Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 40.

Logan4el

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Quote from: bl1nd on February 06, 2018, 11:38:48 AM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 02:44:33 PM

Quote from: kenji on February 05, 2018, 01:23:37 PM

Quote from: lossol on February 05, 2018, 01:09:31 PM

Last week ROI on an S9 purchased on shitmain's website was slightly less than a year at .10/kWh. Today, it's over 400 days which essentially means never as difficulty is still rising and bitcoin is still falling. At this rate, it won't even pay to turn on an S9. I guess all the manufacturers pushed their prices high up so they could squeeze the last bit of profit from us miners before the crash.

I don't know how you're running the numbers, but they're wrong. First of all the ROI of an S9 is not anywhere near as long as 400 days, even with bitcoin doing so poorly recently, so that says something right there, that it can keep being profitable even in this environment. Second of all - assuming the difficulty keeps rising and the price of bitcoin keeps falling - yes, the S9 would not make a good investment. However the truth of the matter is that you can't see the future any more or less than the rest of us. You don't know if the price of bitcoin will keep falling, or if it will rise, or what the difficulty will do, etc. If you believe in bitcoin and believe it will make a comeback (which history tells us it will), then you don't base your numbers off today, but what you expect them to be in the future, especially with something as volatile as bitcoin.

This is wishful thinking.
BTC value cannot be forecast but you can make some pretty good predictions about total network hashrate and difficulty, I’ve shared mine on various occasions in this thread and even the best case scenarios don’t show an S9 to be a good investment currently, worst case scenario shows the S9 to be money down the drain.
It’s been over a month since I built those forecast and so far the total network hashrate is growing even faster than my original worst case scenario. That should tell you something.
Anyway, you can find the work a few pages back in this thread, check it out.

I dont know what hashrate chart are u using, the one im watching hashrate is falling

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

Difficulty retarget chart
Date (24h UTC)    Feb 7th, 01:49    -
Remaining    5 hours, 25 minutes (37 blk)    -
Change    +10.16%

Happy mining

bl1nd

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Activity: 53

Merit: 1

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 02:44:33 PM

Quote from: kenji on February 05, 2018, 01:23:37 PM

Quote from: lossol on February 05, 2018, 01:09:31 PM

Last week ROI on an S9 purchased on shitmain's website was slightly less than a year at .10/kWh. Today, it's over 400 days which essentially means never as difficulty is still rising and bitcoin is still falling. At this rate, it won't even pay to turn on an S9. I guess all the manufacturers pushed their prices high up so they could squeeze the last bit of profit from us miners before the crash.

I don't know how you're running the numbers, but they're wrong. First of all the ROI of an S9 is not anywhere near as long as 400 days, even with bitcoin doing so poorly recently, so that says something right there, that it can keep being profitable even in this environment. Second of all - assuming the difficulty keeps rising and the price of bitcoin keeps falling - yes, the S9 would not make a good investment. However the truth of the matter is that you can't see the future any more or less than the rest of us. You don't know if the price of bitcoin will keep falling, or if it will rise, or what the difficulty will do, etc. If you believe in bitcoin and believe it will make a comeback (which history tells us it will), then you don't base your numbers off today, but what you expect them to be in the future, especially with something as volatile as bitcoin.

This is wishful thinking.
BTC value cannot be forecast but you can make some pretty good predictions about total network hashrate and difficulty, I’ve shared mine on various occasions in this thread and even the best case scenarios don’t show an S9 to be a good investment currently, worst case scenario shows the S9 to be money down the drain.
It’s been over a month since I built those forecast and so far the total network hashrate is growing even faster than my original worst case scenario. That should tell you something.
Anyway, you can find the work a few pages back in this thread, check it out.

I dont know what hashrate chart are u using, the one im watching hashrate is falling

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

kobo_eth

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Activity: 294

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Quote from: Apprentice on February 06, 2018, 10:29:15 AM

Quote from: HagssFIN on February 06, 2018, 09:29:35 AM

Quote from: pnbamania on February 06, 2018, 06:46:24 AM

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

never invest what you can't loose

Just ordered 2 more of the S9's.
It is actually good that Bitmain keeps the same prices, can you imagine what will happen if they lower the price? Number of machines purchased will go to the moon and difficulty will make mining really useless now.

