Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 352. (Read 108514 times)

Bitcoin interfaces is actually very simplified these recent times. The wallets, exchanges and Apps where we use Bitcoin has got easier over the years and they are easy to use and navigate. You don't need to know every detail of something to use it. Most persons don't even know how their local currencies works. In my country people use Naira all the time without having a clue or the slightest idea on how the financial system works and how the government regulates the distribution of money. Only few people understand this over here but yet people still make use of fiat and the local banking system.

I think that people are just reluctant to try to get an understanding of Bitcoin. A week is enough to get some knowledge and start investing if you have the fund. Well, there is no reason to expect people to go into Bitcoin so easy, not everyone is that smart enough that is why I won't blame some person. It may take me two or three days to understand the Bitcoin whitepaper but to someone it may take them weeks.

Sometimes it seems to me that it is much easier for a beginner to make money on Bitcoin than for those who have been involved in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin for several years. Even I remember myself, at the beginning of my journey I just bought Bitcoin and did nothing else, because I was afraid of making a mistake due to the fact that I had little knowledge. The bull market began and the Bitcoin that I was holding rushed up. But the main mistake here is that I didn't take profit and then the bear market began. I'm talking about this because I was close to a great result, but I didn't take one right step. Some beginners can also buy and hold Bitcoin, at the moment when it grows to the skies, lock in at least part of it and become more successful. In any case, in words it looks simple, but in reality it is quite difficult to do this.

I don't think there is need to dwell on the price speculation because nobody knows what the price of Bitcoin will look like in years to come but one thing we are certain of is the good potential, so that should only guide us as our roadmap and motivation to keep accumulating Bitcoin.

Because nothing good could come out of trying to predict what the price of Bitcoin will be, because drawing those price timetable and if the price doesn't get to your speculated price it could cause you to start panicking and affecting your investment decisions.

Perhaps I don't know how the price speculation motivate you but I think that since you have known and believe the potential of Bitcoin you should just keep accumulating and leave the price to play it role.

I would say being conservative is the best choice and anything above is added bonus so I would like to stick with the 150K and that's the more realistic value too in my prediction.

Pie in the sky, really 2% chance at the end of 2025? JJG is being Too optimistic.

Even though I agree with you that knowledge is important for investment in anything,  it seems you are making the investment process overcomplicated. I don't think complete knowledge have always been a factor regarding investment in BItcoin because investment in BItcoin is an easy thing that can be done from the comfort of your home and requiring just little knowledge of how to receive and protect your coins. During the days of hype like 2021 when there was massive influx of people into Bitcoin, a lot of people started their journey within a week of hearing about Bitcoin. Within a week they had already gotten all the key  knowledge they need to start investing in Bitcoin, this shows how easy it is to start investing in Bitcoin.


It is important we make this clarification so that new people going through this discussion will not think that investing in Bitcoin is that complicated because it isn't.  It is more of a mentality something after the financial aspect have been taken care of. By mentality, I'm referring to the ability to invest without fear, greed and the resolve to give the investment time to yield profits.


 

Yes, I have already mentioned that the perfect time for an investor to invest is when he has enough knowledge about investing. Before starting any new job, the first step is to know about the job. If we are blindfolded and taken to a task which we don't know about before and if we go to the place of work and are asked to do this new task with our eyes open then how well can we do that task?  
Usually, when artists perform live in various concerts, they practice several times after the live performance so that they can present their performance perfectly. It is natural that if we try to invest without having any idea about investing, then we will fail there.  

People who say time and time again that they lose by investing, I think they have invested without understanding the concept of investment that they should have before investing.  

We don't need to know what is the perfect time to invest, we need to know how perfect we are to invest. After investment we have to go through many challenges if a new investor doesn't know it and after investment when he faces challenges he can't face those challenges even if he wants to.  
So there are new investors who are planning to invest and waiting for a perfect time to invest I would say to them first make sure how much you know about investment then you must invest.

That can't work all the time although it's the best ever, sometimes the price of bitcoin just continues to go up and you have the funds to buy, DCA can help you in that so you don't end up having to wait for months or years and that money stagnating from inflation. We can't predict the market so it's for the best that we adapt our strategies or just make more money in our jobs and save more extra money so we always have money when the price of bitcoin is low.

