Bitfinex - FRAUD, price manipulation, fake transactions - page 3.

deisik

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Quote from: TheQuin on December 07, 2017, 09:57:36 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides,

Well, at least now I understand your argument, although I don't agree with it.

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high is the supply of dollars, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price.

That really doesn't make any sense unless you mean that at high prices willing buyers will be scarce. But that's just price discovery and it doesn't make a crash more likely

Okay, let's look at another example

We basically have a sellers market with Bitcoin transactions, i.e. buyers (Bitcoin users in this case) are competing between themselves for the early inclusion of their transaction in the next block. In this way, they are constantly bidding the fee up, right? But does it mean that every transaction with the fee above average gets included if there is a jam (which loosely matches the shortage of bitcoins)? Nope. You have to bid significantly higher to get your transaction included soon. This leaves a very long tail of a relatively small number of transactions with very high fees, and it is the same with prices and orderbook bids. Anyway, if you look at recent Bitcoin corrections, you will see that I'm in fact right, and with rising prices volatility rises even faster, in relative terms as well

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

Now if the Tethers really didn't have the backing and all of a sudden all those USD vanished that would be another matter entirely. I don't believe for one moment for that to be the case, certainly not on the quality of the arguments put forward by the agitators

Let's just say that I eagerly hope you're right

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Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides,

Well, at least now I understand your argument, although I don't agree with it.

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high is the supply of dollars, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price.

That really doesn't make any sense unless you mean that at high prices willing buyers will be scarce. But that's just price discovery and it doesn't make a crash more likely.

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

That's likely the reason why Tether continues to create their tokens out of thin air. But, as I said, it makes the market susceptible to extreme volatility.

Now if the Tethers really didn't have the backing and all of a sudden all those USD vanished that would be another matter entirely. I don't believe for one moment for that to be the case, certainly not on the quality of the arguments put forward by the agitators. That brings us back to the start, CBoE and CME will bring in money that isn't in any way under question and will make the market more stable.

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:41:40 AM

Just mark my words, we will see the price crash 50% or more in the future

BTW, one of the first things about trading I was taught by an NYMEX pit trader was if you miss the move always get in at halfway back if it lets you.

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Quote from: TheQuin on December 07, 2017, 09:27:12 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:15:05 AM

the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers.

That's exactly what will happen as long a demand is higher than supply. USD will be in abundance and Bitcoins will be in short supply.

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides, though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high the supply of dollars is, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price and on a way to that price. It is not just a matter of price fall (which seems be the root of your confusion), it is rather a matter of rise first and fall then. That's likely the reason why Tether continues to create their tokens out of thin air. But, as I said, it makes the market susceptible to extreme volatility. Just mark my words, we will see the price crash 50% or more in the future

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Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:15:05 AM

You seem to have missed the whole part of my post about the price rise. When the price rises and there is only a limited supply of whatever gets traded

There are always two things being trading in any market. In this case, it is Bitcoin and the USD. The offers are Bitcoins and the bids are USDs. The offers will indeed likely thin out at higher prices but the only reason the bids will thin out is if buyers no longer want to pay the price. There will be no limited supply of USD.

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 09:15:05 AM

the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers.

That's exactly what will happen as long a demand is higher than supply. USD will be in abundance and Bitcoins will be in short supply.

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Quote from: TheQuin on December 07, 2017, 08:48:45 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 08:35:17 AM

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

I don't understand the logic here. The bids are made up of USD so why would a diminishing Bitcoin supply make the order book thin on the downside?

But how can it be otherwise?

You seem to have missed the whole part of my post about the price rise. When the price rises and there is only a limited supply of whatever gets traded (which is the case with Bitcoin), there is no way there can be enough bids just below the balance, which seems to be your point. If there were, the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers. It is sort of an equation where you can't just diminish (or increase, for that matter) only one side of it without affecting the other

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Quote from: deisik on December 07, 2017, 08:35:17 AM

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

I don't understand the logic here. The bids are made up of USD so why would a diminishing Bitcoin supply make the order book thin on the downside?

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Quote from: Samarkand on December 06, 2017, 01:28:13 PM

As more (institutional) money flows into Bitcoin the market cap will obviously grow even further, which should result in less
volatility. When BTC was having a market cap in the single-digit billions the swings were more extreme, because
whales could easily move the price

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

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Quote from: Quickseller on December 07, 2017, 07:14:58 AM

You must not be very good at reading. Either that or you are being intentionally dishonest....probably both

That is mayax summed up.

Quote from: mayax on December 07, 2017, 04:40:43 AM

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

Clearly two different bank accounts.

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Quote from: mayax on December 07, 2017, 04:40:43 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on December 06, 2017, 07:13:40 PM

Quote from: mayax on December 06, 2017, 07:10:29 PM

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?

Because they use the same bank...

It's the SAME BANK ACCOUNT NAME (same company) not only the same bank ! Cheesy

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

You must not be very good at reading. Either that or you are being intentionally dishonest....probably both

mayax

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Quote from: Quickseller on December 06, 2017, 07:13:40 PM

Quote from: mayax on December 06, 2017, 07:10:29 PM

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?

