[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 75.

twentyseventy

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Quote from: alexius89 on July 09, 2013, 02:27:54 PM

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69% in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

This spreadsheet made by Lohoris may be of some assistance. I made a copy and can therefore adjust the numbers myself for difficulty, current assets, etc.

Quote from: Lohoris on June 26, 2013, 11:41:43 AM

You're welcome, I'm glad I could help someone, since it took a bit to figure it out myself Wink

Here's a spreadsheet version : )

Deprived

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Quote from: alexius89 on July 09, 2013, 02:27:54 PM

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69% in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

Sorry - I don't/can't give estimates until I know for sure what the difficulty will change to. If I get it wrong and people make decisions based on my estimate then I'd likely get complaints.

The size of the dividend depends a LOT on the new difficulty value (and the new dividend amount). A change of .0000001 in the new dividend would make a change of .00004 in the dividend paid - 400 times the amount.

Once the difficulty has actually changed then I'll give an estimate as soon as I'm around - as at that point it won't really change a lot. Until then you have to work it out yourself : ANYONE can work it out just as easily and accurately as me (other than any major gains from investment - which there haven't been since today's report).

alexius89

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Gridcoin Foundation

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69% in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

Deprived

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Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 09, 2013, 01:19:41 PM

Sorry I'm asking this question again but I am still confused on the timing for the selling dividend.

If the difficulty increase occurs in between tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, well selling receive the dividend on the day after tomorrow?

If the increase occurs before midnight (GMT) then you receive it the next day.
If it occurs on or after midnight (GMT) then you don't get it for another day.

In practice this time that means if it occurs at or before 23:59:59 GMT 10th July then the SELLING dividend would be on the 11th.
If it occurs after 23:59:59 GMT 10th July then the SELLING dividend would be on the 12th.

At present it's very hard to tell whether it will occur before or after that midnight - that depends mainly on netwrok luck between now and then (and whether new hashing power is added or existing power ceases to run).

FloatesMcgoates

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Sorry I'm asking this question again but I am still confused on the timing for the selling dividend.

If the difficulty increase occurs in between tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, well selling receive the dividend on the day after tomorrow?

Deprived

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Sold   308
Swapped   0
Total   308
Price   0.048997
Total   15.091076
Less Fee   15.06089385
Man Fee   0.451826815

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1263.773183
12600 LTC-ATF.B1    126.00000000
Coinlenders CD    201.37222714
Just-Dice Balance    107.94373293
TOTAL ASSETS    1,699.08914276

Outstanding MINING   35743
Outstanding SELLING   35743
Outstanding PURCHASE   639
Effective Units   36382

Block reward   25
Difficulty   21,335,329
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Daily Dividend    0.00011786
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00589288
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01178577
365 days (Buyback)    0.04301806
405 days (IPO)    0.04773236
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.04714308
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.04832165

NAV Post MINING Div    1,694.80124430
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04658351
Days Dividend Post Div   395.25
SELLING Dividend    -
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,694.80124430
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.04658351
PURCHASE selling price    0.04891269
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04565184

odolvlobo

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:58:41 PM

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 08, 2013, 06:54:28 PM

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

Wowzers, selling seems very conservatively priced currently...

Don't be fooled by the current dividend yield. SELLING value and dividends both will drop, eventually to 0. You must account for this fact before you decide if it is conservatively priced or not. The good news is that this thread contains enough information to make a good evaluation.

carnitastaco

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:58:41 PM

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 08, 2013, 06:54:28 PM

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

Wowzers, selling seems very conservatively priced currently...

since day 1.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:46:02 PM

Im just a bit puzzled why I often see an "if a selling div is paid" type comment when as far as I can work out there will be a div paid out on this for quite awhile?

SELLING gets a dividend only if the value the assets is more than 410 times the daily MINING dividend.

If a SELLING dividend was paid at the last difficulty change then a SELLING dividend is paid at the next change only if the difficulty goes up by about 6% or more, assuming no profit or loss from assets and 14 days between difficulty changes: 410/(400-14). After some clever math, assuming no profits or losses from assets, a SELLING dividend is paid if the time between difficulty changes is less than 13.2 days.

gski

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Fair enough if he/she is the security manager(Probably not the correct term). Thanks twentyseventy and FloatesMcgoates! Grin

twentyseventy

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:46:02 PM

Awesome thanks. So big jump in difficulty coupled with the just-dice and coin-lenders income running for a full dividend period should see a pretty high selling div right? I know the maths has been mentioned several time before so im not asking for anyone to go over it again. Im just a bit puzzled why I often see an "if a selling div is paid" type comment when as far as I can work out there will be a div paid out on this for quite awhile?

Deprived doesn't like to make comments of an absolute nature (which I agree with); be prepared for ifs, coulds, and probablys in this thread!

gski

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Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on July 08, 2013, 06:54:28 PM

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

Wowzers, selling seems very conservatively priced currently...

FloatesMcgoates

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:46:02 PM

Awesome thanks. So big jump in difficulty coupled with the just-dice and coin-lenders income running for a full dividend period should see a pretty high selling div right? I know the maths has been mentioned several time before so im not asking for anyone to go over it again. Im just a bit puzzled why I often see an "if a selling div is paid" type comment when as far as I can work out there will be a div paid out on this for quite awhile?

