Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch - page 5.

AnonyMint

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Downloaded software which wishes to be secure should employ the Socialist Millionaire algorithm to insure the checksum of the download was not transmitted by a man-in-the-middle who changed the download.

Communications between individuals would be more secure with OTR than PGP.

AnonyMint

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I am convinced these authors are technically myopic.

This Bitcoin2 proposal seems to be trying to address some of my concerns as enumerated upthread and in the OP of this thread, yet all their suggestions are WRONG.

Bitcoin 2: Freedom of Transaction

Bitcoin Payment Messages & Transaction Metadata: if this is added to Bitcoin as planned, it may open a huge market for people to flee to an altcoin that doesn't have the capability to store receipts from merchants in the blockchain. However probably not because realize if the customer and merchant are anonymous, they can't be pressured by the state and if they aren't anonymous, they can be pressured regardless of these new protocols. Thus the protocols aren't the real threat, rather the lack of good anonymity in Bitcoin is.
Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Scoring: the issue here again is the lack of true anonymity in Bitcoin.
Repudiable Transactions: Nonsense on the threat of Transaction Metadata allowing repudiation. Repudiation can't happen in any new ways that it can't already (i.e. sending the coin to a third-party) without a change to the way blockchain is verified by the protocol, and currently this means only the private key of the sender can create a transaction and there is no means for the private key to take it back. If repudiation is added to blockchain verification, then there would be a genuine concern that merchants will require identity of the customer to score based on risk of chargeback. However, without repudiation, the spenders may need to know the identity of the merchant to make judgments based on risk of non-delivery. Yet these potentials are asymmetrical in effect, thus adding repudiation may increase net bad effects. However, repudiation is added by third parties any way, e.g. trusted exchanges or decentralized 3-way group signatures with an appointed mediator.

If Chaum's group signature repudiation (becoming irrepudiable after N blocks) were ever implemented in the blockchain, it would be necessary to not allow the recipient's balance to fall (not allowed to spend) below the outstanding potential repudiations.
VoucherSafe: This doesn't provide instant confirmations where the spender wants to put an extra unspendable (since N blocks in the past to M blocks in the future) bounty awarded in case the spender issues a double-spend. And this can only be done in the blockchain verification protocol (since the spend has to be disallowed for a period and the award of the bounty has to be protocol).
Sliding blockchain (with ﬁxed block size) : the blockchain size can't remain fixed and scale to Visa-scale.
Distribution of dead coins: Why the complexity of distributing them? Just destroy them. Oh yeah, Bitcoin ceases creating new coins after 2033 thus destroyed coins don't get replaced, which is another weakness because mining is the only way to get true anonymity.
Forced mixing of coins with Zerocoin: Even with true anonymity, Zerocoin on first glance appeared to be useful because some people may give up anonymity on some purchases and so don't want to link back to their other anonymous coins. But the whole Zerocoin thing against the government falls apart because if your identity is known on either side, the authorities can compel you to reveal the links forward or backward. The only anonymity is true anonymity! Zerocoin is useless against the government. Zerocoin might have other utility against traffic analysis by the private sector which doesn't have this power to compel, and for this applicability there is no problem if the people who use Zerocoin are not mixed with people who don't need to use it.
Miner ostracism: centralization and killing true anonymity for what gain? Worse yet, this devolves into chaos, because there is no consensus. If there is really consensus then fork the chain each time the ostracized miner wins a Proof-of-Work, otherwise this is simply chaos with different spenders banning themselves from different miners that gains nothing.
Final transfer of coins from Bitcoin to Bitcoin2: Uh, what about the constantly changing relative market price Beavis? Oh so you mean there will be a period to transfer them at a some fixed ratio before the market (blockchain processing) begins? Uh, who determines the fair ratio Butthead?
Embrace a good code base: btcd: might be their one good idea for forks.
Limit the number of transactions: Why? Can't grow to Visa-scale.
Support for nodes and complete network on Tor: Yeah but something better tuned than Tor.
Nonce-Signatures & Block-Signatures: I can't see how this forces decentralization. Any proxy can use its own key if it has agreement with the peer doing the number crunching.

