wanted to make sure its clear that yale was a no play bc of line
Got it! You've been on a ROLL lately! Keep it up
Topic: Brian123321's Sports Betting Picks | All Sports | Full Tracking Inside - page 21. (Read 25780 times)
March 22, 2014, 06:39:17 PM
Got it! You've been on a ROLL lately! Keep it up
March 22, 2014, 06:21:22 PM
wanted to make sure its clear that yale was a no play bc of line
March 22, 2014, 04:54:47 PM
This has moved back to a no play
March 22, 2014, 02:25:20 PM
March 22
Looks like we had some overnight line movement to create a play.
7pm EST
Yale +4.5 (+4.5)[/s]
Easily could become a no play especially since over night line movement made it become a play. I would wait until right before game time to lock this in making sure the spread listed on covers is +4.5 or higher
Another thing i am not sure if i have made clear. If the spread is listed at +4.5 or above on covers shortly before tip off then it is fine take +4 if that is all you can get at book of your choice. I know this seems like it doesnt make sense but that is how it works.
Looks like we had some overnight line movement to create a play.
7pm EST
Easily could become a no play especially since over night line movement made it become a play. I would wait until right before game time to lock this in making sure the spread listed on covers is +4.5 or higher
Another thing i am not sure if i have made clear. If the spread is listed at +4.5 or above on covers shortly before tip off then it is fine take +4 if that is all you can get at book of your choice. I know this seems like it doesnt make sense but that is how it works.
March 22, 2014, 03:25:29 AM
Finished 1-1 today.
74-33-2
69%
+37.7 Units
Might be it for college basketball.
Have a profitable tournament!
74-33-2
69%
+37.7 Units
Might be it for college basketball.
Have a profitable tournament!
March 21, 2014, 10:22:03 PM
Damn 1-1 today. Broke even. Not bad couldn't complain. Thanks for the plays man and hope you do well the rest of the tourney if you make any more plays.
March 21, 2014, 05:39:48 PM
I have to head out to a show that starts in a couple hours so i have to go ahead and lock in Robert Morris +9 right now.
It could become a no play but i dont see that happening as almost every single fiat site has them at +9.5 right now.
It could become a no play but i dont see that happening as almost every single fiat site has them at +9.5 right now.
March 21, 2014, 05:19:31 PM
Robert Morris looks like it is going to be safe to lock in whenever you feel like it. That being said a lot of places have the line at +9.5 now and i am going to wait a little longer to see if i can get that line where i place my bets.
Will be putting the profit from the 1st game on the 2nd. Break even worst case scenario. Hope we win man! March 21, 2014, 04:39:39 PM
Robert Morris looks like it is going to be safe to lock in whenever you feel like it. That being said a lot of places have the line at +9.5 now and i am going to wait a little longer to see if i can get that line where i place my bets.
March 21, 2014, 04:39:00 PM
Woo! Was closer to the line though at the end then it should have been. Fell apart last 10 minutes.
March 21, 2014, 04:36:56 PM
LA Lafayette covers!
March 21, 2014, 03:53:01 PM
I do not plan on charging for my MLB plays early on if ever.
The MLB system (it is an actual system) i use has been around and most people know about it. Even if you did not know about it you would be able to quickly catch on to it.
Also i came across it very late in the season and therefore i have a very limited tracking size on it. It is also something that i can not backtrack. I looked but the stats i use are not available for back tracking so its not possible.
Also it does not have the winning % that i have in college basketball. In fact, no other sport i bet on has a high of % as college basketball.
For the limited tracking i had last year it was hitting 59%. But that was very limited tracking. Something like 40 plays and the juice could sometimes be as high as like -140 on some of the plays.
The MLB system (it is an actual system) i use has been around and most people know about it. Even if you did not know about it you would be able to quickly catch on to it.
Also i came across it very late in the season and therefore i have a very limited tracking size on it. It is also something that i can not backtrack. I looked but the stats i use are not available for back tracking so its not possible.
Also it does not have the winning % that i have in college basketball. In fact, no other sport i bet on has a high of % as college basketball.