Actually those who are going to invest in bitcoin or are interested in investing try to buy bitcoin at dip price. There are many who didn't invest in Bitcoin when it was 26-27k, waited for the price of Bitcoin to drop further and then wanted to invest. The price of Bitcoin should not be expected to dip, one should expect the price to rise significantly. Bitcoin should be bought following DCA rather than waiting to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. If you buy bitcoins following DCA you can buy both low and high prices. So don't wait for low prices to buy bitcoins, start buying bitcoins from any moment. And should hold for long time to earn more profit. Bitcoin halving next year, so it can be said, Always Buy Bitcoin, and Hodl.

I frequently use terms like aggressive and/or overaggressive in terms of trying to be descriptive of how someone might attempt to manage their finances, and the better that they are able to project out their cashflow and their expenses and the more emergency funds that they have, the more aggressive they can afford to be without devolving into gambling or into a situation in which they would have to sell their bitcoin at a time that was anything other than their own choosing.  Surely, some people might misread what I am saying and even be sloppy in their own accounting  and believe that they are being "aggressive" when they are actually being reckless (which is more like gambling rather than investing).  It is not necessarily possible to save everyone from their own inclinations and mistakes that they might make if they misread aggressive to be something that devolves into a kind of gambling practice.

For example, there may be some guys who really can ONLY afford $10 per week at most, but they might decide to be overly aggressive, and maybe the could get away with $20 per week without recking themselves but just putting themselves into a lot of extra stress, but they might really end up fucking themselves if they were to do something like $50 per week because they simply do not have enough cashflow to cover their expenses and including various emergency expenses that could come up from time to time.


Besides the point of 1 bitcoin being a bit of an arbitrary goal and it might not even be necessary to focus on it, but the other aspect is that if someone believes that they want to get to 1 bitcoin, and if they ONLY have $100 per week, it is possible that they will never get to 1 bitcoin.. or maybe it will take them way longer and/or surely they might have to increase their amount invested into BTC.. but it still might not be a bad idea to create and maintain some goals, even if they might be somewhat aspirational and might not be reachable based on current financial/psychological circumstances, but there may be some anticipation that income might rise in the future, expenses could be cut and maybe there will be some dips in the BTC price or maybe BTC prices won't go up as much as anticipated.

Even someone investing $10 per week into bitcoin had some anticipation of reaching 1 bitcoin in a year or less because BTC was priced at $250 at the time, so $10 per week would result in $520 invested into bitcoin after a year... but even after the 2017 price rise and the dip in BTC prices in 2018, 2019 and 2020, it could have had been possible for a person to get to more than 1BTC by investing $100 per week, and maybe even gotten to several bitcoin.. We can see that someone who invested $100 per week for 5.5 years since June 2018 would have invested about $28,500 by now and would have gotten up to around 2.4107 bitcoin (worth about $89,200 in today's prices) until now.  

Or how about we add on an extra year and use your forum registration date and try to figure this out in terms of percentage returns of a steady DCA versus whatever else you might have attempted to do during the last more than 6.5 years.  We can see that someone who invested $100 per week for more than 6.5 years since April 18, 2017 would have invested about $34,300 by now and would have gotten up to around 3.8085 bitcoin (worth about $140,915 in today's prices) until now.. that's about a 4.1x return.  

I don't mind using my own date too, but let's just go along with the hypothesis that we may well would not have had needed to invest as much in order to still be able to reach similar kinds of levels of BTC merely from having had gotten in earlier.  So might would be almost 10 years, and let's go with December 1, 2013, and if we project $10 per week until now, then my total amount invested would be $5,290 and my number of BTC would be about 4.72 bitcoin (worth about $174,640 in today's prices) That's about a 33x return.    

By the way, I do frequently suggest that my average cost per BTC is right around $1k, so that almost matches up with my claim of currently having around 37x profits if we use $37k as our current price.

