Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 103. (Read 129983 times)

This is the only simple introduction easy way for any investor to follow the DCA method in Bitcoin to get more benefits and keep the money safe. Because if they can hold Bitcoin in the right way that will be the key to their success, because every investor will be successful in the current dip in the market. But only long-term investment success is at its peak, if you observe, you can see that big investors from past times are relying on DCA method till now. And they are successful and made mountains of money just by investing in 10 to 12 years DCO method, I have seen on social media many people depend on DCA method and become self-sufficient.

The government has never given wealth to anyone except for a monthly salary if the person is a civil servant and even then it is only enough for living expenses for one month, there is nothing more, let alone being rich because now some civil servants must also have businesses and other investments so that they can become rich. I understand what you are saying because maybe you were not born into a rich family even though you may have become rich through your own Bitcoin efforts and investments at this time.

For now, everyone is quite aware that without trying and investing in a better sector, it will be difficult in the end because their parents' wealth will also be eroded if the person is not good at maintaining it and is not smart enough to increase it more. So the steps you have built for long-term investment in Bitcoin for the duration you mentioned are actually quite right and need to be continued more consistently without having to think about other people's assessments of you.

You have a good point here and one thing I will add is that those of us that understand the importance of self custody can do better by buying and holding our bitcoin and not giving the control of our investment to a third party. Big players understand where bitcoin is going that is why they are actively doing their best to secure as many bitcoin as possible. We cannot beat them because they have deep pockets so the best we can do is to play along which is following them to buy and HODL. We are just lucky we have a forum like this that is teaching people to HODL and how to buy so that hodling will be possible and easy to implement. Many people are already using the knowledge shared here to better their lives and put their finances to proper use.

Good example but no good points to conclude. I am very impressed with those who have invested in bitcoin for a long time, especially those who are able to maintain their lust for not taking profits.

It is indeed quite unfortunate if someone has great wealth but does not realize their dreams and does not mean the money they have.

We or I myself live very simply and have many dreams that I have dreamed of so far, so the investment in Bitcoin that I have been doing has almost entered 2 years with routine accumulation every week. So in that case I have a target in investing in bitcoin, maybe the long term is around 10 years, if I reach a level of satisfaction it does not mean I will sell my BTC ownership but I will realize my dream, maybe I have explained in the previous post.

It's up to those who have lived in luxury before because they are descendants of rich people. So money will no longer mean anything, they don't even have to buy a luxury car or a luxury house because they are provided with luxurious living facilities by their parents or by the government.

You have not yet learned your lesson from your waiting to buy in October 2023 (around $27k) when you were waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening?  Another thing is that historically, the 200-WMA is o.k. to use as a measurement when we finally get back into a bear market, yet we are still currently in a bull market, so you might be being a bit too greedy when you are holding back so much waiting to get close to the 200-WMA that may well not end up happening until much later... and yeah, I will concede that whether we are in a bear market or a bull market tends to be a lagging indicator, so sometimes, we can end up getting back into a bear market and perhaps the touching on the 200-WMA could be a sign that we are back in a bear market.


Your naming of percentages of gross income is really confusing, even though it could be a decently good starting point to overall consider how much income you want to attempt to target for investing/saving... .. The more accurate way to go about these matters is to start from your discretionary income, and in that regard the discretionary income is the total amount of income that you have available for investing, since it is what is left after you have subtracted out expenses, and most people are not even close to investing 100% of their discretionary income since they are using some of their discretionary income to consume or even to save for consumption purposes, and so there might be confusion or even disagreement about what is consumption and what is expenses, since sometimes they overlap too... and some kinds of consumption expenses are needed to have a normal happy life or even to keep family happy by taking them out for dinner once in a while, even if it costs more.

So you could take from your discretionary income and even the quantity that you have already allocated towards investing into bitcoin, and you could decide how much of that to DCA and how much to save for buying on dips, and my suggestion has frequently been that newbie bitcoin investors, especially those who are generally struggling to invest into bitcoin, maybe only able to spare $10 to $50 per week into bitcoin, they should probably allocate almost all of their  BTC allocated amount to just DCA buying bitcoin every week and don't be fucking around trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not, and maybe any of the BTC newbies in that category may well have to spend a whole cycle or even more than their first whole cycle to just DCA buy BTC every week and not be screwing around trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not or how much of a dip there might be in the future.

