March 21
I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong. I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays.
3pm EST
LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)
930pm EST
Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)
Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers.
It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off. I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again. The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers. Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play.
For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above. The line right now is +14. The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers (http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx). The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow. If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play. If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play. I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now. It only matters what the closing line is on covers. That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play.
If you have any questions about this please ask them. I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game.
I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning. There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games. I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side.
As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays.
Good Luck!
I have a question as to why the closing line matters so much. The system looks for value in plays as all systems do. If you see LA Lafayette at +14 now and your system says +13.5 or higher + wise is +EV why wouldn't you book it now? Why does the closing line matter so much? Does the system not like when the public is heavy on the side you are on? Don't want you to discuss your system obviously but if you could share why the closing line matters so much for your system when your system would say +14 right now would have a lot of value for Lafayette.I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong. I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays.
3pm EST
LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)
930pm EST
Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)
Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers.
It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off. I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again. The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers. Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play.
For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above. The line right now is +14. The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers (http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx). The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow. If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play. If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play. I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now. It only matters what the closing line is on covers. That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play.
If you have any questions about this please ask them. I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game.
I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning. There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games. I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side.
As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays.
Good Luck!
Going to tail both plays though regardless, hopefully you go 2-0 to finish the season. Hopefully you bet a hundred or couple hundred worth too with your system bets. Always wondered if your betting twenty bills, hundreds, or even thousands per bet because your ROI is incredibly high.