Topic: bustabit – The original crash game - page 113. (Read 61394 times)

No, it was 2x Kelly with the commission and is now 1.5x Kelly without it.

Without the commission, investors' EV for each bet is 1 % (the house edge) and the risk per round is 1.5 % of the bankroll.

I think the worst-case risk growthed from 1.5x Kelly to 2x Kelly after comissions' suspend, but not dropped?

2x Kelly was the risk in the worst-case scenario, where all bets in a round target the same multiplier and would reach the round's profit limit. The intention behind that is to provide high rollers with a good experience on bustabit when several of them are playing at the same time, even if it means accepting suboptimal bets.

Even so, investors were never exposed to risk that carries an expectation of negative bankroll growth. When I suspended the commission, the worst-case risk dropped to 1.5x Kelly, ensuring that their expected bankroll growth was exclusively positive.



That is only the case for an individual investor that (ab)uses the offsite investment system to risk more than he actually has.

The offsite system is meant to allow investors to lower their counterparty risk and free up liquidity by not depositing their entire investment. I strongly recommend to only use it for that purpose. If you use the offsite system properly or don't use it at all, you never have an expectation of negative growth.

If you honestly believe that I have defrauded someone, open a scam accusation and let the community be the judge.

Feel free to link to that scam accusation in this thread as well, but please stop hijacking it. Even though you keep moving the goalposts, all of your accusations have been addressed and this is getting repetitive.

now I am confused. if 2x is leading to 0 bank toll growth then 3x is even worse and should lead to bank roll = investors losses. I dont see a reason to allow 3x then. please correct me if I am wrong

It used to be required for all users, but currently the minimum required is 1.5x (due to the 25% commission having been temporarily suspended). You can leverage that up to 3x if you want to. That is the optional part.

I'm confused and can't really tell from looking at the site (never even deposited bits on v2) -  Is the 2x Kelly required for all investors or is it by choice?

Bullshit. More lies.  You expect me to be formal after you tried to hide all of this and dismiss me by abusing your trust and insulting me?  I will be both keeping this thread active and be opening up a full scam accusation on you and your partner.

Yeah, I meant to write "and positive expected bankroll growth" but forgot the word "positive". If you take a bunch of bets with +EV and +EBG  and add another bet with +EV and 0EBG .. the result is still +EV and +EBG. But then I realized, I shouldn't even feed the troll.

But the statement (with the word "positive" added) is totally correct.


Yes, so you've said. How about you open a scam accusation against me in the proper forum, and I'm happy to defend anything I've said or done without derailing this thread.

You delete posts because you get caught in lies.

"In general, all investors have only been exposed to +EV and expected bankroll growth."

This is the exact type of fraud that you're boasting and then you hide it after.

Keep lying and scamming.  The community lets you do it because of your position, but I won't stop trying to put an end to it.

You are such a dishonest and shameful person. 

Most of the volume did come from the whale using multiple accounts trying to win a forced cashout.

You both lied and deceived investors.  You continually lie about being a "regular user" when you have abused and been able to take advantages of your position and ties with devans.

You both solicited for investments and aimed to get as big of a bankroll as possible because at 2x kelly bets, all the risk is on the investors which are exposed to zero bankroll growth, and devans gets an immediate cut based on how big the wagers are.

You solicited investments and defrauded investors.

That's the scam.  devans made 124 bitcoin off of it. 

And when did devans make his 124 bitcoin of profit at the expense of his investors?

Was it during the 1.5x kelly stage when investors profited or was it at the 2x kelly stage with no expected bankroll growth and lost several millions of dollars?

The highest the max profit (per game) has ever been is 1.5% of the bankroll. It actually was not ever changed it's just that because the commissions were no longer charged, that went from a ~2x kelly to a 1.5x  (as kelly is effectively a measure of your risk/reward)

Yes, i deleted it. I did not find if max profit was 2% of bankroll ever.
Anyway, if yes, that is common fault - owner and investors.

Almost all of the volume was bets from the single player whale which closed in on 2x kelly more than it was 1x kelly ("in line with the kelly criterion") from devan's post.


Let's fill this out:

2x Kelly for investors = ZERO
-1% House edge for players = MINUS
+0.25% House edge for devans/RHavar = PLUS

Investors were not exposed to what was promised.  It was not in line with the kelly criterion.

If you had explained that investors would be exposed to zero bankroll growth all while devans makes millions of dollars at their benefit, they would not have done it.

You scaled back the kelly to 1.5x instead of 2x but you and devans still profited millions before doing so.

You guys lied several times while doing all of this and tried to make the excuse of recovering from dialing back the kelly to justify your deception and thievery from that before.

You are both dishonest and shameful human beings.  You can insult me and negative tag me all you want to try and hide it, but the fact of it always remains.

thx for explaining. to be frank I dont see any reason to go for a 2x KC with 0 Bank Roll growth. I personally prefer 0.5 and 1x KC, but as it was published and Investors knew the risk of 2x all should be fine IMO

At 2x kelly, an investor simply has 0 expected bankroll growth. That isn't inherently bad or anything (consider that it is still massively +EV), and the risks were well published. It's also worth noting that even when the whale was playing (with multiple accounts) it seemed most of the time he cashed out before the "forced cash out". Which means those bets were all < 2x kelly.

So the reality is, investors were exposed to exactly what was promised: a lot of variance, a lot of EV and a lot of expected bankroll growth (even if there was an occasional bet that didn't improve it).

I think the ideal would be that every investor can pick their own max kelly (e.g. 0.5x, 1x or 2x) and the max-profit becomes a reflection of that. For me personally as an investor, I would rather high risk (e.g. max of 2x kelly) because for me the greatest risk is simply the counter-party risk (you basically send someone your coins, and hope they're honest with them) but I've talked to some other investors who have said they would prefer a 0.5x kelly as they find the swings disconcerting.

In the end though, everyone needs to look at the risks and decide if it's something they want to partake in. But honestly, this whole discussion is a waste of time: bustabit did exactly what was promised and investor are now sitting on $3.1 million dollars in profit (which they are free to withdraw at any time) after merely weeks.  My understanding from talking to some of the larger investors is that everyone is very happy with the way it is being operated (although there admittedly were some grumblings about the commissions back when the site was deep in the red).

--

Also to clarify, I am strictly speaking as just a normal user/investor -- I do not have an ongoing role in bustabit. I am just trying to clarify the nonsense being posted. Do not take anything I say as an official statement or position

RHavar appeared online after my last two responses to him.  He is refusing to answer.  He is probably trying to find a way to discredit me or bring up some issue that does not have any involvement here.

Maybe he is having trouble reading.  Let's make it easier for him.

According to kelly criterion models, which of these best apply for long term?

2x Kelly for investors = PLUS, MINUS, or  ZERO?
-1% House edge for players = PLUS, MINUS, or ZERO?
+0.25% House edge for devans/RHavar = PLUS, MINUS, or ZERO?

if RHavar confirmed 2x KC so please lets hear his opinion why he did use a 2x KC as he knows very good the risk of 2x KC

Red trust hurts everyone.  RHavar and others are using it to try and discredit me but also show a deterrent to anyone else that might speak out about their Bustabit scam.

RHavar confirmed 2x kelly here: