Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 70. (Read 198958 times)

Total deposited into Just-Dice was 160.   We're down 15 and a bit on it - but some of that was made back by selling some LTC-ATF.B1 at 15-20% over face value.

Even without what was made back it would only be a a loss of under 1% of capital.  We've made more than that just on markup on new sales of Purchase since last dividend (approx 200 in sales at 2% markup is 40 BTC gain for those already invested), so I can't see it being a rational reason for any loss in SELLING value.  Though all investment losses SHOULD apply to SELLING - but, as already noted, SELLING by default  should rise slowly anyway due to sales of new PURCHASE (if we assume difficulty isn't about to go flat before next difficulty change).

There IS one obvious reason why prices would drop - that's if the market agreed in general that prices were actually correct and represented a fair split between Mining/Selling.  In that situation everyone would be thinking prices were about fair - meaning they'd actually like to sell (as no real gain holding when prices are fair - as you just take on CP risk for small profit).  I find it hard to believe that's the case - given PMBs are selling at far more per MH/s - but it's definitely one possibility.

I'll train to explain it with an example with imaginary numbers.

Say PURCHASE sold at 105 (100 + management fee and markup)
Then ignoring profits there's be 100 that would be split between Mining and Selling eventually.
If everyone agreed Mining was worth 60 and Selling was worth 40 then noone would want to pay more than 60 for mining or more than 40 for selling.  And most people would rather sell what they had at 60 or 40 than just hold it to get back not a lot more over a longer period of time.

If you THEN add in J-D making a loss and people decide that in fact they won't make much profit if any, then you end up with the prices falling so that they end up BELOW the cost of a Purchase less fees.

But for that to happen needs everyone to agree on what a fair price is for Mining -  and I really don't think we've got to that point as there's other PMBs selling for significantly more.  Now that difference COULD be that all the buyers just don't shop around, or that they don't trust me or that they believe difficulty is about to go flat making Mining no longer pay out like a PMB.  But I think the difference is too large for that to be the case - which suggests to me there's still no commonly accepted value for the future output of PMBs and hence no consensus on value for Mining (and thus for Selling as well).

From memory another 60BTC was added. But as the poster above me has stated the amount lost on just-dice is fairly insignificant in the grand scheme of things and we may have recovered from that loss by the time dividends come around. Although you always need to remember there is a chance that we could lose more money on just-dice.

Around 10% is invested in just-dice and a maximum of 15% was lost... less than 2% of the total funds were lost which is insignificant. We could be in the black by the time SELLING dividends go out.

I'm not sure that was the rational thing to do. The losses in just-dice are already reflected in the PURCHASE price and therefore are probably already reflected in the SELLING price. In other words, you probably sold after the drop, not before it.

Yeah, pretty bummed about that. Hoping for an upswing in the next week.


Was just going to ask that - It would be good to know how much we're short

How much are we in for at Just Dice?  I know we started with 100 and that Deprived added more at some point, but I can't seem to find a post showing how much we added?

Investing in something that you don't understand is not very smart.

This round's dividends for Selling will be significantly lower than usual because of massive investment losses on just-dice and low volume in general, that is why I sold out of Selling at least.

There are very few investments that can guarantee that you won't lose money, and the ones that do pay 0.05% interest. This is not one of those investments.

You and me both....I think many people don't.

I made about 4 BTC on SELLING last week and immediately the share dropped and has CONTINUED to drop.  I'm actually in the red by about 2 BTC on this investment. 

I guess I just don't understand how it works.

Likely someone who wanted BTC in a rush for something and didn't have time to wait for an Ask to fill - it happens sometimes.

WTF is going on with SELLING? Trades at 0.022 and below while MINING is at 0.015-0.016? 

Meanwhile difficulty tends to jump another 20%+ in a few days... any valid arguments concerning those prices?

Report late - as I was out again today (dividends went through on time as I'd scheduled them).  There was 1 transfer not done at time of dividend payment - have manually sent that person their missed dividend.  I should be back to usual schedule tomorrow.

Sold   487
Swapped   0
Total   487
Price   0.039759
Total   19.362633
Less Fee   19.32390773
Man Fee   0.579717232

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,344.67837872
11417 LTC-ATF.B1    114.17000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    202.55914917
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.29349900
Just-Dice Balance    146.43392686
TOTAL ASSETS    1,908.13495375
   
Outstanding MINING   48950
Outstanding SELLING   48950
Outstanding PURCHASE   1637
Effective Units   50587
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,903.27300127
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03762376
Days Dividend Post Div   391.46
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,903.27300127
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03762376
PURCHASE selling price    0.03950494
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03687128

Nvm, i found it.

Hi. I'm sorry if this question has already been answered, but how do i swap a dms.purchase for one dms.mining and one dms.selling?

Sold   1060
Swapped   0
Total   1060
Price   0.039806
Total   42.19436
Less Fee   42.10997128
Man Fee   1.263299138

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,330.74996168
11417 LTC-ATF.B1    114.17000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    202.42491432
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.22728701
Just-Dice Balance    154.32265135
TOTAL ASSETS    1,901.89481436
   
Outstanding MINING   48569
Outstanding SELLING   48569
Outstanding PURCHASE   1531
Effective Units   50100
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,897.07966780
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03786586
Days Dividend Post Div   393.98
SELLING Dividend    -        
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,897.07966780
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03786586
PURCHASE selling price    0.03975915
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03710854

Dividends have been scheduled for over half an hour now - just got to wait until BTC-TC processes them.

MINING dividend coming shortly.  Had to go out this afternoon - thought I'd be back half an hour before dividend but ended up only just getting back.  Am just updating all the math for the spreadsheet then will pay the dividends manually.

Sorry - got side-tracked on something else.  It's up now.