Topic: btt - page 88. (Read 407332 times)

Hi jmutch, I've considered this previously, even before multiple shareholders PM'd me urging as much. My principle concern stems from months of research in the securities section of this very forum. There you'll find multiple mining companies that have been crippled or destroyed by treating on hand cash as investment funds or outsourcing hash rate. I'm a fairly conservative fella by nature...though I doubt you guys even noticed. GLBSE's collapse and numerous other betrayals prompted me to set up this company in such a way that we didn't extend trust to anyone we didn't have to.

Over time I've come to trust btct.co and more specifically burnside. Conveniently he's also the operator of the ASICMiner-PT on that exchange, and as a result I wouldn't be opposed to bASIC-MINING parking a sizable portion of our assets in shares there. There's clearly enough liquidity on the exchange now that we can get our funds out relatively quickly if necessary.

Do any shareholders object to bASIC-MINING purchasing 200 shares of ASICMiner-PT on btct.co and distributing 100% of the dividends to shareholders? If so what are your concerns?

Cheers.  

Hi solstoce, nothing yet, but I'll keep an ear to the ground. I saw that...very encouraging.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2295271
 

So word on the street is some guys that ordered there batch 2 on the same day as us got a tracking number today any word on ours?

Hi malona82,

We're not talking about new tech anymore and I'd hardly call multiple Avalon pre-orders a "hope and prayer". They've delivered and I think the chances that they won't continue to deliver are next to zero. They're overdue, and their CS leaves a whole bunch to be desired, but they're plainly not BFL(which we fortunately haven't a single bitcent tied up in).

No I've not noticed the estimates down to +11%, allchains currently indicates +13%, but again the estimates are not historically reliable 9+ days out. I disagree with your assessment that the network is stalling as I see no evidence to support such a conclusion. Your own prior estimate called for an average increase of 8%, so I fail to see how a fuzzy estimated increase of +11 to +13% can be described as stalling.

Cheers. 

Again, there is the hope and prayer on "new tech" there are 2 products ordered.  3 batches of avalons, 2000 total units and they have only delivered 700 of them in the past 6 months.  Not to mention the thousands of BFL that haven't shipped.  Not sure if you haven't noticed but the estimates are already down to 11%.  The network had a few quick blocks early which made it look as if the retarget was going to be much higher, but hashrate isn't actually higher it's flat.  Like i said before, the network follows price as it's main indicator and price hasn't moved in some time and the network is stalling.  I think this company is missing a great opportunity right now. 

why don't you at least put the funds into ASICMINER PT shares until something worthwhile comes along.

reality check: Noone's going to sell any "in hand hardware" to anyone for less than the equivalent cost of blades. not for a little while anyway.

The current tech is perfectly acceptable, that's why we have some on pre-order, but that doesn't mean that any price is a good price. AM blades seem terrific, they're just very high priced. This situation, like the one you described with many incorrect predictions of soaring hash rates in 2012 was created by hardware vendors that exaggerated their delivery schedules. If BFL and BTCFPGA had been able to ship ASIC products in the numbers they claimed in Q4 of 2012 then ASICMiner blades surely would not command the huge premiums they do at this time, though it seems likely difficulty would be far higher than it is right now anyway.

We have hardware capable of 155ish Gh/s paid for that's already overdue AND we have a sizable cash position to expand our hash rate significantly going forward. Despite the frustrating delays, I feel we're well positioned. 

The last estimate I saw was for an increase of nearly 14% for the next BTC re-target, though admittedly the estimates don't tend to be all that accurate till a few days before a re-target.

Cheers.

I know i'll never win this battle and that's fine.  it's what makes a democracy and i might not be right in my thoughts.  I just feel like the direction at this point is that we'll wait for a great opportunity arrive and like you said better tech will come, but i feel like when that happens it will be a replay of these asics all over again.  And i'd just like to say this.  when GPU's took over people may of thought it wasn't a profitable means at the same point in the process and that was the wrong opinion.  We may be in the early stages of a boom, but we have time to get some profit and hash power before it gets out of hand.  It's obvious that everyone's predictions of hash power dating back to 2012 have not come true in the least.  And the way the network is looking now we may see a retarget below the 8% I gave in my prediction this retarget.  This will be the last post on the issue as it's obviously not anything anyone is considering or even has any desire for.  So i'll just sit back and see where this heads.  But I really don't think hording 1k BTC is a great strategy.

While the increase in the exchange rate has enabled many that would otherwise have shut down to keep mining with GPUs, it seems likely that Avalon batch 1 shipping(20Th) as well as ASICMiner bringing 3Th online in February had more than a little to do with the rapid rise in network hash rate and therefore difficulty. While ASIC deployment has been slower than expected due to slipping delivery dates by some, ASICMiner's hash rate has gone from 0 to over 20Th since February plus they've sold 60 blades at auction and more directly.

