Although basically every individual has freedom in terms of Bitcoin accumulation and it does not rule out the possibility for them to do an aggressive way like you said with such an amount, but in my opinion it is not a good accumulation if they do a way that can suppress (force) them in terms of their finances, even though their goal is quite good to master 1 Bitcoin, but honestly I would not really recommend this method to anyone unless indeed if you are one of the conglomerates who have an income far above average and with a DCA of $100 a week is not at all burdensome and does not interfere with your basic needs then go ahead. But in my opinion on the other hand this is still not a good alternative, because obviously if we look in terms of time then it will still take a lot of time for you to achieve success to reach 1 Bitcoin, and also on the other hand time will continue to run, meaning that as long as you do this method it is very likely that there will be changes in the price of Bitcoin, if bearish dominates when you do this method until completion then it is a little profitable, But if Bitcoin is rising due to factors such as halving, it is likely that the amount of money you have to allocate will increase and with that means that in terms of time it will also definitely be longer if you put a flat amount ($100) on each DCA you do.
There must be a good strategy in this case even though the goal may be very good to do but when the method only makes ourselves difficult in the end this can hinder the pace of DCA done.
$100 per week will indeed provide greater benefits because what we invest is very large but on the other hand it goes back to the initial problem of whether we can do it consistently for a long period of time? If in the end you can do that and with the support of the benefits you have from the salary you receive every month to be able to invest $100 / week and be able to cover other needs for daily life, it is indeed very good but if we have a modest income and investing $100 / week is draining your cash I don't think it's worth it even though your desire to get 1 btc is very good but in the end when impulsive methods like this are done, this will destroy your desire to get 1 btc because of your difficulty in managing your finances because you are too pushing yourself for the goals you want to achieve.
Keep in mind this is an investment for the long term so when you force from the start with a big start then when you have problems in the purchase made because it is too burdensome then this is precisely what becomes a problem so that the investment that is carried out does not go well.
Of course, sometimes we want to try to speak in terms of specific numbers, such as $100 per week or maybe $10 per week in order to give some level of concreteness to our discussions, and many normies are going to fit within a range in which they are able to afford somewhere between $10 and $100 per week, but if we really start to get into cash management, we might also need to get into discussing reasonable targets, and frequently it seems to me that something like 10% is a fairly reasonable starting point to discuss as a target for someone to save/invest... but of course, it is best that we establish that even the 10% is not going to end up jeopardize anyone on terms of their being able to make sure that they cover their ongoing monthly expenses, account for irregularities that they might have in their cashflow, and even the importance of maintaining some kind of an emergency fund, especially if they are going to end up getting aggressive with their investing/savings amount.
That can't work all the time although it's the best ever, sometimes the price of bitcoin just continues to go up and you have the funds to buy, DCA can help you in that so you don't end up having to wait for months or years and that money stagnating from inflation. We can't predict the market so it's for the best that we adapt our strategies or just make more money in our jobs and save more extra money so we always have money when the price of bitcoin is low.
The questions about the rise and fall nature of the decentralized
digital currencies have raised a lot of eyebrows to interested people who want to venture into Bitcoin but do not have enough information at hand. Sometimes it is not just about searching online because you may not necessarily have the in depth or hands-on information you're looking for. So, therefore, it is key that we enlighten ourselves more about what it takes to patronize the
digital currency and by extention invest in it.
It sounds like you are trying to be too smart for your own good, iBaba. Why do you need to use the term digital currencies?"
Why not just use the term bitcoin? especially since this thread is about bitcoin.
Another thing... Do you believe that the various presumptions that we are talking about in this thread applies to shitcoins? Anything other than bitcoin? I have my doubts, but even if you might be able to make such arguments it would be off topic for this thread.. so that gets us back to why not just say bitcoin rather than trying to sound smart and suggest that these ideas apply to "digital currencies" when they likely do not. because any other coin, besides bitcoin has a burden prove that it is not a shitcoin, which surely there is none of them that I understand to even be close to meeting such burden.. so we cannot presume any of them to be a good long term investment.. so why make any such comparison? unless you don't know what the fuck you are talking about and your brain in jumbled in terms of understanding how bitcoin is different from shitcoins.
DCA remains the best option for long-term growth investors who have meager resources at hand but are always ready to take advantage of the market trend. It is like an investment plan options that have been roled out to a potential investor who's knocking on the door for investment.
