For homework, you children should calculate the hashing power AM and Avalon are responsible for bringing online so far. Add those 2 values together and add 20 Th/s (the network hash rate at the beginning of the year), then subtract this new value from the current network hash rate. You will have a number representing the hashing power brought online by everyone but AM and Avalon. Explain where this hashing power came from if not BFL.
The problem is that both ASICMiner and Avalon are opaque. We only know about units shipped in the public sale batches from Avalon, and the public farm ASICMiner reports on. Even so, with the first 2 batches from Avalon running at ~60TH (900 x 65GH/s) and batch 3 at 40TH/s (600x65GH/s) and ASICMiner public mine running at ~40TH/s that is almost 2/3rds of the network. ASICMiner sells blades to private investors as well and there is no way to know how many they made or sold. Legacy FPGAs & GPUs probably still account for between 10-20TH/s. The 30day estimate puts the network hashrate at 240TH/s
Back of the envelope says:
Avalon batches account for 100TH/s
ASICMiner public mine accounts for 40TH/s
FPGAs + GPUs 15TH/s (assuming a lot of hash power has left for Litecoin)
ASICMiner Block Eruptor Blades (10-13GH/s each ) & USB sticks + BFL = 85TH/s
ASICMiner Block Eruptor Blades have been shipping in bulk since early May.
BFL has been shipping Jalapenos since late April and Singles since June.
There is no way to know how much either company has shipped.
Batch 3 Avalons have only just started shipping and some people still haven't received batch orders yet. It would be more reasonable to assume that 900 units have shipped rather than 1500.
First, I got my math wrong:
ASICMiner Block Eruptor Blades (10-13GH/s each ) & USB sticks + BFL = 85TH/s
The first reported (in English on these forums) batch 3 unit in hand was over a week and a half ago. We don't know how many batch 3 units were shipped to destinations in China which would have arrived much sooner (no 2-3 week boat ride, no customs, etc). Large mining operations in China could have picked up the units themselves from the factory for even earlier deployment, which would be in their best interest to do.
AM recently released a financial report. It included the following:
Mining Income: 102,041.82BTC
Blade Sales Income: 29,594.75BTC
USB Sales Income: 37,524.00BTC
If we assume it is a gross figure, then they auctioned off at least 600 blades for between 45-50BTC.
USB is a bit trickier since they have two price points. Assuming that the batches were equal size, then we have around 24,000 USB miners shipped. If that income is all from the first sales point, then only about 18,000 were shipped.
So, (assuming gross figures) at least 7.8 TH/s from blade auctions and 6-10 TH/s from USB miners.
We can only estimate lower bounds of sales by ASICMiner and Avalon. If either ASICMiner or Avalon (or both) licensed their designs to mining concerns and sold them chips, then there could be significant clone installations out there by now. If the ASICMiner IP was in a different company, those licensing deals would not be reported. Avalon doesn't have any sort of financial reporting, and neither does BFL.
If I had to guess, I would say by now BFL has shipped about 800 singles (of the 60 GH/s variety) and at least 2000 Jalapeno's by now. That puts them around about 60 TH/s. Tack on the 8 mini-rigs known of, and we can say at least 65 TH/s total. That seems reasonable given the rest of the numbers.
So that is 3 days of singles and 7 days of Jalapeno's. If they are shipping 300 units a day, what did they do for the other 50 work days?