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Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 352. (Read 123547 times)

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 276
January 16, 2024, 06:44:03 AM
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, so you just do your best.. and sometimes it can be o.k. to build up a separate fund that you would be able to use for buying on dips, even if you might ONLY be setting aside a few dollars every week for such potential purposes, and frequently I think that $10 per week is very small, yet I know that some members in some parts of the world feel that they can ONLY do $10 per month, and so doing $10 per week, you are investing 4 times more than they are.. and sometimes there could be some ways to both invest into bitcoin regularly and to build up a side fund that you would use for buying on dips.. and really my example 8 is stemming from the hypothetical income and expenses that I described to exist in example 1 .
Yeah you are right past performance doesn't guarantee future results but it only serve as a roadmap that will guide him through his investment decisions and the negative or positive things that could happen if taking a certain decisions and how he can avert it.

Actually having a separate funds is a very nice idea because if our intention is to target both the DCA accumulation and buying when the price is dip, so perhaps we could structure two ways of accumulation first keeping or budgeting a particular fund for regularly DCA accumulation and secondly by keeping a fund to accumulate Bitcoin when it dips. Perhaps just like your explanation on the example 8, there is every need to have a lum sum method if we are using DCA strategy because it will always enable us to utilize every opportunity given to us when the price is dip but although it all depends on the financial strength of the investor.
hero member
Activity: 952
Merit: 541
January 16, 2024, 05:25:40 AM
Different investors have different motives or different reasons for investing. One of the reasons why some investors holds Bitcoin for longer period is to see high profitability. Bitcoin has a total supply of 21 million and the world population is over 8 billion and with each passing day Bitcoin is gaining more adoption, that means many people will be investing in Bitcoin and this will keep pushing the price up. It has also been proven from history that long term holders are the ones who stand the chance of making profit in Bitcoin.

Here we learn how to hold Bitcoin for long term, Bitcoin price ups and downs and from there regular Bitcoin investment, how to save from high Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin is used by people of almost all countries, but we will learn how to invest in DCA method. Here it is possible to learn this form of DCA method until a new investor becomes successful with Bitcoin investing. As I have invested in Bitcoin in the past by following the DCA method from there I keep investing for longer and accumulate more Bitcoins. By adopting this DCA strategy alone, adopting DCA strategy definitely increases investment interest.
A strategy is really needed to get maximum results in Bitcoin investment. The DCA strategy is very suitable for beginner investors who are not familiar with fundamental or technical analysis. This strategy is also very commonly used by investors who have been in the Bitcoin market for a long time. One of investors' goals in investing is to minimize risk, the DCA strategy can help investors reduce investment decisions based on emotions and FOMO.
Investors who want to invest in Bitcoin must have the courage to start investing any amount and make it a regular habit. When the convenience and benefits of the DCA strategy are felt, it will certainly attract more interest from investors to continue investing regularly.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
January 16, 2024, 04:42:02 AM

[edited out]


Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.

The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.


It sounds like you keep praying for a dip that might not happen.  


Haha of course, with my strategy I'm always praying for a DIP!

But don't make it sound that the hypothesis about a possible recession caused my a macro-economic failure is not supported by factual basis. It isn't based on "prayers", ser. Simply data.


At least you admit that you are doing a lot of praying, and perhaps too much praying and not enough buying of BTC.


For the limited capital I have, I have enough. Don't worry about me, ser. Cool

Additional purchases will be small and only if there's a good discount, which I believe will be coming.


The Federal Reserve has two mandates,

- Maximum employment
- Price stability

Jerome Powell must accept that to serve one, he must disable the other. In most of history inflation was never truly curbed until unemployment rate surges, causing a recession.


I know that you have been ongoingly and persistently distracted by such Macro nonsense... and since when should we have gotten distracted into giving very many shits about what the Fed is doing?  Sure liquidity is a factor, but we still have bitcoin the three main factors that have ongoingly influenced BTC prices which is 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).


OK, I respect the opinion, but let's wait for the "Macro Nonsense" if something does break. I'm not going to say "I told you so", but what I'm going to say is just save some of that DCA money and allocate it to Buy the DIP.


Hopefully you are adequately prepared for UP, and you are not regretting too much that you had ended up holding way too much cash in August, September and October waiting for dips that did not end up happening then, either... but hey, whatever, you do you.


My biggest purchases was during the year when I made this topic. Most of my savings until that time went into Bitcoin.


O.k.  I will create an example 8 from this information...

--Snip--


You hoped that I'm adequately prepared for "UP", I merely replied to you that yes, I'm very confident that I'm ready. Your 8-point example will be wasted on someone who is in the left side of the I.Q. Bell Curve like me. Cool
sr. member
Activity: 784
Merit: 372
January 16, 2024, 03:26:13 AM
If I may ask with our disrupting this thread what is the main purpose of accumuting bitcoin for long term, cause if you are not selling When it's high and making profit or is there something I dont know about the long term investment in bitcoin and its benefits, cause I'm a little bit confused on why I should be accumulating bitcoin for long term if not to make profit. Are they any hidden benefits of doing this. I'm not a hater, I just want to learn, if purpose is not know then misuse is inevitable. I'm coming to understand how DCA works by going through the thread but, I don't see a place my dcaing ends for me to make profit. I'm not looking for a get rich scheme in bitcoin accumulation. I just want to know the exact reasons that would be motivating everyone to hold for long without any sell plan. I just started investing in bitcoin last week with my first 10$ investment, quite small but its a start since my salary is small for now, I really want to catch up, but I need clarification on this since I'm.beign bothered about it.
Different investors have different motives or different reasons for investing. One of the reasons why some investors holds Bitcoin for longer period is to see high profitability. Bitcoin has a total supply of 21 million and the world population is over 8 billion and with each passing day Bitcoin is gaining more adoption, that means many people will be investing in Bitcoin and this will keep pushing the price up. It has also been proven from history that long term holders are the ones who stand the chance of making profit in Bitcoin.

Here we learn how to hold Bitcoin for long term, Bitcoin price ups and downs and from there regular Bitcoin investment, how to save from high Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin is used by people of almost all countries, but we will learn how to invest in DCA method. Here it is possible to learn this form of DCA method until a new investor becomes successful with Bitcoin investing. As I have invested in Bitcoin in the past by following the DCA method from there I keep investing for longer and accumulate more Bitcoins. By adopting this DCA strategy alone, adopting DCA strategy definitely increases investment interest.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 196
January 16, 2024, 03:08:42 AM

I think every year is always the best for those who continue to buy Bitcoin on a DCA basis because they continue to buy and don't care about news or bad news. That's probably why some people don't organize their initial planning carefully so they always assume that there will be a future time that will be much better than now. I think postponing it is not a good thing because doubt is certainly a regret that will haunt their minds.
you know their is one thing about procrastination tendencies, it will make you feel like the best time to ever do a thing or make any decision is in the future. So many persons that have planned to start accumulating and holding bitcoin last year but could not do it and that have shifted it to this year would still be saying that the year has just started and that they will hodl it as the year progresses forgetting that they've been saying it in the past and have not made any positive decision yet.

It's good to at least make plans before deciding an amount of bitcoin what would buy but when year after year we still continue planning to buy and never buying it, then it goes to show that our bitcoin experience isn't complete.

The truth is, if you can't accumulate today, chances are that you wouldn't be able I accumulate in their future. Remember that today is the future of yesterday and tomorrow will still be as today so Buy the DIP and HODL!
sr. member
Activity: 98
Merit: 55
R7 for Campaign management
January 16, 2024, 01:23:34 AM
You cannot really know how the numbers are going to play out, so you should be merely attempting to do your best with what you got and what you know, and the thing that you know most is your own current budget (especially how much money you currently have on hand), and then you should have a pretty good idea of the amount of pay that you have coming in, but it cannot necessarily be completely known until you actually get paid.  And, with your expenses, you probably know most of them, but you have some that come about from time to time or they change from time to time.

