Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 71. (Read 198958 times)

Where's the PURCHASE offer? No ask orders at BTCT 

Sold   121
Swapped   0
Total   121
Price   0.040033
Total   4.843993
Less Fee   4.834305014
Man Fee   0.14502915

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,294.61642477
11417 LTC-ATF.B1    114.17000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    202.29066128
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.16106604
Just-Dice Balance    152.59071648
TOTAL ASSETS    1,863.82886857
   
Outstanding MINING   47861
Outstanding SELLING   47861
Outstanding PURCHASE   1179
Effective Units   49040
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,859.11559936
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03791019
Days Dividend Post Div   394.44
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,859.11559936
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03791019
PURCHASE selling price    0.03980570
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03715198

Sold   571
Swapped   0
Total   571
Price   0.040172
Total   22.938212
Less Fee   22.89233558
Man Fee   0.686770067

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1294.628725
11417 LTC-ATF.B1    114.17000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7   202.1580662
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.09566289
Just-Dice Balance    158.76302688
TOTAL ASSETS    1,869.81548082
   
Outstanding MINING   47859
Outstanding SELLING   47859
Outstanding PURCHASE   1060
Effective Units   48919
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,865.11384101
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03812657
Days Dividend Post Div   396.69
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,865.11384101
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03812657
PURCHASE selling price    0.04003290
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03736404

Sold   463
Swapped   0
Total   463
Price   0.04035
Total   18.68205
Less Fee   18.6446859
Man Fee   0.559340577

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1270.200239
11608 LTC-ATF.B1    116.08000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    202.02317061
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.02932904
Just-Dice Balance    161.41629041
TOTAL ASSETS    1,849.74902927
   
Outstanding MINING   47344
Outstanding SELLING   47344
Outstanding PURCHASE   1004
Effective Units   48348
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,849.74902927
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03825906
Days Dividend Post Div   398.07
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,849.74902927
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03825906
PURCHASE selling price    0.04017201
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03749388

Large drop in days of dividend left today - due to the losses on J-D (we lost about 10 BTC but have made back about 3 of them already on there).  Report is same as usual other than the dividend not being deducted in it - as the balance at start already represents balance after the dividends were paid.

I didn'#t hold any PURCHASE for transfers at midnight - looks like I did transfers out right before then, last one being:

2013-07-13 23:59:48    DMS.SELLING    transfer-out

So I finished catching up 12 seconds before the dividend triggered.

Noone noticed it in advance = or even noticed it had happened, but today's dividend went out at midnight.  Only just noticed myself.  Looks like I failed to set the time and only set the date.

I'm not going to try to work out what was sold at midnight etc to provide accounts for that time - there'll be days when I won't be around to produce accounts anyway (it's only really important for days where SELLING dividend is due).

I'm going to check to see if I held any PURCHASE sent in fro transfer at midnight (in which case I'll manually send them the dividend they missed).  Then I'll produce a shortened report showing no dividend but current value etc.  That won't be until after the scheduled dividend time - as PURCHASE dividend was set for correct time so hasn't paid out yet.

The transfers for increased investments went through and have now been applied - so it'll show a higher JD balance and two Coinlenders CDs (I've added the dates at which they end into the spradsheet).

Deprived,

I am writing a website about Bitcoin for audience in the Czech Republic and a question I get a lot is: "How much money should I keep in crypto currencies?"
Aside from the usual recommendations like "what you can afford to lose" what is your opinion on that? What share of your assets do you keep in crypto? What would you recommend to someone who doesn't observe the market every day, but, let's say, every week. And what about someone who reads about BTC several times a month?

I'm sure other investors in your securities will be interested in your answer as well.

Cheers

If it encourages more betters ("I want to make money on JD like that guy!") and gets rid of depositors ("Gah I'm not going to lose money again") then that's good (and is what has been happening). It would be interesting if the opposite happened however - betters believed that since the house lost a lot before, the house is going to win next and depositors deposit thinking that the invisible strings are going to pull the losses back to profits.

Copy that, thanks

No, those haven't gone out yet (EDIT:  I did the withdrawals shortly after my post aboit it but burnside hasn't processed them yet).

It's to do with the 320+ BTC dividend paid to SELLING yesterday lol.  The dividends come from BTC balance - not out of thin air.

As stated earlier, he put more into investments

Edit: Looks like im a moron

Deprived, how come BTC Balance (BTC-TC) went down to -(84+254) in just one day?

