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Topic: btt - page 92. (Read 407344 times)

member
Activity: 97
Merit: 10
May 23, 2013, 01:14:05 PM
Some nice volume and price increase here.  I hope it keeps up!

Here's a chart (warning, dev server in alpha):

http://coinflow.co/chart/BASIC-MINING

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 23, 2013, 11:53:09 AM
Thanks everyone for making bASIC-MINING a success, much appreciated. Smiley

Hi Kate. There are no guarantees of course, but I'd expect a far greater than 50% reduction in profits over a one year period. ASICMiner alone has mentioned 260Th+ of chips that they expect to take delivery of in the next quarter+ and we know these are already funded as they cut dividends to investors to fund them. ASICMiner's hashrate has grown by 200% over the past 30 days alone, so they're clearly able to make large gains and this doesn't include the hardware they've already sold and will sell in the near future.

Avalon has sold thousands of chips that will result in numerous custom solutions as well as the hashes added from batch 2 and batch 3. Then there are several other projects announced, some of which will likely result in actual products. In short, difficulty is up over 130% in the last 60 days and I think we're just seeing the tip of the ASIC iceberg.

That's a fair point, and having looked into the costs of Avalon chips and the costs to integrate them into a mining rig I'm coming around to the point of view that ASICminer's rigs are a bit pricey.

However, I am less certain that the ASIC iceberg will be too disastrous. Yes, it is an orders of magnitude development in the field, but I am confident that Moore's Law (in its broadest application to computing, storage etc - not just transistor density) will apply to a degree. Therefore I think there will be room for development post-ASIC too.

Of course there I have just argued against myself and am agreeing with you that the only way to fight ASICminer is for BASIC to build/integrate the rigs themselves. Wink

Kate.

To clarify, I don't see ASIC mining technology as disastrous at all(quite the opposite in fact), I merely meant that the bulk of this juggernaut remains below the surface at this time IMO. I believe there's a risk of overpaying for gear at this time when we know from history that the market will seek an equilibrium where mining is again marginally profitable. When this occurs those that overpaid or have above average running costs may or may not see a positive ROI, but the risks should not be underestimated.

As we move toward a time when ASIC mining hardware delivery times are significantly reduced to a more typical customer oriented business model I believe it becomes even more essential to deploy capital wisely. Ironically none have done more to hasten this move than friedcat and the excellent management team at ASICMiner.

Cheers.
full member
Activity: 153
Merit: 100
May 23, 2013, 11:19:48 AM
Hi Kate. There are no guarantees of course, but I'd expect a far greater than 50% reduction in profits over a one year period. ASICMiner alone has mentioned 260Th+ of chips that they expect to take delivery of in the next quarter+ and we know these are already funded as they cut dividends to investors to fund them. ASICMiner's hashrate has grown by 200% over the past 30 days alone, so they're clearly able to make large gains and this doesn't include the hardware they've already sold and will sell in the near future.

Avalon has sold thousands of chips that will result in numerous custom solutions as well as the hashes added from batch 2 and batch 3. Then there are several other projects announced, some of which will likely result in actual products. In short, difficulty is up over 130% in the last 60 days and I think we're just seeing the tip of the ASIC iceberg.

That's a fair point, and having looked into the costs of Avalon chips and the costs to integrate them into a mining rig I'm coming around to the point of view that ASICminer's rigs are a bit pricey.

However, I am less certain that the ASIC iceberg will be too disastrous. Yes, it is an orders of magnitude development in the field, but I am confident that Moore's Law (in its broadest application to computing, storage etc - not just transistor density) will apply to a degree. Therefore I think there will be room for development post-ASIC too.

Of course there I have just argued against myself and am agreeing with you that the only way to fight ASICminer is for BASIC to build/integrate the rigs themselves. Wink

Kate.
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
May 23, 2013, 10:46:03 AM
Yes, the stock price is still rising (like a chicken some would say). I did recommend BASIC-MINING to serveral of friends who want to invest in BTC, and I'm still filling the buy order, hoping to grab some cheap shares while I can.

AM is overvalued at the moment IMHO, it will probably be a good time to buy back when it will fall below 2 (this is pure speculation but I don't think it will stay above 2 forever).

On the other hand you have BASIC-MINING, with imminent delivery of >60 GH/s, and the same 2-3 months later, for a bit more than 3000 shareholders. And I'm pretty sure the price for each share can go well above 1.0 while I don't see AM much over 2.0 in the long run.

Time will tell :-)

i hope time will tell exactly what you wrote, because i sold my AM shares at 2,6  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
May 23, 2013, 10:32:32 AM
Yes, the stock price is still rising (like a chicken some would say). I did recommend BASIC-MINING to serveral of friends who want to invest in BTC, and I'm still filling the buy order, hoping to grab some cheap shares while I can.

AM is overvalued at the moment IMHO, it will probably be a good time to buy back when it will fall below 2 (this is pure speculation but I don't think it will stay above 2 forever).

