Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 335. (Read 531297 times)

Biodom - Actually I was just winging it and using numbers that would backtrack to S9 purchase price for comparison. But using dmwardjr's mining return numbers...

So an S9 would cost me a quarter coin in power if coin is at $1500, leaving me 1.95BTC from the 2.2BTC mined if I roll the entire power cost forward each month for a recompense in December. Though unrealistic, that makes the comparison easier (and also the most optimistic).

So I should buy 1.95BTC right now for about $1150 and cash it out for $2900 at the end of the year for a net profit of $1750?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100, buy an S9, pay $360 in electric over the next 6 months, mine 2.2BTC and cash it out for about $3300 at the end of the year for a net profit of about $800?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and cash it out at the end of the year for around $5400 for a net profit of around $3300 and no monthly expenditure?

If I'm paying monthly for power on an S9 by selling the required amount of coin monthly, I only actually keep around 1.86BTC by the end of it, so I'd cash out for about $2800 and a net profit of $700. Or I could have bought 1.86BTC for about $1100 and cash it at the end of the year for a $1700 profit.

Your numbers aren't very favorable for buying an S9 fresh. If an S7 runs 1/3 the hashrate it should net 1/3 the coinage, so about 0.73BTC which is currently valued at around $430. I can get an S7 aftermarket for around 0.5BTC and spend 0.25BTC on power (if I roll all my costs forward to recompense in December) for an ultimate breakeven. Or I can keep the BTC and cash out at year's end for a $450 profit. Dang, as much as I like the idea of $1500 coin those numbers really aren't encouraging at all for miners.

Okay  lets argue

 old hash                                     = 400ph before s-7

soon to be old hash                      = 900ph   the S-7 and friends

new hash on and off with a switch = 500ph after s-7


I believe the numbers above are close to correct right now

the ½ ing comes  how much of the 1300ph drops.   I say 600ph drops  but that 500ph of new seems to already be here.

so  they may give us a big drop  after the ½ ing , but in August ,Sept, Oct up up and away.

I study these charts a lot and the spike has become very commonplace.

It is how I determine offline gear.



a screenshot of the chart below  this shows the older spike

Knowing sidehack's precision, he probably already cranked the numbers that he posted as being the likeliest.
Why would we get a drop anyway (from now to July)?
Plus, minor point, but S9 is NOT more than three times S7 (at least not B1, 3, 5,7, 8-16). 14/4.86 (B1,3,5)=2.88; 14/5.06 (B7)=2.77; 14/4.73 (B>eight)=2.96
Just saying.

It's not that clear cut.

What makes you think you only mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year?

If you started the last two weeks of July with the following difficulty changes:

.2624 BTC mined the last 2 weeks of July with difficulty at 187.824 Billion
.2515 BTC mined 2 weeks later (August 1, 2016) 5% increase August 1, 2016, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
.2391 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
.2277 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
.2168 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increased another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
.1885 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increased 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs online.]
.1640 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increased 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
.1477 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increased 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]
.1368 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid November) the difficulty increased 8% from 333.670 Billion to 360.364 Billion.
.1319 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of November) the difficulty increased 12% from 333.670 Billion to 373.710 Billion.
.1221 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 8% from 373.710 Billion to 403.607 Billion.
.1152 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 6% from 403.607 Billion to 427.824 Billion.

2.2037 BTC mined approximately by end of December 2016.  This does not include paying for power costs.

The outlook on how many bitcoin mined per S9 looks kind of disappointing after December, 2016 if the difficulty plays out the way I'm speculating.  Maybe you think it's impossible for difficulty to increase this much in a relatively short period of time.  However, I believe it would be achieved quite easily.  Especially, if another manufacturer comes out with similar efficiency rigs.  Think about it, the S9 is MORE THAN TRIPLE THE HASH RATE of the previous S7 at virtually the same power consumption.  Is it not reasonable to conclude the difficulty could easily double within a 5 to 6 month period with that kind of performance.  Especially, if Bitmain is not the only manufacturer with this technology.

this is why we have not lowered our selling price too much on the 2 s-7's and 3 avalon6's  left in the solar setup

the power is 'free' or 5 cents.