I think it can be good to at least think about all three categories of the way to invest (well 4 categories, if you think about making sure that your emergency fund is decently in place or being ongoingly built), and so sometimes you might be in circumstances in which you might not be able to employ all three circumstances, such as being able to employ the lump sum because you feel that you do not have enough of a lump sum to work with, and ultimately that is going to be up to you to figure out what would be the most comfortable of the balances of the 3/4 categories.  
Thank you sir. From this I believe that having all three strategies at hand would even be more favourable to me, just incase the price soares then if I had lump sum a specific amount I would be at more advantage, and if it the price has reduced I shoul also have a reserve for buying dips if necessary. From what your implying, all strategies are good when you have a proper plan behind your accumulation and dca is just safe cause I won't have to worry about the market conditions or Current price, since I'm just investing specific amounts on intervals.

And I think I would catch up pretty fast cause I do have multiple sources of income, I won't like to share my total income for a month cause its mostly irregular cause I do have some mini investments going on with a forex group, but from your first paragraph it think your also telling me to make sure I remove some money for my upkeep, I'm still with my parents for now tho, so I think that is covered, the emergency fund, should i also remove a part of my income to cover up emergency, what kind of emergency are we talking about here?. For a start I think I can use two strategies, lump sum and dca since I can manage that for now, is it also possible I lump sum on dips, since its buying with a huge percentage of your capital each month, can I use lump sum in a way that i set it to buy at any dip that occurs in the market while I use dca to be on a safe side since the market is unpredictable? .
You may well feel screwed if the BTC price goes down after you had already invested all $200 and then you don't have anything left, and then you may well feel screwed if BTC prices go up and you still are sitting on some cash.  In the beginning it is almost a no win situation and you just try to balance it out as best as you can, and maybe after a few years investing you start to feel that you have everything in place.  You have figured out your budget and you have some reserves for buying on dips and you have built and established an emergency fund.. and maybe you have figured out some ways in increase your cash flows and to decrease your expenses... but you still are likely going to always have some tensions in terms of trying to figure out how many BTC you need and how long it is going to take to accumulate as many BTC as you believe that you need.. especially if your goals might be to reach some variation of fuck you status...

and if you think about it, there are a lot of people who work 30-40 years or more and they do not reach fuck you status, so if you are able to actually reach it or maybe even reach it in 15-20 years, then you end up both reaching it and cutting the time in half.. and none of that is guaranteed.. You just need to do your best under your own particular circumstances.
I believe in other to avoid that tension I would set a big goal, then start with smaller targets or milestone, this emotion strategy would be good for me to avoid the tension around the time frame for accumulation and how many I would accumulation within that time frame. Cause I believe it all boils down to the amount I'm putting in or investing in bitcoin. My strategies would even work better with a higher income, which I should try to fix. I now have an idea 💡, I could start up a business in my school and deposit all my profit as a daily dca in bitcoin, then use my monthly income for lump sums, this way I'll have a chill and start saving up some emergency funds, even if I'm not clear on its purpose. Let say I set aside another 200$, and Start up a snack business at my school, with the high traffic I'll could make daily profit of about 20$-50$ on average to very good days cause I'm targeting the hostel areas, then I'll dca about 80% or 70% of my profit daily into bitcoin and at the end of the month if I was invested a total of 20$ daily I would have total of 560$ already in bitcoin, not including my monthly lump sum. The reason I would like to have this business first is because I think I would accumulate faster and reach my goals if I had a steadier source of income that I can plan with. Then reach my own fuck you status wouldn't be a problem. If I'm going with about 5 years and sure my investment amount would be increasing, I might be able to achieve at least 2 bitcoin if not more in this time frame. I'll start by setting my first milestone which should be getting a more steady source of income. Or I could even invest 15$ from my daily profit and save 5$ so at a weekly or 2 weeks interval I'll lump sum a bit, just in cases where the price might have little fluctuations which could be up or down
Im definitely cool with dca cause from your examples I think dca is the best strategy for a newbie like me then I can learn more about buying dips and all that, and judging from my capital, how much would I be keeping out for dips, I just think its not enough, so I'll dca first, then I can add other plans later. Although I had already invested 10$ into bitcoin last week,  I going now i can move a bit slowly, while getting more capital to fund other strategies.

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, so you just do your best.. and sometimes it can be o.k. to build up a separate fund that you would be able to use for buying on dips, even if you might ONLY be setting aside a few dollars every week for such potential purposes, and frequently I think that $10 per week is very small, yet I know that some members in some parts of the world feel that they can ONLY do $10 per month, and so doing $10 per week, you are investing 4 times more than they are.. and sometimes there could be some ways to both invest into bitcoin regularly and to build up a side fund that you would use for buying on dips.. and really my example 8 is stemming from the hypothetical income and expenses that I described to exist in example 1 .

Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.

So in my hypothetical there is already some income and expenses presumptions that even seem to give quite a bit of a cushion for possible investing into BTC, and there is debt described and a pretty much inadequate emergency fund, so sometimes there can be enough income to be able to accomplish several things at once, but at the same time, there can be struggles in which a person might not have much if any cash left over to be able to invest into bitcoin, and so there would likely need to be some setting of priorities and if they actually have emergency expenses that end up occurring in any particular month, they can end up putting themselves into a pickle if they don't have enough in their emergency funds to cover their expenses during that period, and they feel that they have to dip into their BTC at a time that is not of their own complete and voluntary choosing.

A lot of poor  people (or not so rich people who have tight cashflows) will fail in their investments (including their BTC investment) because they have not structured their investment properly and they are ONLY preparing for UP and/or they are not creating, building and maintaining an adequate/sufficiently sized emergency fund.. which should be 3-6 months of their expenses in cash (or the currency in which they are paying their expenses).
And that the reason I think setting up a business that could support my investment would be good, cause if I'm investing just 10$ weekly, how long do would it take to accumulate up to 1 bitcoin for me, and the market would either favor me in this case by decrease which I can't bet on, or increasing which would most likely happen. So i think to avoid a poor accumulation result I must have a plan that should help accelerate the process by giving more capital to strategies and invest properly. Even with a monthly earning that could go up to 300$ just assuming, alone would not give me a good time frame for accumulation since I might have some short comings that would make me dip my hand back in my investment and even my expense must be managed properly to for me to hive a higher chance to save up some emergency funds. For now I think I would start with dca with my little allowance and then use my monthly income to set up a system that can generate a substantial amount for investment. Cause if poor income and management could be a deficiency in accumulation where I might have to dip my hand back in my portfolio then I guess my first real move here should be to fix that and get my finance in order. What do you think about this.
sr. member
Activity: 224
Merit: 195
January 16, 2024, 01:20:56 AM
Most important in regards to particulars would be how long you have been investing into bitcoin and some of the techniques that you might have used during that time to build your BTC holdings.  None of us here have been asking anyone to disclose their quantity of BTC, so frequently we speak in terms of hypotheticals... and sure some guys have described their own numbers but it is not necessary.  Even with myself, I change around my amounts from time to time, but I still tend to describe various timelines and various techniques that I had been using along the way, since when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013.

Timeline is a kind of important factor since many times, guys try to spout out various kinds of preferred practices whether that is trading or waiting for dips, and frequently we can compare their entry timeline and throw in some hypothetical amount for what their DCA might have had been, and it is up to them to compare if whatever technique that they had been employing would have ended up coming close to or even beating a straight-forward persistent and consistent DCA strategy... and even that takes time to play out.. maybe 4-10 years or longer, since anyone might be able to play some short term price waves for a while, but who cares?   

If in this thread we are mostly trying to emphasize ways that any of us might employ longer term techniques in which we are going to be advantaged 4-10 years or longer, then we should not necessarily be trying to count our results in the shorter terms, and surely we are not talking about trading here anyhow, so maybe those guys should go to some other thread to talk about those kinds of techniques.

