[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 66.

BTCThousandaire

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Activity: 127

Merit: 100

Quote from: Rannasha on July 27, 2013, 03:20:56 AM

Quote from: BTCThousandaire on July 27, 2013, 03:16:00 AM

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

Sell PURCHASE to who? The buyback price for PURCHASE is updated with each dividend payment. If you intend to sell just before the SELLING dividend, you might as well buy only MINING, collect its dividends and then sell just before a difficulty change.

That would still be a risky strategy, as the price of MINING does fluctuate between difficulty adjustments, typically a gradual downward trend (though upward spikes also occur).

I don't really see where the 'guaranteed profit' comes from.

The price would not be the buyback price, but slightly lower. I see price dips where someone sold just under PURCHASE price.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Sold   170
Swapped   0
Total   170
Price   0.03379
Total   5.7443
Less Fee   5.7328114
Man Fee   0.171984342

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,233.12233941
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.71623349
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.86423648
Just-Dice Balance    170.27836447
TOTAL ASSETS    1,820.91117385

Outstanding MINING   53888
Outstanding SELLING   53888
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56569

Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332

NAV Post MINING Div    1,816.36036056
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03210876
Days Dividend Post Div   399.13
SELLING Dividend    -
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,816.36036056
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03210876
PURCHASE selling price    0.03371
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03147

J-D House profit at report   1869

Rannasha

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Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: BTCThousandaire on July 27, 2013, 03:16:00 AM

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

Sell PURCHASE to who? The buyback price for PURCHASE is updated with each dividend payment. If you intend to sell just before the SELLING dividend, you might as well buy only MINING, collect its dividends and then sell just before a difficulty change.

That would still be a risky strategy, as the price of MINING does fluctuate between difficulty adjustments, typically a gradual downward trend (though upward spikes also occur).

I don't really see where the 'guaranteed profit' comes from.

BTCThousandaire

full member

Activity: 127

Merit: 100

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

junkonator

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Activity: 149

Merit: 100

Quote from: Rannasha on July 26, 2013, 11:04:16 AM

The only reason for DMS to stop trading (other than Deprived quitting) is if the difficulty remains constant, decreases or only increases by very small amounts for quite some time.

Deprived quitting, btct.co going down, bugs in bitcoind, new legislation, big mining farms ceased and 51% attack come to mind. Also that way you don't have to have a btct.co account.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,232.09872756
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.59808900
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.80596113
Just-Dice Balance    170.16517716
TOTAL ASSETS    1,819.59795485

Outstanding MINING   53718
Outstanding SELLING   53718
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56399

Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332

NAV Post MINING Div    1,815.06081757
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03218250
Days Dividend Post Div   400.05
SELLING Dividend    -
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,815.06081757
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03218250
PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

J-D House profit at report   1847

Rannasha

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Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: junkonator on July 26, 2013, 10:57:32 AM

This time the link is right. http://bitbet.us/bet/487/dms-will-still-be-traded-at-the-end/
This is a bet that can be used to hedge against big diff-changes for selling/mining:

Quote

"The fund Deprived Mining Speculation on BTCT (that is: https://btct.co/security/DMS.MINING , https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING and https://btct.co/security/DMS.PURCHASE) will still be traded at the end of 2013. "

The only reason for DMS to stop trading (other than Deprived quitting) is if the difficulty remains constant, decreases or only increases by very small amounts for quite some time. As long as the difficulty increases by just a few % each time (on average), there will be enough assets in the fund to keep paying a years worth of MINING dividends.

And if you're betting on the difficulty not increasing more than a few %, then you can just buy MINING instead of placing a bet on bitbet.

junkonator

full member

Activity: 149

Merit: 100

This time the link is right. http://bitbet.us/bet/487/dms-will-still-be-traded-at-the-end/
This is a bet that can be used to hedge against big diff-changes for selling/mining:

Quote

"The fund Deprived Mining Speculation on BTCT (that is: https://btct.co/security/DMS.MINING , https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING and https://btct.co/security/DMS.PURCHASE) will still be traded at the end of 2013. "

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Just a note on buy-backs.

I DO offer buy-backs for equal numbers of MINING and SELLING - as well as for PURCHASE. The PURCHASE ones are handled via the market, where there's a Bid up at the price listed in each day's report. You can get the same price for 1 MINING + 1 SELLING as well, however I will only do 1 such redemption per day per person.

So if you have a bunch of MINING or SELLING and want to get out of your position, DO consider buying the other half and redeeming them via me : on occasions that may well get you more than selling what you already hold.