 Free since it  has been built and paid for.  fives cents since the power company would pay 5 cents to buy the power.

At five cents 22th makes  675 from now until july 4th

at 0 cents 22th makes     861 from now until july 4th

at zero cents 22th    makes 900 from july 4th to sept 4th

at five cents 22th makes    497 from july 4th to sept 4th


So holding the 5 pieces for 3 months = 1175 to 1761    depends on your math.

All I can run at my place is 2kw, hence a small effort with 12-13 GPUs.
5gh, that is probably minimum 40kw or more-do you have a farm or something?

Me too, since no miners were available I dumped the 300Th of Avalons and bought 5 Gh of GPU's etc and have made a killing.  I must say it is a pain in the ass to run all those GPU's and I would much rather be mining Bitcoin directly but the state of affairs with Bitcoin mining is making it difficult.

As far as base price for S7, where did you guys get $250? This does not exist (yet).
Maybe, that is what you are bidding, but i have seen S7 sold for BTC0.75 ($435, although in EU) just today.
It very well may be that base price would be $300-350 for a while. In fact, if BTC gets to $800 (hypothetically) shortly after halving, it would still be marginally profitable at 7-9c and wildly profitable in WA, Labrador, South America or other low electricity cost areas. Three S7 would still bring the same coin as S9 if your electricity price is very low.

Yeah I went back and reread your post and figured out the answer to my question so I deleted it.

I've got about half a dozen S7 running in hosting on dual Dell 750s. The difference with a new batch will be the option for 6-pin cabling, which people seem to like because, though far less versatile, it's quick and clean. I'd probably be selling these boards out the butt if I had any for the last six months, but things have been tight around the shop between Compacs and DPS8/12 boards and people waiting a month and a half to pay their bills. Money definitely does not grow on trees around here.

A 208V-fed DPS1200 will run a 135-chip S7 on stock settings. Runs hot, but it runs.

Good schematics would be nice. Heck of a lot easier than reverse-engineering, and cheaper. Tomorrow's task will be hacking away at Avalon stuff since they didn't provide an A3218 datasheet. After that will be hacking away at an S7LN board. Making things work and making things work better are always fun.

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

I like these speculations.  Another way to view it this:  If you have s7's that you want to sell, sell now or wait ?  We know miners hit a "floor" value at some point.  So is selling an s7 for 250$ reasonable right now ?  How much will it be worth after halving ?  In october ?  100$?  Maybe its better to keep it ?  I too feel (and I have said before) we are due for a massive pump, and the last one took at least a quarter to materialize, this one will be longer.  Mayyyybe, just maybe, the smart move is to keep the s7's until they hit "floor" value, and just keep that sweet btc, and dont give it to Bitmain.  Then at some point switch em for the s9's or actually skip this generation.  Its a tough call.  Like I feel btc will really double or triple, and i'd buy a ton of it, but unfortunately money doesnt grow on trees.

-removed for privacy-


-removed for privacy-

in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

I would have to agree.  I believe the day of seeing sub $450 USD for a bitcoin and sub $4.50 for LTC is history.

That's not going to happen unless there is another exchange scam or China decides to dump it all

not.you asked the following but deleted his question:  "Is that image of the calculator based on 25 coins per block or 12.5?"

I halved the price in my calculation from $655.20 in that month to $327.60 because of blocks reducing from 25 to 12.5.

EDIT:  I'm basically saying your profits with an S9 will look quite nice through October, 2016.  However, don't be surprised if difficulty begins to increase at a rate faster than bitcoin price increase after October, 2016.  Your profits after power costs may reduce from $200+ each month to $100+ each month by December, 2016 IF THE PRICE OF BITCOIN DOES NOT INCREASE TO THE PROJECTED $1,500 I've speculated in my 3-Day price chart by end of 2016.  However, if bitcoin price does increase to $1,500 by end of 2016, you can expect the percentage rate of difficulty to increase at a similar percentage rate with bitcoin price until the end of 2016 and continue to enjoy $200+ profits per S9 monthly.  However, I can see the difficulty increase exponentially in 2017 if the price of bitcoin increased to $1,500.