The more discretionary income that you have and the more that you are able to allocate towards bitcoin and also the more BTC that you have already accumulated, then the more you might be able to set aside some money for buying on dips to supplement your DCA amount. So for example if you have $100 per week that you could invest into bitcoin, and now  you choose to ONLY invest $10 DCA and save $90 for buying on dips (more dips from here), that seems retarded and even gambling... but maybe buying $70-$80 per week and saving $20-$30 per week for dips could be more reasonable, yet these calculations would likely only apply for those who have already accumulated a decent amount of DCA rather than for those who are still in their first BTC cycle of accumulation and they really have not even accumulated very much bitcoin in comparison to their income and/or expenses.... Many times, I have already mentioned that someone who is ONLY able to invest around 10% of his income per year into bitcoin, it is going to take him 10 years before he has invested an equivalent of a whole years salary into bitcoin, and even then salaries are increasing too in order to keep up with the debasement of the currency. and perhaps some people are going to be receiving promotions and increases in their salaries which may well also contribute to their increasing in their standard of living and how much they perceive that they need to have to live. 

Surely, we hope that the appreciation of bitcoin keeps up with increases in the standard of living and even keeps up with the likely ongoing debasement of the dollar (or whatever fiat currency is being used), but there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to appreciate in value greater than the increases in the standard of living and/or the debasement of the currency.


Of course, the worse course of action after reaching the target would be to switch from buying and then into immediately selling it all.. .but surely people do those kinds of things, and yeah, maybe they are using bitcoin to save for something like a house or a car.. so they could have some consumption or investment good or something that could be considered a combination of the two.


I think that we should be attempting to measure based on both, and some people do want to continuously increase their BTC until reaching their target level and others might be searching for a dollar value of their stash, and others might want the BTC stack to be worth a certain quantity of years of expenses, and surely in the last several years, my own valuations of my stash have been trying to consider its value in terms of the 200-WMA, yet at the same time, any of us know that if we make actual sales of bitcoin, we would be selling them at spot price, yet if we are mostly holding them, we still can consider valuing the ones that we are holding in terms of some kind of a more stable indicator rather than ONLY bouncing around with the spot price.  


I did not miss the points that you were making, and in some sense, we were making different points.  Your points are surely valid, and there can be some value in terms of seeing what "whales" are doing.

You likely could see that I try to consider more in terms of what each of us can do in order to become our own version of a whale, which is my example of a person with 100 BTC pretty much being set for life if he knows how to manage his BTC.... Surely someone with thousands of BTC is even more of a whale, yet I have my doubts if they are participating in threads like these. but yeah, maybe some of them might from time to time.. yet at the same time, someone with thousands of BTC may well have various other income streams but even if we were to take someone like the draper example, and if you might suggest that over 10 years his 30k BTC stash went down to 29,500-ish, and so over the last 10 years, he might have had lived off of and/or spent 500 BTC for his personal consumption (if maybe we were to assume that the 30k BTC were to be the ONLY thing that he has, which with Draper many of us already knows that he is a venture capitalist, so he has other investments besides merely the 30k BTC that he bought in 2014 during the fed auction.


I cannot argue with any of this, and yeah more and more BIG money is getting drawn into bitcoin, while at the same time, some of the smaller players and those accumulating bitcoin can get distracted by bitcoin's volatility, so each of us surely need to keep some kind of an ongoing BTC accumulation strategy including potentially having several BTC accumulation targets along the way, so it may be a bit unrealistic for a brand new investor who ONLY has a budget of $100 per week for bitcoin to be expecting that he is going to reach 1 whole bitcoin any time soon, and with that kind of a budget, he may well not even reach 1 whole bitcoin in 10 years, unless he is expecting increases in his bitcoin budget and/or possible abilities to invest more at periodic times in the coming 10 years, and I am not even suggesting that there is a need to focus on 1 bitcoin, since the need is more likely to focus on however much BTC that each of us is able to accumulate within our own financial and psychological means.