In the end, the ability to get to 1 BTC with a $100 per week may well be very difficult to achieve for those people starting right now, and they likely would need to have a higher budget or just to be more realistic in regards to the quantity of bitcoin that they expect to get over 5-10 years or whatever might be their accumulation goals.. and yeah, we cannot tell in advance what the BTC price is going to be so it might be a little bit of a fantasy land framework to be projecting potentially difficult to achieve quantities of bitcoin that you would like to achieve..and sometimes better to attempt to be much more realistic, even though there is nothing wrong with having both shorter term and longer term projections while realizing that there should be attempts for some realism in the projections.. especially the shorter term ones..  On a personal level, even if I might make some aspirational projections that I might not be able to reach, I would prefer to have projections that I know that I can reached mixed in there.


Well let's try to stick with the $100 per week level of investing, and so a person who figures out his finances and maybe struggles to make sure that s/he is able to invest $100 per week for 10 years would have had invested $52,000, and so if his/her investments end up doing well, s/he may well be able to outperform someone who might have had 2x to 5x more disposable income but who did not invest with his/her extra income.  I would consider that to be a kind of smarts, but there are still trade-offs, but any person can ONLY deal with his/her own situation, and s/he should not be getting overly distracted (or dissuaded) by the fact that some people might have way more resources.. including that the guy who has $200 or even $500 per week that he can spend on whatever he wants, but then he chooses not to invest, but the guy who has to struggle to get together $100 per week may well have ended up surpassing the guy who has more wealth.. because it stil might take the guy with more wealth some time to catch up to someone who both has accumulated assets such as bitcoin for 10 years and hopefully if the BTC had grown in value, then it will take the guy with higher income even longer to catch up and s/he might not ever be able to catch up.

Another thing is that once you start to have a decently large investment portfolio, you can sometimes end up using that in ways that you had not been able to use it when you were just starting out, so maybe the first few years are the hardest and it starts to get easier and easier as the investment portfolio gets larger, as long as you do not end up screwing it up somehow... and that is another place in which smarts come into place .. you need to try to be smart enough about your investment so that you know about ways that you could screw it up and you know how to attempt to avoid and/or to minimize your chances of screwing up your investment.

So you see with my investment into bitcoin I was able to get anywhere between 33x and 37x in 10 years, and surely I had been investing for more than 20 years prior to bitcoin and frequently I would ONLY get in the ballpark of a bit more than 50% price appreciation over 10 years... maybe slightly less than 6% of price appreciation per year on average... so gosh even doubling or tripling would have had been better than my historical performance in traditional assets.


There are going to be a variety of circumstances, so a poor person who has enough time to learn and to be persistent in regards to personal finances may well be able to get ahead of a lot of people, but at the same time, he is not going to get ahead of the person who starts off with a lot more resources and who is also driven in the same kind of learning direction and who also might have better access in terms of abilities to learn from the people around him.

I have my doubts regarding how much utility comes from attempting to compare and/or compete with others in that regard, even though surely some of us do even if we might do it in our own sly little ways without necessarily confronting the other people.. and sure in some sense we might be competing with ourselves in terms of figuring out how much we might want to be able to improve our own conditions without screwing things up by trying too hard.


It is possible to do much better to go all in (or to lump sum invest), but many people either do not have the capital to do that, and  sometimes they don't want to necessarily suffer various accounting (and maybe even tax consequences) to be moving value around in lump sums.  So DCA is more practical than lump sum, even though there could be several kinds of instances in which some forms of lump sum would be better for those who might already have the capital available.  the people with capital have more options, but it still does not necessarily mean that they would choose lump sum rather than maybe even combining lump sum with DCA and with buying the dip, even when they have the lump sum - let's say $12k in their bank account, versus the person who might have to invest $300 per week to get to $12k in 40 weeks.


Yes and if you consider buying the dip, then you can consider other methods of accumulating BTC too in order to figure out if you want to try to buy the dip or if you might want to use one of the other methods or maybe you will combine the different kinds of methods rather than just getting stuck in one that might not feel as comfortable to rely on ONLY one method of accumulating bitcoin..


