Topic: BitcoinOrama Report on the KnCminer/OrSoC Open-day Mon 10/06/13 (Stockholm) - page 15. (Read 55747 times)

If mining is an unprofitable endeavour for the average Joe there will be no decentralized mining . People just cannot afford to lose money in the world we live in. ASIC mining poses a very real threat to the network decentralization, and that's why Scrypt based coins have been developed and Avalon says that they always wanted to go open source and sell chips only.

No that's the greed in mining. The point is to distribute the network fairly away from few centrally dominant sources and process the transactions throughout the network that make the currency viable...

Then it's just more profitable to simply buy BTC with your fiat and not miners. The point in mining is to get more BTC for your fiat than simply buying BTC on the market.

I don't think we'll even notice when they're gone.

+1

Well there will be a small decrease from gpu miners jumping ship and the low hashing ascis. Also the other sha coins will distrubute the load a bit, but the only way any1 is going to make a few $ is if the price of btc increases which is the big unknown in the whole equation.

That would give you a ROI of 3-4 months at current exchange rate, that's pretty normal. However, there is no reason the difficulty won't keep on rising and if it rises at a continued 25-30% rate, they'll never make ROI (but neither will anyone buying in September/October unless there is a new generation of ASICs with better performance and energy consumption).

With 1686TH/s on the network a 350GHs Jupiter will generate 0.7BTC per daily. That would have been an awful investment.

I think some of this comments can best be on mining speculation board/thread

I think Acisminer will be 500+TH.

any idea what the TH will be in November / dec  2013 ?

is there a link someware to bitcoin hashrate  by end of year predictions ?


my guess:
bfl current orders  ~ 400 Th -- Avalon chips ~ 300 TH --- KnC ~350 TH  ---- Asicminer ~ 100 TH --- BFL chips~ 400 TH
+ Current network ~ 136 TH  = about 1686 TH

ASIC manufacturers, namely BFL and KnC (though also Avalon at one point), all utilized BitPay (or similar service) for Bitcoin based transactions. What this means is that those companies never saw/received a coin...it was instantly converted to USD (or whatever other currency) at the market rate at the time of purchase.
Bitcoins --> BitPay --> converted to cash --> Manufacturer is paid (and BitPay takes a cut).

Ya, that's a really good point. 

All these ASIC developers/manufacturers are asking for and accepting payment in Bitcoin, but they still have to convert those bitcoins into fiat currency to pay their vendors.  Theoretically, if everyone paid KnCMiner in Bitcoins -- approximately $7 million so far -- shouldn't we start seeing some pretty large BTC sell orders on MtGox soon?

This is simply not true... and even if it was, it would be disastrous to bitcoin long term considering all you have at that point is an exclusive club where the only persons who have access to the tools of the trade are those that had got into the mining market at ground level and have a hoard of bitcoin. Meanwhile these companies producing their mining products are reliant on third-party vendors to exchange their bitcoin to pay the vendors that only accept local currency for the raw material needed to make the finished products. This is NOT good for business.

This practice is just not tenable and you can see that in the moves that most of the major ASIC manufacturers are making towards including PayPal's shitty service into their payment options (ie. BFL, Terrahash, KNCMiner) because they know that people that weren't in the game before are already scared as it is moving into a highly volatile new currency let alone, the promise of generating it, and will need a comfortable entry point into the market in order to have any chance of growth.

Sure you can counter argue the use of Mt.Gox and other exchanges are there to serve as intermediaries but the reality is people are lazy, scared, and resistant to change... And the easier you make for them to enter into the market, the more sustainable the growth and confidence in it will be long term. The companies know/are learning this and is one of the best chances that Bitcoin has to succeed.

Even current ASIC manufacturers make some organization like OPEC, due to there are hidden players developing ASICs mining for themselves, that does not work either. One of the most important mission of ASIC miner manufacturers is to promote the bitcoin-only sale to support the price of bitcoin (hence their own income)

How do you know it was far less than they expected?


I'm sure they have surpassed 7 million USD by this point.  Does anyone have the actual sales numbers yet?