If your technique might be giving you results in the ball park of a straight forward DCA strategy, then that is all likely fine and dandy, but still personally, I am not going to be very impressed with whatever you are claiming to be your results if you are bragging or whatever in terms of some timeline that is less than 4 years - absent if there might have been some specific reason that you ended up needing to either plan such a shorter strategy or maybe something unexpected (like health related) happened in your life that caused an emergency that may well mean that your timeline (such as death or incapacitation) would end up getting cut short if you did not cash out some or all of your BTC earlier than planned.

I have not been into the Bitcoin system for a long time just with a max of 2yrs and my holding is still on the long run of accumulation, my total budget has been placed according to my financial stability calculated into a successive period of time which I find it much better mainly deploying the DCA strategy but including the DIP technique as well. I find it much better doing both, when the price was down to $20k, I knew it was one perfect opportunity and at that moment I put in my possible best into accumulating more than what I used for my DCA. My cash flow comes monthly and some little bonuses weekly, the cash from my monthly payroll goes into my DCA technique account then finding a convenient DIP in the market I buy all in with the weekly cash.

absent if there might have been some specific reason that you ended up needing to either plan such a shorter strategy or maybe something unexpected (like health related) happened in your life that caused an emergency that may well mean that your timeline (such as death or incapacitation) would end up getting cut short if you did not cash out some or all of your BTC earlier than planned.

We don't pray for stuffs like this to happen but paraventure it happens I have build in this connection with someone in my family who has the basic knowledge about Bitcoin and merely have access to my holding account, we both set up this plan cause we intend our holdings for a longer term and if any unforeseen incident might happen then all our effort into Bitcoin accumulating will not be in vain.


Oh, sorry, I wrote it wrong so it confused you. What I mean is that I don't care about short-term profits but I aim for long-term profits. Maybe it was because I was sleepy and didn't check what I wrote. Once again, I'm sorry.

They will want to hold their Bitcoin to get bigger profits after seeing what happened from 2013 to 2017. They will wait until the price increases to be very high before they sell it. That is an example because I am sure each investor will have short and long-term plans.

But I say again, I don't want to take short-term profits. I still hope to get long-term profits so I still hold the Bitcoin to sell later at the highest price. And I have also edited my post so that there is no misunderstanding. Once again, forgive me if I confused you. I wrote it wrong so forgive me.
Experience should never been said to be the best teacher, I prefer learning from people mistakes and excluding the HAD I KNOW outcome. Many people do regret selling their Bitcoin investment too early than they should, not that they still can't accumulate one's more but the entry price won't be promising as the former. It is always ideal we stick to long term investment to maximize our profits.
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 286
January 15, 2024, 11:11:16 PM
What I'm learning from example 8, is that while lump suming might be a good strategy to start with, it's better to also include dca in your accumulation strategy for maximum output. From your example 8 the guy actually accumulated more bitcoin from dca than he did from lump sum even if he started with lump sum first even with almost same amount. I think I should just start with dca and see how I can plan out everything, so if I have a start up capital that I would use from my savings about 200$ I could just divide this amount into smaller pieces and invest them on intervals, and if dips occurs or not ill still be on the winning side or do I still need to worry about buying dips if I'm using only dca. Im definitely cool with dca cause from your examples I think dca is the best strategy for a newbie like me then I can learn more about buying dips and all that, and judging from my capital, how much would I be keeping out for dips, I just think its not enough, so I'll dca first, then I can add other plans later. Although I had already invested 10$ into bitcoin last week,  I going now i can move a bit slowly, while getting more capital to fund other strategies.
The DCA investment method is that first you have to divide your capital into several parts and after dividing the capital into several parts, each tiger amount has to be invested in different positions of the Bitcoin market. If there is no fixed time table in the DCA investment method, you can invest at any time according to the market position. It doesn't matter if you invest in Bitcoin a little earlier or later, the important thing is that you can invest in Bitcoin regularly. Some investors invest a portion of their salary in DCA investment method. When investors didn't know about DCA strategy investors used to save little by little to invest but since knowing about DCA method investors are now investing little by little instead of saving little by little. 

Investing is like joining a new school, if you join a new school, you feel very nervous on the first day and you don't want to go to school because you don't have friends for the first few days. But I think those who can start investing by keeping this fear aside, find it very easy to invest and after investing, they start planning their investments for long term and continue to invest.

They will want to hold their Bitcoin to get bigger profits after seeing what happened from 2013 to 2017. They will wait until the price increases to be very high before they sell it. That is an example because I am sure each investor will have short and long-term plans.
Anyone who looks at Bitcoin's past history is bound to believe that investing in Bitcoin and holding that investment for a long time is the most profitable of all. You will see where Bitcoin's journey started and where it stopped. Since 2009 till now, Bitcoin's popularity has increased as well as the value of Bitcoin has increased a lot. There are many investors who are just watching the market but haven't dared to invest. Those investors have been watching the market for years and missing opportunities and regretting not being able to invest. Investing in a short-term plan by understanding the market may give you some profit, but if you hold your bitcoins for a long period of time, bitcoins will give you much more than you expect. We cannot covet a small amount of gain for the sake of this much, we must aim for something much bigger.
hero member
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January 15, 2024, 10:39:30 PM
I don't care about short-term profits because I aim for short-term profits. If people experienced times in 2013 when the price of Bitcoin was still very low and rose very high in 2017, that would make them hold onto their Bitcoin again. They will aim for long-term profits.

If they invest in Bitcoin because of the ETF approval, they will probably sell Bitcoin when the price is over $60k but short of $100k. That has provided huge benefits for them. But they will regret selling too quickly when the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100k.

But that's okay because at least each investor already has a plan. They will continue to carry out their plan to get the biggest profit from investing in Bitcoin. Hopefully, we can still be patient waiting for the price to reach its new ATH above $100k so that the waiting time we are doing now can make us satisfied with the profits.
I feel lost on what you saying, you clearly stated you very into short term profit "  I don't care about short-term profits because I aim for short-term profits" and you also said "If people experienced times in 2013 when the price of Bitcoin was still very low and rose very high in 2017, that would make them hold onto their Bitcoin again. They will aim for long-term profits." you clearly stated both options which you choose for the short term but fully admitted the fact that long term investment gives better profits so why then would you still choose selling after a successive increase in price, not trying to convince tho, but our decisions should aswell be solid cos our main reason of investing in Bitcoin is to yield good profits and the long term investment can be the right choice.
Oh, sorry, I wrote it wrong so it confused you. What I mean is that I don't care about short-term profits but I aim for long-term profits. Maybe it was because I was sleepy and didn't check what I wrote. Once again, I'm sorry.

They will want to hold their Bitcoin to get bigger profits after seeing what happened from 2013 to 2017. They will wait until the price increases to be very high before they sell it. That is an example because I am sure each investor will have short and long-term plans.

But I say again, I don't want to take short-term profits. I still hope to get long-term profits so I still hold the Bitcoin to sell later at the highest price. And I have also edited my post so that there is no misunderstanding. Once again, forgive me if I confused you. I wrote it wrong so forgive me.
legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
January 15, 2024, 07:04:48 PM
Example 8: This person has similar circumstances as Example 4 with mostly a lump sum investment towards the earlier stages of his investment.. and so there will be a bit of an assumption that the lump sum investment amount will have come from saving $10-$15 per week through most of 2016, 2017, and 2018  (so we will estimate be a bit generous and estimate the savings and lump sum amount to have had been $2,400), and so if the purchase of BTC was made based on BTC prices through out 2019, we might have to estimate an average cost per BTC around $7k, which would be around 0.32432432 BTC, and then if we presume $10 per week investment into bitcoin starting on April 1, 2019, (rather than merely 18 months), so the DCA portion of his investment ended up being $2,510 and accumulated about 0.15787 BTC, and so his total invested would be $4,910 (lump sum of $2,400 and DCA of $2,510) with a total amount of BTC  0.48219432 (0.32432432 + 0.15787). (currently worth around $20,493). 

