If someone wants to sell right now then yes - they'd make a heavy loss. But at least they CAN sell - on BFMINES there's next to zero bids above HALF the IPO price even though nothing has changed. So right now it's choice between selling at 20% below where it was yesterday or selling at 50% below where it was yesterday. And something in IPO which hasn't yet paid a single dividend or done anything shouldn't be dropping at all.
I was trying to show you that when it moves, DMS moves more than regular PMB assets because it was designed that way. It's a great asset; don't get me wrong, but by its design, it will move faster and probably further than what is reasonable from the facts.
Difficulty didn't go up the 37% that a drop of 28% should indicate. DMS is thus more volatile than other assets because emotion drives it further. It is a speculator's toy, perfect for its use, but carries additional risk. If today's numbers don't convince you of that risk, I don't know what would.
Also, I don't think I've ever said that DMS.Mining is more expensive for it's PMS-style mhs. I even used the most favorable numbers for straight PMBs when comparing the prices, _and_ I published them, showing that at the time, DMS.Mining was 8% cheaper than BFMines.
For people that saved those 8% that day, however, they have now lost 18% more than they had with TAT.VM or BFMines, in a worst case situation. My statement about added risk must therefore be true.
It may go up again, which is great for some, but the risk is there, and it is larger than for other comparable assets. That has been my argument, not one of price. DMS.Mining is currently much cheaper per PMB-style mhs. That cheapness, as demonstrated today, comes at a price. If you are willing to pay that price, you can save money.
.b
You can't have it both ways.
Either the price will recover - in which case they haven't made a loss.
Or it won't recover - in which case how can it keep happening? How much cheaper does it have to be before having to maybe wait a few days to sell is worth it?
And people who bought, saving that 8%, haven't lost it
unless they planned to sell now (there's a very minor exception to that if difficulty now dropped - but that's not what's happening). They'll receive exactly the same dividends as they'd have got if the price had doubled, halved or remained unchanged.
People buying PMBs or contracts buy an income stream. They still have it and its underlying value hasn't changed. What HAS changed is the price the market is trading it at.
There's precisely one reasonable scenario in which your agrument definitely makes sense (other than for a tiny minority of people with horrible cash-management skills). That's if BOTH of MINING and BFMINING were sginficantly over-priced at the start. In that scenario, a falling price of MINING represents the market realising it was over-priced - and BFMINING not reacting so fast gives investors there more time to get out, possibly losing less. Or it would if there were any bids.
If they weren't overpriced initially then MINING dropping BELOW a fair price isn't bad news at all as :
a) It will almost certainly recover once people realise it's underpriced.
b) The investor can buy more at bargain prices if they want.
The sole time it's THEN bad news is if they have an overwhelming need to sell right now (i.e. they're horrible at managing their money and shouldn't be touching ANY security without issuer-provided liquidity). But, as already pointed out, they can't sell any volume on BFMINES near starting price either (anyone in a desperate rush to sell needs bids waiting).
On the subject of percentages be careful what you look at when considering what people are reacting to. Some people are using sites that predict NEXT difficulty based on current hash-rate - those are suggesting a 20% rise next time as well, so they may be basing their judgment on that. I think thay's unwise - as with only a tiny sample since difficulty change there's no way to distinguish between increased has-power and good network luck. But don't assume all price movements are necessarily just because of what HAS happened - some people factor in other things (not all of which SHOULD be factored in of course).
