Topic: BitDice.me - UPGRADED TO V3, MOVE YOUR STATS! - page 12. (Read 37945 times)

I'm a bit confused with how the leverage in this site works...


Sorry if this question has been asked before...  If I use 10x kelly, my 1 BTC is calculated as *a virtual 10 BTC* rite?
What happen if, for example the site lose 20% of its bankroll in a single bet? Which make my 10 BTC drop to 8 BTC? Remember that my actual investment is only 1 BTC?

Yes. I already made that same conclusion before your "attack" at me:

I am not affiliated with PRC in any way, and even though I am a long-time investor there, I have serious interest to invest some at BitDice.

I have explained my reasoning very clear and made clear that I agree it is a great way to prevent the risk of a site admin running off with coins. I just said I think small investors should "enjoy" that same minimum risk. Is that really so crazy to suggest?

I know it's correct by math etc and I am not saying the two 10x investors are not really willing to invest a lot. I am just saying big investors only have to risk 10% of their potential invest funds on your site. And small investors 100% (and are actually forced to put relatively bigger amounts since the "virtual BR" is so big.) IMO that is not exactly fair, but nvm. I guess dooglus was right :X

Well that's why I ask for solvency proof for investors They need to sign a wallet with at least 50-100BTC to be able to set the kelly level. So basically it's so-called fair for other investors as everyone know that he HAS that money and it's the same as just invest e.g. 3000BTC.

That would be their own decision though, and since you allow gambling too.. I assume you don't mind letting people risk losing their money :p It would be a problem if a big whale comes by and kills the max profit, but that would already happen now too. (probably worse if everyone has 10x though)

Yes, but now it only solves that problem for big investors and make small investors like me consider putting 5x more money than they are comfortable risking on the site. Personally I would probably not do it 10x but 5x btw. And if I would lose a big part of my initial investment I would really add some extra.

367.3924163495+28.6673326139 = 396 (around 394) seems to work out




Actually I am a bit surprised there are not that many investors. I might be the only/first one to bring this up, so perhaps it's not an issue for the other investors. In the end I don't care "that much", so not asking to change it just for me hehe. But I thought I would just bring it up as discussion point

Haha, thanks guys you are awesome

Yeap, that's the main problem here and I still in doubt about it. However to be more competitive it was a good decision. I'm thinking about allowing it to everyone, but I'm afraid for those who will risk with all what they have. And it will lead to effective 10xKelly to everyone. The main problem here is to solve investor-owner trust problem, not to win more.

Micky I still have about 147BTC invested and I'm on 1xKelly.

NLNico here's the list of all invested amounts (without 10% comm. deduction) with kelly level:

367.3924163495 10
253.4563073815 1
148.2557997876 1
83.5546230389 1
66.1102598793 1
28.6673326139 10
5.1141123803 1
3.2542553590 1
2.0296332825 1
1.4794212154 1
1.0220074818 1
1.0140045259 1
1.0047917310 1
1.0045746152 1
0.5035725695 1
0.3190796886 1
0.2735911977 1
0.1728952139 1
0.1170230495 1
0.1016145104 1
0.1014636243 1
0.1011775572 1
0.1005851864 1
0.0996067776 1
0.0660439790 1
0.0367538105 1
0.0301239429 1
0.0280827469 1
0.0121386886 1
0.0108766819 1
0.0101681923 1
0.0101301148 1
0.0017397253 1
0.0010188618 1
0.0001002367 1
0.0001000266 1
0.0000668367 1
0.0000119247 1
0.0000026772 1
0.0000008235 1
0.0000007285 1
0.0000006842 1
0.0000005660 1
0.0000005245 1
0.0000004289 1
0.0000004114 1
0.0000003580 1
0.0000000388 1
0.0000000084 1

Thanks to NLNico and Dooglus for breaking this down.  I remember when WoW came into the chat and asked for this.  I now see the angle for why he was so insistent that Alex do this.

I think the small investors are important in this case because it is the non-leveraged investors that are providing the stability for the max bet amount.  If all investors were at x10 then the max bet would fluctuate dramatically as whales won or lost.

Dooglus I know you often commented that you had a lot of small investors and more investment than you needed, I wonder if bitdice.me will ever get to that point and then not need to offer this in order to have the largest max bet, especially given the cut back over on primedice.

Thanks to you both again.

there is no minimum deposit

only minimum bet

minimum bet is 1000satoshi

How much is the minimum deposit here?

Hi Mate,

AFAIK, Alex is the owner and he has divested some part of his investment because of one Huge whale who goes by the name of Wow on the site. He is the one people are referring to right now. Ofc, it is speculative in nature and Alex maybe using an Alt, but just the style of chatting is quite different which leads me to believe that they are two separate people. Good luck with your investment in case you decide to do so again!