So part of my point in showing example 8 is to suggest that a guy is going to likely be better off to include DCA into his investment approach, even if he might start out with a lump sum, and surely, even just getting started with DCA right from the start (which example 7 shows) would have performed even better results than example 8.

If there are some facts that I am missing, then let me know, yet I stick by my assertion that anyone new to bitcoin, should get the fuck started as soon as possible, whether that is strictly just DCA while trying to figure out matters, or maybe lump sum investing and then supplementing with DCA until reaching some amount of BTC accumulation that is comfortable for his situation or at least triggers him to adjust his approach. 

Surely, I have no problem with the idea of also holding some money aside in order to buy on dips too... but if the buying of BTC is quite regular in the earlier stages of BTC investing, there are going to be periods in which the BTC price dips and since DCA is already taking place, then buying at those lower dip prices would also be taking place under such dip conditions..
What I'm learning from example 8, is that while lump suming might be a good strategy to start with, it's better to also include dca in your accumulation strategy for maximum output. From your example 8 the guy actually accumulated more bitcoin from dca than he did from lump sum even if he started with lump sum first even with almost same amount. I think I should just start with dca and see how I can plan out everything, so if I have a start up capital that I would use from my savings about 200$ I could just divide this amount into smaller pieces and invest them on intervals, and if dips occurs or not ill still be on the winning side or do I still need to worry about buying dips if I'm using only dca.

You cannot really know how the numbers are going to play out, so you should be merely attempting to do your best with what you got and what you know, and the thing that you know most is your own current budget (especially how much money you currently have on hand), and then you should have a pretty good idea of the amount of pay that you have coming in, but it cannot necessarily be completely known until you actually get paid.  And, with your expenses, you probably know most of them, but you have some that come about from time to time or they change from time to time.

I think it can be good to at least think about all three categories of the way to invest (well 4 categories, if you think about making sure that your emergency fund is decently in place or being ongoingly built), and so sometimes you might be in circumstances in which you might not be able to employ all three circumstances, such as being able to employ the lump sum because you feel that you do not have enough of a lump sum to work with, and ultimately that is going to be up to you to figure out what would be the most comfortable of the balances of the 3/4 categories. 

You may well feel screwed if the BTC price goes down after you had already invested all $200 and then you don't have anything left, and then you may well feel screwed if BTC prices go up and you still are sitting on some cash.  In the beginning it is almost a no win situation and you just try to balance it out as best as you can, and maybe after a few years investing you start to feel that you have everything in place.  You have figured out your budget and you have some reserves for buying on dips and you have built and established an emergency fund.. and maybe you have figured out some ways in increase your cash flows and to decrease your expenses... but you still are likely going to always have some tensions in terms of trying to figure out how many BTC you need and how long it is going to take to accumulate as many BTC as you believe that you need.. especially if your goals might be to reach some variation of fuck you status...

and if you think about it, there are a lot of people who work 30-40 years or more and they do not reach fuck you status, so if you are able to actually reach it or maybe even reach it in 15-20 years, then you end up both reaching it and cutting the time in half.. and none of that is guaranteed.. You just need to do your best under your own particular circumstances.

Im definitely cool with dca cause from your examples I think dca is the best strategy for a newbie like me then I can learn more about buying dips and all that, and judging from my capital, how much would I be keeping out for dips, I just think its not enough, so I'll dca first, then I can add other plans later. Although I had already invested 10$ into bitcoin last week,  I going now i can move a bit slowly, while getting more capital to fund other strategies.

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, so you just do your best.. and sometimes it can be o.k. to build up a separate fund that you would be able to use for buying on dips, even if you might ONLY be setting aside a few dollars every week for such potential purposes, and frequently I think that $10 per week is very small, yet I know that some members in some parts of the world feel that they can ONLY do $10 per month, and so doing $10 per week, you are investing 4 times more than they are.. and sometimes there could be some ways to both invest into bitcoin regularly and to build up a side fund that you would use for buying on dips.. and really my example 8 is stemming from the hypothetical income and expenses that I described to exist in example 1 .

Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.

So in my hypothetical there is already some income and expenses presumptions that even seem to give quite a bit of a cushion for possible investing into BTC, and there is debt described and a pretty much inadequate emergency fund, so sometimes there can be enough income to be able to accomplish several things at once, but at the same time, there can be struggles in which a person might not have much if any cash left over to be able to invest into bitcoin, and so there would likely need to be some setting of priorities and if they actually have emergency expenses that end up occurring in any particular month, they can end up putting themselves into a pickle if they don't have enough in their emergency funds to cover their expenses during that period, and they feel that they have to dip into their BTC at a time that is not of their own complete and voluntary choosing.

A lot of poor  people (or not so rich people who have tight cashflows) will fail in their investments (including their BTC investment) because they have not structured their investment properly and they are ONLY preparing for UP and/or they are not creating, building and maintaining an adequate/sufficiently sized emergency fund.. which should be 3-6 months of their expenses in cash (or the currency in which they are paying their expenses).
sr. member
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January 15, 2024, 06:13:50 PM

Example 8: This person has similar circumstances as Example 4 with mostly a lump sum investment towards the earlier stages of his investment.. and so there will be a bit of an assumption that the lump sum investment amount will have come from saving $10-$15 per week through most of 2016, 2017, and 2018  (so we will estimate be a bit generous and estimate the savings and lump sum amount to have had been $2,400), and so if the purchase of BTC was made based on BTC prices through out 2019, we might have to estimate an average cost per BTC around $7k, which would be around 0.32432432 BTC, and then if we presume $10 per week investment into bitcoin starting on April 1, 2019, (rather than merely 18 months), so the DCA portion of his investment ended up being $2,510 and accumulated about 0.15787 BTC, and so his total invested would be $4,910 (lump sum of $2,400 and DCA of $2,510) with a total amount of BTC  0.48219432 (0.32432432 + 0.15787). (currently worth around $20,493). 

So part of my point in showing example 8 is to suggest that a guy is going to likely be better off to include DCA into his investment approach, even if he might start out with a lump sum, and surely, even just getting started with DCA right from the start (which example 7 shows) would have performed even better results than example 8.

If there are some facts that I am missing, then let me know, yet I stick by my assertion that anyone new to bitcoin, should get the fuck started as soon as possible, whether that is strictly just DCA while trying to figure out matters, or maybe lump sum investing and then supplementing with DCA until reaching some amount of BTC accumulation that is comfortable for his situation or at least triggers him to adjust his approach. 

Surely, I have no problem with the idea of also holding some money aside in order to buy on dips too... but if the buying of BTC is quite regular in the earlier stages of BTC investing, there are going to be periods in which the BTC price dips and since DCA is already taking place, then buying at those lower dip prices would also be taking place under such dip conditions..