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

gski

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 0

Awesome thanks. So big jump in difficulty coupled with the just-dice and coin-lenders income running for a full dividend period should see a pretty high selling div right? I know the maths has been mentioned several time before so im not asking for anyone to go over it again. Im just a bit puzzled why I often see an "if a selling div is paid" type comment when as far as I can work out there will be a div paid out on this for quite awhile?

twentyseventy

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Quote from: gski on July 08, 2013, 06:19:47 PM

The predicted difficulty jumpy is looking pretty high for July 10th right? Quite a bit higher than the last jump or are my math/google skills total fail?

Last DI was between 7-9% if I remember correctly, this one looks like it will be closer to 20%. My estimate is 25,750,000; might be a bit on the high side.

gski

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The predicted difficulty jumpy is looking pretty high for July 10th right? Quite a bit higher than the last jump or are my math/google skills total fail?

Deprived

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Quote from: odolvlobo on July 08, 2013, 03:40:38 PM

Quote from: Deprived on July 08, 2013, 11:58:06 AM

Quote from: eltopo on July 08, 2013, 11:39:11 AM

Thats obvious. Question is, if we made a profit at just-dice, should we pay it out to ourselfes at some specific point? (Not the whole investment, only the profit)

Won't the profit be included in the coming SELLING dividend?

Yes - all profits from investments are included in NAV and add to the next SELLING dividend. When we made 3 BTC on J-D yesterday that added 3 BTC to the total amount of dividend SELLING will receive in a few days (it looks safe to assume SELLING will get a dividend).

...

I don't disagree with what you wrote, but I think it was a little confusing. I would have preceded your answer with "No" instead of "Yes". It seems like he was asking if asset profits are added to SELLING dividends.

Profits from investments don't go directly to SELLING dividends. Instead, they just increase the the NAV, and SELLING dividends are computed normally.

The difference is that SELLING dividends are still not paid if the 410 number is not exceeded, even if assets show profits. And SELLING dividends are still the amount exceeding the 400 number, regardless of the amount of the profits from assets.

That is how I understand it.

The yes was to the second point - that it would be included in the coming dividend. Once it's certain a dividend will be paid even without any profits then the profits DO effectively go into the dividend (i.e. the dividend is larger by the amount of profits than it would have been had there been no profit).

But in principle you're certainly correct - if difficulty hasn't risen by enough to generate a dividend even with profits added then profits WON'T be dividended out to SELLING (and could end up going to MINING if difficulty continued not to rise by much).

And yes - when calculating the dividend no distinction is made between pre-existing capital and that generated from investments/markup on PURCHASE. It's all part and parcel of NAV - with whether SELLING dividends are paid (and the size of them if so) determined purely on how NAV compares to the daily dividend for MINING.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: Deprived on July 08, 2013, 11:58:06 AM

Quote from: eltopo on July 08, 2013, 11:39:11 AM

Thats obvious. Question is, if we made a profit at just-dice, should we pay it out to ourselfes at some specific point? (Not the whole investment, only the profit)

Won't the profit be included in the coming SELLING dividend?

Yes - all profits from investments are included in NAV and add to the next SELLING dividend. When we made 3 BTC on J-D yesterday that added 3 BTC to the total amount of dividend SELLING will receive in a few days (it looks safe to assume SELLING will get a dividend).

...

I don't disagree with what you wrote, but I think it was a little confusing. I would have preceded your answer with "No" instead of "Yes". It seems like he was asking if asset profits are separately added to SELLING dividends.

Profits from investments don't go directly to SELLING dividends. Instead, they just increase the the NAV, and SELLING dividends are computed normally.

The difference is that SELLING dividends are still not paid if the 410 number is not exceeded, even if assets show profits. And SELLING dividends are still the amount exceeding the 400 number, regardless of the amount of the profits from assets.

That is how I understand it.

Deprived

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Quote from: ThickAsThieves on July 08, 2013, 03:18:01 PM

Any other rationale is hot air. He's only okay with comparing to TAT.VM because it has a little MORE volatility due to speculators and due to the lack of an instrument to bet against it (ignoring that *I* still can bet against it by issuing new shares).

Interestingly (to me at least) by the most normal definition DMS.Mining actually looks LESS volatile than real PMBs (or TAT.VM) - the price tends to be more stable and have a tighter spread. Initially there was some volatility - from where i'm sat it looked like someone was trying to do a King Canute and pump the price but lacked the funds to do so when opposed by everyone else thinking it was too high. They then had to sell off at a loss - which is what SHOULD happen to people who try to pump something above its value.

The betting against point is the other interesting one. Attempting to criticise DMS.Mining because people can bet against it totally misses the point. In any other PMB (where the hardware is already paid for) the issuer is betting against it - they believe they're better off selling the shares than not selling them. DMS.Mining just removes the monopoly (and thus artificial price constraint) on betting against - it doesn't introduce some new factor that would otherwise not exist.

ThickAsThieves

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It's simple really. Furuknap won't compare DMS.MINING because it would show his asset is overpriced in comparison.

Any other rationale is hot air. He's only okay with comparing to TAT.VM because it has a little MORE volatility due to speculators and due to the lack of an instrument to bet against it (ignoring that *I* still can bet against it by issuing new shares).

All of Furuknap's arguments are bull. Any time the conversation goes in a direction he doesn't like, he says he he's not willing to make assumptions. However, any time it goes in a direction that paints his asset in a good light, or merely obfuscates its being overpriced, he has no problem making convenient assumptions.

Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 75. (Read 198958 times)