Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 88. (Read 198958 times)

I use 2FA also thanks for the div brother you are doing an excellent job  

There have been a couple of compromised accounts on BTC-TC lately - ones without 2FA of course.

I haven't stated it here (I have in other threads) but ALL accounts of mine which have 2FA available have 2FA enabled.

Where possible I use yubikey - where that isn't possible I use Google Authenticator.  My Google one-time passes are generated on a smart-phone NOT on any computer I use.

My yukikey is attached to the key-ring with my front-door key on and I carry my smartphone with me.  So even knowledge of my passwords AND physical access to the computers I use (none of which are public ones) would NOT allow access to my accounts.  Gaining access to an email account COULD allow changing/recovering a password but that would be useless without 2FA - which, of course, is why 2FA is absolutely essential.

Just clearing that up in case anyone was concerned.

EDIT: And I'm off to bed now - so any more transfers in won't get handled until an hour or so before today's dividend.

Sold   2415
Swapped   0
Total   2415
Price   0.054609
Total   131.880735
Less Fee   131.6169735
Man Fee   3.948509206

Management fee of 3.948 transferred

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    847.03313166
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    972.03313166
   
Outstanding MINING   18423
Outstanding SELLING   18423
Outstanding PURCHASE   227
Effective Units   18650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    969.60821791
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05198972
Days Dividend Post Div   399.85
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    969.60821791
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05198972
PURCHASE selling price    0.05458920
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05094992

DMS.MINING price is the lowest PMB compare to other mining offers.
0.0195 = 5MH/s or 0.0039 = 1MH/s

My guess: because difficulty is going up exponentially so mining profitability is going down exponentially (especially for a PMB with fixed hashrate!), thus a shitty long-term investment. I personally am glad to finally have an opportunity to short Bitcoin mining bonds, because there's 3 sure things in this world: death, taxes and mining profitability going down.

If the market pricing was correct then ALL of the dividend would have gone off the SELLING price afterwards.

I'm not seeing that MINING+SELLING is cheaper than PURCHASE.  Yeah - the Bids are, but the Asks aren't - you can't buy a MINING+SELLING for less than a PURCHASE.  You need to compare bids to bids and asks to asks.

The big drop in MINING isn't at all unexpected - I'd actually expected it to drop lower before recovering.  The prices of these are going to swing around a LOT more than for PMBs - as people can sell MINING or SELLING without having ever bought one : and the potential for panic selling is far higher.

With a normal PMB, if someone thinks its losing value or they paid too much they can just try to sell slightly below the Issuer's price.  You can see that happening on TAT.VM - where people are trying to sell just under his own .007 Ask (and pray he doesn't decide to sell cheaper himself of course).  They can't afford to wait and try to do that on MINING if they decide they paid too much as :

1.  There's no issuer's Ask wall to put Asks below.  I only sell PURCHASE - I've never sold MINING or SELLING and there's never been an official price for them.
2.  Anyone who thinks MINING is overpriced can just buy PURCHASE, split it and sell MINING - there's no restriction on who can undercut you so far more chance of it happening.  
3.  With TAT.VM (And all PMBs) all shares were bought at the initial price - so if they're sold below it then someone has made a loss on it.  With MINING that isn't the case - it could be a share straight from a split where the seller believes they're making (or locking in) a profit on the sale.

In short - the market will move to a new range much more quickly and stay there all the time that's where the general belief is that it belongs.  That makes it potentially far more profitable if you get it right - but also far more brutal when you get it wrong.

The price also can't be fixed in the same way it can on some PMBs.  Having a small number of shares issued allows someone with a good chunk of them to move the range to where they want.  That just can't be done on MINING and SELLING - as if you move the price to a wrong range then anyone who wants can just buy in and clear out your walls that were artifically propping the price up.  Usually such fixes are to raise the price after accumulating a lot - where noone else can break down your bid walls as there aren't enough shares.  That forces trading to be above the walls - making it look like it's the real range and fooling those not paying attention into believing the market set the price.

The only way that could be done here is if I was in on it - and I think if I refused to sell more PURCHASE or to split them there'd soon be threads pointing out that I was fixing the market by limiting supply.

Wow people are sure dumping mining, even more than I expected. It is interesting that MINING+SELLING is cheaper than buying PURCHASE right now -- I think maybe SELLING is undervalued? It seems the price dropped by the full amount of the dividend, but the MINING side should be bearing some of that decline.

Didn't miss it - was doing something else for half an hour.  Am up to date on transfer again now (unless any occurred in last few minutes).

The reason for ANY change in the price of MINING/SELLING (other than a reduction because of a dividend being paid) is that the market (i.e. everyone investing collectively) has decided that the previous price was wrong.

In this particular case the change is almost certainly caused by one particular group - those who held SELLING.  SELLING got a big dividend today.  Pretty much by definition those holding SELLING are the people who believe it's better value than MINING - i.e. they believe (or believed) MINING was over-priced.  It's fairly safe to assume some of those used their dividends to buy more PURCHASE, split it then sold the MINING.  Once their MNING have gone we'll find out whether the rest of the market agrees with their new valuation.

I'm guessing people are bullish on SELLING, so they bought PURCHASE and sold MINING down-

Deprived, missing my new 100 PURCHASE transfer

2013-06-18 02:13:51   DMS.PURCHASE   transfer-out (DeprivedMining)   100

Can someone elaborate why MINING lost 35% of it's value today?

There has been at least some buyers in the last 2 hours, but it's not looking good.

Will do it now - missed that one as it appeared in my transaction list in between my transfers out to you :

2013-06-17 17:34:42    DMS.SELLING    transfer-out (eltopo)    160    0.0395    0    6.32
2013-06-17 17:34:24    DMS.PURCHASE    transfer-in (eltopo)    54    0.06574    0    3.54996
2013-06-17 17:34:19    DMS.MINING    transfer-out (eltopo)    160    0.02929    0    4.6864

I'll send yours then have a careful check - usually there's not many transfers at a time, but after the dividend there were quite a load.  I'd spot it before next dividend - when I check that the numbers match (i.e. make sure that number outstanding has increased by same amount as there were salesm which would make any missed transfer obvious),

Same for me, missing transfer back from this one:

2013-06-17 18:34:24   DMS.PURCHASE   transfer-out (DeprivedMining)    54

Some minutes before there were another transfer with 160 units which got through.

Sorry about that - there were a bunch of transfers in and your second transfer of 11 came whilst I was still processing ones that had previously arrived.  I managed to miss noticing that you'd done a second one for the same amount.

They're sent now - oversights like that are always easily fixed.

Deprived, are you still online doing the PURCHASE->SELLING/MINING swaps or have you logged off? Sent you 11 PURCHASE (for a 2nd time) ~1 hr ago that is awaiting a swap.

edit: Just got the notification of the transfer of SELLING&MINING. Cheers!

First I wanted to try that, too.
But then I've settled with selling my DMS.Sellings before the dividends.
5.4 Btc investment -> 6.7 Btc return, that was my best investment so far.

(Sorry for those who made a loss, I hope they still gained some valuable information about PMBs from this)

Sold some SELLING for > 0.04 after receiving the dividend... so lets get SELLING back to 0.45 now 

Yeah - you were one of the first ones to send after dividends were paid.

Been too busy doing transfers to do any trading myself - so missed out on the arb opportunities there were for those who were quick.

Thanks Deprived for immediate transfer, earned a bit there.