Of course, the ETFs are buying bitcoin to represent the ETF share ownership of individuals, institutions and/or governments who are buying such ETF shares, and yeah, of course, it is not the same as directly owning the BTC... which can be a bit problematic in regards to bitcoin's being used for direct transactions, which is what brings power to BTC and power to individuals who hold BTC... and surely some might even consider ETFs and other forms of third party interference with BTC direct ownership to be attacks on BTC.. which is not completely untrue.

I would like to point out that during last few years there was big change in population that owns BTC. Few years ago the most owners of BTC wallets were individuals, but now with ETF funds more and more BTC becomes ownership of the banks, trusts and other organisations.

https://river.com/learn/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin/

The example wasn't meant to be a suggestion or anything. Of course everyone can do as they please. But I think there is this misconception that everyone thrives for a target and then blows up all savings on a luxury life. I have seen quite a few people where I wondered why they live that modest lifestyle despite being very wealthy. And I had the pleasure to talk to some of them and it was always the same: when they are young, they think once they have the first million, it must be the Ferrari immediately. Of course some do buy a Ferrari then, but many do not.

As you mentioned before, targets are something people set to have a goal they are thriving for, but that doesn't mean once that target is reached they will instantly change their course of action. In relation to bitcoin it could be price or quantity.  And part of my example was a whale called Draper and there are many more, I checked the number of the biggest wallets and whether the number of wallets > 1 BTC,>10 BTC, >100 BTC, >1,000 BTC ever changed. There was a guy here somewhere claiming that I think smart money is selling at the moment. Seems to not be the case as the number of all whale wallets did at least remain relatively stable for many years. You could argue that from end of 2023 >10,000 BTC wallets dropped from 120 to around 100. But from 2021 to 2023 it first increased from 80 to 120. And ever since 2014 the number of whale wallets >10,000 remains at today's level. It is around 100 wallets. Even if someone empties their bag, someone else seems to be buying it. Obviously there are fluctuations and people took profits over the course of so many years, but there have still been whales gobbling up tons of BTC.

I think those are important indicators for the small guys around here. They may not do that research, read from someone that smart money is leaving the market and then they slowly get into a panic mode and decide to sell immediately at or below their target as if it was a smart decision and a relief. But when you look at the hard facts, bitcoin is doing amazing. Rhetorics about it are changing in all parts of society. Politics, banks, many institutions, former critics and so on. This may not immediately be reflected by price, but I believe it will. Bitcoin has a very strong pull effect as it is brutally resilient.

This is merely my personal opinion, but that DIP was NOT the actual DIP. Follow and study the price and its relationship with the 200-Weekly Simple Moving Average. If you haven't made a lump sum purchase with your savings yet, then it's probably better to DCA 10% of your salary and continue saving the rest while waiting for a crash near the level of the 200-Weekly SMA.

Or if you believe that 10% is too small to DCA, make it 20% monthly divided into weekly purchases - 5% of your monthly salary each week. Although that might be too high for those people who have families to support.

Sometimes I might even make misleading statements.  Of course the different kinds of funds should have priorities, so it is true if you have spent all of your reserve funds, then the ONLY thing that you are going to have left is your emergency fund, and that might already be a sign that you are fucking up if you are going to be dipping into your emergency funds for non emergencies, yet if someone is brand new to investing into bitcoin, he might have had never been in the practice of creating and maintaining any kind of emergency funds or even back up funds greater than just a few weeks of money to cover expenses, yet when someone starts to invest into an asset as volatile as bitcoin, there may be a preference to at least build up an emergency fund that is around equal the size of the bitcoin investment size, at least during the process of the first 3-12 months while the emergency fund is being built up it may well be preferable to simultaneously invest into bitcoin.  It could take some folks a year or even more just to have built up 3 months of emergency fund and an investment into bitcoin that equals the size of the emergency fund, so during any kind of building process if there is any dipping into emergency funds, there is also risks, but there also could be knowledge of what it your ability to replace the amount that you had taken from the emergency fund, so you have a lot of flexibility in terms of borrowing from various funds, and some funds have more priority than others.