For the limited tracking i had last year it was hitting 59%. But that was very limited tracking. Something like 40 plays and the juice could sometimes be as high as like -140 on some of the plays.
March 21, 2014, 03:29:02 PM
I calculate my spreads using a calculation that has been around for a very long time and is not new to sports betting. However i have added an additional stat to it that i feel gives a more accurate number.
The calculation i use for NCAAF spreads is something i would imagine no one has ever thought of. However, there is a flaw in it that i noticed last season. It is very very very accurate in certain situations. However, in other situations it is not accurate at all. I realized this hole about 3/4ths of the way through last season and i am working on pugging it but have not found a way to do it yet.
Biggest thing I admire about your plays is that your disciplined. Many people who start charging start making additional plays just to make sure they have that subscriber income coming still. Stick to your systems and I'll def start subscribing. For baseball though you should do a couple weeks for free to provide good sample size of your system for that for potential subscribers. I know I'm personally not profitable in NBA at all prob profitable to fade me actually but NFL I have made a sizable profit last four seasons. The calculation i use for NCAAF spreads is something i would imagine no one has ever thought of. However, there is a flaw in it that i noticed last season. It is very very very accurate in certain situations. However, in other situations it is not accurate at all. I realized this hole about 3/4ths of the way through last season and i am working on pugging it but have not found a way to do it yet.
March 21, 2014, 03:25:14 PM
I calculate my spreads using a calculation that has been around for a very long time and is not new to sports betting. However i have added an additional stat to it that i feel gives a more accurate number.
The calculation i use for NCAAF spreads is something i would imagine no one has ever thought of. However, there is a flaw in it that i noticed last season. It is very very very accurate in certain situations. However, in other situations it is not accurate at all. I realized this hole about 3/4ths of the way through last season and i am working on pugging it but have not found a way to do it yet.
The calculation i use for NCAAF spreads is something i would imagine no one has ever thought of. However, there is a flaw in it that i noticed last season. It is very very very accurate in certain situations. However, in other situations it is not accurate at all. I realized this hole about 3/4ths of the way through last season and i am working on pugging it but have not found a way to do it yet.
March 21, 2014, 03:21:13 PM
Curious Brian, what did your system say the line SHOULD be for each game? Like truly no value, 50/50 chance for each side.
I can tell you what my numbers came out to be when calculating the spread. The number that i get when calculating the spread on the Lafayette game is Creighton -13
However, that is just a small factor when i pick my games and is just one of the many factors that have to line up in order for a team to be a play.
March 21, 2014, 02:55:09 PM
Curious Brian, what did your system say the line SHOULD be for each game? Like truly no value, 50/50 chance for each side.
March 21, 2014, 02:16:42 PM
youre a fucking idiot.
March 21, 2014, 02:03:31 PM
Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread?
System vs. non-system uhhh
Good luck fellas...
Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge.
I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two.
I'm (9-0) and up a bunch of BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC
You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you.
You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic.
However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck!
and then he refunds...the 3 dollars. lol
LOL...selling picks for $3. I wonder how much his units are...
March 21, 2014, 02:01:38 PM
Putting half a coin on Lafayette to win .46. If it wins putting .46 on 2nd game, of it loses putting .25 on the 2nd. Prob .01-.02 tip if both win.
Specific amount would depend on how stressful / close the games are for covering.
Specific amount would depend on how stressful / close the games are for covering.
March 21, 2014, 02:00:23 PM
Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread?
System vs. non-system uhhh
Good luck fellas...
Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge.
I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two.
I'm (9-0) and up a bunch of BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC
You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you.
You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic. However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck!
Please show me losing picks? I have a posted track record that is publicly posted before the games start if i am not selling that day and the days i am selling are posted literally right after tip off.
So im confused where you are getting losing picks. As everyone that has purchased picks from me will tell you that i have made them money and i have stuck to my word. I sent back refunds on a losing day and continued to give them free picks until i got them above 50%.
So again, you do not know what you are talking about.
Also congrats on 9-0. You are betting ML favorites. You are risking 1.5 - 4 units to win 1. I have skimmed through your thread and seen in the past you would risk 20 - 40 units to win 1. Keep it up, it will not end well
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