Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 100. (Read 129979 times)

Accumulating Bitcoin when it is dip is not wrong for it gives an investor more opportunities to accumulate enough Bitcoin but always waiting for the dip before accumulating Bitcoin is a wrong strategy for it will make an investor not to accumulate more Bitcoin because such investor always wait for the dip, the dip should be an opportunity to buy more Bitcoin instead the DCA strategy is recommendable for it make you to accumulate Bitcoin either weekly or monthly regardless of the price and hodl for long.

It seems that I was making a different point than you.  I think that my initial question was whether you were regretting not buying in August/September/October 2023 during such time that you were stating that you were expecting more down (and BTC's spot price was below the 200-WMA for much of that time too... prior to the late October rise from $26k/$27k to its March 2024 ATH of $73,794.

I suppose that it bears repeating that I surely don't have any problem with the idea of potentially buying more when the BTC price is at near or below the 200-WMA, and those kinds of strategical buying could potentially play more for folks who had already been in BTC for a while, so they have presumptively accumulated decent amounts of BTC.

For the newbie investor, it may well not matter so much exactly where the BTC price is, at least for maybe a whole cycle or maybe even a cycle and a half or longer - depending on how much BTC s/he had been able to accumulate in light of his/her annual expenses and/or standard of living.  Of course, when a newbie investor starts to build into a more regular investor and perhaps has build his/her BTC portfolio to such a size that it is more than a year's expenses, and maybe even 2-3 years of expenses, s/he is going to have more liberty (or perhaps justification) to change his/her BTC accumulation strategy to perhaps become more discerning in regards to the price and even perhaps consider whether to diversify out his/her investment portfolio into other assets (not necessarily referring to shitcoins, but maybe to equities, properties, businesses, commodities, bonds, cash/cash equivalents).   

There is no exact correct path, even though there are probably some preferred practices, including that I think that newbies likely are going to be way better off to just be spending a lot of time just strictly accumulating BTC through DCA for 4-6 years or more rather than getting caught up in regards to trying to figure out BTC price moves and the extent to which dips are going to happen or going to dip further or not. 

By the way, in August, September, October 2023, the BTC price spent much of that time $25k-ish to $27k-ish.. which would have had been between 0% and 10% below the 200-WMA, since in the middle of September 2023, the 200-WMA was right around $27.7k. Instead of advocating buying, you were advocating buying the dip, and that is part of the point that I was attempting to make.  BTC prices were already low and already below the 200-WMA, and you were suggesting people wait for more including suggesting that there were decently good odds that lower $20ks would be revisited, so in that sense you were not buying nor advocating for buying but were advocating for waiting... which you yourself said that you were doing during that time...

and the reason that you were doing it was because you were poor.. that was the dumb and inadequate reason that you gave about wanting to get more bang for the buck.. blah blah blah.. which results in greed that was not justified and did not play out well for anyone who did not have many coins or were low coiners at the time, and it may well did not even work well for you, even though you have had much longer time accumulating bitcoin, but still you like to employ waiting strategies rather than ongoing buying strategies, and I question whether your ongoing desires to employ waiting strategies has even served you as well as an ongoing buying strategy could have had served you better.

In the end, of course, you are free to do whatever you like, to advocate whatever you like, including advocating waiting and buying on dips, and others here may well not agree with such strategies, especially for newbies who are still in the earliest of stages of building their BTC stash, which may well even last more than a whole cycle to really build their BTC stash to a meaningful amount that might justify their modifying their BTC accumulation approach to some other less regular kinds of accumulation, such as buying on dips or other waiting rather than ongoing buying strategies.


I consider the period between June 2022 and October 2023 to have had been mostly below the 200-WMA, even though sure there was a period between about April and July 2023 in which the BTC price went above the 200-WMA, but even then the BTC price still stayed pretty close to the 200-WMA for that whole period of time.

As for me, I am in a bit of a different position as compared to most other people, since we likely should be considering that way more guys here are way more in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation, as compared to where I am at (since I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014.. but still continued accumulating in 2015 and 2016). 