Let's say for example, you had spent more than 2 years investing into bitcoin, and you had established an emergency fund that is around 3 months of your expenses, and your bitcoin investment is around 4-5 months of expenses, and you have also begun to save cash in various reserve funds, such as 1) fund to update to a newer model car, 2) fund to take your wife to a nice restaurant / and or go on a short vacation (perhaps just going overnight to a beach location), 3) bicycle for your kid, 4) fund to update your cell phone or computer, 5) fund to replace your refrigerator or your microwave, 6)  funds for buying the BTC price dip and 7) other miscellaneous categories of things that you have on your list of wants.   

You would likely have various priorities within each of the categories of funds, and each category is important in its own right, though some of the items are likely to have a higher priorities than others, yet if you were to have an emergency, you would likely draw from these various categories of reserve funds prior to drawing from the emergency funds, and if bitcoin were to dip in price you already have a category of funds, but you might be willing to take from another category of your reserve funds, but you likely would not want to dip into your emergency fund, so if you have already been creating these categories of funds, you may or may not change your mind regarding how you categorize those extra funds if the BTC price were to drop to a certain enticing level.. and you have the choice about how much you feel that you are able to deviate in terms of your priorities, and maybe all of your reserve funds all together add up to about 1.5 months of your expenses.. but still you have 3 months of emergency funds, 1.5 months of reserve funds, you have around 4 months invested in bitcoin and perhaps you have 1 or 2 weeks of money in your float that might or might not come available based on how much cushion and/or flexibility you might have in your float. 

There is no obvious way forward, and if you might be having some dilemmas regarding the various priorities of the funds, you might have to rethink matters, and if you did end up using some of the reserve money to buy BTC then you should feel some priority to replace that money, even though it might take time to replace the amount that you had used.. and in the meantime, perhaps you have an amount that you had been DCAing into BTC the whole time, so then you might start to wonder whether it is worth all of the stress to be taking from other categories of funds to buy the dip when you already had part of your reserve fund dedicated to buying the dip, so the mere fact that you already used your buy the dip portion, and the BTC price kept dipping, that might not be enough of a reason to tap into other parts of your reserve funds and otherwise create stress upon yourself to have to replace those funds.. yet in the end, you are the sole person who has to decide whether you want to use other funds and if you also want to exhaust your various reserve funds so much that you might end up having to tap into your emergency fund for some reason that would not have had even been an emergency, except for the fact that you had used all of your other reserve funds and you did not have any reserve funds left, so all you have left is your emergency funds, which seems like a place that you should not easily get to.

Yeah actually sometimes we end up complicating ourselves by trying to prove a point, I admit that my framing of work does not explain more better, like I said sometimes we complicate ourselves. But I guess carefulness need to be adhered in other not to go contrary or becoming a kind of misleading person hahaha.

That's hilarious. Actually my intention was not to be extravagant in spending to the extent of using all my reserved fund and hoping to use my emergency fund as backup fund, but I was talking in anticipation of a statement you made sometimes ago concerning using some part of our emergency fund if a person is out of reserved, but I have searched for pages but can't figure out the exact place you made such reference. But anyway thanks for the correction we need to be careful as adults to manage our finances very well so that we can be in position to bail others not others bailing us out.  all other explanation has been Noted.

Your description of the various kinds of back up funds is a wee bit confusing Samlucky O.

Of course you can call them whatever you like, but if you end up fucking up because you are not really using your back up funds properly, and then an emergency comes, you are going to be the one that has to live with the consequences, and yeah some people have others who can bail them out, yet part of being a responsible adult should that we should strive to not have to depend on others to bail us out - and also maybe the more mature that we get, we would not want to put anyone in a position where they have to bail us out, even though from time to time, if we are financially responsible and perhaps more wealthy, we might be bailing others out, perhaps from some form of our reserve funds.

Generally speaking all of the back up funds and any investments that any of us make should be coming out of and being built from our disposable income, so part of the point of any investment is that we would be anticipating our investment portfolio to be growing with time and we are not having to tap into them for any reason outside of some of our own choices regarding how and when to tap into them.