You are kind of all over the place in terms of your logic regarding how you get to your numbers, and they are not unreasonable as one possible scenario... they seem a bit conservative scenario if we talk about the next ATH occurring potentially within the next 2 years... but yeah, the two difficulties of predicting price and predicting time, so we can attempt to predict each of them separately and then try to triangulate in order to try to get both which seems even more difficult.. so yeah, frequently it can be good to stick with ranges in terms of time and price...

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish:   $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky:  $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky:  greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%

Let me quote my following reply regarding the ATH may give a better picture of the discussion.


BTC may hit the New ATH before the ATH (less likely) or 6 months later and so on but what I concentrated on is that the growth of the next ATH will be beyond the current range and once we hit the range in price then we may never see the numbers in 5 digits so accumulate as much as you can now and it doesn't mean stop accumulating at any point.

Sometimes buying the dip is just a market slogan to encourage more Bitcoin accumulation for newbies who may not have gained any knowledge or experience of the market and how best to make DCA application most effective in whatever market condition at any time, and yes you are right we must not wait until dip happens before we accumulate more bitcoin, since as expert, we can easily make some short-term speculations of the market that can give us an advantage at any given point along the market situations, so yes, DCA makes the world around Bitcoin accumulation more accommodating for those who have the right market speculations approach and also having the spare cash to put away for a while.


So yes buying Bitcoin shouldn't be done only at a dip price but also in so e kind of condition where the price is not too high and not too low, but at average where Bitcoin buying is perceived to be the most appropriate time but that should be with a lot of guides in other not to get in at the wrong time were the price is already overpriced.

The best time to invest in bitcoin is when you think, to you a crypto investor would eliminate the idea of it. That's really impossible. I wonder who or where you got the idea from.

This advice of yours seems to be the weirdest idea I have heard so far in this forum because I don't think nobody in their actual sense would have this kind of mentality of yours, to advise their fellow bitcoin investor to eliminate the idea of buying bitcoin when it is low. Whereby that seems to be the best time for every bitcoin investor are looking out for, to buy more Bitcoin at a discount price and sell back at a high price.

I understand the explanation you explained, especially for someone, of course they will invest at the level of their monthly income and balance each of their income so that they can invest for a long time. And also agree that some of them invest for their old age so that the duration of their investment can walk 30 years or 20 years from when they started. I once saw a thread on Twitter where he was a farmer who had known Bitcoin for a long time. Maybe in 2013 and he regularly bought with DCA to accumulate it until he became one of the people who was quite successful in the investment journey he made in Bitcoin. But sorry I forgot to save the link.

So the conclusion that might be accepted and that we can implement in our investment planning is of course investing with money that will not be used for other purposes. Perhaps many of them consider it cold money that they invest in the long term. Maybe in long-term investment planning it sometimes differs in terms of the percentage they do, whether it's 10% or 20% of their income each month. For that I agree with what has been described.

In as much as buying the dip is an added advantage to your investment doesn't mean that is right to always wait for the dip to occur before you could start accumulating Bitcoin because one of the reason why most investors are missing out opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin is always waiting to buy the dip, to me is a very wrong investment idea because the opportunity Bitcoin price present now is more than enough proof that is the right time to keep accumulating because the possibility of the price dropping down is not certain and is likely not going to happen, so he who fails to utilize the opportunity now by accumulating Bitcoin due to there intention of waiting for dip before accumulating is obviously not ready to start the Bitcoin journey.

And, of course, the $27 worth of bitcoin from that 2015 article have gone up even more, and it may well be difficult for someone to figure out how to plan their bitcoin management when they had not even paid attention to the value of what they were holding for several years, and so now the same amount of bitcoin 5,000 bitcoin would be worth right around $185 million.  But yeah, did he sell all of his bitcoin in 2013 after discovering their value, or did he sell various bitcoin along the way, because even if he hung onto 1/10th of the bitcoin, he would be in a pretty good place right now with 500 bitcoin that would be worth $18.5 million.. but people who forget about their bitcoin have to somehow put themselves into a right kind of mindset that might involve some profit taking but perhaps management of the holdings through HODLing rather than selling too much too soon.