I, personally, would carry over what remains to be paid towards your PSU's to your next rig (Bitmain S9) in terms of ROI.  You can sell an S7 for $250 plus buyer pays shipping right now.

However, I'm kind of having a hard time myself justifying if it's worth it right now at current price of BTC.  We are at a unique time in terms of our current bullish outlook of bitcoin price compared to the previous two years of bearish markets.

We could probably conclude the buyers of the S9 may do quite well [In terms of monthly profits] during the next three to four months of a rise in bitcoin price that out paces a rise in difficulty.  However, I'm speculating a bitcoin price rise as high as $1,500 the last quarter of 2016.

I'm expecting difficulty to drop down from our current 199,312,067,531 to around 187,000,000,000 by end of July and begin to increase about 5% on average every difficulty change from there until around end of August or September.  I'm expecting at least one manufacturer, whether it's BitFury, KNC, or some other manufacturer, to get next generation rigs up and running soon.  If another manufacturer begins adding next generation rigs to the network, we could see difficulty rises as high as 12% to 17% on average every difficulty change quite easily.  

IF BTC price increases to $1,000 USD, it will have risen 72.4 percent.  If difficulty increased 72.4 percent from 187,000,000,000, that would put difficulty at 322,388,000,000.  When difficulty changes a certain percentage each difficulty change, it is compounded each change.  For example,

If Difficulty was 187 Billion the end of July and increased 5% the first change in August, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increases another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increases 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs coming online.]
2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increases 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increases 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]

An increase in difficulty from 187.000 Billion to 322.388 Billion is an increase of 72.4 percent.  EDIT:  Looking back at the difficulty changes added up, one may think we increased 5% + 5% + 5%+ 5% + 15% + 15% + 11% = 61%.  However, the way it is compounded each increase actually makes this a 72.4 percent increase.

This means a projected rise in difficulty has matched a projected rise in BTC price by end of October, 2016.  Which see, if the price of Bitcoin went up to $1,000 by end of October [72.4 percent increase from current price] and the difficulty is 322.388 Billion [72.4 percent increase from projected lower difficulty in July of 187 Billion].

Here is what projected earnings look like with BTC price @ $1,000 and difficulty at 322,388,000,000:  Half of $655.20 (blocks halved) in a month = $327.60 (0.6552 BTC) before power costs the end of October, 2016.  EDIT:  This assumes you are on a pool with low fees and 100+ percent luck.  I am currently (kano.is).



Since our estimated ROI relies heavily upon our power costs, I'm leaving estimation of ROI up to each miner to calculate.  My estimations could be wrong on the percentage difficulty increases because I'm not sure how many S9's Bitmaintech can manufacture in a month.  I'm also not sure of when another manufacturer will add their next generation rigs to the network and how many they can manufacturer monthly.  

All of this is pure speculation on my part.  I'm offering up my speculation on difficulty for conversation among us all to determine whether it's wise to purchase the S9 or not at current price.

Projected BTC Price Movement on 3D (3-Day) Chart [Meaning each candle is 3-Days in duration]:  https://www.tradingview.com/x/tLfFQO1K//

EDIT:  Also, for those of you trading, I don't see this time being a pump and dump scheme.  That's what the whales want you to think when they fake out a dump, only to find they have created a trap to accumulate more BTC with the intent of pumping it further afterwards.  If this was a pump and dump scheme, they would have started the pump much sooner than what they did.  This time we will have a pump with very little dump and continue pumping again.  2016 will be a bullish year for bitcoin.  2017 through 2019 will be even more bullish than 2016.

Sidehack is working on a dual Dell 750 breakout board with 10 PCIe connectors!
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15106357