Don't know if this example helps but it's a case of whether he or she is an angel investor who's putting in their own funds with the expectations of making profits by taking advantage of the market, he can use the DCA approach OR if the investor is a venture capitalist who's investing more money into the coin, then the investor will want to wait for the Lump Sum to make profits.
I doubt that this is a very good example. A lot of the venture capitalists pump and dump shitcoins, so you seem to not really be referring to bitcoin but instead some other kinds of ideas that are not really that great for common folks who are trying to get away from scams and into sound money, such as bitcoin. If you are trying to follow or figure out what various venture capitalists are doing, you are likely wasting brain power chasing around whatever might be the latest pump and dump that they are hyping, and even though a lot of people talk positively about bitcoin, bitcoin does not have marketing teams in the same kinds of ways that shitcoins and venture capitalists might pump their baloney so that they can dump on retail at some opportune time that maybe ONLY they know about it or that they got into whatever bullshit that they are pumping way before the make various efforts (and perhaps create campaigns) to pump their crap.
When it doesn’t hit the target you set for it due to the volatile nature of the market and the bull market already over, it is good to sell them off and get the profit already accumulated. Waiting for the bull run to come when it seems unlikely to come at that time again is just like gambling and if you gamble your money, you’ll end up losing more money and get little or no profit for all the wait over the years.
If you say that selling when you have reached your bitcoin target is the best and you don't need to gamble by keeping it, is wrong because it shows that you don't know the worth of bitcoin investment and when you sell off all your investment in the nearest future you will become broke, since you don't have the investment anymore to generate profit. An investment should be seen as something that generate produt in a long term i.e till infinity. If you sell all your bitcoin, you will not reach the fuck you level status.
Imagine that you own a company and have taken time to grow this company for let's say 8yrs and the company is giving you good returns but you haven't touched a dime from the profit. If The company at a point total worth is $1m, and your dream money to have for you to know that you have arrived is $1m, will you now sell the company out to someone else for $1m because that was your price target...you will get broke again and it will be difficult to build such company from a start and achieve same worth in a very long time because of inflation and some unforeseen challenges. The best thing is to allow the profit to compound and take profit leaving the company to still worth the $1m because it is an investment that has flourished already and it will continue to bring profit. This is sane with bitcoin investment.
I am pretty sure that I like your example of building a company up to $1 million versus building bitcoin up to $1 million, and the reason that I like it is different from yours Ruttoshi. You believe bitcoin is the same kind of an investment as a company, and surely it is not, unless you happen to be an investor in the company and you do not have to do any work, then maybe if you are merely an investment, and then your investment comes to be worth $1million, then the business would be similar to bitcoin, except still, you have to be confident in the fundamentals of the company in terms of the management and the direction and the fact they may well still be able to perform, and if you cannot get those kinds of assurances, it makes more sense to take your money out of the business..
On the other hand, bitcoin remains a different kind of investment in that it is a kind of money protocol, but not ONLY that, bitcoin is a paradigm shifting technology that is likely still under 1% of world-wide adoption, so there is not any kind of similar third party risk when it comes to bitcoin as compared to a $million company.
In fact, if you had a company that you worked your ass off to build up to a place where you are able to sell it and walk away with $1 million, then maybe it may well be smart to take that $1 million and put it into bitcoin, and sure that might well bring up other questions regarding how to enter, lump sum, buying on dips and/or DCA... and sure the default mode might be to divide the $million into 3 parts of $333,333, but of course, you can do whatever you believe is workable and reasonable in that regard.
It is not 100% guarantee that bitcoin price will give huge profit in some timeline but the odds of having good profit us higher and this is why, when you have reached your bitcoin target, that is when you can now be relaxed with your accumulation consistently and maintain your bitcoin portfolio by buying once in a while or quarterly DCA. Then when bitcoin price reaches a new ATH, you can sell like 10% and leave the rest to continue increasing it once in a while or whatever strategy that is cool with you just to make sure that the investment is increasing in size or you can then diversify into gold, stock, bond or real estate.
There's nothing wrong with those ideas, but I find it problematic to use the previous ATH as your reference point in terms of when you might sell because it makes it sound like you are ONLY thinking about bitcoin price instead of other factors that might also concern your own situation.. so there are likely ways to work out formulas for selling small parts of bitcoin as the BTC price rises at various points and either completely take those profits off the table or to take some of them off the table and keep other parts on the side to potentially use for buying on dips (but if the BTC price doesn't dip then at some point then even the second portion that you had kept in reserve for buying back might end up coming available to you for the purposes of spending or investing in other assets.
