Was this the right thread for discussing hands? Let me know if I need to move it.
here's a better one for next time:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/poker-talk-specifically-holdem-hands-and-or-strategy-5214582it's been dead for a couple weeks so i'm not surprised you didn't see it.
I want to ask about when to cut on an open ended straight. 1 card to go and I haven't hit it yet. there are a few outs but do I cut here and stop wasting money?
Imaginary hand 10c 9c Table: Jd 3h 8h Next: 5s
By now each round is costing money
What do people think?
I mean on a deeper level. Should I even be playing for straights at all? or are they just extra possibilities I should keep as a plan B ? Obv unless it flops.
this is a simplified take:
consider the overall odds of hitting your straight---when you flop an open-ended straight draw, the straight will complete something like 34% of the time by the river. after a blank turn, it's more like 17%.
in this situation, you also need to consider whether your opponent is on a heart flush draw. if he is playing the heart draw, your odds drop considerably, since a Qh or 7h could lose you the hand. that leaves you only 6 outs, making your odds to win after the flop about 26% and after the turn 13%. if you put him on the flush draw, pot control is very important.
determine the pot odds required to call. let's say it was a rainbow flop instead of 2 hearts, so your chances of hitting the nuts are around 34%. (it's actually slightly worse because of backdoor flush draw and paired board/full house possibilities but let's ignore that for now) that means if the winning pot will pay better than 2 to 1, you generally have proper odds to call. if you can see a cheap turn (either by checking or calling a small bet 1/3 pot size or less) then it makes sense to stay in the hand.
a more advanced approach would incorporate fold equity---the chances you can make your opponent fold based on semi-bluffing your draw, rather than passively calling. betting your draws increases your overall equity because the villain may fold, but puts more money at risk if he has a hand.
and also implied odds---the money you'll win if you hit one of your outs. if you hit your straight, you can probably extract more money out of your opponent. that's additional equity not captured by a pure pot odds analysis.
*edit* 98.1 Krill
*/edit*
nice!