On the other hand you have BASIC-MINING, with imminent delivery of >60 GH/s, and the same 2-3 months later, for a bit more than 3000 shareholders. And I'm pretty sure the price for each share can go well above 1.0 while I don't see AM much over 2.0 in the long run.

Time will tell :-)
sr. member
Activity: 316
Merit: 250
May 23, 2013, 10:23:04 AM
wow, shares selling like crazy  Shocked feels good to have bought at .33  Grin
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
May 22, 2013, 11:22:12 PM
hm I had shares in BASIC-MINING, past tense, but I didn't realize all this speculation in ASICMiner blades was going on over here, right next door.



I woke up one morning to find out I won an auction, everyone won. The clock was ticking on paying, I wired money to Mt Gox that day from America, 13 hours later it was in my Mt Gox account. I bought bitcoins and commingled them with some of my other holdings to send to John K's escrow.

Time after winning auction = 24 hours.
Tracking number was received before 36 hour mark.

after that, the blade shipped from Gangzhou region to New York City in 48 hours, I called DHL to let me pick it up that morning, it was going to be out for delivery, but they got it off the truck for me and I had my blade.

Out the box it is 13 GH/s on 1.20v. Friedcat is doing a lot of clever things with the way these blades are advertised and sold.

Literally all estimates I have seen regarding how much these blades will make have neglected the transaction fee earnings.

Yesterday my preferred pool found a block with 59 btc. More than double the block reward in transaction fees alone.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 22, 2013, 06:11:49 PM
Please can you share your reasoning on why ASICMiner blades will not be a positive ROI?

Hi Kate. There are no guarantees of course, but I'd expect a far greater than 50% reduction in profits over a one year period. ASICMiner alone has mentioned 260Th+ of chips that they expect to take delivery of in the next quarter+ and we know these are already funded as they cut dividends to investors to fund them. ASICMiner's hashrate has grown by 200% over the past 30 days alone, so they're clearly able to make large gains and this doesn't include the hardware they've already sold and will sell in the near future.

Avalon has sold thousands of chips that will result in numerous custom solutions as well as the hashes added from batch 2 and batch 3. Then there are several other projects announced, some of which will likely result in actual products. In short, difficulty is up over 130% in the last 60 days and I think we're just seeing the tip of the ASIC iceberg.

Cheers. 
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
May 22, 2013, 09:23:59 AM
Have they delivered? I'm curious to know what their turnaround / delivery time is like.

I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail. They must be very busy at the moment.
I will follow-up here too when I get it.
full member
Activity: 153
Merit: 100
May 22, 2013, 03:43:50 AM
I agree with Kate, that is why I ordered a Blade myself. I know that the hashate / invested BTC is much lower than Avalon batch 2 or 3 but I still think it is priced in a way that allows for a decent ROI.

Have they delivered? I'm curious to know what their turnaround / delivery time is like.

PS: BFL is not an option, of course ;-)

Hell no! :p

Kate.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
May 22, 2013, 02:47:31 AM
I agree with Kate, that is why I ordered a Blade myself. I know that the hashate / invested BTC is much lower than Avalon batch 2 or 3 but I still think it is priced in a way that allows for a decent ROI.

It is nice to see the stock price rising a bit, and I have good hope that it will trade above 1 BTC a share in a short time.

PS: BFL is not an option, of course ;-)
full member
Activity: 153
Merit: 100
May 22, 2013, 02:39:03 AM

Hi guys,

I'm very keen on this firm since it would be good to spread the risk and diversify away from just ASICminer. To that end I've bought a few hundred dollars worth of bASIC and am quite keen to go further, but I too share lunarboy's concerns (more below).

I'm looking into acquiring some shares here. I couldn't find anything with regards to your purchasing plan?

Do you have a timeline of intentions to expand?  Particularly your intentions to purchase more ASIC hardware from where and how much?

Welcome lunarboy. The original contract(OP) called for IPO funds to be applied to bulk ASIC purchases. I laid the groundwork for this with the now defunct BTCFPGA, but this was always conditional upon receipt of our first bASIC01 mining unit, which didn't happen. We've since had the same problem that every other ASIC mining company has faced in that we're unable to deploy funds for more hardware with a reasonable time to delivery.

The Avalon orders that the company now owns were intended to be stop gap measures to get us more efficient gear to add to our stable of GPUs while we wait for the ASIC hardware field to develop. Looking forward, ASICMiner + Avalon B2, B3, chip sales, & potentially B4 will raise difficulty significantly and as a result it's difficult to see ASICMiner blades offering a positive ROI with their current price. There are simply no other ASIC mining hardware options available at this time.

When there are options available that make sense whether custom built hardware based on Avalon chips with reasonable delivery times, ASICMiner blades at reasonable prices, or a new player in the field we'll have the opportunity and resources to significantly increase our hashing power.

