Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 87. (Read 198958 times)
I'm loving the analysis here, thanks guys. I did my own calculations (less complex, albeit) and came to an expected return of about .0011 for each 5 MH/s PMB equivalent, glad to see that that wasn't too far off. I'm thinking about 15% diff increase, average.
Using infinite series calculations supposing difficulty readjusts every 12 days (CurrentDividend * 12 /(1-DifficultyIncrease)),
Small correction: it is more accurate to assume that difficulty adjusts every 14 / (1 + DifficultyIncrease) days (target time is 14 days, the new difficulty is based on the average hashrate of the previous period). If you multiply this value with the sum of the infinite series you actually get a very elegant result:
14 * CurrentDividend / DifficultyIncrease
(for full derivation see this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2493461)
So with a 10% increase per readjustment, you can expect 140 times the current daily dividend from DMS.MINING.
The target time is readjusted for difficulty increases that have occured in the past, so if difficulty increases by some amount after the readjustment, that 14 day number should be multiplied by somewhere over (1-%DiffIncrease) to get the approximate date before the next readjustment, this is why the last few adjustments have been at 12 days.
I guess it would be more accurate to say 14 days for a 5% increase, to 12 days for a 20% increase, and then waffle and say 13 days for numbers in between. If this were to be calculated, then DMS.MINING will pay out a lifetime of
0.0364 for 5% Difficulty increase
0.02253 for 7.5% increase
0.169 for a 10% increase
and the 20% number would be the same as the previous post
Using infinite series calculations supposing difficulty readjusts every 12 days (CurrentDividend * 12 /(1-DifficultyIncrease)),
Small correction: it is more accurate to assume that difficulty adjusts every 14 / (1 + DifficultyIncrease) days (target time is 14 days, the new difficulty is based on the average hashrate of the previous period). If you multiply this value with the sum of the infinite series you actually get a very elegant result:
14 * CurrentDividend / DifficultyIncrease
(for full derivation see this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2493461)
So with a 10% increase per readjustment, you can expect 140 times the current daily dividend from DMS.MINING.
.0312 if difficulty increases 5% each time
.0208 if difficulty increases 7.5% each time
.0156 if difficulty increases 10% each time
.0078 if difficulty increases 20% each time
based on that the difficulty in 1 year (june 2014) will be around.0208 if difficulty increases 7.5% each time
.0156 if difficulty increases 10% each time
.0078 if difficulty increases 20% each time
83 million (5%)
169 million (7.5%)
336 million (10%)
4581 million (20%)
I'm surprised people are still so bullish on SELLING when difficulty is currently scheduled for a measly 0.6% increase, which is far below the threshold required for selling to receive a dividend.
Most difficulty predictions are based on the average hashrate for the period since the last adjustment. For most of that timeperiod, ASICMiner has been running with significantly less hashing power and they've only recently recovered. Consequently, the average hashrate since the last adjustment is relatively low and will rise if there are no other hashrate-drops.
Alright that's a pretty good point so I redid some calculations:
After ASICMiner recovered, total network power is at 146.13 TH/s
At last difficulty readjustment, total network power was at 138.43 TH/s
If we ignore the period over the last day and a half where total network power was hovering between 120-130 TH/s and just suppose it was at 146.13 the entire time, then we come up with a difficulty increase of 5.7%, which would receive a dividend of .0029 BTC/Share or so.
(Using numbers from the previous day:
TotalAssets/(EffectiveUnits*(Dividend*.943)) = 423.7108705177327560934408247899 (Days of dividends remaining)
(DaysRemaining-400) *(EffectiveUnits*(Dividend*.943)) = 23.7108705177327 * 2.55136776774 = 60.495150784 (BTC to be paid out in dividends to SELLING)
60.495150784/EffectiveUnits = 60.495150784/20809 = 0.00290716 BTC/share of DMS.SELLING paid out in dividends
Using infinite series calculations supposing difficulty readjusts every 12 days (CurrentDividend * 12 /(1-DifficultyIncrease)), DMS.MINING will pay out a total of
.0312 if difficulty increases 5% each time
.0208 if difficulty increases 7.5% each time
.0156 if difficulty increases 10% each time
.0078 if difficulty increases 20% each time
I'm surprised people are still so bullish on SELLING when difficulty is currently scheduled for a measly 0.6% increase, which is far below the threshold required for selling to receive a dividend.
