Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 45. (Read 531067 times)

Why are you still posting this everywhere? I don't get it. Did you build a huge farm somewhere and now you are trying to convince people not to buy miners because you made some random numbers (yes, for me its random numbers - nobody can know what the price and difficulty will be year from now)? Whats your point? Do you really think that people will stop mining/buying miners because of you made some "predictions" ?

Yeah, well,
I'm in the 'suspend mining but keep investing for now camp'.
The forecasts I've shared here demonstrate only negative profitability in mining

Edit (to keeps this on topic): the above statement assumes you're mining with S9's, who knows what Bitmain & Bitfury have in their farms.

Neither of which was proposed better than the other in my reply... but I will say I do both!
Mine, and invest, on!  

Edit- And yes I have S9's in my Droid collection, and will even buy another if only to use the BitCH coin I got sitting around from the fuck, oops I meant fork...  

Read the discussion I've had after my first post, what BTC does in the long run is not that relevant if you're comparing how much BTC an S9 will make you compared to investing the cost of an S9 directly into BTC.

Yeah I think I've explained that in the long discussion I had after that first post.
What I'm advocating for is selling your S9's now if you have them (and turning that money into BTC) or if you're about to buy one, don't, turn that money into BTC. Also, turn the money you would pay for power directly into BTC.
You'll be better off in the long run regardless of what BTC does as with the rate the network hashrate is growing, the amount of BTC your S9 will make is declining rapidly.

Thanks, I believe (and this is not based on numbers, just an educated guess), there will be a good opportunity to get back into the game in a few months time.
Either when new hardware is available and/or when all those March batch S9's have come online and soon after get taken down again because of non-profitability and start flooding Ebay. There will be bargains to be made.

Not just flawed, patently untrue.  Which direction is the question, and I'm betting long term it's up, up, up!  

You're assuming that BTC stays around this price level.   Many of us miners, feel that that stance, is flawed.


You were smart to sell the miners though, no problems in recognizing a profit from these guys, whether it's by usage or selling them off.   Kudos.

So for those of you still throwing yourselves on the “opportunity” every time Bitmain throws another batch of S9’s on the market.

Just over a month ago I made a spreadsheet predicting how much BTC an S9 will make you over the next year and how quickly it will pay itself back (if ever) based on the current network hashrate forecast.
I sold my S9 soon after and I posted the spreadsheet here a little while later advocating people are way better off selling their S9’s then as they were selling for ridiculous prices on Ebay and were predicted not to be profitable for very much longer.

I had 3 forecasts in the spreadsheet:
- One where it keeps growing at the current trend,
- An optimistic one in which the hashrate eventually stops growing and flattens off,
- A pessimistic one where the rate at which it’s growing keeps increasing as it always has done.

Here’s a link to my original post:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.28290683

Only the optimistic forecast predicted an S9 would pay itself back after 8 months, the current trend and pessimistic forecast predicted it would never and eventually become negative profit which means you’re better off investing that money into BTC now if what you’re banking on is BTC value to go up.

Now we’re a month later and guess what, my most pessimistic forecast was not pessimistic enough, the network hashrate (and thus also the difficulty) is growing at ever faster rates, faster than my original pessimistic predictions.
See for yourself, I had Feb 1st predicted at 19.79E worst case scenario, well, it turns out today the total network hashrate is at 21.61E!!!

I have not updated the forecast, just added another actual point for Feb 1st so you can compare it to what I forecasted before. Have a look, the Feb 1st blue point is well above the upper forecast.
(here’s a link to the spreadsheet for those who want to download it to verify my calculations: https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1m3xac87ptylj0/hash%20forecast.xlsx?dl=0)

And how many releases of “March  batches” have there been now? What will that do to the network hashrate (& difficulty) next month you think?

The price of S9’s has dropped significantly on Ebay now as well BTW which should be a hint too.
After making me some good money I sold my 6m old S9 for $2600 more than I bought it, it does not look like that would be possible today.

So seriously, if none of this sets off any alarm bells, I’m not sure what will.

The thing is, mining is a very low profit game usually as network hashrate/difficulty follows BTC price.
But, there is a massive lag, and with the jump in BTC price last year there was a brief window of opportunity where you could make serious money mining Bitcoin while hashrate/difficulty were lagging behind.
There was also a great opportunity to sell your miners at the end and get out in time with a huge profit.
Now that masses have caught on; you should have gotten out by now.
Network hashrate/difficulty will soon catch up with BTC price (which is now staggering) and because of the lag, it will probably 'overshoot' so we're entering a period of negative profitability for all of us before it gets back to balance!

As with anything,
It’s only the ‘entrepreneurs’, the ones who see these opportunities in advance and dare to take a risk right there and then, who end up raking in the rewards, and more often than not they do so at the cost of the masses that follow them.

Bristle all you like. I am not suggesting it, I am stating a fact. I have received used gear from them. If you haven't, count yourself lucky.

They were the s7's that went on sale just before the s9's came out. I didn't mind or complain about it. Just stating a fact. They still ran and continue to run just fine. It didin't stop me from buying s9's or t9's either.

May be the best thing to get a used one though, well tested Infant mortality on S9s is terrible.

Unless they're doing a little better job "refubrishing" them now...

So I could receive a used miner, few days before the release of a new ''s11''.....AAAAAAaand now I won't sleep well thank you ! 

This is a batch by batch situation. There have definitely been batches that were sold as "new" by Bitmain and had plenty of evidence of use, such as dust on the fans and heat sinks. We haven't seen this in about a year, but I'd expect to see it a lot more when they release the successor to the S9.

at 9:45 am Chicago time (Wednesday), sold out of S9 !

At least you will have nice heater with 6 months warranty 

for shipping to the US, is there a preferred shipper (UPS, Fedex, DHL)

And of course when bch cost nothing ( except for us who have bought them few days ago...   )

USD accepted on S9 sale too

In stock again... it seems they have split the availability for different geographical regions.

no telegram bitmainbot alert...