Please can you share your reasoning on why ASICMiner blades will not be a positive ROI? I must tend to agree that there is a conflict of interest with them (running it themselves vs. selling the hardware) which is likely to put the price up, but here are my sums:

  • Price per blade: 50 BTC ~= $6,000.
  • Assuming 75 Watts and $0.15/kWh power ~= $0.27/day
  • According to this profit calculator at 10 GH/sec ~= 0.45 BTC/day.

Assuming a linear 50% reduction in yield over the first year (probably excessively aggressive) - ie. 0.45 BTC/day at the start of the year, 0.225 BTC/day at the end - we get:

 0.34 BTC/day x 365 days = 123.2 BTC ~= $14,750

That's an enormous yield in year one and swiftly pays for the entire capital outlay - seems like a good deal to me! Going forwards using the same 50% decline it would still be a massive pay-earning ratio (which is what markets care about).

Further, the longer you wait the less valuable the hashing power you can get will be - this is an arms race. I'd encourage you to buy ASICMiner's units if you can.

Kate.

Disclosure: Yes I have ASICminer shares too, but I genuinely believe in healthy competition and its merits for the market as a whole - plus I want to diversify.
sr. member
Activity: 560
Merit: 250
May 21, 2013, 12:51:58 PM
Bought some shares last night, and there's been about 100 shares bought since.  Just read through this thread, it's been a long wait getting here.  Hopefully the ASICs get in quickly!
hero member
Activity: 544
Merit: 500
May 21, 2013, 12:04:23 PM
Just dipped my toe in until something a little more concrete is on the horizon and to show support. Hopefully when ASIC start shipping or you get the OK on some Avalon chips and DIY , that will be my signal. In the mean time I'll wish you the best of luck.

All the best
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 21, 2013, 10:42:08 AM
I'm looking into acquiring some shares here. I couldn't find anything with regards to your purchasing plan?

Do you have a timeline of intentions to expand?  Particularly your intentions to purchase more ASIC hardware from where and how much?

Thanks for any help

Welcome lunarboy. The original contract(OP) called for IPO funds to be applied to bulk ASIC purchases. I laid the groundwork for this with the now defunct BTCFPGA, but this was always conditional upon receipt of our first bASIC01 mining unit, which didn't happen. We've since had the same problem that every other ASIC mining company has faced in that we're unable to deploy funds for more hardware with a reasonable time to delivery.

The Avalon orders that the company now owns were intended to be stop gap measures to get us more efficient gear to add to our stable of GPUs while we wait for the ASIC hardware field to develop. Looking forward, ASICMiner + Avalon B2, B3, chip sales, & potentially B4 will raise difficulty significantly and as a result it's difficult to see ASICMiner blades offering a positive ROI with their current price. There are simply no other ASIC mining hardware options available at this time.

When there are options available that make sense whether custom built hardware based on Avalon chips with reasonable delivery times, ASICMiner blades at reasonable prices, or a new player in the field we'll have the opportunity and resources to significantly increase our hashing power.

Cheers.
hero member
Activity: 544
Merit: 500
May 21, 2013, 10:09:29 AM
I'm looking into acquiring some shares here. I couldn't find anything with regards to your purchasing plan?

Do you have a timeline of intentions to expand?  Particularly your intentions to purchase more ASIC hardware from where and how much?

Are you intending to be strictly mining operations, or would a chip purchase something like this be on the cards.?

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/avalon-bitcoin-mining-asic-chips-to-rival-asicminer/

Thanks for any help

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 21, 2013, 02:47:18 AM
I did toss out a bid in their final auction 3@48?, but it took over 50BTC each to secure a blade.
They are now available for purchase for 49.99 each.  Expensive, but we would have it in about a week.

Not just expensive...at 5BTC/Gh they're nearly 4.5x as much as Avalon equipment and have similar efficiency. Buyers may never recover their investment.
newbie
Activity: 59
Merit: 0
May 21, 2013, 02:30:11 AM
I did toss out a bid in their final auction 3@48?, but it took over 50BTC each to secure a blade.
They are now available for purchase for 49.99 each.  Expensive, but we would have it in about a week.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
May 21, 2013, 12:44:18 AM
Any new thoughts on putting the btc reserves to work?

Nothing new. ASICMiner is the only immediately available product and the cost/Gh is too high. I did toss out a bid in their final auction 3@48?, but it took over 50BTC each to secure a blade. There just aren't a whole lot of options out there just now.

Thanks for the answer. I guess no ASIC product is available for immediate purchase.
If I were you, I would keep watching the hardware sales from ASICMINER, see if there is any opportunity to buy hash rate at a reasonable price, compared to AVALON for example.

Someone mentioned the AVALON chips but I think it's hard to find a good PCB design and handling the rest of the project to make custom ASICs with the chips.

Cheers,

Matt
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 21, 2013, 12:41:34 AM
Any new thoughts on putting the btc reserves to work?

Nothing new. ASICMiner is the only immediately available product and the cost/Gh is too high. I did toss out a bid in their final auction 3@48?, but it took over 50BTC each to secure a blade. There just aren't a whole lot of options out there just now.
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