So, you are thinking that KnC miners will ruin the BTC network? 

There are so many factors to consider:  Will KnC be able to deliver by September?  Who else will flood the market with ASICs before KnC gets their products delivered?  Where will the exchange-to-BTC rate be in September ... what if the exchange rate drops back down to 5 USD per BTC?  How will this flood of ASICs affect us little guys who are mining for only pennies a day?

On the other hand, could this be a really good thing for the Bitcoin economy?  Will the Bitcoin economy become stronger, more effective, efficient and resilient, with this increased flooding of ASICs on the market? 

flv is a container, not a codec.
.mov is also a container only and inside it can be mjpeg (motion jpeg a series of photos) or some other codec.

There is a utility on sourceforge named mov2mpeg or something like that...
no, I believe it had the words mov, 2, mp4 in the name... I can not tell you as it is on a crashed computer.


As for the KnC miner numbers, they totally, utterly had a plan of flooding the market with something that may be a collective 30% saturation. The numbers sold by the preorders were far less than what they expected to sell and the expenses for this project will run into 4 to 6 million USD when we count their engineering work too. So selling KnC miners at least to a break-even point and NOT ruining the BTC network seems like an impossible task.

ASIC mining is a very particular beast with very special characteristics. If you want your customers to achieve ROI, you cannot just flood the network as quick as possible. That's why the "first 500 batch get their unit first" approach makes some sense, while the "we can push hundreds of units daily and everybody will receive them almost at the same time" is a kinda worring approach from a preorder customer point of view.

I expect a 2011-like situation, when we had a "mining bubble" that deflated because it wasn't profitable to mine any more. I see the very same situation approaching very fast, the absolute winners have been the ASICminer shareholders and Avalon batch #1 customers, batch #2 will ROI and #3 will breakeven, and I'm afraid that the rest (including BFL customers) will be the "bagholders".

I may be mistaken, but I would appreciate some figures from KnC regarding how many THs they plan to sell, and how fast. As I said earlier this is a very "special" business, if they sell too many units too fast their customers won't achieve ROI unless they hold their mined coins till the exchange rate goes x10, and in that case their profit would have been bigger if they just bought BTC instead of buying KnC miners.

Making closed and limited batches is the best way to try to protect your customers investment in this business.

1/2 a BTC per day?!  That's what worries me, especially for those of us mining without Jupiters and Saturns.

Ok, so I think it was a conflict between the formatting of the USB thumb drive not accepting the video files. The Mac is a Macbook Air and there just isn't enough space for me to play with 1.5 gigs of video currently.

So I've taken the iPhone to another PC (not mine) and the files play fine. They uploaded to YouTube as .MOV fine.

Daggeteo wanted to check I hadn't recorded anything sensitive from his pool data, so he gets first view. Personally I see nothing amiss. I almost stumble in on him typing his password which was amusing, aside from that there isn't an issue. He's briefly on screen for a millisecond, so his choice...nothing distressing or embarrassing.

Getting audio files off the iPhone is another headache entirely.

So lucky Daggeteo recorded audio separately. Mine is clearer, but anything over 8 minutes I cannot email. In iTunes I can see two out of the three voice memo in the 'on my iPhone' tab, click sync voice mails, nothing. Apprehensive to try pairing this with another computer as everyone I know has experienced total loss of all music and playlists doing this. Not risking loosing the audio. Incidentally the file that doesn't show on the computer, all though present on my iPhone, doesn't play on my iPhone. It was about 40 minutes long and it was the recording that stopped unannounced during the open-day. The other two files play uninterrupted. So again, lucky Daggeteo had a recording device present! There are additional bits on mine Daggeteo's doesn't have, but I need to have my iPhone plugged into a paired device to transcript. Joy...

This faffing around has cost me time, and is the reason there's been some delay. I have to head out to work now, if Daggeteo can give me a heads up by tomorrow. I shall share the video...

For what it's worth Apple has always been problematic with sharing large recordings made on iOS devices, they really need to address this!

On the plus side...it's in 1080p!!