And, guys can ONLY be so aggressive when they are newbies anyhow.  They can invest 100% of their discretionary income, as long as they don't make any mistakes with it and otherwise have other good cashflow management practices in place that includes maintaining back up funds... yet they could get themselves into trouble if they start to employ leverage merely based on their recognizing BTC prices to be in historically low price territories.

You seem to want to suggest that there would have had been some kind of waiting to get into bitcoin that might have had taken place, so that between June 2022 and October 2023 (you say March 2023), they would then deploy all of the fiat that they had been holding back in order to invest in BTC during that time, but then you were still suggesting to be waiting presumably for lower $20ks between August and October 2023.. which sure, maybe you had already backed the trucks up and loaded up between June 2022 and March 2023, which might work o.k. for someone who already accumulated BTC, but it was not really any kind of a good strategy for anyone just starting out in BTC during that time.  Sure, anyone getting into bitcoin during June 2022 and October 2023 would have had been better off to have had started out BIG during that time, even though surely a decent amount of that time had a lot of negative ideas in the air about bitcoin.

My own personal system in 2022 involved buying on the way down from the mid $60ks until about $35k or so, and then when the BTC price dropped below $35k in early May 2023, i realized that we were no longer in a bull market, so I spent some time rearranging some of my buy orders between $30k and $20k to allow them to go lower than they had previously been set, and so then by the time we got to June 2022-ish, most of those buy orders had been filled, and so I was largely running out of money to buy more, especially below $20k, so I had to regroup again and even to start to figure out new sources to inject more cash and to start to employ a kind of DCA strategy during those sub $20k times, and I did not have a lot of money to work with.. so there surely can be a bit of difficulty to run out of money as the BTC prices drop and continue to drop, and you are going to suggest that guys go all in during those kinds of times, when no one has any money, but you are going to suggest that the correct strategy would have had been to make sure to hold back money to be able to buy below $20k, and really the 200-WMA was round $22k at that time, so many folks who had money had been spending (buying) on the way down, so there weren't very many folks who still had money to keep buying on the way down, but for some reason, you are smarter than everyone else and you have money to continue to buy when others don't?

I don't know why you prefer to buy at the dip when you know that buying at the dip is not the best strategy for a new investor who has just started his bitcoin journey or who is yet to start because it will make them become low coiners after a very long time since nobody knows if the dip may come or not. It is better that a new investor who has figured out how much he wants to use to invest in bitcoin from his discretionary income starts right away with DCA method so that he can keep buying regularly weekly or monthly consistently and persistently for 4-10 years and above, instead of waiting for the dip.

Buying at the dip is always by luck and for those investors that their bitcoin portfolio has reached a certain level amd have prepared for the dip. A new investor whose DCA is ongoing will also benefit from the dip when it comes because he will also buy at the dip price. Waiting for the dip is not a healthy practice and is not ideal for beginners because they will lose many opportunities in the market to increase their bitcoin portfolio fast.

Investing in bitcoin doesn’t mean you won't set aside money for other purposes outside bitcoin investment, being focused on investing is the goal and since it’s a long term investment there is always room to keep accumulating either by waiting for dips or DCAing, doing this doesn’t mean you can’t live a normal life and take care of yourself.

Reserved funds are different from investment funds and they are mainly used to cover unexpected expenses and unforeseen costs at emergency times so we don’t have to refer back to our investment and take money from there. Reserved funds are as important to help maintain our investment plan and I think they should be separated from investment funds that way it will be easy to manage them both.

I think we should be talking about buying the dip, hodling and how to improve our investment and not try to deviate from the main title, Although it’s good for beginners to know that knowledge is key to successful investment. I believe most people here are aware of that already and we should rather share information about how to manage our funds and keep investing in more dips or any investment strategy you adopt. Any bitcoin investment that is not well planned and has no aim will is likely to fail at some point or the investor may be forced to quit due to market volatility that’s why every investment should be well planned.

Any investor that lump sum and the price of bitcoin dips and the investor is worried an out the dip, he should not bother to lump sum again but use the DCA strategy. This is the reason why a new investor should not use lump sum to start his bitcoin journey if he doesn't have plans of regular DCA weekly or monthly buying constantly for a long time, because if he lump sum only ans price dips and remain there for long, the new investor might be discouraged because his bitcoin portfolio has depreciated in value.