Developers should discuss this post in a special thread created for it:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2847244

AnonyMint

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https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2846240

AnonyMint

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Quote from: GCInc. on June 25, 2013, 07:27:39 AM

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enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power

The disk space proof of work solution is by far the best suggestion I have seen to attain this [not up to date of its feasibility?] but does it not still prompt big money to invest in large modern Petabyte level disks to grab the best positions?

Thank you. Unfortunately, upthread I concluded that disk space proof (as a subset of proof-of-consensus) can't be secure, because the input entropy is deterministic. The tradeoff is that Proof-of-Work is provably secure up to 51% control, whereas Proof-of-Consensus (i.e. share or disk space) is insecure at much less than 51%. The only way to fix that insecurity is to centralize the system by employing persistent reputation (and Proof-of-stake falls under this category of a non-solution).

Litecoin's Scrypt is sufficient because it "make the random lookup the largest time component of the calculation". However, Litecoin stops the mining after a certain date in the future, which is a problem as discussed upthread.

Quote from: GCInc. on June 25, 2013, 07:27:39 AM

Or is it simply not dependent on the amount of disk space, just if you have any online capable computer you're qualified for mining... which would effectively strip the rich of their power while the capacity to amass ancient hardware is not as directly relative to wealth. I would love to see that kind of great equalizer and the effect of hoarding what is now obsolete hardware in the millions as would be expected in such circumstances.

The deep pocketed attacker could mass produce Raspberry Pi at $25 each.

========

Decentralized Solution to the 51% Attack

I have been thinking about what (even a minority of the users) could do in even that the powers that be obtain 51% control over the Proof-of-Work blockchain. We could post a transaction to a new blockchain and challenge the main blockchain to accept it. If after sometime the main blockchain did not, then it would be clear that minority blockchain was the new blockchain for that transaction. If the attacker takes control of this new minority blockchain, then repeat the procedure again. In this way, the attacker can never block transactions.

I think I have it all figured out now?

GCInc.

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Quote

enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power

The disk space proof of work solution is by far the best suggestion I have seen to attain this [not up to date of its feasibility?] but does it not still prompt big money to invest in large modern Petabyte level disks to grab the best positions?

Or is it simply not dependent on the amount of disk space, just if you have any online capable computer you're qualified for mining... which would effectively strip the rich of their power while the capacity to amass ancient hardware is not as directly relative to wealth. I would love to see that kind of great equalizer and the effect of hoarding what is now obsolete hardware in the millions as would be expected in such circumstances.

AnonyMint

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I mentioned a few posts upthread, that I think one of the most important features for a better bitcoin alternative is the ability to realistically mine from general purpose computers. Two main reasons:

help protect against a 51% attack by enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power
anonymity (not subject to id checks at money exchanges) since western governments must hunt down all wealth over time and confiscate it. Paul Rosenberg, the CEO of virtual private network provider Cryptohippie seems to agree. First they will do "bail-ins" for deposits over 100,000 probably with clawback against those who moved funds in anticipation, c.f. clawbacks in the MG Global default.

In addition to such a better alternative bitcoin perhaps coming on the horizon (perhaps created by myself), in the near-term until at least roughly 2015, US citizens may be able to keep under $10,000 in cash off the radar in a foreign account with a country that as of yet still has some bank secrecy. A GAO report explains why in 2015 the pressure from the US government will increase to force foreign banks (even those with bank secrecy laws) to report your account(s), although perhaps this has been delayed to 2017. Already for example, the US can obtain information on a specific account in most countries with bank secrecy, if they have a specific name or account number and a justified suspicion of tax avoidance.