At .018 BTC/Share, DMS.MINING has the equivalent of .0036 BTC per Megahash/Second, which is 55% Cheaper than what you would get with TAT.VIRTUALMINE.
At .018 BTC/Share, DMS.MINING has the equivalent of .0036 BTC per Megahash/Second, which is 55% Cheaper than what you would get with TAT.VIRTUALMINE.
I was long on selling until AM started decreasing its hash rate. I'm long on it long-term, but short term it doesn't seem like a great choice.
TAT.VM is extremely overvalued in my opinion, however, as most PMBs are. I'd think .002 per MH/s would be the most I would pay.
I'm surprised people are still so bullish on SELLING when difficulty is currently scheduled for a measly 0.6% increase, which is far below the threshold required for selling to receive a dividend.
Most difficulty predictions are based on the average hashrate for the period since the last adjustment. For most of that timeperiod, ASICMiner has been running with significantly less hashing power and they've only recently recovered. Consequently, the average hashrate since the last adjustment is relatively low and will rise if there are no other hashrate-drops.
I'm surprised people are still so bullish on SELLING when difficulty is currently scheduled for a measly 0.6% increase, which is far below the threshold required for selling to receive a dividend.
At .018 BTC/Share, DMS.MINING has the equivalent of .0036 BTC per Megahash/Second, which is 55% Cheaper than what you would get with TAT.VIRTUALMINE.
At .018 BTC/Share, DMS.MINING has the equivalent of .0036 BTC per Megahash/Second, which is 55% Cheaper than what you would get with TAT.VIRTUALMINE.
Yap, difficulty is rising again, if this will continue to rise with 20% increase, it can double your bitcoin in DMS.SELLER in just 2 months.
That's not true.
SELLING costs a lot more than MINING. At most it can gain the value of MINING as profit (and MINING isn't going to get 0 - whatever happens). So there's just no way it can ever make 100% profit.
At current prices you have to pay .036 for selling and can only possibly win the .019 from MINING. So absolute maximum profit (if MINING never got a single dividend more) is ~50%. A little bit can be added to that for gain from new sales and investment - but no way that will take it anywhere near doubling your money.
Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.
pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop
Exactly, and now it is going back up to higher levels than it was before. Difficulty is going to skyrocket once again!
Yap, Difficulty is rising again, if this will continue to rise with 20% increase, it can double your bitcoin in DMS.SELLER in just 2 months.
Sold 1148
Swapped 0
Total 1148
Price 0.054589
Total 62.668172
Less Fee 62.54283566
Man Fee 1.87628507
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 956.04225788
12500 LTC-ATF.B1 125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS 1,081.04225788
Outstanding MINING 20480
Outstanding SELLING 20480
Outstanding PURCHASE 329
Effective Units 20809
Block reward 25
Difficulty 19,339,258
Hashes per MINING 5000000
Daily Dividend 0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close) 0.01300222
365 days (Buyback) 0.04745810
405 days (IPO) 0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.05330910
NAV Post MINING Div 1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.05182068
Days Dividend Post Div 398.55
SELLING Dividend -
NAV Post SELLING Div 1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.05182068
PURCHASE selling price 0.05441172
PURCHASE buy-back price 0.05078427
Swapped 0
Total 1148
Price 0.054589
Total 62.668172
Less Fee 62.54283566
Man Fee 1.87628507
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 956.04225788
12500 LTC-ATF.B1 125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS 1,081.04225788
Outstanding MINING 20480
Outstanding SELLING 20480
Outstanding PURCHASE 329
Effective Units 20809
Block reward 25
Difficulty 19,339,258
Hashes per MINING 5000000
Daily Dividend 0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close) 0.01300222
365 days (Buyback) 0.04745810
405 days (IPO) 0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.05330910
NAV Post MINING Div 1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.05182068
Days Dividend Post Div 398.55
SELLING Dividend -
NAV Post SELLING Div 1,078.33662623
NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.05182068
PURCHASE selling price 0.05441172
PURCHASE buy-back price 0.05078427
Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.
pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop
Exactly, and now it is going back up to higher levels than it was before. Difficulty is going to skyrocket once again!
How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?
NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.
It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).
Under what circumstances NAV/U can change and is SELLING dividend depends only and only upon diff change?
Thanks!
NAV/U is the total amount of assets we hold divided by the effective number of outstanding units of PURCHASE.
Any time a dividend is paid it drops by the amount of the dividend.
If new PURCHASE are sold it rises slightly - as there's a small markup in their price.
In we make profit from investment then NAV/U rises.
If an investment were to default then NAV/U would fall (we won't invest in anything which can make a loss without defaulting)
SELLING only gets a dividend if the days of dividend post mining div is over 410.
If difficulty falls or stays the same or only rises slightly then SELLING won't get a dividend.
If difficulty rises a lot then SELLING can get a big dividend (as happened last change) - but NOT if difficulty had previously stayed the same/fallen for a while (as capital reserves would have to be refilled before there was any extra left that could safely be given to SELLING).
So yes - the MAIN factor (by a mile) deciding whether (and how large) SELLING gets a dividend IS the rate at which difficulty changes.
How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?
NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.
It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).
Under what circumstances NAV/U can change and is SELLING dividend depends only and only upon diff change?
Thanks!
How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?
NAV/U post dividend divided by the current MINING dividend.
It's the number of days the capital could continue to pay out the current MINING dividend assuming no change in NAV/U (other than the actual payment of the dividend itself).
How is "Days Dividend Post Div" derived?
Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.
pretty much entirely related to the asicminer hashing drop
Sold 1011
Swapped 0
Total 1011
Price 0.054589
Total 55.189479
Less Fee 55.07910004
Man Fee 1.652373001
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 898.03505875
12500 LTC-ATF.B1 125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS 1,023.03505875
Outstanding MINING 19450
Outstanding SELLING 19450
Outstanding PURCHASE 211
Effective Units 19661
Block reward 25
Difficulty 19,339,258
Hashes per MINING 5000000
Daily Dividend 0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close) 0.01300222
365 days (Buyback) 0.04745810
405 days (IPO) 0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.05330910
NAV Post MINING Div 1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.05190370
Days Dividend Post Div 399.19
SELLING Dividend -
NAV Post SELLING Div 1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.05190370
PURCHASE selling price 0.05449889
PURCHASE buy-back price 0.05086563
Swapped 0
Total 1011
Price 0.054589
Total 55.189479
Less Fee 55.07910004
Man Fee 1.652373001
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 898.03505875
12500 LTC-ATF.B1 125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS 1,023.03505875
Outstanding MINING 19450
Outstanding SELLING 19450
Outstanding PURCHASE 211
Effective Units 19661
Block reward 25
Difficulty 19,339,258
Hashes per MINING 5000000
Daily Dividend 0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close) 0.01300222
365 days (Buyback) 0.04745810
405 days (IPO) 0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.05330910
NAV Post MINING Div 1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.05190370
Days Dividend Post Div 399.19
SELLING Dividend -
NAV Post SELLING Div 1,020.47869257
NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.05190370
PURCHASE selling price 0.05449889
PURCHASE buy-back price 0.05086563
Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.
It's a bit early, I'd wait until saturday to read any meaningful estimate...
Difficulty is not rising much, if this will continue SELLER might not get any dividend in next adjustment.
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