DCA is very good to start your bitcoin investment as a new investor because you are buying bitcoin always irrespective of bitcoin price and when there is a dip, you are also taking advantage of the dip to buy more Bitcoin since your DCA is ongoing, instead of getting worried of the dip because he only lump sum. With that the new investor will not get worried because he is determined to keep acquiring more bitcoin overtime and stay focus on his bitcoin target. If he has extra cash, he can lump sum if he wishes to.

I agree with you @ Zacks5000, because it is Bitcoin we are talking about and not any other coins, waiting to have or gain much knowledge before getting started might lead to procrastination and at such many may end up not investing in Bitcoin, the logic should be get the basic knowledge and have that personal conviction that Bitcoin is a coin that worth investing, get the fucking started and figure out other things along the line, the DCA strategy has got it all as to this regards because it gives the opportunity of learning about the dynamics while already in it, mistakes can be made and corrections can as well be taken, most times getting experience becomes the best teacher, one can not really get much the of the knowledge by just sitting around the corner, prioritize your basic needs and investment within your available disposable income readily available for investment, think Bitcoin investment and think long term plans, these are essentials that can facilitate making an informed Bitcoin investment decisions.

Understanding is the right application of the knowledge one have, so one don't only need knowledge to be successful in any business but rather understanding. There are alot of  people who has knowledge about a particular thing but they don't understand how it works. Moreover not every project or business requires total knowledge before one can be able to venture into and no matter the knowledge one acquired it can never be enough or sufficient for example those who called themselves expert traders they still incur loss despite their degree of expertise even in Bitcoin investment, one can't know everything because the more you grow the more insights you have so why waiting to be grounded before venturing into it but it is advise or encourage you have basic knowledge before investing because that basic knowledge (foundation) is what will guide you sometimes.

Why with those random dates?

I said June 2022 to March 2023 - those days/weeks/months when Bitcoin was actually spending most of its time BELOW the 200-Weekly-SMA.


It was probably significant for you, but what was actually significant for buy the DIP investors were the months from June 2022 to March 2023. Those months were obviously THE Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP, and HODL for the current cycle.

Also know that, you can’t force yourself to be in a position of getting opportunity always and not utilizing them. The market will never make you know when it’ll fall in price or a big dip will happen for you to DCA and add to your portfolio. If you’ve already done your lump sum and you can’t afford to set aside another budget to continue DCA anytime an opportunity arise, don’t feel sad or be bothered. The value of your bitcoin at that time will be the same and what you’re looking for is the long term prospects of it, so the dips and fall in price shouldn’t bother you that much after you’ve done your investment using the lump sum strategy. You should also think that, what if the opportunity to buy low never came and the price you brought from was never tested again by the market? So they’re possibilities to this that we can’t control them, you just have to accept the facts of it the way it is.

In adjusting the investment journey, of course, many supporting factors are needed, both strategy, strong mentality and also our focus on buying Bitcoin. Regardless of how you respond to it, of course, for now DCA is a strategy that is better understood by beginners or those on the accumulation journey.
So how you interpret DCA will not have a big impact on our optimism in running investments, Isn't an increase in BTC ownership that we execute routinely going to grow our optimism about the investments we make.

Should DCA be juxtaposed with price volatility, while DCA is a strategy that does not look at the price when we execute it. DCA is not a backup strategy but the main strategy that we have implemented so far, if you want to switch strategies on your investment journey I think you have to think more clearly so as not to interfere with the investment you are making.

If DCA is run properly I think we will not miss or ignore any opportunities. But for you I don't know how you interpret DCA and run it in an investment for the long term.

Gaining full knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mater when it comes to Bitcoin investment when decide to keep on waiting to gain more knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin might be too dangerous the most important thing is to get started and when you are already in it then you will start knowing more or have more knowledge how Bitcoin investment works.

The best is to get started because the more you keep on waiting to gain knowledge before Investing into Bitcoin the more you miss the chances of accumulating more Bitcoin.