I just learned today that the total amount of foreign accounts must not reach nor exceed $10,000 on any given statement period as follows.

http://www.nestmann.com/appeals-court-weakens-willfulness-defense-in-failure-to-file-foreign-account-reporting-forms/

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Should you have any concerns if you have an account under $10,000

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Bob, if the aggregate total of all offshore accounts never exceeds $10,000 in a given year, you don’t need to report the existence of the account(s) to the IRS or Treasury, although you still need to report and pay tax on any income generated.

http://www.onlinepokerfaq.com/guide/tax-fbar-90221.html

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In addition to filing this form [Treasury form 90-22.1: Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts] with the Treasury Department, you may need to declare the foreign accounts on your US tax return. The IRS instructions for Schedule B, line 7 say:

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Check the "Yes" box on line 7a if either 1 or 2 next applies.

1. You own more than 50% of the stock in any corporation that owns one or more foreign bank accounts.

2. At any time during the year you had an interest in or signature or other authority over a financial account in a foreign country (such as a bank account, securities account, or other financial account).

The instructions go on to note an exception in the case of small accounts:

Exceptions. Check the "No" box if any of the following applies to you.

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The combined value of the accounts was $10,000 or less during the whole year.

(Remember: This page gives you pointers to information that may help you understand US Treasury regulations and tax law. We do not give you legal or tax advice. It is up to you to understand the law and file the correct forms. If you need advice you must see a professional.)

AnonyMint

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As far as I know, economists widely have failed to emphasize the critical role derivatives are playing in keeping the west locked into ZIRP and bail-ins versus write-down of the lenders. Thus instead of a quick collapse and reset with ensuing quick recovery, as what occurred in Iceland or the USA after 1919, these derivatives have conflated the sovereign bonds with the lenders to real-estate, thus insuring any write-down would be apocalyptically spread on to retirement plans. The derivatives along with nearly retired boomer demographic bulge, are the main factors of social capital looking forward for the west.

Btw, bail-ins are socialist because the savers pay for the mistakes of the lenders and borrowers (and derivative gamblers), but this is inherent in fractional reserve banking.

Michael raised a very important concept by introducing social capital. Now let's get real about it. I wish I could read some prominent economists face the reality that the West can't escape with write-downs, and thus there won't be any break from Euro either (which I published a prediction on nearly 2 years ago). This will be a 26 year catastrophe. And it happens every 78 years in recorded history, at least since we emerged from the Roman Dark Age. Because demographics drives economics. Twenty-six years is how long it takes a human to become mature and ready to take over responsibility and become a major factor in the work force and start a family.

The west has to wait 26 years from 2007, when the boomers were 52, for them to die off at age 78. And for the generation born in 2007 to mature and be ready to compete with Asia in the robotic and automation revolution which will becoming a significant sector of the global economy by then (2033).

AnonyMint

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http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-23978

Andao,

Quote

And of course you’re talking about a banking system which is entirely government run, and where property cannot be purchased, only leased. I’m not sure how you can get more socialist than that.

Ditto the western banking system in reality, and especially once all the derivatives and liabilities in the system are factored in and the system has reset to (as I postulated in reply to illumined downthread). Fractional reserve banking systems are inherently socialist over time until the financial system resets with write-downs.

Leasing property is not necessarily socialist. Private property rights in the west are somewhat of an illusion due to the false high valuations by pulling demand forward 30 years with debt, high insurance payments, rising property taxes as states are bankrupt. The western real estate has not bottomed. I expect the gold-to-house ratio to increase another order-of-magnitude!

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What is the limit on taking USD out of the US vs RMB out of China? Obviously there is a huge difference when you are talking capital controls.

You cherry picked foreign exchange. Yet if we compare controls on exporters, I bet the USA is much more socialist with labor laws, export restrictions, and higher taxes.

Quote

As far as I know, there’s no such thing as a private hospital in China (unless you’re looking at plastic surgery/dental). I for one have never been to a private practice, nor have I ever seen one.

China may be trying to keep the national cost on health care low, so it has a more competitive economy for exporting. As it shifts to a consumer economy, the priority will shift to the advantage that allowing more spending on health care, enables greater security and consumer spending of savings.

