Topic: Bitcoin's Dystopian Future - page 8. (Read 28242 times)

You forget that the price of stock is lowerbound and selling bellow or at the same value the merchand is taking a hit, and that hit gets bigger as time ticks. The only way for a merchant to stay in bussiness is to offload the risk to A) consumer by Preorder/prepay B) producer to delay payment until sold.
So if we have a C_onsumer, M_erchant, P_roducer, someone must accept the cost of depreciation Time. And here we only have the Shipping time, if you add Production Time, Return of Investment Time. You have simply stoped the economy.
I am talking on experience here. I live in F*** Greece, we are deflating for 4 years now. The only economists I know that think deflationary currency is a neat idea is Wolfgang schaeuble, and german banksters who sit on shitloads of Euros, You want to see the future of Bitcoin? look at Europe NOW.

Problem is that this experiment is not done "In Vitro" and wait and see doesnot apply.
Either Bitcoin community fixes bitcoin parameters, so as to stabilize it and make it work *for* the economy, or it will be done Without you.
Hodling on your bitcoins and wait until you can afford your private isle is very sensible, and most people would agree.

Yup. 

If the PC and consumer electronics industries could figure out how to adapt to a situation where stock is losing value relative to currency (BTW, bitcoin is appreciating, not depreciating) then other kinds of merchants in a bitcoin world should be able to adapt too.

It never ceases to amuse me that proponents of both anti and pro deflationary models are so convinced they are both right and that the other is stupid!  The beauty of the Bitcoin experiment is we may finally get to see which side turned out to have the valid arguments.  Centuries of economists arguing theory is about to come to an end as the experiment comes to fruition

Does anyone else find it funny that those convinced that customers will have a reduced incentive to spend deflationary money forget the seller of goods and services have an equally increased incentive to sell.  So won't we simply see the price change to reflect this and things carry on as always?  Same with stock.  The store will have the same disincentive pay for stock that is losing value (relative to depreciating deflating/appreciating* currency) as the supplier will be incentivised to sell his goods?  I kinda like that theory but truth is I don't know how it will turn out.  Fact is, neither do those who are convinced their arguments are correct!

Edit: Just read bitrider's response. Looks like we're thinking along the same lines re bitcoin as an experiment and absolutism

*Edit: I meant 'deflationary' but had written depreciating - thanks justusranvier for pointing it out

A great thought experiment. And all the absolutist replies make me smile. We are doing the experiment in real time, and there is no turning back. We are still very poor at predicting complex systems future states. Definitely worth thinking these things, and anticipating what we can, but we don't know how this will play out - just face the fact. Probably somewhere between utopian and dystopian - like always.

So if you Cross China, India (shutting down BTC), EU, USA taking over btc infrastructure, what is left? Sealand? sure the rest of the world can withstand a 51% attack.

USA and EU would propably rather shutdown Internet than lose control over Euro or Dollar. And please don't give me tha mesh crap radiowaves are regulated too, oh and they can be triangulated also.

1. Network effect (Cost of not entering the network)
2. You miss the point (So it's not ok for banks to create new coins following protocol rules but it's ok for you to do following bitcoin protocol rules)
3. Network effect/missing the point (cost of exiting the network is bigger than 1)
4. What will producers do when none is willing to ship the goods from producer to consumer?

You all miss the point about what deflation really means. Forget the consumer's view where you just spend your precious coins only when absolutely want/have to. Or the prime producers view. Think about it from the merchants view, who has stocked up goods, or the various processors who still wait materials to arive in their processing pipeline and see that time works against them.
Then you all going to go nagging about how shity preorder, prepay is, and that you still have not get what you bought for, and why on earth vendors don't stock goods in advance, heellloooo because of Deflation maybe?

1) Bitcoin will most likely always be voluntary. If you volunteer to partake in Bitcoin you transfer wealth to get in, if this accelerates because people benefit it will look similar to a infection, spreading in an unhealthy host.

2) Bitcoin doesn't come out of thin air, they can only be issued. They are only issued to those who agree with the protocol, and then provided work to secure it, Bitcoins are issued as part of the protocol. They are backed by whatever you and I are willing to exchange for them.

3) Bitcoin is voluntary don't like it don't use it. Average citizens don't have that choice with fiat.

4) I don't want to regulate a free market, what I think is good fore everyone is irrelevant, my point is if you save, wealth will erode from the unproductive in society and go to the producers, this is no Dystopian Future. Deflection will help prioritize investment with humanities needs as apposed to what we think we need.