Just because a thread like this suggest that buying on the dip is a best practice or amongst the best of practices does not necessarily make it so.  Buying on the dip and HODL are a couple of strategies that might well supplement DCA and buying on dips... You likely are going to end up underinvesting if you don't play your buying on dip practices correctly, and sometimes it is better to just buy than to wait around for a dip that may or may not end up happening... and yeah, maybe the devil is in the details regarding how much of a dip is enough to buy BTC... I surely doubt that it is very easy to really establish any kind of meaning formula or practice in regards to buying on dips, but you can establish meaningful DCA strategies and even lump sum strategies can also be put into formulas... since they are measuring based on how much money you have rather than trying to figure out how much of a dip is enough of a dip in order to buy and then how much to buy?


I agree with you mostly on this, except the part where you believe that you know when the next ATH is goin gto be coming... Sure it might come, and sure it might not.. how would you know?  ATH could end up coming in a week or two or maybe a month or two... and yeah, definitionally, those would fit within your description of within a year.. but still.  Anyone claiming that their analysis has some kind of high level of probability seems a bit problematic, even though a lot of people do consider previous ATHs getting broken in less than a year from the time of the halvening.. and maybe even around 6 months after the halvening, so even though those kinds of price movements cannot be assured, we likely understand and appreciate that the cutting of the new bitcoin supply (issuance) in half ends up contributing to extra UPpity price pressures on dee cornz.


You seem to be talking about trading, or maybe even some form of attempting to balance out some of the volatility.  Whether you put your value into the dollar (or some other fiat) or into a stable coin, you are pretty much doing the same thing as putting it into the dollar, so that is almost a meaningless assertion to suggest that putting your value into stable coins is anything other than mostly trading into fiat.  As far as otherwise attempting to manage the volatility of bitcoin, I don't necessarily have any problems with that, except I feel a bit badly to talk about it since that really is not the topic of this thread except to the extent to which we might start to get into ideas about how to accumulate BTC in the various ways, and if there is some kind of an emphasis in terms of buying more BTC during dips there starts to become some justification of doing the opposite on the way up, and sure it can be possible to either cut back on DCA and/or to stop buying on the way up in order to better be prepared to buy dips, but then at the same time, there could be some self-authorization to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to use the proceeds to buy  back on the way down, but then people in those situations might well start to consider that they are just spinning their wheels, especially if they are in fairly early BTC accumulation stages.  It is not an easy balance to make or to resolve, but it does start to seem to be too complicated and even getting fairly far afield from the topic of this thread.

Price declines can always occur in the market because the fluctuating nature of the market will never disappear, but for now the bearishness has almost disappeared after a fairly good increase in Bitcoin and this has made Bitcoin holders happy even though on the one hand there are also people who regret it after just release it into the market. The recent increase in Bitcoin prices, or more precisely this year, can be said to be the beginning of the next bull run even though we have not yet arrived at the next halving.

When I saw a post by CZ of Binance “If you can't hold you can't get rich. Since then the word hold has become an important word for me. Because every investor wants to reach that dream place.

As easily as we take the word hold, many of us do not reach the level of mentality required to truly hold in reality. After buying Bitcoin and holding it, investors come across obstacles that they have to mentally battle. In particular, adverse market behavior can sometimes place a holder in a hostile environment. At that unexpected moment only those who can hold them with strong hands will be able to hold.

Moreover, we all know that behind every success there is some painful history which we can overcome to reach that place of success. Easy to hold but very difficult to hold for long term.

It is only when an investor battles with his psychological side that he has the opportunity to hold it for the long term that he is able to see the desired moment of Bitcoin. Investors must pay attention to emotional issues with patience in long-term holdings.

Let me remind you that DCA strategy doesn't give the guarantee for profits either.

Well, for bitcoin it worked perfectly and we discussed about the parting short term and long term goals in the investment will help more in accumulating the bitcoin than simply go all in for certain period which can be 5 or 10 years. But the current discussion is about buying the dip mean accumulating a whole chunk when the price is cheaper.


I am neither a wizard nor having time travel machine.