Apprentice

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Activity: 500

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Quote from: HagssFIN on February 06, 2018, 09:29:35 AM

Quote from: pnbamania on February 06, 2018, 06:46:24 AM

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

never invest what you can't loose

krisgt30

sr. member

Activity: 461

Merit: 306

S9 just released again, same price....

HagssFIN

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1714

Electrical engineer. Mining since 2014.

Quote from: pnbamania on February 06, 2018, 06:46:24 AM

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

pnbamania

full member

Activity: 267

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pnbamania on February 06, 2018, 06:46:24 AM

Quote from: Apprentice on February 06, 2018, 06:41:23 AM

Quote from: floppydisk on February 06, 2018, 06:23:43 AM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 06, 2018, 05:56:25 AM

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

My S9's from FEB batch were shipped today. I am f***ing scared what to do, sell them or wait.. with current ROI..

Also on the side note people said that they are banking on my BCH but here is the scenario for me.

I actually bought when BTC and BCH were in the sky before they went down.. so current rate same amount of BCH = 5580.72445 USD

Back then 16780.27 USD (6 Ant Miners)

Were you early Feb or late Feb? I am curious... They have been pretty good lately supposedly and have been shipping out 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule.

Late Feb.

CrypotoCreanis

member

Activity: 125

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Don’t do a screen name after 4 glasses of Chianti

Quote from: pnbamania on February 06, 2018, 08:23:42 AM

Quote from: CrypotoCreanis on February 06, 2018, 08:10:00 AM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:32:56 PM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 05, 2018, 09:30:07 PM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:25:56 PM

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

but my point is that I will receive my Ant miners in next few days and there is a massive demand in my City and people are willing to 5K each, If I were to sell them now for 5K each and buy BTC since it's low and hold for a long time, I think I would profit more then actually mining..

Everyone's situation is different. Maybe keep some and sell some to hedge your bets.

pnbamania

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Activity: 267

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Quote from: CrypotoCreanis on February 06, 2018, 08:10:00 AM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:32:56 PM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 05, 2018, 09:30:07 PM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:25:56 PM

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

but my point is that I will receive my Ant miners in next few days and there is a massive demand in my City and people are willing to 5K each, If I were to sell them now for 5K each and buy BTC since it's low and hold for a long time, I think I would profit more then actually mining..

CrypotoCreanis

member

Activity: 125

Merit: 10

Don’t do a screen name after 4 glasses of Chianti

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:32:56 PM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 05, 2018, 09:30:07 PM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:25:56 PM

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

pnbamania

full member

Activity: 267

Merit: 100

Quote from: Apprentice on February 06, 2018, 06:41:23 AM

Quote from: floppydisk on February 06, 2018, 06:23:43 AM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 06, 2018, 05:56:25 AM

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

My S9's from FEB batch were shipped today. I am f***ing scared what to do, sell them or wait.. with current ROI..

Also on the side note people said that they are banking on my BCH but here is the scenario for me.

I actually bought when BTC and BCH were in the sky before they went down.. so current rate same amount of BCH = 5580.72445 USD

Back then 16780.27 USD (6 Ant Miners)

Apprentice

full member

Activity: 500

Merit: 105

Quote from: floppydisk on February 06, 2018, 06:23:43 AM

Quote from: Emkoo on February 06, 2018, 05:56:25 AM

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

floppydisk

jr. member

Activity: 92

Merit: 1

Quote from: Emkoo on February 06, 2018, 05:56:25 AM

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

Emkoo

jr. member

Activity: 103

Merit: 1

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

rizla.plus

jr. member

Activity: 42

Merit: 1

Quote from: Emkoo on February 05, 2018, 09:30:07 PM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:25:56 PM

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

Emkoo

jr. member

Activity: 103

Merit: 1

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 05, 2018, 09:25:56 PM

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

rizla.plus

jr. member

Activity: 42

Merit: 1

Quote from: fanatic26 on February 05, 2018, 07:22:12 PM

You really shouldn't say stuff like this, if you aren't careful someone might believe you even though you are 100% wrong.