What I am saying is that when global exports crater circa 2016, China will undergo a radical and rapid transformation. The pent up demand and capacity for this change is ready. Whereas, the west doesn't have any capacity to adapt after 2016.

You overemphasize lack of interest of the Chinese to research some obscure facts about history. The main priority of Chinese today is to earn money, so they can buy a house, car, and get married. On that front, they know they are not [entirely] free and are eager to gain more capitalism.

AnonyMint

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philipkdick,

I agree, and I am not downbeat. I see the political reality for what it is and this presents an enormous opportunity as well.

Thanks for defending me against that dolt, but it is good that there are many like him, so it means those of us who are knowledgeable can mine more coins in the coming better bitcoin alternative, before the rest figure it out.

I will repeat that the most important demand for decentralized digital currency is going to come from westerners escaping confiscation starting right about now, since EU is about to codify bail-in confiscation for all nations. Gold won't help that much, because you won't be able to flee to any where that it can be spent without a confiscation apparatus.

It won't be difficult to buy Bitcoins, but the government will know who owns which Bitcoins, due to the need to provide ID at the exchange and Europe will soon require this too as the USA and Canada already do. Later the government can "clawback" (as was done in the MF Global case to those who withdrew before the fiasco!) all those who moved money out of bank accounts and confiscate Bitcoins, including pressuring every person downchain to reveal who they spent to.

Thus the key features that need to be added to a better alternative to Bitcoin are:

* true anonymity of the blockchain (see link upthread on how to do it in decentralized way without needing to trust a laundering service which could be regulated)

* ASIC-resistant mining

People are going to need to be able to source hardware for mining easily in order to remain anonymous when obtaining coins without going through exchanges. ASICs are not easily sourceable, i.e. I can't walk in and pay cash some where nearby, nor buy used hardware with cash from my local area.

The list of the current alternatives to Bitcoin, none of which do both of the above:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/list-of-all-cryptocoins-134179
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/List_of_alternative_cryptocurrencies

I would also like to add the features:

* eliminate the 10 minute transaction delay with option escrow deposit guarantee

* mandatory tx fees to incentivize including transactions in blocks

* perpetual debasement (and thus mining) similar to gold

sabahgamemaker

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Quote from: philipkdick on June 23, 2013, 01:56:24 AM

Quote from: sabahgamemaker on June 23, 2013, 12:40:49 AM

All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior Cheesy

Yeah but you are stupid , so how do we fix that ?

The only way I see is for you to get more education , or something else has to shift in the environment .

I.e we have to become more ignorant so as to make you appear more knowledgeable ?

It's an age old problem.

Tut tut, another sheeple trying to sound smart by throwing sticks and stones, using convoluted words to mask his agenda, roflol Cheesy

philipkdick

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Quote from: sabahgamemaker on June 23, 2013, 12:40:49 AM

All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior Cheesy

Yeah but you are stupid , so how do we fix that ?

The only way I see is for you to get more education , or something else has to shift in the environment .

I.e we have to become more ignorant so as to make you appear more knowledgeable ?

It's an age old problem.

sabahgamemaker

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All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior Cheesy

philipkdick

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Can I just add anonymint ,

Dont be too negative on all of this , you let it get you down , you think highly , but .

I can assure you , government agencies have no innovation , they sub innovation out.

The only control is to the degree that the wealth that is held in what format is accepted or acceptable.

The evolution of currency can not be stopped , and the only answer is physical human war.

But when the numbers are run , it comes up a big no go. So who's going to support it ?

Nations need generals to organize wars , and when generals get fired and become yes men , that only makes the numbers look worse .

So what to do ?

The economic world many people knew ended in 08 , probably earlier . But the world did not .

philipkdick

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Quote from: AnonyMint on June 22, 2013, 04:40:15 AM

Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

the power that any " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

I already wrote the same in No Money Exists Without the Majority:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/no-money-exists-without-the-majority-226033

Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve currency that seems to have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

Indeed there will be a massive confiscation of wealth in the west as I explained in the prior several posts.

