bustabit – The original crash game - page 116.

devans

sr. member

Activity: 528

Merit: 368

Quote from: quickmaffs on February 25, 2018, 11:00:28 PM

This site is a sham.

It does not follow 1x kelly and all investors will eventually lose all their money.

RHavar and devans lied about the kelly criteria all while getting their fixed share. They both need to be tagged here and outted on Reddit.

Could you clarify what you think I lied about, please? We openly discussed the reasoning behind accepting some >1x Kelly rounds in this very thread as early as two weeks ago. The site makes no secret of risking 1.5 % of the bankroll per game either.

The worst possible scenario of a single player controlling all bets in a round and targeting a single multiplier has a risk of 1.5x Kelly for investors. At this risk investors still have an expectation that their investment will grow, assuming they don't abuse the offsite system to overleverage.

I am the only the one who–normally–receives any fixed commission from bustabit. A little over a week ago I suspended the commission in order to help investors recover and prop up the max bet and profit.

quickmaffs

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

This site is a sham.

It does not follow 1x kelly and all investors will eventually lose all their money.

RHavar and devans lied about the kelly criteria all while getting their fixed share. They both need to be tagged here and outted on Reddit.

quickmaffs

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: RHavar on February 25, 2018, 08:31:54 PM

Quote from: quickmaffs on February 25, 2018, 07:44:55 PM

That's a bold faced lie.

You were the first investor because you knew when it was launching and originally received 10% dilution fees from everyone.

I was certainly an early investor, but I don't see how that changes anything -- especially on account that Daniel reimbursed everyone for the 10% dilution fees out of pocket. Anyway, my net profit/loss from dilution fees is pretty negligible. Not sure exactly, but I suspect it's < 1% of my investing loss (which with hindsight my investment has been the single biggest financial mistake of my life Tongue

) But I'm not going to complain, I knew the risks and based on the current volumes it's seems pretty likely the site will get out of the red in the next 6 months (in fact, I've recently seen it in positive profit briefly twice so far during the crazy whale action).

Regardless, I really don't know what more you expect. The site is already running with no commissions, did a pretty big refund to investors and lowered the worst-case kelly. If you're not prepared to absorb (a lot of) variance, don't join the bankroll.

It shows that you lied. Doesn't matter if it you claim it was negligible or not. Don't claim that you had the same risk and playing level as everyone else when you didn't.

What more can we expect? That you don't lie.

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Quote from: quickmaffs on February 25, 2018, 07:44:55 PM

That's a bold faced lie.

You were the first investor because you knew when it was launching and originally received 10% dilution fees from everyone.

I was certainly an early investor, but I don't see how that changes anything -- especially on account that Daniel reimbursed everyone for the 10% dilution fees out of pocket. Anyway, my net profit/loss from dilution fees is pretty negligible. Not sure exactly, but I suspect it's < 1% of my investing loss (which with hindsight my investment has been the single biggest financial mistake of my life Tongue

) But I'm not going to complain, I knew the risks and based on the current volumes it's seems pretty likely the site will get out of the red in the next 6 months (in fact, I've recently seen it in positive profit briefly twice so far during the crazy whale action).

Regardless, I really don't know what more you expect. The site is already running with no commissions, did a pretty big refund to investors and lowered the worst-case kelly. If you're not prepared to absorb (a lot of) variance, don't join the bankroll.

quickmaffs

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: RHavar on February 24, 2018, 05:32:38 PM

Quote from: Lionidas on February 24, 2018, 05:09:53 PM

Let me guess who that reasonably large investor is...
Could it be you? The former site owner?

Yes, I was speaking about myself when I said: "as a reasonably large investor in the bankroll".

And just to be clear, I am doing it own volition (not as part of the sale or anything) and under the same terms as everyone else. I'm a bit of a fan of +EV deals, and trust Daniel with the amount I have invested. (Although don't take that as an endorsement). I've only invested what I'm ok with losing, (which is a real possibility with an extreme variance investment like BaB and an angry whale).

I've also similarly invested in other casino bankrolls in the past (as well as things like margin lending), when I thought it made sense.

That's a bold faced lie.

You were the first investor because you knew when it was launching and originally received 10% dilution fees from everyone.

Devans: +124 Bitcoin
Investers: -553 Bitcoin

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Quote from: Lionidas on February 24, 2018, 05:09:53 PM

Let me guess who that reasonably large investor is...
Could it be you? The former site owner?

Yes, I was speaking about myself when I said: "as a reasonably large investor in the bankroll".

