I had to crash last ngiht, did that big bet ever go down? If so what was the outcome?
It didn't go down because it got too late for CoinRocket. He's on the East Coast. We postponed it to 11pm Eastern, 8pm Pacific tonight.
Here's the story, as I saw it:
I went to moneypot.com last night and saw Eric (the owner) betting 500k bits (0.5 BTC) over and over again. It's not like him to play on his own site, so I asked what was going on.
It turned out that a player called CoinRocket had been saying that the site never picks high multipliers when people bet big, Eric had countered that the multiplier it packs is independent of the bet size, and they had decided to settle the dispute by betting on it. Eric was to bet 500k bits 20 times at an auto-cashout of 2x and if he won 9 or more he would win a 1 BTC bet against CoinRocket. If he won less than 9 times he would give CoinRocket 1 BTC.
Eric only won 7 or so out of 20 and so CoinRocket won the bet.
Someone said that 20 trials wasn't enough to prove anything, and that we should do more. I volunteered to try a longer sequence.
CoinRocket suggested the new bet should be that I bet 500k bits 200 times at 2x and if I win at least 90 of them, I win the bet.
It seems the bet is 10 BTC, 1:1 payout (2x). But he offered a side bet to anyone watching where he's willing to pay 3:2 (2.5x). It seems a little unfair that I get a worse payout than the observers, since I'm taking the risk of playing for large stakes on moneypot, but I think that's the offer.
There was a lot of discussion about what to do if the game forced everyone out early. There's a maximum house loss of 2 BTC per game. If there are bets totalling 2.1 BTC then the multiplier won't go higher than around 1.9x because at that point (assuming nobody cashed out yet) the player profit would be 2 BTC. At that point the game pays everyone out at 1.9x and announces what the actual pre-selected crash point would have been.
CoinRocket suggested that if the game forced everyone out early, before 2x, then that should be considered a "draw", and skipped. I countered that the problem with that is that he could force me to lose the bet by betting 1.6 BTC every game. Then I'd never reach 2x, but would often lose before the 1.9x multiplier was reached.
Eric suggested that we could work around this by just ignoring any game where 1.99 BTC or more was wagered.
So I think that's the story so far. I made a new account, 'doog2' for the bet.