Seriously, if someone wants to be successful in whatever they are doing, they really need knowledge because knowledge is the key factor for anything they want to do, whether it is business or investment. So, it will be better for anyone to seek for knowledge before investing in Bitcoin, so they will know the right direction to follow. Some people lose their Bitcoin investments to scammers, not because of anything else, but just because they don't have the knowledge. Therefore, it is very important that we try to gain this knowledge before investing in Bitcoin.At the very least, we should try to have the basic knowledge before starting to invest in Bitcoin, and from there, we can begin asking for more knowledge to provide strong security for our investment.

Yeah knowledge play a vital role when it comes to bitcoin investment Still, but the main thing is how one use that knowledge or how that knowledge has made impact to one bitcoin accumulation, there still alot of folks despite how they have acquired alot of knowledge on how bitcoin work but still they can't use those knowledge to secure a better bitcoin investment. Like have seen the impact on my bitcoin investment due to the knowledge have gotten from this forum especially from this thread when it comes to long-term investment.

Well to be frank before one can start his bitcoin accumulation journey he or she needs to have the basic knowledge on how bitcoin work because no one can just woke and start buying bitcoin, nahhh doesn't work that way at first they have to learn how to purchase bitcoin by themselves through exchanges.  And don't forget as one is accumulating one should also  focus on gathering knowledge on how bitcoin works as an digital assets, and also as an investment ( hope you know that  bitcoin is  one of the best investments  )

Yes, it is always important for people to have a good knowledge of the investment they want to start so that they can know how to handle the investment and become successful with it, but when it comes to bitcoin investment, newbies or new investors don't necessarily need to gain any bitcoin knowledge before they can start investing their money into bitcoin. What newbies or new investors should be concerned about in bitcoin investment is their finances to know if or not they have a discretionary fund that will allow them to invest in bitcoin. As time goes on, they can start learning about bitcoin.

Basically DCA is just an investment strategy, while this strategy will most likely not have a big impact on your optimism about the future of bitcoin. There are many investors who are optimistic about the future of bitcoin, but they have different strategies, not just DCA. For me, that's not a problem, the most important thing is that they try to make Bitcoin an investment, whatever strategy they use.

DCA is very useful for those of you who want to take advantage of price volatility to carry out accumulation. Even though you can buy all at once at a certain price, DCA can be considered as a backup strategy if the price falls further than the previous purchase. If you don't set aside a budget, then perhaps you are ignoring the opportunity.

Sure we could use August 2023 or even a year ago, yet what is significant about October 2023 is that there were quite a few people (including you) who were expecting and cheering for down and saying that you could not buy BTC because you were waiting for more down.. Yet, in October 2023, the BTC market turned and the price pretty much shot up from $26k/$27k-ish and went all the way up to $73k in March 2024.. so yeah, a lot of the folk, probably including yourself got left out on that stepladder .. and we likely are not going back down anywhere close to those kind of prices. 

And, your waiting strategy and fucking around with holding BTC hoping for more down before up may well end up with similar kinds of results in current prices.

Maybe that works for you, yet I even have my doubts if your waiting strategy has been working for you, and hopefully not too many newbies, or even guys in their first cycle of BTC accumulating are following such a waiting strategy rather than just figuring out ways to ongoingly, persistently and consistently buy within their budget, and maybe after they make it through a whole cycle or cycle and a half, then maybe at that point they can reassess whether they might need to (or want to) adapt their BTC accumulation strategy to incorporate buying on dips (and possible waiting) rather than mostly focusing on ongoing BTC accumulation that does not incorporate waiting strategies that might cause them to end up buying less BTC than what they would have had otherwise.


Sure.  I suppose that we don't really disagree, except that I am suggesting that you are stating the matter in a bit of a strange/confusing way.  I already stated my point in which looking at discretionary income is more important, even though surely there can be some overall target too.. that involves 5% or 10% of the overall income or something like that.. and I recall when I was younger (much before getting into bitcoin) I had almost always shot for saving/investing 10% of my income, so that I would make sure that I adapted my expenses to that I would ongoingly be able to do that, even when I had low levels of income. and surely sometimes these kinds of things can be difficult to accomplish, especially if someone might have a family to support or even expenses for personal training (such as some kind of schooling), yet when push comes to shove, we may well try to figure out how to have formulas for measuring both.. measuring within the overall income that is coming in and also measuring within the discretionary income in order that we can attempt to have better assessments in regards to what we might be trying  to accomplish with the categories of income and expenses that we might have, and sometimes we might not even realize that some of our expenses are discretionary too... so then there can be internal dilemmas in terms of our attempting to figure out our priories in regards to some of our expenses as they might contrast and conflict with our desires to save/invest, too.


