Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 72. (Read 198958 times)

The last trade at the time of writing this was 0.028249 BTC and it was trading between 0.028 and 0.031 for most of the past round. So, it hasn't really lost much value at all.

Impossible to say really. This has only been the third dividend payment. The first one was a bit bigger than this one, but prices were quite volatile then since DMS was pretty new. The last payment was rather small, so the price didn't move much. And that's all there is for past history.

Ok boys help me out here.  I just got the dividend payout, but now of course the price has dropped sharply.  In fact I have essentially lost money, since the dividend is less than the % share drop.

Has it been the trend in the past for the share price to regain it's value relatively quickly afterwards?

Very true; I'm valuing MINING at .00875 at the moment, so even .031 for SELLING would still manage a small profit at that amount.

Some more of those 20%+ diff increases and even this guy will profit... I think if you're not into trading, you can't do anything wrong with buying SELLING at market price (so far). No matter at what time and price you bought SELLING in the past weeks, if you sum up paid dividends and current market price, you are always up at least a few % (or more). This could change of course if we see some diff jumps < 10%.

And now lets sit back and watch the other mining assets drop another 20-30% in the next hours... 

Yeah, was very surprised to see that... someone that doesn't understand the NAV/U aspect perhaps?

Well some guy actually just bought up to .031 so if you had asks up you didn't miss anything

Yeah... the usual suspects... 

Guess I need to work on my reflexes next div! Still happy with it, though-

You can't win all the time

Damnit - who sold into the bids immediately after div was paid? Thats my part! 

Sold   1177
Swapped   0
Total   1177
Price   0.048759
Total   57.389343
Less Fee   57.27456431
Man Fee   1.718236929

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1496.221803
12581 LTC-ATF.B1    125.81000000
Coinlenders CD    201.76530809
Just-Dice Balance    108.23866033
TOTAL ASSETS    1,932.03577165
   
Outstanding MINING   40943
Outstanding SELLING   40943
Outstanding PURCHASE   634
Effective Units   41577
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,928.03977667
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04637275
Days Dividend Post Div   482.49
SELLING Dividend    0.00792846
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,598.39799215
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03844428
PURCHASE selling price    0.04036650
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03767540

As noted, delay was because I hadn't scheduled the MINING dividend for PURCHASE which meant wallet balance didn't get to where spreadsheet said it should (it was less than 0.1 BTC off but wrong by enough not to be due to rounding of dividends).  Every day before posting the report I make sure the apreadsheet matches what actually happened.  With a SELLING dividend I do so after paying the MINING dividend - which found my error today.  Only 2nd time they haven't matched - previous one was where someone had bought PURCHASE right as I was cancelling the order so my outstanding count was wrong.

Don't forget to re-enable PURCHASE.

SLight delay is because the wallet balance didn't exactly match what was in the spreadsheet.  Turns out I hadn't scheduled todays MINING dividend.  That's going through now - after which everything should balance and SELLING dividends will go out.

It's in 5 hours from your post and you could estimate the investment profit from the last report. Or just wait 5 hours.

Happy to see the high SELLING Dividend in 6 5 hours! ( from that post)

any estimates of winnings about the investment stuff?

The argument boils down to this:

DMS.MINING is less prone to profit from ignorance than any other mining asset.

This doesn't make it actually worth less than the others, it makes the others more prone to being overvalued.

All of this is fine, it's how I understood it.

My argument is, and always was, that DMS.Mining is not a mining asset and acts like one in times of difficulty increases only. If difficulty stops rising, DMS.Mining will stop acting like a mining asset (and, in fact, stop completely). It doesn't matter whether they get a payout, whether a rise is likely for some time still, or whether there is a failsafe for what would then be considered idiots buying DMS.Selling. It is not a mining asset, and acts like one as long as difficulty keeps rising only.

Does Average Joe, as a believer in the profitability of mining, understand this? If difficulty stopped rising, however, do you think prices would remain at 50% of a year's return? They'd shoot through the roof, except that DMS.Mining would close down. Suddenly, when Average Joe is proven right and that mining is indeed profitable, he'll have to sell DMS.Mining as quickly as possible to get into an asset that doesn't close its doors in the next month or so. The 200% proceed he'd get from the closing wouldn't even be close to covering what he'd need to get into mining again. A 200% rise in prices would still mean that assets yield 67% return, which is mind-boggling to any investor.

Can you see my argument of why I don't want to compare BFMines to DMS.Mining? One is a mining asset that does real mining (with the security of PMBs payouts, even) with the potential upsides of that, whereas the other is a mathematical construct that pulls the ejection seat if profitability is an option.

.b

Missed that part.

Not to prove mining is unprofitable but that PMBs were horribly over-priced - and offer a more reasonably priced alternative (and allow those who believed them over-priced to express that with BTC rather than just with forum posts).

If you buy a mining rig and mine with it you may make some profit.  If you buy its output at 20 times the cost of the hardware then likely you won't.  Not the same thing

The part that we're nowhere near the levelling off yet.  So dividends AFTER the levelling off represent a very small part of ALL dividends that will be received.  If there was any reasonable chance of levelling off (by which I mean less than about 3% rise per difficulty change on average) in the near  future then DMS couldn't work - for the reasons you describe.  But that's not where we are.

You also misunderstand how closure is likely to work - specifically that MINING get a years worth of dividends assuming ZERO increase as a lump sum.  Unless growth completely halts for a long time that's a pretty good final payment.

So yes - in a steady difficulty environment MINING wouldn't work.  But in a fast-rising difficulty it keeps up with payments well then (theoretically if SELLING act rationally) just as difficulty drops below a rate of 3% they get a payment of 365 days at CURRENT difficulty.

News-flash - there's these things called ASICs being made and as they arrive difficulty is rising a lot.  We aren't at - or near - steady difficulty : but it we were then each MINING share could receive 90% of the PURCHASE price very quickly - rather than in the years it would take to get the same from other PMBs.

Don't underestimate the value of 365 days of dividends immediately rather than waiting years for them whilst praying difficulty doesn't start rising fast again.  And they get paid that by contract (unless SELLING gamble and don't close - when MINING get more but not all at once) - I can't get off cheap by talking the market price down then buying back based on market price.

EDIT:  Short version is you're totally ignoring the value of CP-less cash now rather than CP-exposed cash trickled to you over years.