This kind of huge increase in hash rate is typical when newer more efficient technology takes over. A similar period of increased network growth occurred when GPUs took over from CPUs. This period of increased network growth will not stop until mining is again marginally profitable. The cost to produce ASIC mining chips is heavily front end loaded so why would ASICMiner and Avalon, who have proven they can produce large numbers of working chips, stop producing inexpensive chips until something more efficient supplants them?

Cheers.

The chart you show is 100% correlated to the price of BTC, and that's something we really can't speculate on.  In the preceding few months before the price of btc went from 11 150 the difficulty was roughly unchanged.  there were some ups and downs but generally flat.  So every time through BTC history the price goes flat and so does hashrate.  I really can't speculate if BTC is at 50 in 6 months or 300.  But that's has to be taken into consideration.  Just look at the hashrate over the past few retargets.  Slowly dropping just like every other time there was a spike in price.  so the past few have been about 10% increases in difficulty and who know, maybe the price stays flat or goes down and we end up with a steal of a deal.  But we all keep sitting here saying well difficulty has to skyrocket because there are so many companies out there that are going to 10x the difficulty in the next 3 months.  For all we know public opinion on the amount of hash power that is expected to hit the market in the future could be significantly less then expected.  If there was the ability to increase hash power exponentially it would of already happened.  And the big rise came a few months back and ever since we are seeing slower growth.  And if BTC stays at 130 for the next 3 months there is no reason to think that growth won't have stopped.   

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

here is a spreadsheet that shows the price and difficulty and you will always see the same result.  Price moves followed by a rise and then after price halts the difficulty does too.  So showing that chart you did without expressing that there is a correlation with price is misleading.  As an investor I bought into BASIC for hash power.  I can store the BTC i invested in BASIC in my own wallet if i wanted to speculate on price.  But that's not the case, but that's pretty much what we are doing here at this point.  

I'm not being hostile at all, I just think the rational of why we wouldn't invest more in hash power now is misguided in my opinion.  If we can get the avalons in secondary market that's the best case, but at this point there isn't that many options so we'll be waiting months before we invest our 1k btc horde.  And personally I wouldn't think investing all 1k but a few hundred to increase some divis and get some payback would be wonderful.  

According to 50BTC's difficulty history tab:

Since February 5th, the average has been +15.5% per adjustment over the last 10 difficulty adjustments.  

I'm not following your 8% difficulty increase per adjustment and I don't understand why you think it will trail off when BFL hasn't shipped much of anything...yet, Avalon b2 & b3 are late, and both ASICMiner and Avalon have hundreds of Th of chips on order now. Again, forgive me as I have very little time today, but I didn't want you to think I'm disinterested in your numbers or the conclusions you've reached based on them.



I'm certainly no mathematician, but that looks like a bit more than 8% increase every three weeks...more like 300% just since February. What am I missing?

Cheers.

Edit: Operating costs are paid for from my own stake.

Where I arrive at about 6 moths is the stead streat of 8% difficulty increases.  So every 3 weeks we get 8% roughly, which should tail off if BTC keeps around the 130 level as interest will keep waining.  But anyway.  Lets look at it like this.  And i'll use 1 blade and we can go on from there.  I'm using a 8% per retarged and 14 days as the retarget cycle. which is probably a little light on the cycle. but whatever.  i'm here to see if we can get to breakeven after 6 months

Diff 131   .4/d x 14 = 5.6
diff 141   .36  x 14 = 5.1
diff 152   .33 x 14  = 4.6
diff 165   .30 x 14 = 4.2
diff 178   .28 x 14 = 3.9
diff 192   .26 x 14 = 3.65
diff 207   .24 x 14 = 3.36
diff 224  .225 x 14 = 3.15
diff 242   .21 x 14 =  2.94
diff 261  .192 x 14 = 2.69
diff 282  .18 x 14  = 2.52
diff 304  .165 x 14 = 2.31

total of 44 BTC over 168 days which is 5.5 months.  and that's no counting any nmc that we sell so over the 6 months we should be very close to or over break even selling nmc.  there could be some big retargets that would push out break even but there also could be difficulties that are less then 8% too.  GPU's will be pushing off the network as difficulty rises which will help the network absorb asics.  Either way, I agree avalons would be the better choice.  But given the time frame if there is no Asics out there to be bought in a timely manner then we will lose the benefit of the next month or 2 where we can really profit while the difficulties are low LOL.  And if we buy now and difficulties don't rise like I projected then we benefit even more. 