Another problematic aspect in regards to considering selling at the old ATH is that the ATH arena tends to get passed through fairly quickly, so I am currently considering that from about $55k to $85k is a kind of no man's zone, which just means that the BTC price is likely to pass through quickly, but still there are no guarantees, so if you feel anxious to sell some coins, then feel free to do it, but you might be regretting if the BTC price passes through to the upside and never returns or even if it does return, it might be a while down the road..
In my own personal system, I hardly make any changes at all in terms of if we are in no man's zone or not.. maybe minor changes.. and so I continue to sell in small increments on the way up, and so yeah some of the problem sometimes can be that too much fiat ends up stacking up and there sometimes can be some regrets about selling too much too soon... so sometimes in order to be less regretful, I might tweak my sell order sizes to be smaller or maybe I will make my sell spreads larger... but the main reason that I feel that I am even able to do this is that largely I had reached my BTC accumulation targets in 2014/2015, so I had over accumulated BTC and I had never really sold that many of them, so I really have maintained myself into a status of being overallocated in bitcoin, which is part of my justification of being able to sell at pretty much any BTC price but I generally tend to restrict myself to selling on the way up and buying on the way down, but the amounts that I continue to sell remain so relatively small that they are not really a large constitution of my overall BTC investment, while at the same time, even with relatively small sell orders, if the BTC price goes up 2x or 4x and really does not have too many meaningful corrections, it can start to seem like I have way too much cash... but how could that be, if the reality of the matter is that my cash does not even tend to get to more than 5% of my overall size of my BTC stash, even when the BTC price is moving up a lot.. so in the whole scheme of things when looking at the whole size of my BTC holdings, having too much cash has not really tended to be much of a problem for me, even though sometimes it can feel like it when I don't really have any place lined up to spend any of it, and sometimes, I just have to make things up for myself to find things to spend on, just to have some excuses to spend more.
What matters in one's life is steady growth no matter how well your investment is flourishing, you must still make sure that you are increasing it so that you can get to a level that you will never get broke because your investments are working for you.
If you end up holding more in bitcoin as compared to your other assets, then there will likely be periods in which your networth is going down to be 50%, or 70% or more .. less than what you had been worth previously... let me see if I can give you an example.
Let's say that a guy got into bitcoin around 10 years ago, and he had an overall investment portfolio of around $100k, and so his first several years getting into bitcoin, he tried to invest around 10% into bitcoin, but he ends up investing around 15% into bitcoin over two to 3 years, and so he makes several mistakes along the way, and ends up getting about 21 BTC for around $1k each (a $21k investment)... so over the next 10 years, his traditional portfolio grew from $100k to be about $200k (it largely doubled), yet his BTC holdings went from $21k to $1.45 million at the $69k top in November 2021, and currently about $765k ($36,500). so his BTC investment is currently nearly 4x the size of his other investments, even though it had gone up to $1.45 million at the top (which would have been around 7x the size of his other assets), but it also shrunk down to $325k (when we were at the $15,479 bottom in November 2022).. which would have had ONLY have had been about 1.625x of his other assets, but even at the $15,479 bottom still in good profits of around 15.5x since his average cost per BTC had only been around $1k per BTC. None the less, since a lot of the networth is held in such a volatile asset like bitcoin, the trajectory of his networth is not straight up.. but fluctuates and still is generally tending up but not always feeling like it is going up as much as it maybe should.
Ups and Downs is a common image of a trading platform. You must develop a risk appetite before investing. The interesting thing here is that some are looking for a dip in Bitcoin while many are expecting bullish ones. As a Bitcoin investor I would certainly welcome the dip as I would not pass up an opportunity to buy at a low price to save my Bitcoins for the long term. I will take every dip as an opportunity and try to hold it as best I can. But since I follow DCA these dips and highs don't affect me much. I know the market will be bearish again and bitcoin will lose its value but my bitcoin holdings will not decrease but i get the dips it will increase my wealth in the future.
Well, that's true, every increase there must be a decrease and every decrease there must be an increase, as we have seen today where at the end of last year BTC fell to $15k and today Bitcoin is trading at $35k.