Sometimes people spend many years building an investing and struggling to get it to a certain size, yet they end up engaging in poor cashflow management, and they end up facing some situation(s) in which they are forced to spend from their investment, and if they had engaged in stronger cashflow management, they would have had options which would include to spend from their various backup funds prior to having to tap into their investments, especially their bitcoin investment.

So surely various kinds of back up funds should be considered as having priorities, and the reason that we label emergency fund in that kind of a way, means that we would be in some pretty bad situation that might involve loss of income and/or increases in expenses, so from my thinking if we are engaging in strong cashflow management, we might never have to ever dip into our emergency fund for 20-30 years or even more, because part of the reason that people have emergencies in the first place is because they don't have sufficient back up funds. 

So if emergency funds are something that we never want to touch (or we hope we never get into such a situation that we need to touch them), then we might well have various other funds that we would use prior to even considering touching our emergency funds, and if we are tapping into our emergency funds, we most likely would have had exhausted our other means first... I really doubt that it is a good idea to consider bitcoin price movements as an emergency.. so buying more bitcoin based on some kind of a super opportunistic price dip opportunity would come from the reserves and never end up touching emergency funds.. and  another thing is that for most people, it probably would be good to have at least 3 months of emergency funds, yet if you are a person who has complicated cashflow situations, many family obligations, and perhaps other complications like a business, then you might need to keep more than 3 months of emergency funds.. but surely you would likely already be in the practice of keeping reserves too, so between emergency funds and reserve funds, you might have more than 6 months of expenses that you are able to draw from based on the complicated finances that you have.. and guys have to figure out these kinds of matters for themselves since if they end up fucking up in terms of  a lack of quantity of back up funds (no matter what they call them), then they will be stuck with such consequences. 

Surely guys might have extra sources of income (or different kinds of job that they can do) or they might have property that they could rent out and they might even have some family who are in good positions to help them out, so the size of their backup funds might vary based on some of the other kinds of emergency measures that they should be able to take, yet they still could end up in a situation in which even some of their back up cashflows are not able to generate income for them, so the amount of back up funds they keep for those kinds of possible events remains in their complete discretion, even if they might screw things up at inadvertently become overly aggressive in their BTC investment, without realizing that they had crossed from reasonably aggressive and into a overly aggressive status that might end up blowing up on them and seeming to be more like gambling rather than investing.

Note that reserved fund is a permanent amount set aside to be used for future porpos, it is more likely be called disposable income which is set aside after all priorities has been settled, which may likely be bitcoin investment and family expenses.  So in clear terms emergency fund is a seperate fund set aside for emergency which is from the disposal/reserved fund which is used to settle emergency such as unforseen circumstances/contingency. The emergency fund can as well be used as a reserve fund  when there is short of fund in the reserved.

Setting aside emergency fund is not compulsory that it will last for a longer time frame without touching them. There are also times when surely we undergo some financial constrain, instead of dip diving into bitcoin investment. We use some part of the emergency fund as a reserve to keep the bitcoin investment going till we have some money to refill our reserved.

Perhaps emergency funds are more like the back bones of every investment as they serve as protection to our investments, emergency funds, reserve funds etc are literally protecting us from using or tempering with out investments when the unforeseen circumstances occurs, in as much as we can't see the future we really need to prepare for it as times may change and we may not be able to stand the pressure which we will find ourselves in hence deeping hands into our investments would be the only option left and that's where the reserved and emergency funds comes in.

We all have personal decision and opinion in terms of our investment, the one fact about emergency funds is our funds should not stay empty or it’s either you replace back the funds. Whenever an investor face challenges investing the reserve funds can serve as an alternative but, our emergency funds should be accessible not because it’s available for use. Anyone can actually hold their emergency funds for years not minding the time because at any slight mistake it will take time to build another better emergency funds meanwhile without a stable emergency funds an investment can’t stand firm.