I invested on this site once for a while, got some little profit out of it. Happy to know that they put up the right numberr. I guess those whale investor is the owner himself?

Nice detective work. I didn't pay close attention, but am happy to believe that you made sure everything checks out.

The whale investor effectively has 3949 BTC in the bankroll. He keeps most of it under his own control, but risks as if he had the whole amount invested. If a whale player comes along and wins a bunch, the whale investor quickly loses his whole deposit. That's why he gets the lion's share of the profits.

You can go back through the old "JD Investor" thread and see us discussing exactly this situation. I ended up not allowing investors to use leverage like this, because I was concerned it would allow rich investors to dominate the bankroll without taking on the accompanying counterparty risk. When the small investors figure out they're getting a poor deal, they'll either pull out, or increase their leverage too (I was imagining that would be a feature available to all, not just those with >100 BTC) - neither of which is good for them.

As for whether it's silly, I guess the site is happy, because they can say "we have the biggest max profit of any BTC dice site", and I expect the whale investor is happy, because he's getting most of the profits. The only people who might not be happy are the smaller investors. But I guess the site can do without those anyway?

I will try this site as well!

So I invested 1 bitcoin and was wondering how much the "virtual 1x kelly bankroll" was. Since you need at least 100 bitcoins invested for the special 10x kelly and I know there was a guy with 300 on 10x - I kinda assumed he is the only one and the rest on 1x kelly.

So (x=BR of 1x investors, y=10x investor BR) with max profit:

x*0.01+y*0.1=45.120425
makes:
(45.120425-y*0.1)/0.01=x

And also for total BR:

957.952783 = x+y

With this you can solve it:

(45.120425-y*0.1)/0.01=957.952783-y
((45.120425-y*0.1)/0.01)+y=957.952783

y= 394.899
x= 957.952783-394.899 = 563.053783

So the 300 btc whale has 394.899 invested by now. And the "normal 1x kelly" investors 563.053783.

If I calculate my % of the BR that is given on the invest page:
1/0.00022272*1.005008 = 4512.42816092
The bankroll seems 4512 and 10x394.899+563.053783 is exactly 4512.043783. So the math works out fine and at least it looks like I am not being cheated



So basically the 10x whale gets 394.899*10/4512.42816092*100 = 87.5% of the profits (and losses) for having 394.899/957.952783*100 = 41.2% of the bankroll. Isn't that a bit silly?

The thing is AFAIK when the max profit in each bet is below 394.899*0.01+(394.899*0.01/0.875*0.125) = 4.51313142857 - even the 10x whale is not risking more than 1x kelly. Right? So even though he does get a relatively bigger share of the losses (and profits), kelly-wise he is only risking more than 1x when the bet is bigger than 4.5 BTC?

And I have 1.005008/957.952783*100 = 0.1049% of the bankroll, but get 5 times less: 1.005008/4512.42816092*100=0.022272% of the profits.


Just seems strange to me. Right now I am personally very tempted to invest 5 BTC instead of the 1 BTC that I would actually like to risk on this dice invest site. So it seems to me that the "10x solution so you guys know I won't scam" is actually pushing small investors to invest/risk more?

IMO it should:
- Let everyone invest on 0.5 - 10x kelly, instead of a 100 btc minimum limit?
- Share the profits on 1x kelly based share of bankroll, and only give more to 10x kelly investors in case the bet was not covered by 1x kelly max bet. (But this does not really have the advantage of not risking too much on the site, I think? Only advantage of bigger max profit?)

What ya guys think?

Ps, I never read much into the kelly criterion, if I misunderstand something, pls correct me

They have dogedice.me if you want to bet in doge

I think only in appearance are different.
Apparently there is something else that makes different bitdice with primedice

The only major difference I think is that Bitdice accepts Investments which allows you to be the bank, and its not possible to be the bank on PD.
The rest are minor differences.

There are actually quite a few differences.  

The biggest difference is that Bitdice (BD) allows investment and PD does not.

The biggest difference for low rollers is that there is no faucet.  So the chat is less active on BD and much less beggary.  In fact, there is almost no begging on BD as there is just no tolerance for it and the site is coded so that you can't chat if you use TOR, so when you are banned, you are GONE.  I really like it.

PD's tipbot fires randomly on individuals based on chat activity.  BD's tipbot fires randomly once per hour or so on everyone who chats during its window - which is also random.

There is no minimum tip (? or it's pretty low) on BD like there is on PD.  This is possible since there is no faucet.  BD has an affiliated coin exchange, simpleswap, as well as is part of a family of sites - litedice, reddice, and dogedice.  The chats are linked though the sites are distinct.  I like altcoins and so that is a nice feature.

So IMO there are a lot of differences and I've started to spend a lot more time on BD compared to my old favorite PD.

Good Luck!

Coincidentally we share the same surname. Actually Singh is a common surname in India.


Both are Dice site... what else ?