And just to be clear, I am doing it own volition (not as part of the sale or anything) and under the same terms as everyone else. I'm a bit of a fan of +EV deals, and trust Daniel with the amount I have invested. (Although don't take that as an endorsement). I've only invested what I'm ok with losing, (which is a real possibility with an extreme variance investment like BaB and an angry whale).

I've also similarly invested in other casino bankrolls in the past (as well as things like margin lending), when I thought it made sense.

Lionidas

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1012

Quote from: RHavar on February 24, 2018, 04:32:37 PM

Quote from: DarkDays on February 24, 2018, 03:41:35 PM

A site owner, who cannot finance his own game, taking a profit while the investors that finance the entire operation take a loss will never sit right with me.

Hm? Well Daniel hasn't been taking a commission for a while now. But as a reasonably large investor in the bankroll, I would have no problems even if he was. His job is to keep the site running, improve it, keep bringing in players etc. And it's investors job to eat the variance. He shouldn't really need to worry about things out of his control (like if players or investors are getting unlucky)

While I would never encourage people to invest (after all, it's more of a good-odds gamble than anything) it seems like a perfectly reasonable arrangement to me, with investors having no commitment and an expected 75% of the sites profit. And in fact, I think is more beneficial for the long-term prospects of the site (e.g. if you want to start hiring and have an advertising budget .. having a stable income is pretty important).

But I think it's worth emphasizing, the whole reason the site gives investors so much of it's expected profits is precisely as compensation for risks like this. Assuming there's no funny business happening, I don't think anyone has any legitimate reason to be complaining.

Let me guess who that reasonably large investor is...
Could it be you? The former site owner?
It would make sense since you have said you would continue to be a partner in bustadice and I am thinking you have said before you would be a co owner of the new iteration of the bustabit site as well.

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Quote from: DarkDays on February 24, 2018, 03:41:35 PM

A site owner, who cannot finance his own game, taking a profit while the investors that finance the entire operation take a loss will never sit right with me.

Hm? Well Daniel hasn't been taking a commission for a while now. But as a reasonably large investor in the bankroll, I would have no problems even if he was. His job is to keep the site running, improve it, keep bringing in players etc. And it's investors job to eat the variance. He shouldn't really need to worry about things out of his control (like if players or investors are getting unlucky)

While I would never encourage people to invest (after all, it's more of a good-odds gamble than anything) it seems like a perfectly reasonable arrangement to me, with investors having no commitment and an expected 75% of the sites profit. And in fact, I think is more beneficial for the long-term prospects of the site (e.g. if you want to start hiring and have an advertising budget .. having a stable income is pretty important).

But I think it's worth emphasizing, the whole reason the site gives investors so much of it's expected profits is precisely as compensation for risks like this. Assuming there's no funny business happening, I don't think anyone has any legitimate reason to be complaining.

DarkDays

legendary

Activity: 2030

Merit: 1189

Quote from: Samarkand on February 24, 2018, 04:30:43 AM

Quote from: quickmaffs on February 23, 2018, 05:03:46 PM

Devans: +124 Bitcoin
Investers: -531 Bitcoin

This is the beauty of charging a fixed commission while investors are exposed
to all the variance Grin

However, the outcome for investors is still easily within the possible range of outcomes.
Variance can be crazy in a game with a very small house edge and high betting limits.
Both requirements are definitely fulfilled by Bustabit.

Bustadice was at a loss for the investors for several months after the site launch and suddenly
1 losing day of a whale was enough to turn around 4 months of investor losses.
It is entirely possible that the situation at Bustabit could play out similar or that the situation
for the investors gets even worse as players continue to perform above expectation.

A site owner, who cannot finance his own game, taking a profit while the investors that finance the entire operation take a loss will never sit right with me.

Samarkand

sr. member

Activity: 658

Merit: 282

Quote from: quickmaffs on February 23, 2018, 05:03:46 PM

Devans: +124 Bitcoin
Investers: -531 Bitcoin

This is the beauty of charging a fixed commission while investors are exposed
to all the variance Grin

However, the outcome for investors is still easily within the possible range of outcomes.
Variance can be crazy in a game with a very small house edge and high betting limits.
Both requirements are definitely fulfilled by Bustabit.

Bustadice was at a loss for the investors for several months after the site launch and suddenly
1 losing day of a whale was enough to turn around 4 months of investor losses.
It is entirely possible that the situation at Bustabit could play out similar or that the situation
for the investors gets even worse as players continue to perform above expectation.

Lionidas

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1012

Quote from: devans on February 23, 2018, 06:16:45 AM

Quote from: Cluster2k on February 17, 2018, 05:36:38 PM

Great restyling, I like it a lot. Loving the public bankroll too.

