Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.
I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...
look at the pattern:
s-1 2.00 watts
s-3 0.74 watts
s-5 0.51 watts
S-7 0.25 watts
S-9 0.10 watts
S-11 at worst goes to 0.07 based on the s-5 to s-7
I don't see a 0.02 any time soon.
I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about that 0.07 s-11 unless avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.
The key for improvement is what does avalon bitfury or bw do .
Since no one is near the .1 s-9
BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now.
They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.
I never saw a BW Machine in the wild...