This is why I think we should buy the blades.  Everything after the 6 months is all profit.  Sure there are costs associated with it.  but they don't compare with the profits potential of the blades. Even if you knock 10% of the revenue off for costs of electricty and stuff you still end up making money around or just after the 6 month mark.  That's alot better then paying 1/2 the price for asics in 6 months for 1/2 the revenue which is what will happen.  Cuz we'll be able to do that too.

Thanks for posting malona82. bASIC-MINING has deployed nearly 200BTC to purchase mining gear, and this does not include the original BTCFPGA order on which the company was founded. I share your enthusiasm and I too am tired of waiting. We have motions up for voting to reach a consensus on which path to follow at this time.

Since you mentioned specific time frames in your post, may I ask why you chose 6 months as a break even date for an ASICMiner blade purchase? There are so many variables that go into such an estimate, I'm curious how you arrived at this number.

500BTC spent on blades would realistically yield us 110-120Gh/s or 28-31Mh/s/share while the Avalons purchased for 176.73BTC will yield us between 152-156Gh/s or 39-40Mh/s/share. Time will tell if the large premium being paid for ASICMiner blades over Avalon gear is worth it or not. Either way I will abide by whatever shareholders decide with these motions.

Cheers.  

I'll just do some quick numbers which I know all of you have done.  But when we are talking about a company here with this size of resources we should really be thinking about putting this to work.  anyway.  Lets say we AVG .225 which is 1/2 of what we would be getting today over the next year which should be looked at as pretty conservative because we know we would get much more then that over the next 2 or 3 months without any doubt.  but that would be .225x365 =82.5 per blade.  that's 50% profit in just 1 year.  and the great thing is, all the investors would be paid back and the company would be paid back 32 of the 50 it spend just in the first year.  now lets assume avg .1 btc a day in year 2.  that's another 36 btc.  and again we still have the mining capacity.  it's obviously going to drop as time goes on and there is some uncertainty.  but i'd rather us buy this now so we know we'll get a payback then wait a year and hope that some better opportunity arrives.

The fact is that there haven't been many opportunities out there that will give such good returns.  And surely if there is a company out there that can make better products they surely won't be selling them until it no longer benefits them to use the product themselves.  There is a reason ASICMINER is selling their equip and it's based on their own hash rate.  They need to increase the network hash to increase their own.  anyway.  Lets not overlook this as a real alternative to hope and prayer.  I see that there is already a strong bias against this but I advise strongly to rethink because there aren't that many opportunities out there and yet we all the the asic companies springing up but none deliver.  There is more risk in waiting on them then just do it now with what we have been presented to us now.  We can be a real powerhouse in the mining arena and at this point blades are our best bet.  As time goes on we will restock the coffers with profits from the blades and payback investors while we wait for these supposed great opportunities which we will be fighting every tom dick and harry for.  Lets do this now and get ahead of the game instead of being right along side the BFL folks.

Buying the blades is a great idea.  I don't understand the point of many of the people on here and their concerns with it.  There isn't any investment that will be out there that will benefit us like the blades will.  Do you all realize that the prices of asics will only come down as difficulty rises.  That's the supply demand side of this.  I would rather us spend 500 BTC on something that will return the 500 btc after lets say 6 months and then from there on we have mining capacity for life.  If you keep waiting we will never have any mining capacity other then the 2 avalons that will ship when?  There is zero reason for us not to buy the blades.  People keep looking at this as if we are getting some massive interest rate on the BTC in hand.  We don't.  Do every 3 weeks that we don't spend it means the difficulty rises and ROI shrinks.  You have to look at it in a better way which is we pay the going rate now which will be the same ROI as if we wait x days til a supposed better opportunity arrives.  In all honesty after 1 year of mining all investors will be paid back their initial investment as well as the company can reinstate the growth policy and it will be completely refilled.  I mean come on.  Why are people so gung ho about keeping 1k BTC in the coffers for some opportunity that has never arrived?  The blades are a great way to put the mining company mining.  I mean seriously, i've spent $3k USD on mining equipment and i'm mining 2x as much as BASIC is.  Time to put the money to work that investors have invested 200k on. 

I don't want to be rude, but you seem totally uninformed about AVALON ASICs and how many were shipped. If you actually bothered to take the time and read the threads that CreativeX has kindly referenced here, you would realize that there are already HUNDREDs of these machines hashing right now as you wrote. Not 4!

It looks like you are in pure denial here.

You mean because I posted four threads? No, actually there are multiple posts within those threads.

so there has been a total of 4 so far?  out of how many orders, hundreds?
Shipping only a few out only proves they are trying to appear legit.  I'll believe it when they actually ship on a regular basis.