What I'm learning from example 8, is that while lump suming might be a good strategy to start with, it's better to also include dca in your accumulation strategy for maximum output. From your example 8 the guy actually accumulated more bitcoin from dca than he did from lump sum even if he started with lump sum first even with almost same amount. I think I should just start with dca and see how I can plan out everything, so if I have a start up capital that I would use from my savings about 200$ I could just divide this amount into smaller pieces and invest them on intervals, and if dips occurs or not ill still be on the winning side or do I still need to worry about buying dips if I'm using only dca. Im definitely cool with dca cause from your examples I think dca is the best strategy for a newbie like me then I can learn more about buying dips and all that, and judging from my capital, how much would I be keeping out for dips, I just think its not enough, so I'll dca first, then I can add other plans later. Although I had already invested 10$ into bitcoin last week,  I going now i can move a bit slowly, while getting more capital to fund other strategies.
sr. member
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January 15, 2024, 05:01:39 PM
If I may ask with our disrupting this thread what is the main purpose of accumuting bitcoin for long term, cause if you are not selling When it's high and making profit or is there something I dont know about the long term investment in bitcoin and its benefits, cause I'm a little bit confused on why I should be accumulating bitcoin for long term if not to make profit. Are they any hidden benefits of doing this. I'm not a hater, I just want to learn, if purpose is not know then misuse is inevitable. I'm coming to understand how DCA works by going through the thread but, I don't see a place my dcaing ends for me to make profit. I'm not looking for a get rich scheme in bitcoin accumulation. I just want to know the exact reasons that would be motivating everyone to hold for long without any sell plan. I just started investing in bitcoin last week with my first 10$ investment, quite small but its a start since my salary is small for now, I really want to catch up, but I need clarification on this since I'm.beign bothered about it.
Different investors have different motives or different reasons for investing. One of the reasons why some investors holds Bitcoin for longer period is to see high profitability. Bitcoin has a total supply of 21 million and the world population is over 8 billion and with each passing day Bitcoin is gaining more adoption, that means many people will be investing in Bitcoin and this will keep pushing the price up. It has also been proven from history that long term holders are the ones who stand the chance of making profit in Bitcoin.
hero member
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January 15, 2024, 03:18:51 PM
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I don't know why so many members suggest that they are agreeing with me and then substituting their idea of best for 2023 from my idea of good... and the original topic was more about whether 2024 would be better than 2023, and sure there can be a lot of reasons why 2023 was good for bitcoin and bitcoiners, and is there any need to say it was the best, unless merely comparing 2022 with 2023, so that would be a pretty short timeline, even though we also might say that 2021 was good for bitcoin and bitcoiners, but not even sure if it could be described as "the best" either, unless we merely want to suggest that BTC just keeps moving along, and even though 2017 and 2013 were better price performance years than 2021, there still likely is some value in merely having bitcoin lasting longer and longer, so by that standard, any dates that are further into the future would by definition be better than dates farther back into the past.
The fact because in 2023 the increase in bitcoin is quite significant, right? then any increase throughout the year may be the best year is still right because we know the real year like the bullish still hasn't started and the halving hasn't happened yet so I say it's the best year when buying low prices rather than regretting not buying because the price has now risen.

The best year that many people say
2017 high bitcoin prices, I did not experience because it was still called a layman not starting on bitcoin.
2021 feels how this best year is, but not maximized because of the little bitcoin that is owned.
2024/25? The best year? I feel that year is the best, and want to try more optimally as bitcoiners so as not to miss.

I saw that moment but now have taken advantage of it by buying and buying, so indeed looking to the future will be much more useful when looking back, so I myself will focus more on the future by HODL bitcoin longer if possible.
hero member
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January 15, 2024, 03:09:55 PM
If I may ask with our disrupting this thread what is the main purpose of accumulating bitcoin for long term, cause if you are not selling When it's high and making profit or is there something I dont know about the long-term investment in bitcoin and its benefits, cause I'm a little bit confused on why I should be accumulating bitcoin for long term if not to make profit. Are they any hidden benefits of doing this. I'm not a hater, I just want to learn, if purpose is not know then misuse is inevitable. I'm coming to understand how DCA works by going through the thread but, I don't see a place my dcaing ends for me to make profit. I'm not looking for a get rich scheme in bitcoin accumulation. I just want to know the exact reasons that would be motivating everyone to hold for long without any sell plan. I just started investing in bitcoin last week with my first 10$ investment, quite small but its a start since my salary is small for now, I really want to catch up, but I need clarification on this since I'm.beign bothered about it.
Long term investment is the best because it gives you time to be able to learn, invest and grow your investment into a certain height rather than you are buying and selling to buy back again, putting you at risk of running at loss. when you make the wrong moves. Long term investment also lowers the risk in bitcoin investment because the longer the timeline of your investment with size, the higher the risk reduces. This is because from history, it has shown that bitcoin price dip bottom line is always lower than the next circle dip bottom line.

Lastly, there is what is called compound interest(profit), this is the same for bitcoin and this is where long-term investors are happy that they started their bitcoin journey early when the price of bitcoin was $500 and imagine that they are still hodling those bitcoins till now. If you buy $10,000 worth of bitcoin at $2,000 per bitcoin and after 4yrs bitcoin price increases to $4000 per bitcoin, it means that the price doubled and your bitcoin worth will increase to $20,000, which means that you have an additional $10,000 profit and if you don't sell and hodli for another 4yrs, your $20,000 worth of bitcoin investment will have yield a profit of $20,000 based on the percentage price increments for on bitcoin.

If it happens that you buy and sell at every circle, you will be lacking behind in your bitcoin portfolio size and you will make very little profit from each circle compared to the person that will hodli for 8yrs and above. Bitcoin long term investors are building their piling up their profit to reap from it in future when it has compounded to an amount that can change your standard of living and turn your life around. This is why we need to live and invest for the future and not to be after what profit that we will make today with bitcoin.
legendary
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January 15, 2024, 01:40:18 PM

Now just to wait for a dip to hodl, and I right?

Feels like we've been starved of dips since March 2023, when price corrected from $25K to $20K, which was an incredibly tasty dip. Since then, we've had $30K to $25K that barely reached -20%.

All I can say is that I'm looking forward to more dip buying in the near future. Hopefully 2024 will be better dip buying experience than 2023 was!

I'm surprised, expecting a DIP in this 2024, I do no think so. The market is currently recovering and I don't think we should expect anymore DIP. The DIP which we have been anticipating is now at this price for those who earlier missed buy at the $15k+, $20k+ and $30k+ as long we are still below the last ATH, I consider it a good DIP for many investors to come in.


Most people also thought this in 2020 (myself included), prior to a 60% correction. 2016 was very similar, people thought the bull market had already begun and the price was "UP ONLY", but instead there was a -40% correction and 6 months of consolidation before moving higher.

NEVER be surprised to see such an aggressive dip when not in a "full-blown" bull market. Until $48.5K is reclaimed and passed on long-term time-frames, this move (from $15.5K to $49K) will forever be a dead cat bounce, just like in 2019 as well as 2016, as it's the expected retracement level from $69K to $15.5K (61.8%).

The main difference is, after this expected retracement level, Bitcoin has never fallen lower than it's low the year before, even if it came close in 2020 due to a black swan event, so it's technically a dead cat bounce without bearish continuation basically. Even if full-blown bull markets, when price has reached a new ATH there are still dips of usually up to -35%, but otherwise more recently (2021) up to -50% now apparently. TL:DR: There are always dips.


Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.

The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.

Personally I got to the point of not really believing a recession or otherwise will arrive, unless it actually does. Many bearish analysts were screaming about an impending recession in 2023 that never arrived, and while I'm aware these things can take time to play out, I think it's run it's course of occurring with much probability now that inflation is under control again (it seems). I realise you might not of been referencing a recession directly, but similarly macro-economics looking bad or "going a bit wrong" is again something that can simply occur any day or any week or any year, but rarely actually occurs. Predicting or anticipating these things seems even more difficult imo, the only ones who get it right are those who have been calling for a recession every week or month since 2008. Eventually, they get it right!