Some of that wealth will escape into precious metals and autonomous digital currencies.

If that is significant enough, i.e. if most of the remaining real savings is in autonomous digital currencies, the government will embrace it and co-opt it to the extent they technically can. I am not saying that will necessarily be the case.

Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

I like the objective of your essay , but you give too much credibility to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay but it's not a complex effect , and simple to explain .

As my prior few posts explained, I give credibility to demographics. Let me quote myself from another blog:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4955&cpage=1#comment-403445

Quote

> … the International Plot to take away our Vital Bodily Fluids!

The plot is demographic politics and opaque denial of the impossibility of perpetual motion.

Then the differences of opinion that you and I have are fairly minor .

You seem to understand economics , congrats , and I mean that , most people can not.

This is mostly due to their information environment.

AnonyMint

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http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-24051

illumined,

It is very difficult to make the depositors whole, because this is a highly leveraged fractional reserve system (e.g. I've read the Spanish banks are leveraged 26-to-1), and worse yet there are all these up to a $quadrillion of sovereign bond interest rate derivatives gambling bets effectively used as reserves (since Tier 1 capital are sovereign bonds), thus leveraging the western financial system into the stratosphere.

We have to hit the reset button on the entire western financial system. There are two ways to do this. The slow way which allows increasing the debt and continuing to misallocate capital. Or the fast way of declaring everything 0, and recapitalizing a new system.

So far, Japan and the west have chosen the slow way of continuing interest payments and ZIRP to keep the derivatives whole, with Japan in a 23 year decline. If the West continues down the slow way, it will be a global contagion. The west must continue down the slow way, because the boomers are too old to gain from a quick reset, they would not be competitive with Asia given a lack of youth in the west.

Asia will break away and do its own quicker reset once this global contagion takes down global exports. Japan is 3 years from the 26 year downturn bottom expected by the repeating 78 year cycle.

AnonyMint

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Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

the power that any " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

I already wrote the same in No Money Exists Without the Majority:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/no-money-exists-without-the-majority-226033

Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve currency that seems to have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

Indeed there will be a massive confiscation of wealth in the west as I explained in the prior several posts.

Some of that wealth will escape into precious metals and autonomous digital currencies.

If that is significant enough, i.e. if most of the remaining real savings is in autonomous digital currencies, the government will embrace it and co-opt it to the extent they technically can. I am not saying that will necessarily be the case.

Quote from: philipkdick on June 21, 2013, 12:42:57 PM

I like the objective of your essay , but you give too much credibility to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay but it's not a complex effect , and simple to explain .

As my prior few posts explained, I give credibility to demographics. Let me quote myself from another blog:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4955&cpage=1#comment-403445

Quote

> … the International Plot to take away our Vital Bodily Fluids!

The plot is demographic politics and opaque denial of the impossibility of perpetual motion.

AnonyMint

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Andao, finally got back to my desktop computer where I can type properly.

You cited the arrest of some activists in China and made the conclusion that this is not a "big improvement". How can you ignore the progress China has made on moving away from the totalitarianism of the cultural revolution, Great Leap forward, and the Tiananmen Square, to the widespread capitalism and freedom today? Of course, there are still some serious obstacles, but to argue there has been no big improvement is absurd.

Also that there exists activists who were emboldened by hope generated by the Premiere's policy statements, and that they were not immediately shot, is another indicator of how far China has come. China appears to be in the mode now of increasing tolerance, while maintaining suppression of a political spark that could send the whole thing spiraling out-of-control. I don't expect the leadership to succeed in a gradual transition from the remnants of communism to more free markets, because this last step (towards greater consumer share of the economy and foreign exchange freedom-of-capital for the middle class) requires removing the power of the 200 families that rule China. So unless there can be found a way for these 200 to continue to concentrate wealth and power, and open the economy more, then eventually there will be a Minsky moment, and another step forward in change similar to Tiananmen Square. Transitions occur in stages, as the economics and demographics overpower the stasis.

