Topic: Brian123321's Sports Betting Picks | All Sports | Full Tracking Inside - page 22. (Read 25770 times)

But you would agree that people who rely on systems to make their sports betting plays cannot properly handicap games, right?

and then he refunds...the 3 dollars. lol

The system is not elaborate.

I also do incorporate my own spreads that i calculate (which would be handicapping).  However, i dont pick games purely on my spreads.  I take other factors into account.  That is why i refer to it as a system.

I'm (9-0) and up a bunch of BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC

You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored.  I'll continue to ignore you.  

You're a tout selling losing picks.  That's all I'm going to say on that topic.

However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck!  

Not necessary unless you bet enough to be able to afford it.  There was a guy in here who purchased my picks early on that was new to sports betting.  He didnt understand i was betting spreads and thought i was betting MLs.  I assume he thought this because it looks like the few other people on this forum who post picks post ML picks.  Anyways he went 0-3 when i had actually gone 1-2 and then he didnt receive my 4-0 day picks soon enough to get back to 5-2 like the other people did who purchased early on.

Anyways that besides the point.  He had sent me a message saying he lost a total of 0.01 on the 3 bets.  The original plays he purchased cost 0.01 so he should not have been purchasing the plays because he didnt bet enough per game to make the purchase worth it.  So basically all i am saying is tips are appreciated if you can afford to send them but dont send them because you feel like you need to.  Just like dont purchase my picks if you cant afford to bet enough to make them worth it.  Find some people to throw down with.

I agree with you about ML favorites, but wouldn't you also agree that creating elaborate "system"s is also indicative of people who cannot properly handicap games?

Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well?  I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge.  

I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites.  The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games.  Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made.  If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it.  But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore.  Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two.

If you go 2-0 I'll be sending you a tip by the way.

Please link the other thread you are talking about.  I have only made 2 threads in this forum.  The first being this exact same thread that i moved over to this sub forum because of the suggestion from users.  I didnt change it at all and it clearly shows the link to the previous thread in my first post.

Please explain and link thread you are talking about

His system plays have done amazing. Lafayette is a system play. No brainer to tail with a great ROI so far. Hopefully it wins!

The stats did not change at all for the Rob Morris game so we are good to go.

Tread lightly when tailing this guy.  Have you seen his other thread?    

System vs. non-system uhhh  

Good luck fellas...

Forgot to check the new numbers like i said i would.  However, i just went back and skimmed over them without calculating them for the LA Lafayette game and the only numbers that changed, changed in LA Lafayettes favor.  Going back to check the Robert Morris game now.

Going to tail, good luck to us!

Locked on LA Lafayette +13.5

bump my plays

This is exactly correct.

Another reason why i backtrack using the closing lines is because the stats that i need to use will not be updated until the next day.  So in theory i would never be able to get the most current stats before the lines opened.

Furthermore when im developing a system, backtracking it and repeating over and over and over again until i find the right combination of numbers that make sense and provide consistent winners it takes too long go through the line movements of every single game to see if the line had been at a certain point at some time since it open until it closed that would have made it a play and if it did get to that point whether it would have won or lost.

For example, right now, i am currently in the process of recreating my NCAAF strategy.  I have already put in probably a total of 24 hours into developing a new system and have yet to get it right.  A lot of that time is spent going back and backtracking every game over the season to see how the system would have done last year and the year before that and sometimes the year before so that i can be sure that it is an actual winning system and can constantly pick winners year after year.  It would take me even more time if i had to look at the line movements of every game also.  It is not something i am willing to do, it just takes way to much time.

One thing i did create this year for the basketball season was a program that would load up a CSV full of stats of every team that i update daily so that i can now just type in the names of both teams playing and have it spit out the scores of each team.  This is something i used to do by hand.  I would have a number of tabs open for the stats of both teams i was comparing and go through each tab entering the numbers into a spreadsheet that would then calculate the spread.  This has saved me a ton of time and after seeing how incredibly useful it was i used the same code to write one up for my football calculations.  So that in itself already saves me a ton of time when backtracking systems.  The main time suck now is developing the systems and then going back through every single game for the past few years to make sure it works.

Ah, you have no records of opening or throughout-the-day lines so for back testing and current testing as you go to stay precise with how you collected your system information you have to use only the closing line. Gotcha, makes sense now.

The reasoning of the closing line is because I used the closing lines when back tracking the system.  Basically i have a proven track record using those lines.  For example, when backtracking since i am using the closing lines the situation like the example above could have happened and most likely did happen tons of times.  However, i do not know what that record is because if the closing line did not match up i never went back to see if the line had moved from playable line earlier in the day.  Because i have no record of this i am not willing to "gamble" and assume that since it is a better line it means that i would make the play.

I dont know if that makes any sense but i also do not how to describe it any better.

When backtracking i used the closing lines so if a closing line did not match up i moved on.  I dont know if earlier in the day that line had actually been a playable line or not.  If it was i dont know if i would have won or lost because i did not track it because the closing line was a no play line.