However saying all that, I wouldn't be surprised if "something" happened that very temporarily spooks the market in the next few months, as I feel Bitcoin will be very luck to avoid a black swan event leading into the halving (it's my most pessimistic scenario, and doesn't involve a low below $15.5K, but does involve coming close to around $19K). Either way I think it'd be a great buying opportunity, as generally Bitcoin and markets do look strong right now, even if they were to return to near the lows, there has been years worth of consolidation in order to support the price - alas I think making new lows has becoming very unlikely.
full member
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January 15, 2024, 12:16:13 PM
I cannot remember if you had stated some of your particulars Obim34 - yet even your forum registration date is not very far into the past, so if you are only recently starting to accumulate BTC, such as even less than a year, then from my point of view it can take a quite a bit of time to build up your stash in such a way that you should even be considering reducing your DCA amount, even if ATHs end up being reached in the next 1-2 years, and sure there could be some value in modifying your approach if it starts to seem that we are in blow off top territory, and so these are not easy choices in regards to how to manage the situation in terms of holding off buys or letting cash to build up in terms of preparing for dips that may or may not end up happening.
You mean my particulars, like in what term? Is it how long I have been accumulating my Bitcoin, my registration date on the forum can not be use to calculate the amount of Bitcoin in my portfolio, it might also be something worth it but  I still do not consider it enough for my holdings.

So you mean it's convenient to continue DCAing even after Bitcoin reaching a new ATH?
Exactly, you should keep continue to invest the same amount to get the desired result if you are following DCA, and the goal should not be the coming ATH if you really want to get the potential return, just accumulate the coins consistently and see how much your portfolio's value grew after a complete cycle.
DCA is a method that can be said to be a stress-relieving method for investing in Bitcoin. If you buy Bitcoin every 14 days or every 30 days, you will really make the price volatility that occurs in Bitcoin almost stable, as has been discussed a lot about the DCA method, it's simple, in the first purchase you spend $100 to get 1 and in the second purchase with a capital of $100 you get 1.5 and in the third purchase with a capital of $100 you get 0.75 from this simple example, you can see that you like buying bitcoin at a fairly stable price with a capital of $100 that is 1

The DCA method doesn't need to be tested again, what needs to be done now is to put it into practice straight away because many investors are currently making profits from using the DCA method and buying the deep.  and one thing is certain, that the DCA method is usually used for investors who want long term, not short time to accumulate expenses and profits.
legendary
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January 15, 2024, 11:22:53 AM
I cannot remember if you had stated some of your particulars Obim34 - yet even your forum registration date is not very far into the past, so if you are only recently starting to accumulate BTC, such as even less than a year, then from my point of view it can take a quite a bit of time to build up your stash in such a way that you should even be considering reducing your DCA amount, even if ATHs end up being reached in the next 1-2 years, and sure there could be some value in modifying your approach if it starts to seem that we are in blow off top territory, and so these are not easy choices in regards to how to manage the situation in terms of holding off buys or letting cash to build up in terms of preparing for dips that may or may not end up happening.
You mean my particulars, like in what term? Is it how long I have been accumulating my Bitcoin, my registration date on the forum can not be use to calculate the amount of Bitcoin in my portfolio,

Most important in regards to particulars would be how long you have been investing into bitcoin and some of the techniques that you might have used during that time to build your BTC holdings.  None of us here have been asking anyone to disclose their quantity of BTC, so frequently we speak in terms of hypotheticals... and sure some guys have described their own numbers but it is not necessary.  Even with myself, I change around my amounts from time to time, but I still tend to describe various timelines and various techniques that I had been using along the way, since when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013.

Timeline is a kind of important factor since many times, guys try to spout out various kinds of preferred practices whether that is trading or waiting for dips, and frequently we can compare their entry timeline and throw in some hypothetical amount for what their DCA might have had been, and it is up to them to compare if whatever technique that they had been employing would have ended up coming close to or even beating a straight-forward persistent and consistent DCA strategy... and even that takes time to play out.. maybe 4-10 years or longer, since anyone might be able to play some short term price waves for a while, but who cares?   

If in this thread we are mostly trying to emphasize ways that any of us might employ longer term techniques in which we are going to be advantaged 4-10 years or longer, then we should not necessarily be trying to count our results in the shorter terms, and surely we are not talking about trading here anyhow, so maybe those guys should go to some other thread to talk about those kinds of techniques.

If your technique might be giving you results in the ball park of a straight forward DCA strategy, then that is all likely fine and dandy, but still personally, I am not going to be very impressed with whatever you are claiming to be your results if you are bragging or whatever in terms of some timeline that is less than 4 years - absent if there might have been some specific reason that you ended up needing to either plan such a shorter strategy or maybe something unexpected (like health related) happened in your life that caused an emergency that may well mean that your timeline (such as death or incapacitation) would end up getting cut short if you did not cash out some or all of your BTC earlier than planned.

it might also be something worth it but  I still do not consider it enough for my holdings.

Well each of us has to decide how aggressive that we are able to be, so hopefully you are mostly comparing the performance of your holdings to your own situation, so if you are making your situation better by building a BTC portfolio, then it may not really matter very much if the amount is very much.  There have been plenty of times in which I have mentioned that even if any of us might be in the practice of saving 10% of our salary per year, it is still going to take us in the ballpark of 10 years to have had saved up 1 year worth of salary, so then within whatever saving/investing practice that we choose to follow, we should be attempting to figure out how aggressive that we want to be in terms of potentially providing ourselves with more options later down the road, and each of us should know our own particulars and timeline.

So you mean it's convenient to continue DCAing even after Bitcoin reaching a new ATH?

If you are earlier in your investing into bitcoin timeline, I would imagine that you are building your BTC stash, and trying to time ups and downs can take any of us out of such a mindset and practice of accumulating and building our BTC stash.  I personally do not recommend selling BTC or even stopping stacking BTC in order to accumulate more because of possible price dips that may or may not end up happening - especially for guys in the earliest part of their BTC accumulation journey.. Yet, at the same time you have to figure out these matters based on your own circumstances.. including considering the 9 factors that I mentioned in my other post.

So yeah, the first whole cycle in bitcoin (which would be 4 years) can be quite a dilemma that each guy has to decide how he is going to accumulate BTC if that is what he is striving to do, and it could even be the case that it is difficult for the first 10 years of investing in bitcoin or anything else while you are in the earliest stages of building your investment portfolio with bitcoin and/or any other investments that you might have, and if you might be trying to get to 1 whole year or even to end up getting to having several years worth of salary/expenses in your investment portfolio. whether you are starting out with bitcoin and cash as your exclusive holdings in the beginning and then at some point you might end up working into having other kinds of holdings or end up being more informed by your having had built up your BTC holdings to figure out what kinds of strategies you are going to employ to deal with bitcoin's likely ongoing inevitable volatility.

[edited out]
Because maybe they find your words good and they compare each years bitcoin performance. Also don't see any problem with it since I also think that valid observation especially to those people thinking about 2023 is good time to have some bitcoin since by year 2024 halving season is coming. 2024 is really promising since it might open up some great insights regarding what the future could bring that's why maybe there's a lot of excited people speculate and see your point as brilliant one.

For people didn't ride with the price action happened on year 2013,2017 or 2021 maybe they would surely participate on current event so let see if we can see some good price performance for bitcoin since a lot of people look forward for great things to happen this year.

Fair enough on your observation, and even if nothing related to BTC price performance is guaranteed, it does seem to be the case that we are entering into a quite good set up for ongoing good (or even great) future BTC price performance in 2024 and maybe even going into 2025 if there may be reason to continue to have some expectations to give some value to past 4-year cycle patterns.

[edited out]
Exactly, you should keep continue to invest the same amount to get the desired result if you are following DCA, and the goal should not be the coming ATH if you really want to get the potential return, just accumulate the coins consistently and see how much your portfolio's value grew after a complete cycle.

Some guys are still going to be disappointed if they invest through a whole cycle and then they see that they are barely breaking even, even after 4 years invested.  There surely are not any guarantees that you are going to be ahead after 4 years, and maybe that is part of the reason that 4-years is a kind of beginning timeline for the idea of employing long term investing of 4-10 years or longer. 

