First, this does not include private capital of bitcoinica and since have robbed them of their errors, are private funds that must suffer the 40k btc / usd, not our deposits. I don't understand why pay 50% and less than a reduction to 30%
Second, is the third of the money claimed?, or a third of the 50% they were paying? Because it is very different
You're assuming that Bitcoinica has any capital reserves, which is not the case if what Zhou has been saying all along is true - which is that Tihan injected his own money to cover the losses from the Linode hack and further injected some funds to cover some of the losses from the May intrusion. Those injections of funds were purely to cover losses. Zhou was quite clear that without that money Bitcoinica did not have enough assets to settle the total amount owed after the May intrusion.
It sounds like a forced reduction of 30%, which means that people would receive a total of 70% of what they are owed (so anyone who has already received 50% would get another 20% when everything has been processed). Personally, at this stage of the game I wouldn't believe any numbers which aren't determined and verified by an independent auditor.
Found this gem by Tihan elsewhere.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4239859