I think we need to consider the Asian culture of "face" when separating what the people on the street say when quoted, and what they actually do. Sure they play the "who you know" political favors game, because for now that is one of the primary means to do capitalism and succeed within the system which is still held back by the power of the Communist Party. But underlying this, the thoughts of the people are more Confucianist than Communist, and they want capitalism in their business activities. My perception is they want socialism to the extent that it creates a level playing field for eliminating evils of society. Since socialism does exactly the opposite due to the Olsen effect, then as the next economic crisis hits, they will grow more and more aware of their closer attachment to Confuscianism over a failed communist ideology which serves no purpose in their daily business lives as they strive to maximize wealth and security within their Confucianist core value system.

Their result will be different than the Europe or the USA to the extent their core culture is different (from Christianity, and the western culture of always moving forward man can improve upon nature versus Asian culture of cycles and repeating wisdom with nature in control).

The key point is that when the Minsky moment comes China won't have a majority of the population over 60 and unable to do anything but demand the government sequester wealth to sustain them. China will have a majority of the population in the 20 and 40 age brackets, thus able to roll up their sleeves and refocus energies on new markets after the fixed capital investment bubble has burst. And the rest of Asia is in proximity with the majority of the population in the working age 20s bracket.

Whereas the west is now burdened by the result of massive use of birth control and the bulge in births due to returning soldiers from World War 2, thus now not having sufficient youth to vote out the stasis of sequesting wealth from savers and transferring it to maintaining the increasing debt.

The freedom that westerners have is very fragile, because it only exists to the extent is does not conflict with the need of the boomers to sequester wealth to maintain their quality of life. In southern Europe, we see the youth unemployment is double the adults, as the boomers vote to sustain the debts and minimize effects on themselves.

AnonyMint

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Quote from: AnonyMint on June 21, 2013, 11:46:42 AM

I was challenged again and rebutted again. See link in prior post for link to discussion.

Andao,

I have a moment to compose a hopefully more cogent rebuttal. This will continue on from the rebuttal I submitted a couple of hours ago.

I am wondering if you don't read carefully, or if I don't write coherently. For example, I wrote previously that Chinese are allowed to speak against the government, e.g. making a comment in a social network (if it is not censored) or at home, but they are not allowed to organize or become activists. Let me make it more clear. Chinese are allowed to express their personal opinion, but not allowed to form movements that threaten the power of the Communist Party (which I stated already in my prior comment to which you are replying).

In the West we are allowed to talk and organize politically, but this is pointless as the politics is already determined by the fact that the majority of voters are boomers and they will not tolerate a quick and sharp economic collapse the accompanies the defaults from write-down of the debt. But as Michael explained in an upthread comment about Japan, not writing-down the debt (i.e. not defaulting on the lenders) means a long-drawn out period of economic stagnation and decline (23 years thus far in Japan). Without a write-down, the capital stays locked up in interest payments and centralized amongst those who have proven they don't know how to allocate capital. Thus capital does not move to the most efficient, and thus the economy stagnates and declines.

I hope you understand that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) causes capital to accumulate in the least risky sovereign bonds (e.g. USA, Germany) for safety, as well to speculation and emerging markets to seek yield. Thus ZIRP drives capital away from productive investment to bubbles. Precisely now we have huge dollar bond issues in developing countries funding a bubble in condos and fixed capital infrastructure. This means the developing world is short the dollar, as a Michael's past blog on globalization predicts, this capital inflow will reverse when the Minsky moment hits the West. In fact, you will see a huge rise in the dollar soon through 2016, as capital flees Europe (since Europe is moving rapidly towards capital controls and bail-in form of confiscation). Armstrong had predicted this and this is why we all (following Armstrong) had the knowledge to sell gold before the recent crash of gold.

This is a dead-cat bounce for the dollar and US real estate, being driven by capital in flows some of which is seeking a safe haven and then speculators seeing the trend and following it to chase yield.