There is nothing really wrong with trying to time selling the top, but surely there are a lot of dangers in regards to that and then also potentially playing around with your whole BTC holdings during such a play.. especially if you are still in the stages of building it, so maybe getting through at least a whole cycle will help guys to have perspective regarding how to treat their BTC in terms of maintaining practices in which there are no needs to sell large amounts of your BTC, even though you may well choose to sell some of your BTC during the cycles, but if you are in the earlier stages of BTC accumulation, then you may well not be in a financial position to really be playing those kinds of games in which you are trying to time the BTC market.

There are folks who might have a lot more assets, so if they might have gotten into bitcoin in BIGGER ways (such as having large lump sums from the start), and they might be in a better position to try to play the BTC waves, but even if we might look at some large investors, such as Tim Draper buying around 30,000 BTC in mid 2014 (at around $600 per BTC), he ended up riding quite a few of the subsequent BTC waves and claims to not be in the practice of selling his BTC and/or trying to play BTC price waves, but instead mostly just holding his BTC through the various waves, and nearly 10 years later, he is going to have a lot more options in terms of those particular 30k BTC and selling those BTC whenever he likes, and not even really needing to sell very large quantities of them, and still being considerably into profits with those BTC at most feasible prices, whether we are in an up wave or a down wave, he still can shave off some of the BTC if he were to want to..

Overall 2023 was a good year for bitcoin and bitcoiners.
Yes, it's relatable to those who took the very opportunity of starting up their Bitcoin journey and also those who kept consistent in their Bitcoin accumulation. The market was open to everyone but not everyone seized the opportunity, so putting into consideration the way the market is moving it will also accept more investors, likely few months after the halving then we expect to experience an ATH, which may not be the perfect spot to hop in.
2023 was a good year for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners. I had the opportunity to join this forum in 2023 to learn about Bitcoin, and it has helped me to understand Bitcoin and also start accumulating Bitcoin with the DCA strategy at regular intervals. The DCA strategy has always been helpful to me when I'm accumulating Bitcoin because it helps me to take care of my financial needs. We are expecting 2024 to be better than 2023 for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners, because the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved last week, and the Bitcoin halving will also happen this year.
Yes I agree with you. I am new to Bitcoin. According to your information, the year 2023 was very good for Bitcoin and Bitcoin users. But for the last 7 days, Bitcoin has been going down, that is, the beginning of 2024 has not been good at all. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Review Expect Bitcoin to increase in value and halve within this year. I think 2024 will be a memorable year for those who use the DCA method.

We are only 2 weeks into 2024, and so far 2024 has been very good for bitcoin too, even if price performance has been a bit volatile, but who cares, especially if you may well be new to bitcoin, then you better be buying regularly and not getting too worked up about short-term BTC price moves.  But hey, in the end you can do what you like, including getting distracted by short-term price moves. 

[edited out]
Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.

The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.
It sounds like you keep praying for a dip that might not happen.  
Haha of course, with my strategy I'm always praying for a DIP!

But don't make it sound that the hypothesis about a possible recession caused my a macro-economic failure is not supported by factual basis. It isn't based on "prayers", ser. Simply data.

At least you admit that you are doing a lot of praying, and perhaps too much praying and not enough buying of BTC.

The Federal Reserve has two mandates,

- Maximum employment
- Price stability

Jerome Powell must accept that to serve one, he must disable the other. In most of history inflation was never truly curbed until unemployment rate surges, causing a recession.

I know that you have been ongoingly and persistently distracted by such Macro nonsense... and since when should we have gotten distracted into giving very many shits about what the Fed is doing?  Sure liquidity is a factor, but we still have bitcoin the three main factors that have ongoingly influenced BTC prices which is 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).

Hopefully you are adequately prepared for UP, and you are not regretting too much that you had ended up holding way too much cash in August, September and October waiting for dips that did not end up happening then, either... but hey, whatever, you do you.
My biggest purchases was during the year when I made this topic. Most of my savings until that time went into Bitcoin.

O.k.  I will create an example 8 from this information... instead of my earlier example 7 that had previously been meant to attempt to approximate what I was understanding your situation to be and what a DCA approach would look like in those circumstances.

Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.

Example 2: This person has the same monthly income, expenses and debt and emergency fund of Example 1, yet he had been accumulating BTC at about $10 per week in the last 18 months with $810 invested and about 0.0378 BTC accumulated (currently worth $1,625.40).  
 [...............]
Example 4: This person has the same situation as Example 2, Except that he both lump sum invested into BTC and started to DCA at $10 per week in the same way as Example 2, The lump sum amount was right around $2,200 and he got 0.1 BTC out of those early lump sum transactions.  Therefore, his whole BTC holdings is about 0.1378 BTC accumulated. (currently worth $5,925.40)
 [...............]
Example 7: This person has similar circumstances as Example 2 with a $10 per week investment into bitcoin, except his investment timeline goes back to May 2016 (rather than merely 18 months), so he ended up investing $4k during that time and accumulated about 1.04 BTC. (currently worth around $42,500). 

Example 8: This person has similar circumstances as Example 4 with mostly a lump sum investment towards the earlier stages of his investment.. and so there will be a bit of an assumption that the lump sum investment amount will have come from saving $10-$15 per week through most of 2016, 2017, and 2018  (so we will estimate be a bit generous and estimate the savings and lump sum amount to have had been $2,400), and so if the purchase of BTC was made based on BTC prices through out 2019, we might have to estimate an average cost per BTC around $7k, which would be around 0.32432432 BTC, and then if we presume $10 per week investment into bitcoin starting on April 1, 2019, (rather than merely 18 months), so the DCA portion of his investment ended up being $2,510 and accumulated about 0.15787 BTC, and so his total invested would be $4,910 (lump sum of $2,400 and DCA of $2,510) with a total amount of BTC  0.48219432 (0.32432432 + 0.15787). (currently worth around $20,493). 

So part of my point in showing example 8 is to suggest that a guy is going to likely be better off to include DCA into his investment approach, even if he might start out with a lump sum, and surely, even just getting started with DCA right from the start (which example 7 shows) would have performed even better results than example 8.

If there are some facts that I am missing, then let me know, yet I stick by my assertion that anyone new to bitcoin, should get the fuck started as soon as possible, whether that is strictly just DCA while trying to figure out matters, or maybe lump sum investing and then supplementing with DCA until reaching some amount of BTC accumulation that is comfortable for his situation or at least triggers him to adjust his approach. 

Surely, I have no problem with the idea of also holding some money aside in order to buy on dips too... but if the buying of BTC is quite regular in the earlier stages of BTC investing, there are going to be periods in which the BTC price dips and since DCA is already taking place, then buying at those lower dip prices would also be taking place under such dip conditions..

If I may ask with our disrupting this thread what is the main purpose of accumuting bitcoin for long term, cause if you are not selling When it's high and making profit or is there something I dont know about the long term investment in bitcoin and its benefits, cause I'm a little bit confused on why I should be accumulating bitcoin for long term if not to make profit.

In the end, you can do whatever you want, and if you get some kind of pleasure out of getting 30% profits or doubling your money, then maybe that will satisfy you, yet guys who are frequently taking profits will potentially disadvantage themselves in terms of longer term compounding of the profits.. .so if we think of longer term as 4-10 years or longer, then it is more likely that we might have been able to go through several compounding events, versus shorter term views that cash out more frequently.  For sure, traders run risks of timing their profit taking in bad ways too, and so it is not necessarily wrong to be a trader, but we are not really talking about those kinds of specialized dynamics in this thread - instead we are mostly referring to the kinds of strategies that anyone could take without necessarily having specialized knowledge of bitcoin price performance or even trading techniques. which are not easy skills to develop, even someone who might spend a lot of time attempting to learn and practice trading techniques.

Are they any hidden benefits of doing this.