Because they use the same bank...

It's the SAME BANK ACCOUNT NAME (same company) not only the same bank ! Cheesy

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

Quickseller

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Quote from: Samarkand on December 06, 2017, 01:28:13 PM

Quote from: Quickseller on December 06, 2017, 12:24:33 PM

...

The CBOE et el., are not going to offer 24 hour trading, which puts anyone with an open position while the markets are closed at risk of the market moving against them, potentially to the extent they have negative equity in their accounts while the markets are closed. The circuit breakers will also make the futures market unattractive because traders may not be able to take advantage of some of the large swings in price, and may be unable to exit positions if the market goes a certain way.

...

Interesting viewpoint.

However, I´d argue that the circuit breakers will prove to be less relevant than you currently think.
As more (institutional) money flows into Bitcoin the market cap will obviously grow even further, which should result in less
volatility. When BTC was having a market cap in the single-digit billions the swings were more extreme, because
whales could easily move the price.

These days the ecosystem is much more mature and the high market cap makes it more difficult to cause big
price swings. E.g. years ago a 10M $ (worth of BTC) market sell would have easily caused a decline of 20-30 % and nowadays this
would cause a less pronounced market move.

Therefore I think that the circuit breakers at 20 % won´t really be triggered unless a really extreme event happens.

It is not necessarily the circuit breaker in itself being triggered that is the issue, it is the risk of the circuit breaker being triggered.

It is still fairly common for there to be daily 20%+ swings. You could also argue that the institutional money will make the price more stable, however "buy bitcoin" is a very crowded trade currently, so the additional institutional money may simply result in more people buying up bitcoin (being on only one side of the trade).

There also still remains the issue of 24 hour trading (and potentially news) on the spot market. The price tends to move at all hours of the day, even if it is not a 20% swing, it will often be several percentage points.

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Quote from: mayax on December 06, 2017, 07:10:29 PM

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?

Because they use the same bank...

mayax

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Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account. Their bank is : Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?

As you know, Bitfinex didn't have any official bank account until November 2017 because their accounts were closed in April 2017.

Why does Bitfinex (a "legal " company) is sharing a bank account with other exchanger, it's a "mystery" Roll Eyes

Remember remember the 5th of November

legendary

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Reverse engineer from time to time

For some reason the withdrawals are taking 24hrs+, for some people even longer than 2 days, for small amounts, let alone big ones.

TheQuin

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Quote from: mayax on December 06, 2017, 01:35:54 PM

it's funny how TheQuin, has firstly mentioned that Bitfinex is licensed in HK through RENRENBEE LIMITED ( HK) and now, he doesn't mention anymore about the non-existent Bitfinex license in HK . More that that, he is stating that Bitfinex doesn't need one at all. Grin

LOL

As I said back here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.25734460 whether or not that information is out of date doesn’t actually change anything.

It is a lot funnier how you ignore the pertinent questions again.

Quote from: TheQuin on December 06, 2017, 09:28:17 AM

Let me ask you another couple of questions about AvaTrade.
Why do they only hold licences in the countries they have a physical presence?
Do you think they do not accept customers from all the other countries in the world?

That could be because the answers to those question prove that your arguments are completely wrong.

Quote from: mayax on December 06, 2017, 01:35:54 PM

mysterious institutions are buying hundreds of millions of Tethers from an unlicensed company, without an official bank account from April till December, hacked three times now and never provided a single answer about the so called "authorities investigation", and then a FOMO (fear of missing out man) buying Bitcoins on their exchange.

totally plausible. Grin

More unsubstantiated lies and FUD.

Quote from: Samarkand on December 06, 2017, 12:05:37 PM

What are your thoughts on the future of Bitfinex? I remember that you claimed regularly that Bitfinex was used by institutional customers due to it having the biggest exchange volume. Now that CBOE and CME are launching their Bitcoin futures in the next 1-2 weeks and NASDAQ is going to offer it in 2018 as well, these institutional investors will surely leave Bitfinex towards more legitimate brokers? After all they will be able to trade the CME contracts at reputable brokers like Interactive Brokers and so on, which offer deposit guarantees and are registered
in less questionable jurisdictions than Bitfinex.

Clearly Bitfinex will suffer hugely from this? I can´t really envision a scenario where institutional investors will prefer Bitfinex over one of the legit fiat brokers.

Leaving aside the pejorative language used to discredit Bitfinex it is an interesting question. Before I get on to that Interactive Brokers are a retail outfit and no institutions would use them.
I’m really not sure what the impact will be overall, so this is more idle speculation than a prediction. I think it brings a whole lot of new money to the game that could actually increase the overall volume to an extent that both crypto exchanges and the futures markets could see an increase in trade. Many of those trading the futures will be doing so to hedge positions in actual Bitcoins. Quickseller made valid points about market hours and circuit breakers both of which increase the need to be able to hedge and crypto exchanges are the only place to effectively do it.

mayax

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mysterious institutions are buying hundreds of millions of Tethers from an unlicensed company, without an official bank account from April till December, hacked three times now and never provided a single answer about the so called "authorities investigation", and then a FOMO (fear of missing out man) buying Bitcoins on their exchange.

totally plausible. Grin

it's funny how TheQuin, has firstly mentioned that Bitfinex is licensed in HK through RENRENBEE LIMITED ( HK) and now, he doesn't mention anymore about the non-existent Bitfinex license in HK . More that that, he is stating that Bitfinex doesn't need one at all. Grin

LOL

TheQuin, try to keep the line.