Yeah it's unfortunate short-term but great advertising for the site longer term.  There's no signs of foul play.  I watched it for a bit before doing our daily report.  Another whale had gone up a lot then lost it all back with interest (think he was up best part of 1k at one point before losing it all).  Then the 2nd one showed up and profit was up and down like mad.  I left J-D before making our report - and of course that's when he finally had a decent length winning streak and won his money.  It was just the standard thing of people believing that by varying bet sizes and looking for patterns in rolls they can beat a house edge.  And when someone does win - and it reinforces their belief - that's great for the house as they'll tell everyone else about it.

I view the losses today as pretty cheap advertising.

All I am concerned about is security as I do not understand technology that well so I cannot be sure all the bets are played with the intended rules. I understand EV and variance. If there are no signs of foul play, nothing could have been better for us - investors - than what just happened today. (less competition, more bets)

I can't be absolutely certain - but with the bets that were made today the resulting loss is an entirely reasonable outcome and there's no reason at all to suspect foul play.  The guy who one made claims about having found a loophole - but from his semi-explanation it's just him not understanding math properly, getting lucky and believing that confirms his theory.

That's why I'm still sending more of DMS' funds there - and also moving some of my own in  there.  With +EV things like being the house I'm NEVER that fussed about actual results - jus about the EV and the degree of variance expected.  The level of variance at JD is higher than would be ideal - but that's pretty inevitable when results will be determined by a handful of whales, with the steady profit from the smaller fish just background noise.

Deprived, are you sure the Just-Dice site is secure and the bets were just lucky? If you are, I will be putting all my available money in there as it really is starting to look interesting there... (what was 10% loss a day for me will be 3% gain a day in the long run if the bets continue)

Yeah our J-D balance is now slightly below what we originally invested - a whale got lucky and won best part of 3K BTC.  J-D is high theoretical return but high variance too - fine for 10% of our BR but it can't be increased too far or we'd risk losing funds that could be owed to MINING (if diffiuclty rises slow down then I'd have to consider reducing it further).

Have just done LTC-ATF.B1 dividends - after conversion back to BTC DMS got 0.75762183 BTC.  Also sold a few hundred more of them earlier - this time at 20% above face value.  Am regretting let DMS have my personal LTC-ATF.B1 at face value now

Am sending 60 more BTC to J-D (takes it to a bit over 8% of capital) and also buying another 100 BTC Coinlenders bond (takes it to about 18% of capital).  That's assuming I can figure out how to use the annoying inputs.io thing that we have to deposit via now (I never intentionally use any sort of online wallet that pays no interest - CP risk without benefit isn't my thing and saving 1 hour on transfers isn't enough to justify the risk to me).

...and now look at J-D balance again... 

Sold   6308
Swapped   0
Total   6308
Price    0.040366
Total   254.628728
Less Fee   254.1194705
Man Fee   7.623584116

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1411.442945
12380 LTC-ATF.B1    123.80000000
Coinlenders CD    201.88925251
Just-Dice Balance    107.63591754
TOTAL ASSETS    1,844.76811521
   
Outstanding MINING   47031
Outstanding SELLING   47031
Outstanding PURCHASE   854
Effective Units   47885
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,840.16585387
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03842886
Days Dividend Post Div   399.84
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,840.16585387
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03842886
PURCHASE selling price    0.04035030
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03766028

J-D balance is down a bit - in fact it's moving around a lot right now as there's been 2 gamblers making large bets : have seen it as low as 105 and as high as 110 in last few hours.  The high volume of PURCHASE sales more than made up for that - meaning most of today's MINING dividend was covered (days dividend only dropped to 399.84 rather than to 399_.  We also sold some more LTC-ATF.B1 off at ~15% markup to face.

Got to go out for a few hours shortly.  When I get back I'll look at increasing our J-D investment (keeping it below 10%) and a 2nd Coinlenders CD (keeping it below 20%).

The dividend paid instantly decreases the value of SELLING by exactly that much. So, if the price is .035 and a dividend of .01 is paid out, the new underlying value of SELLING is .025.

If the price drops more than the dividend amount then, yes, you are out some money. SELLING is a long-term bet that people are overpaying for MINING. Basically, you need to figure out what you think is a fair price for MINING and, once you subtract that price from the current DMS.PURCHASE price, you'll have an idea of what you think is a fair price for SELLING (which may be different for each investor).

The previous posts in this thread really shed a lot of light on how to value this security. It takes some time, but do read it all-