I think you are overestimating the size of bitcoin infrastructure in your country comparing to world-wide infrastructure.

Like mild deflation would stop people from wanting that new tech and car. Right 

The deflationary arguments are not warranted imo. I would actually spend more. knowing that I can buy more tomorrow without need to have as much in nominal terms.


We are so brainwashed into believing that a deflationary system cant work because we have been drilled with/by the current interests. The current system is on the brink of collapse. Our govts ARE at the level of Zimbabwe inflation but it's not in the units that you can hold in your hand.... Bailouts,  QE and the fact that govts are pretty much doing this in parity makes it a little less visible....

Deflation has been used as a scapegoat at every opportunity of the current failures. The inflationary system is only in place because it is necessitated by an independent central banking system as a business model. The inflationary systems have only been in place since the plans to create private central banks were thought up.

Bitcoin's deflationary quality if unchanged will bring Trade to a halt, that's basic economics, and independent of how many decimal places can exist in a number. Nobody in his right state of mind wants Trade to get hurt. So before that happens, National Security will kick in and Patends, Licences and  bitcoin infrastructure will be seized and protocol will be changed.
IE I see the FBI raid the biggest pools and alter the miner to ignore transactions that dont divert fees to a FED wallet, thats all they have to do, not bureucratic shit, no forms, no checks, just a hardcoded VAT. More countries will follow and boundaries will be raised before you know it. Effectively splitting the transaction tree into a forest, without hurting the blockchain.

1. virus <> voluntary
2. fractional reserve is money out of thin air, explain how bitcoin differs
3. just like greece can exit euro, that easy
4. if you follow the story of asic manufacturing you will see what deflation means to a manufacturing process.

The OP has an investigated his imagination in a Dystopian Future, and used little creativity to solve problems.

1) Bitcoin is more like a voluntary wealth redistribution virus (don't use it if you think it is like rat poison)
2) Bitcoin is more likely a bankers nightmare, no fractional reserve banking.
3) if it ever stops serving the majority, switch to an aultcoin, or start one that is created on a normal distribution curve as apposed to the step function that rewords early adopters disproportionately.
4) you can always erode the wealth of the ultra rich by saving (the rich can only earn by providing value to encourage you to spend) as apposed to saving in fiat you wealth is eroded by inflation that benefits the 1% who borrow new money into existences mechanize production or distribution thus robbing you of productivity in the now.

OP's warning is on the point. We don't have the luxury not to take proactive action to solve the early adopter problem, It is not for the next generation to think it through, attitude I have seen in many posts, or deal with the problems as the come along, it must be solved yesterday.

As it stands Bitcoin is Capitalism at its purest form, you have Money, and Machines that Generates Money, plus a cartel that gatekeeps transactions: a Banker's wet dream. Which is all that most people here secretly cove, you want to overthrow the financial system only to take it's place. It is the last attempt of Capitalism to recreate itself into the new world. 1% of people hold 99% of worlds wealth and bitcoin will change that? of course not, it will just further the divide even in the 1%. I guess 3rd world is toast for good.

We (the rest) don't care if early adopters play nice and consider to donate, invest, or be good with their wealth. It is not their place/right to make these decisions. Democracy is not run on a geek circle. You are going to need the full support of the population to withstand the backlash/takeover of the Establishment, and the attitude "Well I was an early adopter, its only fair to be filthy rich" will not help.

What should be done?
1. Satoshi should reveal himself.
2. Block reward must be opened to renegotiation.
3. Install a rolling invalidation of rewards/blocks on the blockchain, ie "forgeting" blocks, this will also help with database size.

2&3 will help with price stability as well as keep the economy rolling, as well as democratizing adoption

I think this will go the other-way, BTC/CC's will improve so many things. Most humans like to build things up, improve and care, and even the destructive tendency have an element creation and innovation.

For instance we are at the thin end of the wedge, and what do we have?

Satoshi Forrest, where was that even possible in that form before BTC?

Granted. My anology was more about everyone being on Facebook, or everyone buying and selling on eBay, because all their friends and family are on Facebook, or all the other buyers and sellers being on eBay thus giving you the best price. Network Effects.

This is possible in the same way that it's possible for there to be an infinite amount of Facebook and eBay clones, and eventually may be as possible as for there to be TCI/IP and Email clones.