Wow.  You don't need to use any such extreme examples of someone who might well be set for life with bitcoin and potentially leading a relatively modest life, and even someone who is sitting on 100 BTC and with hardly any other assets may well have put himself into a position of being somewhere close to a whale in terms of potentially being able to live off the bitcoin with anywhere between $5k and $10k per month worth of spending (withdrawing that much from the bitcoin holdings every month - or the equivalent monthly amounts on a quarterly or yearly basis), and also it would quite likely be the case that the bitcoin value in terms of dollars would be growing in value faster than his withdrawal of the BTC and also faster than the rate of the debasement of the dollar, so even if he is living off of his bitcoin at such rate of between $5k to $10k per month, he could reassess where he is at every few years to decide whether he might be at liberty to increase his income and still have a BTC stash that is sufficiently sustaining its value.  So sure, there could be lifestyle considerations and also considerations if he is ONLY supporting himself or if he is also submitting an family, and of course, where he is at in the world will likely affect his expenses, too.


I doubt that there is any better (or more valuable asset) than bitcoin, yet a person might choose to withdraw bitcoin to either consume or to even diversify his assets, including potentially getting some enjoyment out of something like a house, even if a house would not have very high likelihood of being a better investment than bitcoin, but still people do get value and senses of satisfaction and even comfort by various kinds of property ownership, whether considered as investmennt properties, or consumption properties or some combination of property characteristics..

Those who stucked physical currency in Banks or personal savings are just some kind of selfish and people who lacks vision of making profitable investments that can stand a long time and even being inherited by their offspring because I have heard of people who stucked huge amounts of money in a room and even in underground buildings and dies and when these money were found it has already rot in there. How can someone keep Money without investing it on meaningful assets that can be passed from one generation to another.

There is different between the whales and the ordinary investors because while the lower investors are still struggling to build their portfolio, the whales already has huge stash which even if they decide to sell it won't still affect their holdings. However it will be unwise if someone decides to sell part of their Bitcoin holdings just to acquire a liability in form of assets just because you want to feel luxury or you want to live a larvish lifestyle. If someone who have huge amount of Bitcoins decides to sell part of their holdings and invest in more valuable asset it is considerable instead of selling to acquire luxury things that are not bringing anything to you

You would be surprised about how many old people prefer to die with a lot of money in the bank and under their pillow instead of buying watches, cars or go on a cruise. Many of them own a house or two because they prefer to be independent. But the main reason is what once you reached a target you worked towards for many years because you always thought you want pure luxury all day long, there is something going on with many people that keeps them from sending their money without thorough consideration.

I believe that bitcoin is such an asset. Sure if you are a whale and you are sitting on a bag of 30,000 BTC like Tim Draper, selling some wouldn't hurt you, but often times even these people keep this asset. Draper bought at just over $600 and still holds 29,600 BTC. Why? Why wouldn't someone who bought for a little less $18 million not sell for $18 billion? It's a question someone should ask themselves before they consider getting rid of their holdings because they feel like buying a new car.

Of course, you can do both.

Yet, the mere fact that you can do both does not mean that you need to do both or that it would be preferable to do both. 

Each person has to decide regarding the extent to which one approach might be better than another in the context of his own circumstances.


There is nothing wrong with thinking about a formula for yourself, even though some newbies may end up better reversing those numbers or to have all or almost all dedicated to DCA buying and little to none dedicated to buying dips, especially as some members already mentioned that they are going to be buying dips and non-dips through DCA,and also that there is no real way to know whether more dip is coming or not, yet surely any person could have some kind of a regular buying of $100 per week and then after becoming concerned that there might be more dip, convert over to buying $70 each week and holding the remaining $30 to buy on dips and perhaps set some kind of dip parameters, and if the dip parameters are somewhat restrictive (or at least not getting triggered), then perhaps after 10 weeks, $300 might end up building up, so even the amount of money building up (for the purpose of buying the dip), could end up contributing to some needs to reconsider how to allocate the money... and yes, individual choices.. including that the person might also receive some kind of an unexpected bonus (let's say $1,000), so then might need to consider how to allocate that money in terms of buying the dip money, DCA allocating or perhaps buying right away with some or all of it, and so sometimes receiving some kind of unexpected amount of extra cash (or discretionary income) can provide a lot of relief due to providing additional options regarding how to treat such extra cash that came into the picture.


If you have money available to buy at that price, sure.. no problem, yet it can be problematic to hold very much value out of anticipation of such potential dip prices that might not end up playing out.