Is the shiba chat bot still active?

Shiba is back and available in chat again!

Noticed him pop back up last night while betting a bit.
Someone called "bot" is on there too and thought it was shiba but then it was talking to the players and not just canned answers that shiba would give out to certain commands.
Some big players last night betting 20btc at a time were there briefly as well last night.
You can tell they had alot of bitcoin to wager with because the maximum site profit was at 18btc at one point but then back to where it was before they arrived and starting betting within an hour again. Undecided

quickmaffs

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Devans: +124 Bitcoin
Investers: -531 Bitcoin

devans

sr. member

Activity: 528

Merit: 368

Quote from: Cluster2k on February 17, 2018, 05:36:38 PM

Great restyling, I like it a lot. Loving the public bankroll too.

Is the shiba chat bot still active?

Shiba is back and available in chat again!

devans

sr. member

Activity: 528

Merit: 368

Quote from: Hatcher on February 19, 2018, 01:54:15 AM

Well, perhaps you could make that happen now if you want investors.

We know that the the 0% commission isn't going to last forever but the real appeal to investors would be that you can invest without having to pay a dilution fee. 1% is still quite a bit if the majority of prospective investors are already involved.

It's really not that significant, even if you assume that nobody will invest after you and you never receive any dilution fees yourself. Currently 80 BTC in volume a day is enough to earn back the dilution fee in expected value within a month. bustabit is averaging much more than that.

bustadice's situation was different in that it does not have the track record that bustabit has. Paying an upfront fee is less stomachable when it's unclear whether the casino will even see any volume.

Hatcher

full member

Activity: 369

Merit: 111

Quote from: devans on February 17, 2018, 09:56:20 AM

Decreased the dilution fee to 1 %
Previously new investors paid 10 % of their investment to the existing investors in order to compensate them for being diluted. Unlike bustadice, bustabit did not have an introductory period in which investors could join without paying the dilution fee. Because of that I think a lot of potential investors were deterred from investing, which is now holding bustabit back.

For that reason I have lowered the dilution fee to 1 %. Once bustabit's bankroll is more established, the dilution fee will be raised again, benefitting everyone that has invested by then.

Obviously, this alone would be very unfair to the investors that have already paid the fee at 10 %. To compensate them, I have refunded all investors that have paid more in dilution fees than they have gained the difference in fee rate out of pocket.

Well, perhaps you could make that happen now if you want investors.

We know that the the 0% commission isn't going to last forever but the real appeal to investors would be that you can invest without having to pay a dilution fee. 1% is still quite a bit if the majority of prospective investors are already involved.

NLNico

legendary

Activity: 1876

Merit: 1303

DiceSites.com owner

Quote from: monbux on February 18, 2018, 10:09:47 PM

Could someone explain why https://dicesites.com/bustabit displays the site being 3,156.5 BTC in the red? The site itself is only showing -65BTC. Was this because of a stats reset?

The short version would be that it was just an error on my side, fixed now

(graphs still need adjustment though.)

Quote from: devans on February 16, 2018, 01:45:07 PM

What time zone do you use to calculate the daily wager volume?

I am using eastern time zone (NY.) I actually regret that and have considered switching to UTC many times but I kinda got stuck on it lol. But it's same for all sites so still fine from that perspective. (The JD stats text file was just copied from JD before it was switched to Clam and therefor obviously in UTC.)

monbux

legendary

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1029

Could someone explain why https://dicesites.com/bustabit displays the site being 3,156.5 BTC in the red? The site itself is only showing -65BTC. Was this because of a stats reset?

DarkStar_

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 3284

Quote from: devans on February 17, 2018, 09:56:20 AM

Obviously, this alone would be very unfair to the investors that have already paid the fee at 10 %. To compensate them, I have refunded all investors that have paid more in dilution fees than they have gained the difference in fee rate out of pocket.

Thanks for doing this Grin

Lionidas

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1012

Quote from: Cluster2k on February 17, 2018, 05:36:38 PM

Great restyling, I like it a lot. Loving the public bankroll too.

Is the shiba chat bot still active?

I remember shiba bot on the last site.
It was funny to watch how many different answers it would give for each inquiry that were typed in on the one channel there with the swatika. Cheesy

Maybe I'll come by now that I have more free time to check it out and start on there if it is as cool as everybody is saying it is again. Wink

I need a change in scenery from the current slump I am in and bustabit version 2.0 seem like the right place to visit now. Grin

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

Great restyling, I like it a lot. Loving the public bankroll too.

Is the shiba chat bot still active?

Topic: bustabit – The original crash game - page 116. (Read 61394 times)