There is no way I can ever buy back only one type (of MINING/SELLING) as I don't define the prices for them and there have to always be an equal number of them in circulation.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Sold   14
Swapped   0
Total   14
Price   0.03392
Total   0.47488
Less Fee   0.47393024
Man Fee   0.014217907

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,242.97011711
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.45889382
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.73730243
Just-Dice Balance    168.81111024
TOTAL ASSETS    1,828.90742360

Outstanding MINING   53918
Outstanding SELLING   53918
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56599

Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332

NAV Post MINING Div    1,824.35419689
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03223298
Days Dividend Post Div   400.67
SELLING Dividend    -
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,824.35419689
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03223298
PURCHASE selling price    0.03384
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03159

J-D House profit at report   1584

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Sold   3195
Swapped   0
Total   3195
Price   0.03379
Total   107.95905
Less Fee   107.7431319
Man Fee   3.232293957

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,259.46595650
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.34013100
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.67872209
Just-Dice Balance    168.57606624
TOTAL ASSETS    1,844.99087583

Outstanding MINING   53918
Outstanding SELLING   53918
Outstanding PURCHASE   3057
Effective Units   56975

Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332

NAV Post MINING Div    1,840.40740100
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03230202
Days Dividend Post Div   401.53
SELLING Dividend    -
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,840.40740100
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03230202
PURCHASE selling price    0.03392
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03166

J-D House profit at report   1534

Very good profit on J-D today - meaning value of PURCHASE rose by 1.5 days' dividends even after paying today's MINING dividend.

FloatesMcgoates

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: somestranger on July 24, 2013, 12:16:56 AM

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 23, 2013, 09:58:37 PM

Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.

I think you might make some money this way. 0.01 actually seems like a reasonable price especially considering the next difficulty increase will probably be less than 10%. Because of this prediction I actually liquidated my SELLING for ~12% profit over the last month (I paid a lot @ .042 before the first dividend Tongue

) and invested elsewhere.

Yeah well someone just snatched up my ask at .01458 that I paid mid .012 to low .013 for, so looks like this experiment will end shortly and profitably for me.

somestranger

hero member

Activity: 487

Merit: 500

Are You Shpongled?

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 23, 2013, 09:58:37 PM

Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.

I think you might make some money this way. 0.01 actually seems like a reasonable price especially considering the next difficulty increase will probably be less than 10%. Because of this prediction I actually liquidated my SELLING for ~12% profit over the last month (I paid a lot @ .042 before the first dividend Tongue

) and invested elsewhere.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 23, 2013, 09:58:37 PM

Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.

DMS.MINING seems to be well on the way back to where it was a day ago. If there is a stagnation it will be interesting to see how long it lasts. 100TH have been delayed by another couple of weeks according to recent reports.

FloatesMcgoates

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: BTCThousandaire on July 23, 2013, 06:07:25 PM

Why was trading halted on PURCHASE? Was there a price change with the halt?

I did the halt later than usual today. But I always halt PURCHASE when a SELLING dividend gos out if there's any bids over what the new Ask price for PURCHASE will be - as I can be certain whoever placed those bids wouldn't want them filled.

I don't halt on MINING or SELLING as I don't (and can't) fix a price on those.

somestranger

hero member

Activity: 487

Merit: 500

Are You Shpongled?

Quote from: BTCThousandaire on July 23, 2013, 06:07:25 PM

Why was trading halted on PURCHASE? Was there a price change with the halt?

Yes. Every time a SELLING dividend goes out trading is halted while the price is adjusted.

BTCThousandaire

full member

Activity: 127

Merit: 100

Why was trading halted on PURCHASE? Was there a price change with the halt?

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Sold   967
Swapped   0
Total   967
Price   0.039422
Total   38.121074
Less Fee   38.04483185
Man Fee   1.141344956

Units   53800
Excess Div   0.00001566
Refund   0.842508

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,444.94443172
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.19674236
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.60799494
Just-Dice Balance    158.89987361
TOTAL ASSETS    2,020.57904263

Outstanding MINING   51003
Outstanding SELLING   51003
Outstanding PURCHASE   2797
Effective Units   53800

Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332

NAV Post MINING Div    2,016.25098742
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03747678
Days Dividend Post Div   465.86
SELLING Dividend    0.00529794
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,731.22208419
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03217885
PURCHASE selling price    0.03378779
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03153527

J-D House profit at report   -312

stripykitteh

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Quote from: Deprived on July 23, 2013, 09:18:42 AM

You've understood the rule fine - correct dividend under the contract IS what you calculated above.

What you miss is that I previously promised that if difficulty changed prior to midnight (but after previous day's dividend) then I'd pay the difference between old and new dividend myself - so MINING investors never got a smaller dividend than investors in TAT.VM.

Report will show the correct new dividend in it - and I'll refund DMS for the difference between the two (that calculation will also be in the report - as it was the previous time this happened).

So for SELLING holders no need to worry that you're paying extra to MINING than you should. MINING WILL be getting more than contract says they should - but the extra comes from me personally.

Ah, thanks for the rapid explanation!

Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 66. (Read 198958 times)