It's not really hidden, but sometimes it can take a while to learn about what you are investing into, and some folks consider bitcoin to be amongst the best of investments available, if not the best, so it does not make a whole hell of a lot of sense to be attempting to fuck around with trading such an asset and then get caught on the wrong side of such a trade.  So, many times people do not recognize or appreciate what bitcoin is, and it could take many years to really come to appreciate what bitcoin is, so it is not really any kind of a secret, even though it can take some people longer than others in order to figure out what bitcoin is, and so many times, I suggest that people get started with bitcoin as soon as possible, and that is merely learning about one's own finances, and then they can also learn about bitcoin at the same time as they are investing and maybe they start out investing relatively small amounts but as they learn they might also develop confidence to increase their investment amount to become more aggressive..and those are individual discretionary choices..

I'm not a hater, I just want to learn, if purpose is not know then misuse is inevitable. I'm coming to understand how DCA works by going through the thread but, I don't see a place my dcaing ends for me to make profit.

If you are thinking about investing, then you can try to think about 4-10 years or more into the future and then potentially having more options... if you think in shorter time frames for profits, then you would have the option to take profits whenever you want to, but you may well end up not being able to benefit from compounding effects, especially if you are thinking in shorter time frames or even taking profits on fairly regular bases.  The choice is yours regarding whether and/or how to get into BTC.

I'm not looking for a get rich scheme in bitcoin accumulation. I just want to know the exact reasons that would be motivating everyone to hold for long without any sell plan.

Maybe you have not studied bitcoin enough to understand the value that bitcoin is bringing to the space in terms of a paradigm changing contribution that resolved the double spend problem and at the same time within a framework of digital scarcity.  If you don't recognize bitcoin's value proposition, then you might not understand it very well.

I just started investing in bitcoin last week with my first 10$ investment, quite small but its a start since my salary is small for now, I really want to catch up, but I need clarification on this since I'm.beign bothered about it.

Well, maybe you can continue studying bitcoin and investing at $10 per week, and if you start to become more confident, then you can increase the amount that you invest.  You are right that it would not be good to invest into something in which you do not have sufficient confidence, but at least your starting to invest will likely contribute to your being able to have some stake in the game and to potentially pay more attention in terms of learning what you are investing into.

Of course, I agree with you that DCA gives some better assurance that you will just spend in accordance with your cash inflows versus your expenses, so presumptively, if you are able to establish some level of steady cashflow, then you will continue to have money to buy each week or whatever might be the period in which you are applying your DCA buys.
Sorry for my immature question but with regards to lump sums, how does it really work. Does it mean buying in whole or huge investment even if not in whole ?

First of all, I fixed your quote. You should at least try to make sure that you are quoting properly.. or at least somehow identifying which member said the quoted materials (which it was me in this case).

Sometimes the meaning of the terms end up overlapping depending on how the practices are carried out.

I tend to use the lump sum term in the context of buying a bunch at once.

So for example, if I were to be new to bitcoin, and I had already saved up $1,200 that I was prepared to invest into bitcoin, I could just lump sum invest into bitcoin right away with that amount, or I might decide to divide it up into parts.. For example, I could put 3 parts in which $400 is allocated toward buying right away (that would be lump sum) and $400 would be DCA $25 per week over the next 16 weeks, and $400 would be allocated for buying on dips, so maybe I would have buy orders set up to buy $50 every time the BTC price dropped $500, so that would be 8 orders that go down $4k, and so if my first buy order for $50 was set up at around $41,600, then the next one for $50 would be $41,100, the next one would be $40,600 and the buy orders would add up to 8 and so the last one would go down to $38,100.

I gave an example, but you could have all kinds of variations on this depending on your expected cashflow coming in and your expenses, which maybe you might decide to ONLY divide the $1,200 into 2 parts with buying right away (which would be lump sum) with 1/2 of it $600, and the other half for buying on dips, and then you would DCA with your cashflow coming in for at least the next 6 months of $30 per week or whatever might be the amount, so if you are buying $30 per week, after 6 months, you would have invested $780 (26 x 30)... and then your total invested after 6 months would be $1,980.. and of course, you can make all kinds of variations on your plan, which also should include making sure that you have a sufficient and robust emergency fund, as we have also discussed several times in this thread.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 307
January 15, 2024, 10:49:59 AM
Of course, I agree with you that DCA gives some better assurance that you will just spend in accordance with your cash inflows versus your expenses, so presumptively, if you are able to establish some level of steady cashflow, then you will continue to have money to buy each week or whatever might be the period in which you are applying your DCA buys.
Sorry for my immature question but with regards to lump sums, how does it really work. Does it mean buying in whole or huge investment even if not in whole ?
You don't have to be sorry to ask questions because the essence of the forum is to advance the course of Bitcoin and at the core of that is learning. Most of us came here as novice to Bitcoin and the technology behind it, we learnt from this forum and we are still learning even while we are investing.

To answer your question, lump sum buying means buying with all the money you set aside to invest in Bitcoin all at once instead of dividing it to buy at different price points or different times. For instance, if you plan to invest $1,000 into Bitcoin, you can either decided to buy it at once or divide the money into five or ten parts as the case may be, then buy it in parts as you have divided. Each other the methods of buying have their advantages and depends largely on the person doing the buying. While some people will prefer this lump sum buy reason being that they don't have time to be looking at the price to know when it drops or they don't want to log in regularly or it could be that their job does not allow them access to the internet regularly like miners and fishermen. They could just buy with lump sum.

Some also use the DCA method which requires dividing the capital into several parts and then buy for each part weekly or monthly as the case may be. The most important thing to consider in any of the method is if the funds you are putting into Bitcoin will allow you have peace of mind. I mean, if you have settled your basic needs and also set aside some emergency funds so that you will not be forced to sell your Bitcoin when you did not plan.

sr. member
Activity: 224
Merit: 195
January 15, 2024, 10:42:30 AM
I don't care about short-term profits because I aim for short-term profits. If people experienced times in 2013 when the price of Bitcoin was still very low and rose very high in 2017, that would make them hold onto their Bitcoin again. They will aim for long-term profits.

If they invest in Bitcoin because of the ETF approval, they will probably sell Bitcoin when the price is over $60k but short of $100k. That has provided huge benefits for them. But they will regret selling too quickly when the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100k.

But that's okay because at least each investor already has a plan. They will continue to carry out their plan to get the biggest profit from investing in Bitcoin. Hopefully, we can still be patient waiting for the price to reach its new ATH above $100k so that the waiting time we are doing now can make us satisfied with the profits.
I feel lost on what you saying, you clearly stated you very into short term profit "  I don't care about short-term profits because I aim for short-term profits" and you also said "If people experienced times in 2013 when the price of Bitcoin was still very low and rose very high in 2017, that would make them hold onto their Bitcoin again. They will aim for long-term profits." you clearly stated both options which you choose for the short term but fully admitted the fact that long term investment gives better profits so why then would you still choose selling after a successive increase in price, not trying to convince tho, but our decisions should aswell be solid cos our main reason of investing in Bitcoin is to yield good profits and the long term investment can be the right choice.
sr. member
Activity: 1316
Merit: 422
January 15, 2024, 09:47:07 AM
Snip.

Overall 2023 was a good year for bitcoin and bitcoiners.
Although the economic conditions in 2023 are full of challenges, they stand out for Bitcoin compared to the previous year. Overall, 2023 will be remembered as a year that provided big profits for Bitcoin investors. The increase from $16,000 to almost $45,000 that occurred in 2023 shows that Bitcoin performed well during the year, an increase of around 180% from January to December indicates its potential for very strong resilience even in the face of significant global economic challenges.

Those who consider Bitcoin a speculative novelty have evaluated this perception after seeing Bitcoin's performance throughout 2023. The increasing interest of new investors in Bitcoin indicates a positive trend marked by major changes in investment in the following year. The profits earned by bitcoiners in 2023 have increased the interest of mainstream Investors to dive into Bitcoin, this change in perception will bring major changes to Bitcoin in the future.
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