Samarkand

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Quote from: Quickseller on December 06, 2017, 12:24:33 PM

...

The CBOE et el., are not going to offer 24 hour trading, which puts anyone with an open position while the markets are closed at risk of the market moving against them, potentially to the extent they have negative equity in their accounts while the markets are closed. The circuit breakers will also make the futures market unattractive because traders may not be able to take advantage of some of the large swings in price, and may be unable to exit positions if the market goes a certain way.

...

Interesting viewpoint.

However, I´d argue that the circuit breakers will prove to be less relevant than you currently think.
As more (institutional) money flows into Bitcoin the market cap will obviously grow even further, which should result in less
volatility. When BTC was having a market cap in the single-digit billions the swings were more extreme, because
whales could easily move the price.

These days the ecosystem is much more mature and the high market cap makes it more difficult to cause big
price swings. E.g. years ago a 10M $ (worth of BTC) market sell would have easily caused a decline of 20-30 % and nowadays this
would cause a less pronounced market move.

Therefore I think that the circuit breakers at 20 % won´t really be triggered unless a really extreme event happens.

Quickseller

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Quote from: Samarkand on December 06, 2017, 12:05:37 PM

Quote from: TheQuin on December 06, 2017, 11:15:37 AM

@Samarkand

I'm pretty sure I remember them being based in Luxembourg when the first started but it doesn't really change any of what I was saying. If they didn't have a Luxembourg office they wouldn't require a licence in the EU after Britain becomes free again.

I remember them being based in Slovenia originally. If I´m not mistaken the two original founders (Nejc Kodric is one of them, I don´t remember the other
Co-Founder) are Slovenian nationals, too.

But this is not really the topic of this thread.

What are your thoughts on the future of Bitfinex? I remember that you claimed regularly that Bitfinex was used by institutional customers due
to it having the biggest exchange volume. Now that CBOE and CME are launching their Bitcoin futures in the next 1-2 weeks and NASDAQ is
going to offer it in 2018 as well, these institutional investors will surely leave Bitfinex towards more legitimate brokers? After all they will
be able to trade the CME contracts at reputable brokers like Interactive Brokers and so on, which offer deposit guarantees and are registered
in less questionable jurisdictions than Bitfinex.

Clearly Bitfinex will suffer hugely from this? I can´t really envision a scenario where institutional investors will prefer Bitfinex over one
of the legit fiat brokers.

The CBOE et el., are not going to offer 24 hour trading, which puts anyone with an open position while the markets are closed at risk of the market moving against them, potentially to the extent they have negative equity in their accounts while the markets are closed. The circuit breakers will also make the futures market unattractive because traders may not be able to take advantage of some of the large swings in price, and may be unable to exit positions if the market goes a certain way.

I would expect liquidity and trading volumes to increase on bitfinex while the futures market is open while traders take advantage of discrepancies in price. The leverage trading that bitfinex offers is arguably better than what is being offered on the futures exchanges because of 24 hour trading.

Samarkand

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Quote from: TheQuin on December 06, 2017, 11:15:37 AM

@Samarkand

I'm pretty sure I remember them being based in Luxembourg when the first started but it doesn't really change any of what I was saying. If they didn't have a Luxembourg office they wouldn't require a licence in the EU after Britain becomes free again.

I remember them being based in Slovenia originally. If I´m not mistaken the two original founders (Nejc Kodric is one of them, I don´t remember the other
Co-Founder) are Slovenian nationals, too.

But this is not really the topic of this thread.

What are your thoughts on the future of Bitfinex? I remember that you claimed regularly that Bitfinex was used by institutional customers due
to it having the biggest exchange volume. Now that CBOE and CME are launching their Bitcoin futures in the next 1-2 weeks and NASDAQ is
going to offer it in 2018 as well, these institutional investors will surely leave Bitfinex towards more legitimate brokers? After all they will
be able to trade the CME contracts at reputable brokers like Interactive Brokers and so on, which offer deposit guarantees and are registered
in less questionable jurisdictions than Bitfinex.

Clearly Bitfinex will suffer hugely from this? I can´t really envision a scenario where institutional investors will prefer Bitfinex over one
of the legit fiat brokers.

TheQuin

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@Samarkand

I'm pretty sure I remember them being based in Luxembourg when the first started but it doesn't really change any of what I was saying. If they didn't have a Luxembourg office they wouldn't require a licence in the EU after Britain becomes free again.

Topic: Bitfinex - FRAUD, price manipulation, fake transactions - page 3. (Read 4933 times)