including interest rates - i.e. for several more years under the dollar fiat and then when that system is no longer viable they will make their move to a digital global currency.
Even if the elite were entirely in control (which Armstrong argues is impossible and I agree), why would they want to hold interest rates down? The ROI on each new dollar of debt has reached a few pennies in China and just about every where in the world. There is overcapacity in every sector, e.g. even here in the Philipppines they are building a shopping mall on every corner while the people still only earn $200 per month.
If they continue pumping more debt into the global economy, they will cause massive social unrest because of the waste. They have to move now to next stage which is defaults, which will bankrupt everyone but themselves. They can use the Public sector to hunt down all the remaining capital and assets that isn't theirs (so they will own the growth phase that comes after this wipeout). They got their $40 trillion and have it positioned. For example, they are building pipelines across the USA to carry natural gas to new export terminals so they can export to Asia which they keep dependent on imports, because for example they come to the aid of Japan Senkaku islands and Philippines Spratly islands to keep China from developing these huge natural gas fields.
They have given Dept of Homelove (hands down kid's pants) Security the right to purchase billions of hollow point bullets (which are illegal in war because they are so gruesome) and 2714 tank-like vehicles. Does that sound to you like they are preparing for a subtle slow down and
slow-cooked frogs in the boiling pot?
Nothing every crashes like that. In nature, all exponential phenomenon have a long period of exponential gestation, a phase-shift blow off where the nominal change is now large, an then a waterfall collapse that is much shorter than the gestation period.
> In the interview I believe Fitts spoke about how derivatives are used to manipulate interest rates. Makes sense that the derivatives market is a powerful tool in this context. How much longer can this work?
Exactly. And now the Fed and the Treasury Dept is telling all the banks that their derivative books won't be bailed out in 2016 and that they need to start unwinding. This is another reason we are seeing the interest rates going up radically since May. The derivatives will take priority to the bond holders and the depositors, e.g. bail-ins are coming.
They are getting ready to default the global economy and they will be the only ones left standing after the dust clears.
They will use this leverage to force the developing world to follow their aims. But remember, they are not entirely in control. And their plan will leak. For example, I am creating the better Bitcoin that will enable private capital to run and hide (and still be liquid unlike gold in large size will be trapped by taxation, but the better anonymous Bitcoin will not be).
> We should also consider compensatory mechanisms.
> Interesting side note, about 9 years ago, I had an online forum chat with an old insider economist (he authored widely used economics textbooks, was Ivy League, bragged about being a close friend of Milton Friedman, etc.) about the dismantling of the U.S. manufacturing sector and he told me he was confident that the U.S. would be in a position to quickly rebuild a large manufacturing sector.
You know I have been calling for that too for past several months.
The point is that the elite will own this sector. The proprietor's capital won't survive the coming wipeout unless they play ball with the elite, except for the leakage I am talking about above.
Also this sector will either be very low labor (thus not a big impact on the general economy in the USA), else they will play ball with the elite (e.g. to get a waiver from the Obama administration on health care or otherwise not abused by the IRS).
Fascism 101.
> Of course, that seemed very unlikely given
> the U.S. debt situation and China's advantages of slave labor and lack of regulation.
China and Asia will still win on anything that is labor intensive. This is why Asia will be #1 as we come out the crisis.
The elite are planning to use the hitech community in the USA as slaves, while keeping Asia as slaves by controlling key inputs such as energy.
> In retrospect, remembering other commentary he posited, at
> the time he seemed delusional but now I have to think he was, like Carroll Quigley, being given access to deep insider intel.
> Thanks again for the info and your input. I will be thinking about your points on interest rates.