You sound mixed up ginsan. If the there were always a decrease for every increase in bitcoin, then we would never have gotten above $1 per BTC.
In other words, in the short term it may well be confusing regarding what bitcoin is doing, but if we zoom out, we can see that generally speaking the BTC price is ongoingly up and to the right.. sure in the short term there are various corrections along the way. .and up and to the right is not guaranteed, but if bitcoin were like you (@ginsan) suggest it to be, we end up being mostly flat and/or stable, which surely is not the case.. Bitcoin is volatile and even inevitably volatile to such a degree that it may well be one of the ONLY things that you can surely count on, even though surely some people do want to presume that bitcoin is inevitably going to continue up and to the right, which surely might be true, but it is surely not guaranteed to go up... even though it has tended to and even though there is no real reason to start to speculate that it is going to stop going generally up.
So any dip is always the best point to accumulate bitcoins where we can hold them for a long period. Well, DCA certainly won't have an effect because every purchase is made in stages, either at a low price or an expensive price, because at the end of the target we will adjust the average entry for the purchases we have made.
Many hope that the price of Bitcoin will fall again so they can buy aggressively but the market will not change immediately because we are already at the point of a 46% decline from its highest price. Therefore it is more appropriate for us to continue buying bitcoin while we are still below its highest price.
Sure the earlier you are in your BTC accumulation journey, the more likely you should not give too many shits if the BTC price dips, and you may even want the BTC price to dip and/or stay down since you are still building your BTC position and you might not even be losing very much value when the BTC price does drop since your BTC holdings might not have gotten to a point of being very BIG, yet.
There will likely come a point in your BTC accumulation journey that you prefer up.. even if you might buy on dips, you realize that you largely have enough BTC and so you would rather be in profits rather than being in the negative.. since sometimes it can feel frustrating to be in the negative for long periods of time.. especially if you might not have had been in bitcoin a whole cycle (which is 4 years), and sure there are some folks who have screwed up their BTC accumulation so badly that they are still hoping and praying for down because they come to some realizations that it is probably better to be accumulating bitcoin ongoingly rather than fucking around with other kinds of matters or maybe even having had been too whimpy in their earlier BTC accumulation focus. We are still early.. even though surely sometimes if can take a bit of pain before realizing that the best way to accumulate bitcoin has to do with just regular and ongoing buying strategies rather than screwing around with either leverage and/or trading and/or shitcoins and/or listening to mainstream misleading and/or distracting misinformation about bitcoin.
It is important we make this clarification so that new people going through this discussion will not think that investing in Bitcoin is that complicated because it isn't. It is more of a mentality something after the financial aspect have been taken care of. By mentality, I'm referring to the ability to invest without fear, greed and the resolve to give the investment time to yield profits.
to be really frank, when I use to hear about bitcoin before joining the forum, there used to be this feeling of complexity attached to it and I never knew it's a simple thing that doesn't really involve much complex analysis before one can invest into bitcoin. I guess that's possibly the reason why some persons are afraid to invest in bitcoin because they look at it as one complex stuff that they will needd to take a whole bunch of time studying before they can get the basic knowledge that will guarantee proper investment
that is very true. Sure there are a lot of things that can be complex and confusing about bitcoin, but developing an investment thesis in bitcoin is not necessarily complex, yet the mere fact that you have started to invest in bitcoin, should not cause you to presume that you either know what bitcoin is or that you can stop studying it.
Each person likely should be attempting to study and learn about bitcoin while s/he is ongoingly investing into it, yet at the same time, the mere fact that it is a good idea to continue to learn about bitcoin would be so that we have some ideas about whether we need to tweak our position, and maybe if we were to start by investing $10 per week into bitcoin, even though we know we could afford $100 per week, after we study bitcoin for a while we might be able to come to realize that we should be investing the total of our $100 per week into bitcoin rather than $10 per week, and we also might come to realize that we have to figure out ways to either increase our income and/or to decrease our expenses so we can buy more bitcoin, so after studying bitcoin we might end up gong from $10 per week, to $100 per week, to $200 per week and maybe we might even figure out some other things that we could end up doing to both invest in bitcoin and set various kinds of targets for ourselves in regards to what we want to do with our bitcoin investment.. and/or how we might come to want to manage our investment once we start to achieve higher levels of BTC accumulation.