People used to say that about the s7s all the time. An s7 at 10c power was profitable until about 3 days ago....the s9 will be making money for a long time to come.

First of all it's about ROI, not profitability,
Yes an S9 that is running now and has already paid for itself will be profitable for a little while longer, however, buying an S9 now is silly, the numbers just do not show they will ever ROI based on current network growth rate.

And if an S7 was "profitable" (not ROI'ing) until recently but now it's not anymore, that should tell you something shouldn't it?

How much you earn from your miner is determined by the miner's hashrate vs. the total network hashrate.
An S9's hashrate is about 2.8 times that of an S9, that means that the total network hashrate has to just get multiplied by 2.8 for an S9 also to become unprofitable.
As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

rizla.plus

jr. member

Activity: 42

Merit: 1

Quote from: kenji on February 05, 2018, 05:24:14 PM

Right now an S9 hits ROI in 224 days, or 7.4 months. With the price of bitcoin down 57% in one month and difficulty on the rise, the S9 still pays itself off in 7.4 months, and you want to sit there and tell me that even if the price goes back to 20k it would be a stretch to ever roi?

Are you and everyone else who keeps saying this on drugs?

I'm sorry but if all you are doing is looking at the online mining profitability calculators or you're just projecting your earnings today forward to estimate what your miner will earn you over the next 224 days, your are (and I'll say this as nice as I can) letting yourself be mislead.

When I had my S9 running in December (I sold it since then), those online calculators were telling me it would make me about 1 BTC/year. Now if I enter the numbers it's less than half that!
That is because the total network hashrate has doubled since then. If you don't understand the significance of this you should look up the Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam.

And guess what, it will almost certainly do so again, at faster and faster rates!
How do I know this you ask? Well I don't know this for certain, it's an estimated guess purely based on the fact that THAT's WHAT IT HAS ALWAYS DONE!
So you can say we're on drugs for saying what we're saying but you're the one betting against the network hashrate doing what it has always done.

Look at the forecast tables I created, I posted them a few pages back, they show you exactly what is likely to occur and what that will mean for your earnings (and beware, at the time BTC was $11500). At the current

lossol

newbie

Activity: 73

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I don't know where you are getting 7.5 months from to ROI. An S9 with PSU and shipping and customs fees is going to run about $2600. Or were you going to run the S9 with free air? Are you getting free shipping from Bitmain too? As of right now BTC is below $6500 so according to coinwarez with power at 0.10/kWh the ROI is 504.5 days. So I'm not making my numbers up, maybe you are.

bl1nd

jr. member

Activity: 53

Merit: 1

Quote from: Par Avion on February 05, 2018, 07:18:12 PM

7.4 months with no diff adj factored. Its not hard math man. It's going down much faster than people realize.( profitibilty) 10-15% loss per month, compounding.

Could things change? Yes sure. China miners could die off for a month or two, all miners with high costs could shut off, and a few other factors.

Diff going up is a fairly constant thing for the next little bit, and an s9 purchased for march delivery will get smoked on roi-ability, even with free electric.

Lets see, first u cant say it is going to be 15% per month on avg, if u look at difficulty charts bitcoin has been flat for months or raising 4% 2% 1%, also if u look at the hashrate chart we are down from 6 days ago. I recommend you compare Hashrate history with price history and look at times of price correction like these how difficulty of mining reacted.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-hashrate.html

The factor isnt china miners moving it is simply price raise, if the difficulty keeps raising and price doesnt a lot of hash power is going offline. As it is A LOT of S7 must be going offline, in fact Bitmain announced a new miner that must ppl say is a bunch of S7 they are moving

Some ppl will say miners will keep mining by having faith that btc price will raise, but thats not really true, must mining farms wont make decisiones based on faith they will make sound business decisions and running at a loss isnt a way to run a business they will simply halt operations and cut costs while they wait. We are not talking about cents, an electricity bill from a big mining farm can get really expensive

Me personally i have 6 coming on march ill probably sell them for 3.5k but that is because i expect a new antminer soon maybe other asics...

Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 40. (Read 531067 times)