Of course emergency funds and reserve funds are variations of the same thing, and some people overlap in what they call them or how they classify their funds.  One of the benefits of differentiating between emergency funds and reserve funds, is that there may be some reserve funds (that fit within the category of emergency funds) that are not going to be touched except under very dire circumstances of losing income or having some non-discretionary expense that rise to the level of going beyond our regular expenses - yet such expense fit in a category that they cannot be deferred.

If some folks think that they need 3-6 months of emergency funds yet that they can dip into their emergency funds for non emergencies, yet if they choose to not dip into the emergency funds once the go below 3 months of expenses (absent an actual emergency), then perhaps they are ONLY treating 3 months as an actual emergency fund and the amount excess of 3 months is being treated as reserve funds.

That might not actually be true, because there are many people who don't buy with DCA, yet they have enough knowledge about the future of bitcoin. Because according to your assumption, you are trying to say they people who buy with other methods don't understand the potential of bitcoin. DCA method has nothing to do with understanding the potential of bitcoin. Because even newbies who were influence by others to invest in bitcoin do buy bitcoin with DCA method. Even though they don't really know  or have enough knowledge about the true potentials of bitcoin at that initial stage. DCA, just like every other methods is applicable by all sets of investors, both those that understands the potentials of bitcoin and those that don't, but they just have to invest because they see others investing in it. While some where influenced by others either at home or in the office.

Those are the characteristics of newbies, and we can't blame them for displaying their attributes of being a newbie. But those of them who manages to pass that stage without falling for those newbies temptations, with time will now understand that it is wrong to sell off when there is a market correction. With their continuous investing and hodling of bitcoin they will gather enough knowledge, and move from having zero or shallow knowledge, to having deep knowledge of bitcoin.

I know reserved funds are very important in Bitcoin investment, but as a beginner who just wants to start investing in Bitcoin, I don't think that he or she has to have reserved funds before they can start accumulating Bitcoin. If they start looking for reserve funds first, when will they actually begin investing? That can even discourage them. I think the best way is for them to start investing in Bitcoin first before thinking of reserve funds. What is necessary is to always invest what you can afford to lose, and by using the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) method.I believe that with this method, they may already have some funds set aside because the DCA method helps ensure that someone is less likely to remain completely without funds. In case of any emergency, they can easily handle it. I think that as long as someone is investing what they can afford to lose, it will be unlikely that an emergency will force them to touch their Bitcoin investment. This is because they will only be investing a small portion of their salary, which means they will still have enough in their bank account.

It is difficult for beginners to start keeping reserve funds as they do not know much about the importance. In most cases these beginners do not see the need to have reserve funds since they believe that they may have been backward in accumulating Bitcoin, the need to rush and accumulate a promising amount of Bitcoin in their portfolio is what they are after. So whatever funds they have for investment they tend to push it all into Bitcoin.

The mistake they dont know is the reserve funds acts a safety net for Bitcoin investors whether thy are beginners or experienced investors.

Of course, emergency funds is the most important for one to be able to build and hodli his bitcoin investment for a very long time of his desire in as much as he is using only part of his discretionary income to buy bitcoin regularly either weekly or monthly overtime.

One thing that I understand is that reserve funds is also important to some people who will love to take advantage of the dip to increase their bitcoin portfolio faster. If a new investor that just started his bitcoin journey without emergency funds, he can use one part of his discretionary income start investing in bitcoin using DCA method buying every week  consistently, and at the same time he can use the other part of his discretionary income to build his emergency funds for 3 months simultaneously with his bitcoin investment.

When he has gradually built his emergency funds up to three months, he can then channel that money that he was using to build his emergency funds to start building his reserve funds, and when he has achieved his reserve funds. He can start DCAing aggressively but not overdoing it so that he can cover up those period he was building his back up funds. Reserve funds is a back up to emergency funds just like the way your emergency funds is a back up to your bitcoin investment.