Also potential home buyers in the USA are rushing to buy as interest rates rise (California house prices up +25% in past months), because the Fed sees the bubble forming and is talking about tapering down on QE. Armstrong predicted this too, so I was expecting it.

...this will be continued in the next comment...

...continuing from prior comment...

Indeed the western media appeases the rage of the citizens with talk, but the action is all increasingly socialism. In my prior reply, I forgot to mention France already imposing capital controls and chasing away business with severe taxes and "do not fire" labor laws & regulations, and in the USA we have Obamacare which is destroying business. I already mention ZIRP which is a socialization of debt instead of a write-down of the lenders.

Whereas, China doesn't allow organization of dissent, and the reason is because the real economy is moving more and more capitalist and so there is no political vested interest that can hold up the Communist Party once the wildfire is lit. Thus they must prevent the spark, but the Minsky moment will provide that spark and then it will be dismantled rapidly. Whereas the West politically and economically can't reform because of the demographics can not allow it. Thus the West will devolve into a horrific outcome of wealth confiscation when the Minsky moment occurs (roughly circa 2016).

The privatization and discovery of information will spread very quickly in China after the Minsky moment because there is nothing stopping it other than the Chinese military. The people are young and will adapt quickly because in reality they are moving more to capitalism and back to their core values of Confucianism every day.

philipkdick

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Quote from: mobodick on May 18, 2013, 02:58:50 AM

Quote from: AnonyMint on May 18, 2013, 02:05:16 AM

End of factories (and human-labor for them):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=q9t68cMAPgA

Sorry to say, but i was a bit disappointed by this guy.
He royally underestimates the disruptive power of the technology he describes.
The 'razor and holder' model will be useless for 3D printers. It is already eating itself up as 3D printers are becoming more capable of replicating teir own parts. Even better, these desigs are open open source.
This guy just doesn't see the real potential of 3D printers and the way the world will be changed by them. He clearly does not get the concept that these devices are being designed for the specific purpose of replicating themselfs. Once that is done there will only be a thin layer of opportunity to make money from it and you will be competeing with the biggest open source community ever.

Don't 100 % agree but +1

philipkdick

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 29, 2013, 01:05:42 PM

Quote from: GotBitCoins on March 29, 2013, 12:04:58 PM

Re: Can the government shut down BitCoin?

Yes...

I know the standard answer... - the government can't do nothing about BitCoin, it's a peer-2-peer thing, and it shall survive just like bit-torrent survived no matter what, and they will have to shut the internet in order to shut down bitcoin....

You are expecting the less likely threat, because the power elite don't shutdown what is popular, they find a way to own it.

The bigger threat is the government will not shut it down, but rather embrace, help it grow, and control it so they can turn off your ability to eat individually if they don't like you:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-the-digital-kill-switch-160612

Bitcoin is diabolical, but only an expert can see it.

Hi you might want to call me an "expert" and I completely agree with most of the statements in the topic, but however I think you are giving too much credit to government agencies , They can and will be quite efficient , but not generally before the fact , you seem to be inclined to believe that bitcoin , was a "strawman" system , yet there is evidence of the most basic type against that , but then in other ways that " evidence" could be seen as planted .

But that aside , let's instead look at results .

The result amoung other things of the "bitcoin" effect is that there seems to be an evolution that has kicked into gear , and also with that , literally the unpredictable affection of run on multidimensional information.

An economy has grown on its own , and disconnected itself from bitcoin.

That is happening every day .

Now remember I said I was an expert ?

You will likely say that all other cryptocurrency is priced back to BTC , so it's now a quasi " reserve" for these other cryptocurrency.

So goes bitcoin so goes cryptocurrency ? I really very much doubt that , the power that any " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve currency that seems to have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

I like the objective of your essay , but you give too much credibility to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite "

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay but it's not a complex effect , and simple to explain .

Topic: Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch - page 5. (Read 55245 times)