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Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 65. (Read 198958 times)

full member
Activity: 230
Merit: 100
Report will be at usual time (right after dividend gos out and I've checked everything balances).  This is just a brief note in advance so I don't have to type it later.

A total of 5000 each of MINING and SELLING were bought back by DMS today.  The effect of that has been that NAV/U after today's dividend will be higher than they were at the start of the day (as we buy back at a bit below NAV/U).  If we have more sell-backs then I'll need to pull some of our investment out of J-D so as not to go over 10% invested there.

The sell-backs are working as intended - they provide a mechanism to prevent total collapse of prices when someone heavily dumps one or the other of MINING/SELLING (as soon as it falls a bit below sell-back price people step in to place bids and make a profit selling back pairs).

So, how many of the 5000 did you buy back from yourself? 3000?  Grin  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).


I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.

I wrote average difficulty jump (in the future)... but you are right, the difficulty jump estimations of MINING (buyers) and even more from other PMBs have always been conservative, but now we're heading in the right direction....

Apologies, I misinterpreted what you wrote. Smiley
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1066.908422
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.32546264
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.12934983
Just-Dice Balance    173.10613987
TOTAL ASSETS    1,654.39937403
   
Outstanding MINING   48912
Outstanding SELLING   48912
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   51650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,650.24428013
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03195052
Days Dividend Post Div   397.16
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,650.24428013
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03195052
PURCHASE selling price    0.03355
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03131
   
J-D House profit at report   2531
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Report will be at usual time (right after dividend gos out and I've checked everything balances).  This is just a brief note in advance so I don't have to type it later.

A total of 5000 each of MINING and SELLING were bought back by DMS today.  The effect of that has been that NAV/U after today's dividend will be higher than they were at the start of the day (as we buy back at a bit below NAV/U).  If we have more sell-backs then I'll need to pull some of our investment out of J-D so as not to go over 10% invested there.

The sell-backs are working as intended - they provide a mechanism to prevent total collapse of prices when someone heavily dumps one or the other of MINING/SELLING (as soon as it falls a bit below sell-back price people step in to place bids and make a profit selling back pairs).
full member
Activity: 230
Merit: 100

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).


I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.

I wrote average difficulty jump (in the future)... but you are right, the difficulty jump estimations of MINING (buyers) and even more from other PMBs have always been conservative, but now we're heading in the right direction....
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).


I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.
full member
Activity: 230
Merit: 100
Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.
I think you might make some money this way. 0.01 actually seems like a reasonable price especially considering the next difficulty increase will probably be less than 10%. Because of this prediction I actually liquidated my SELLING for ~12% profit over the last month (I paid a lot @ .042 before the first dividend  Tongue) and invested elsewhere.

Yeah well someone just snatched up my ask at .01458 that I paid mid .012 to low .013 for, so looks like this experiment will end shortly and profitably for me.

I guess you are very very happy you already sold... your previous plan going long on MINING would otherwise have made you about -40%  Roll Eyes

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).

It seems that the upcoming Asicminer competition (Labcoin, BTCGarden, perhaps ActiveMining) is first anticipated by DMS shareholders. There are some interesting weeks to come...
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
One more question: If the price of MINING dropped by 90% the day before SELLING got dividends, how would that effect SELLING's dividend? What if it dropped the day after the dividend?

The market price has no effect on dividends.
full member
Activity: 127
Merit: 100
One more question: If the price of MINING dropped by 90% the day before SELLING got dividends, how would that effect SELLING's dividend? What if it dropped the day after the dividend?
full member
Activity: 127
Merit: 100

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.



I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

They don't get paid as a special dividend they get added to capital - and they're added into the NAV on a daily basis not when they end.

All the time that difficulty is rising at more than a few % per week the profits from investment go to SELLING in practical terms.  MINING's dividend is unchanged - being the PPS equivalent of 1 MH/S.  SELLING's dividend is what's left over after paying MINING (whilst maintaining a 400 day dividend buffer for MINING) so any profit from investment increases the size of the dividends SELLING receives.

PURCHASE gets all dividends paid to MINING AND SELLING - so it also benefits from profits from our investments.

Very nice explanation, thanks.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.



I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

They don't get paid as a special dividend they get added to capital - and they're added into the NAV on a daily basis not when they end.

All the time that difficulty is rising at more than a few % per week the profits from investment go to SELLING in practical terms.  MINING's dividend is unchanged - being the PPS equivalent of 1 MH/S.  SELLING's dividend is what's left over after paying MINING (whilst maintaining a 400 day dividend buffer for MINING) so any profit from investment increases the size of the dividends SELLING receives.

PURCHASE gets all dividends paid to MINING AND SELLING - so it also benefits from profits from our investments.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.



I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

The short answer is 'definitely to MINING and PURCHASE, possibly to SELLING as well'.

The longer answer is all dividends from investments get ploughed back into the fund. Dividends for MINING and PURCHASE are paid daily at the contracted rate (currently .00008045BTC/share/day). Dividends for SELLING only occur if there's enough in the kitty to pay at least 410 days worth of dividends to MINING at the currently contracted rate (currently there isn't, it's like 397 days or something). When the next difficulty increase occurs it looks likely SELLING will get a dividend, too.
full member
Activity: 127
Merit: 100

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.



I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1226.965914
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.19229470
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.06366410
Just-Dice Balance    172.74218403
TOTAL ASSETS    1,813.89405702
   
Outstanding MINING   53912
Outstanding SELLING   53912
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   56650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,809.33672751
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03193887
Days Dividend Post Div   397.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,809.33672751
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03193887
PURCHASE selling price    0.03354
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03130
   
J-D House profit at report   2430
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Sold   201
Swapped   0
Total   201
Price   0.03366
Total   6.76566
Less Fee   6.75212868
Man Fee   0.20256386

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1231.365861
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.92824826
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.00070317
Just-Dice Balance    171.90295708
TOTAL ASSETS    1,821.12776920
   
Outstanding MINING   54032
Outstanding SELLING   54032
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   56770
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,816.56078603
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03199860
Days Dividend Post Div   397.76
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,816.56078603
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03199860
PURCHASE selling price    0.03360
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03136
   
J-D House profit at report   2246

Dividends took ages to process today - they were set correctly but didn't even start paying until :10 and then went very slowly.  Guess there's heavy load on the servers.

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1229.367208
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.85838545
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.93435363
Just-Dice Balance    171.08161697
TOTAL ASSETS    1,818.17156410
   
Outstanding MINING   53888
Outstanding SELLING   53888
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56569
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,813.62075081
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03206033
Days Dividend Post Div   398.53
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,813.62075081
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03206033
PURCHASE selling price    0.03366
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03142
   
J-D House profit at report   2030
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?

I don''t check the markets to do that myself - but anyone who notices they can buy a MINING+SELLING for less than the sell-back price of a PURCHASE if free to buy them and send them to me to receive the buyback price.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?

Buybacks happen by sending pairs of MINING+SELLING (or PURCHASE) to Depriveds account on BTCT.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Changing avatars is currently not possible.
No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?
full member
Activity: 230
Merit: 100
The PURCHASE price is also updated every day.
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