I just want to make sure that at least in my statement prior 300% which is purely based on a rough technical analysis of Bitcoin's price chart. Let me explain that with the 2017 and 2021 bull run scenarios the pattern is almost similar in the previous cycles too.

in 2018 Bitcoin ATH was about 21K before the bear cycle kicks in and in the next bull run the ATH was around 65K so it was three times or 300% higher than the previous ATH so let me apply the same to this as well and for the benefit of uncertainty I just kept the value to 2 times or 200% from 65K for next ATH so lets compare the current price which is 40K for the sake of calculation and if ATH will be 130K then users who bought at 40K will get 300%.

Well, its all speculation and there is no investment called guaranteed returns.

Although basically every individual has freedom in terms of Bitcoin accumulation and it does not rule out the possibility for them to do an aggressive way like you said with such an amount, but in my opinion it is not a good accumulation if they do a way that can suppress (force) them in terms of their finances, even though their goal is quite good to master 1 Bitcoin, but honestly I would not really recommend this method to anyone unless indeed if you are one of the conglomerates who have an income far above average and with a DCA of $100 a week is not at all burdensome and does not interfere with your basic needs then go ahead. But in my opinion on the other hand this is still not a good alternative, because obviously if we look in terms of time then it will still take a lot of time for you to achieve success to reach 1 Bitcoin, and also on the other hand time will continue to run, meaning that as long as you do this method it is very likely that there will be changes in the price of Bitcoin, if bearish dominates when you do this method until completion then it is a little profitable, But if Bitcoin is rising due to factors such as halving, it is likely that the amount of money you have to allocate will increase and with that means that in terms of time it will also definitely be longer if you put a flat amount ($100) on each DCA you do.


That makes sense, talking about someone who has wealth but does not have a higher education with someone who is highly educated but does not have wealth in terms of finance honestly this is quite confusing for me between having to choose which one is right and which is more appropriate to enter the Bitcoin accumulation according to the basic things that everyone should have in general when wanting to get involved in Bitcoin investment, but maybe we can see first from what type of education they undergo in their education, If their education is quite tied to what is needed by bitcoin accumulation as you say in terms of personal financial management then obviously they have the advantage of having insight into how to manage money, because indirectly it will make it easier for them in terms of their accumulation along with making it easier for them in terms of taking the best steps for budget problems that will be allocated to bitcoin with the circumstances and financial conditions they are experiencing.

So honestly I will not say that wealth is not important because obviously with you having enough financial strength you will also have a good chance in terms of accumulation, and also on the other hand I also will not say that education is useless, because obviously insight and knowledge, especially in terms of financial management, are very much needed to facilitate your involvement in bitcoin. So let's just find a middle point, for the problem of someone who has a higher education but maybe that education is not related to the financial field then I think it can still be utilized, I mean someone who is highly educated at least they must know how to learn well as you said, indirectly they have a broad enough insight in terms of learning, and with that in my opinion they will still be quite easy to learn the financial field along with how to learn well and properly, very different from people who are not educated, maybe they will not really know how to learn well in learning something they need. So the bottom line is honestly I quite agree with your assumption @jay that indeed those who are highly educated even though they may not be lucky enough to not have good finances but they have good/great potential in the matter of learning something especially financial management which will make it easier for them in terms of accumulation.

It is really difficult getting the perfect price to buy as you suggested. This is the reason I am applying the DCA method and will continue to encourage everyone that is confused as to what price to buy,  to continue to use the DCA method. This method takes away the worries that comes with know what price point to buy, your main target is to ensure certain amount at certain time you have set for yourself. It can be weekly or monthly or even as you deem fit. Being too concerned about the price to buy could be a source of confusion that may discourage you from buying, this is surely the best thing to do.

Do you know how high the price will go during the bull run? I'm asking because your statement of 300% profit for those who buy now suggest you are sure of what the price will be in the next bull run. Even when we expect price to rise so high in the next future, don't forget that  Nothing is guaranteed. This should always guide your decision make because no one is sure how things will turn out in the future.

Your statement can be a motivation to some people to take uniformed risk that they might end up being in a hurry to sell to recoup their investment. Bitcoin requires patients that is why we are encouraged to buy with such amount that will not affect our daily important needs.