2% is too optimistic? And what about my assignment of 0.5% odds for more than $2.5million. is that too optimistic too?
>>>>>"Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% [a 33x to 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<
>>>>>"SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% [more than a 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<
How would you propose that we fix what you believe to be too optimistic.. since I already put out those numbers we should not remove the numbers, but instead assign lower odds to them.. so what kind of numbers do you believe to be more realistic for those two upper categories? Are they zero or is there some kind of a non zero probability that you could imagine that justifies assigning them some kind of probability.. right now.. not 6 months down the road, but now.
Remember in 2013 we had more than a 100x price appreciation in just one year from BTC prices less than $10 and going to right around $1,163.
Remember in 2017 we had right around a 78x price appreciation in two years going from $250 to $19,666.
Remember in 2021 we had right around a 16.5x price appreciation in two-ish years going from $4,200 to $69k.
I find it difficult to merely assign a narrow set of scenarios and thereafter expect BTC to comply, even if you consider that your set of scenarios is the most probable, and you might end up being correct, but that surely does not mean that other scenarios are not potentially reasonable and/or deserving some kind of a consideration and/or probability that is more than just dismissing the other variations as if they were zero% odds, merely because for some reason you seem to have aspirations to be a wannabe sorcerer.
It's okay to be optimistic and I do believe that expect the unexpected scenario always.
From my point of view 2% is hardly expecting shit. Sure, I could have had made it 1% or maybe even less than 1%, but off the top of my head (and at this particular moment), I believe that 2% is more realistic than 1%, and surely the way you are talking you seem to be suggesting that it is some other number, such as zero.. .. and if you really believe that the odds are zero, then it seems to me that you are the one who is pie and in the sky and unrealistic and perhaps even failing/refusing to recognize and appreciate what bitcoin is.
Too optimistic is just an instant reaction to the value when I see that $1M tag and it doesn't mean to disagree on the values or anything.
Well, if you don't disagree and you don't even really have any other proposed number, then you are using the wrong words. Reasonable people can assign different numbers, and in the last cycle, there were plenty of times that I had heard quite a few forum members assigning zero odds to certain upside scenarios (including scenarios in
my December 16, 2021 Upside scenarios post), and even though they ended up being correct, since the $69k, top was already in, I cannot remember anyone actually wanting to place some kind of a meaningful bet on the various places that they had proclaimed to have zero probabilities of happening. When push comes to shove, they were not willing to do it, especially since any kind of reasonable bet would have to account for the probabilities, so for example if you wanted to assign zero probabilities to something that I place 2% odds, then in order to make the bet fair, I would have to bet ONLY a fraction of what you would have to bet, so I would have a low chance of winning a lot and you would have a great chance of winning little (in comparison to the amount that you ended up putting up).
And I expect the million range after a few more cycles so in my prediction it is close to impossible before 2025 so I will put the values of anything over 500K to the closer value of zero and it's just my opinion though.
If you were wanting to bet zero probabilities on anything over $500k, then I am sure that there would be plenty of people willing to take you up on such a bet, even though like I said the odds would be in your favor. My prediction amounts shows 10% odds of something higher than $500k by the end of 2025, but in some of my subsequent posts, I had also stated that I only consider that it is 70% to 80% probable that we have a new ATH prior to 2025 (which is an underlying presumption of the terms of my bet), so if we account for the 70-80% odds of my spectrum of possibilities even being entered into, then we must acknowledge that my closer to real probability assignment for prices above $500k before the end of 2025 would be in the ballpark of 7.5%. What you think about that? 0% versus 7.5%.. how would we structure a bet, if actually were to really believe what you are suggesting above $500k prior to the end of 2025 to be zero?
As the market evolves and as new factors come into play, these predictions can be recalibrated. It's crucial to approach such forecasts with a healthy dose of optimism tempered with rational assessment.
That's true, but if anyone is making a prediction right now, then s/he makes it based on what s/he knows at this particular time, and surely if facts change, then the odds for various scenarios change too... they might go up or they might go down depending on a variety of factors, including that if we were to breach our current ATH prior to the end of 2023, then it is quite likely that would affect the numbers that I already outlined... At that point maybe becoming more optimistic rather than less, since the underlying assumption of a new ATH had already been met, so at least the lowest of the categories had been met, so maybe the whole thing might need to be tweaked in a variety of ways to continue to allow it to try to make sense based on whatever the new facts happened have become.