By the way, I surely don't know if I am very likely to be correct or not, yet for several months, maybe half a year or more, I have been suggesting that I would be willing to bet that the BTC spot price does not go any lower than 20% above the 200-WMA until the end of 2025, so that means that I have been anticipating that the odds are less than 50/50, and that is  why I am willing to make such bet - yet at the same time, having bets with something in the ballpark of 50/50 odds is not really expressing a whole hell of a lot of confidence, yet maybe at least enough confidence to enter in the bet with an expectation that the odds of winning are greater than the odds of losing... so yeah, in recent times, the 200-WMA has been moving up between around $30 to $45 per day, and currently in the lower end of that range, yet surely as the BTC price goes up then the amount that the 200-WMA moves up per day will likely also move up.. and right now, BTC spot price is right around 52% higher than the 200-WMA.  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy.


I don't have any problem with folks trying to figure out some kind of a target amount that they are going to invest and/or save, and I recall that even when I was young, I would try to target something like 10% or more of my gross income to invest and/or save.

Of course, as you mentioned, there is a bit of devil in the details, and we should attempt to use the correct language, which is that no one should be investing more than their discretionary income, which truly some people have higher levels of discretionary income than others, yet sometimes we can also increase our discretionary income by increasing our income and/or cutting our expenses.  So we an assess how much of our discretionary income is part of our gross income, yet we can also assess how aggressive we are going to be in terms of our use of our discretionary income for investing/savings rather than for consumption.  There is no one correct formula, yet those who are more aggressive in regards to the amount of their discretionary income they invest into bitcoin are likely going to progress more greatly in their bitcoin investment, yet they might end up sacrificing other areas of their personal life, so they likely need to find some kind of a reasonable balance... that also allows them to feel that they are making reasonable progress in their bitcoin accumulation journey.

It may be true that if you are in that situation you will make two decisions, the first is to get luxury goods/houses or everything that you have dreamed of for years, and the second decision is that you will think wisely about the bitcoin investment that has been built from a long time ago. Yes, my answer is maybe if we have achieved the desire to have a luxury home and at that time all your wealth that you have in BTC. If it happened to me, maybe I would only sell some BTC and the others I would keep for years to come.

The reality is someone who has fallen in love with Bitcoin of course will not leave BTC in the investment that he will make. So at this point we can rebuild our BTC portfolio by accumulating every week because we only sell some BTC just to satisfy ourselves with our dream of having a luxury home.

This often happens to the wider community where they change their lifestyle when they have reached the level of wealth that they have built from the investments they have made. I remember one word, fulfill your dream when you are able to achieve it. Yes, that is a common thing and we remain in our position to have BTC and also have a luxury home. Just sell some of it and buy it back through DCA, of course, slowly you will have the BTC back like before you sold it.

I think you couldn't be more accurate here. I would add though that it might a question of needs and opportunities. If you reached the accumulation target for BTC and the price is amazing (whatever that means) and in the neighborhood out of a sudden there is this once in a lifetime opportunity to buy that house that you ever dreamt of, then maybe it is also a question of satisfaction that can become decisive. Now if that means I am forced to sell off everything in BTC and then top of that take a mortgage to get it financed, I should probably think twice (unless I have some deadly disease and want to live in a dream place for a short time...).

It's true that people can have a target without actually intending to sell by then. Regarding the price, the truth is that we are still so early days that I think nobody can reasonably estimate where BTC will end up or peak for a long time. I will be honest and say it could be anything. If governments start racing for accumulation because they once and for all understood that bitcoin has geopolitical relevance, well, how much does there even remain for us normal human beings? And this is not an unrealistic scenario. It's probably already happening for sure apart from El Salvador.

I just remember people saying that BTC will never reach 1,000 USD, then they said it will never reach 10,000 USD, then they doubled that number, then institutions started to announce that bitcoin could change the world, then governments were involved in various ways like selling seized BTC, which actually legitimates it because governments can't prohibit something that they sell themselves.

So many details to consider here. I am curious to see where this is heading in the next 5 - 10 years. It doesn't mean we won't see crashes. For sure there will be crashes as with any asset that is subject to herd behavior, but bitcoin is very often fought back in the recent past when some experts announced that there will be a black swan event.