Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 380. (Read 137493 times)

I disagree with you and I have my reasons. Beginners do not need to know everything about Bitcoin to be able to invest and make progress in it. Bitcoin investing, especially the buy and hold that we are discussing here simply require beginners to know how to buy, where to buy, how to store and protect their Bitcoin and they are good to continue their Bitcoin investment. These are no complex knowledge but something anyone who can operate a mobile phone can easily do.

I want to use myself as example, my knowledge of Bitcoin is highly limited but I'm already taking my investment in Bitcoin seriously and making progress already. As I'm also investing, I'm learning in the process and based on recently developments, I have learnt about the mempool, transaction size, BTC acceleration and many things I never knew before. Assuming I waited to learn all these before starting, maybe I would have still be copying notes without taking actions. Now that I learnt these new things because of the high fees, my understanding is better because the knowledge was need-driven.

I will encourage every newbie to simply seek the basic knowledge first and start their investment according to their financial strength, the full knowledge will come as you progress.

It's really important for beginners to fully understand bitcoin before they start investing in it. They should know what they want to achieve and the strategies that go along with the type of investment they want to make. Also, it's important to know that bitcoin is not something you can make quick money from so it's better to have realistic expectations.
I agree that it's not always best to only buy bitcoin when the price is low. Instead it's important to be financially ready to buy whenever you can no matter what the market is doing.

I think bitcoin information is a continuous process but the major one to start with is the basic knowledge and understanding of bitcoin, before a beginner invest in bitcoin he should know what he want and how to get it, there are many strategy for different investors it all depends on the category such investor falls into, there are newbies that has sufficient amount both for investment and emergency funds, I think this people should also know that bitcoin is not a short term investment so that their expectations won't be cut off.

Buy on dips should not always be the case, why not concentrate in buying when you are ready, must it be on dips, people should know that bitcoin is an asset no matter how dip it goes, it has never stop giving people hope of shifting to positive position, I think everytime is an opportunity in bitcoin that's why continues accumulation is the best irrespective of the price any day any time.

This is true, you can’t invest aggressively and expect to end up holding for long term it’s only those who don’t have investment plan that always end up investing aggressively and when you are following some investment analysts which don’t give you clue on how to stay safe in the market then you are likely to regret your decision, one of those who end up saying bitcoin is scam are those who invest all they have expecting it to turn into something big in them next few months which investment don’t work that way, you need to invest what you can afford to live without for long period of time allow the market to do his thing why you focus on other areas of life in other for you to take that big profit.

No one learns anything from the mother's womb. Circumstances and personal ambitions make him interested in the outside world. No one comes into a profession fully learned, one has to gradually acquire skills. One thing needs to be mentioned here if anyone can buy a fish from the market then understand when will gone and which better.
In exactly the same way how to buying and how to holding about cripto currancy there need not have no special knowledge.Only you have to know which board and what do you have to do. you have to know also how to secured his own wallet.

I actually disagree with you on that because aggressive investment is always not Adviseable because there is every possibility that you will get into trouble on the process, however when we talk about aggressive investment you are actually referring to investing all you have or majority of your capital on Bitcoin which is obviously not an investment advice, although we understand how potential and important investing on Bitcoin is but if you are not mindful you could end up on a tight corner.

Perhaps as a newbie who is just starting there Bitcoin journey I think the best way is not even to Lump Sum because he doesn't really no much about Bitcoin yet so the main focus should only to accumulate Bitcoin through DCA method because from there he will be free from some certain risk or missing out buying opportunities and also through the use of DCA he will now get acquainted with the ways of Bitcoin and from there he can now decide if he could utilize the Lump sum method and at the time continue with his normal DCA method.

Newbies should embrace the DCA method as if their  life depends on it. It should be their watch word, they shouldn't deviate from it. When you say they should be careful with DCA I don't really understand what you are driving at. As a newbie who is making your first investment in bitcoin, I expect your first buy to be in lump sum or possibly an aggressive buy in order to have a reasonable amount of bitcoin in your portfolio. Once this is done and the newbie is not satisfied with the level of his portfolio, he should embrace the DCA with all his heart and follow it. There is nothing to be careful about with DCA, as this method was carefully designed to give everyone a soft landing.  Also as a newbie you have no business with portfolio diversification, your primary target should be bitcoin. Don't go any any shit coins in the name of diversification and get yourself hurt at the end of the day. I won't deny that there are room for diversification, but this can only come in when you have spent a reasonable amount of years in your crypto journey and have better understanding of the market, but as a newbie this is not for you.

It seems that newbies should be more careful about DCA than experienced ones. Because the more knowledge the newcomers are in this sector they will be able to innovate new ideas that will bring more benefit to all.

Dollar Cost Averaging Method (DCA) is the easiest and recommended strategy for new investors because investing in Dollar Cost Averaging method is a systematic investment strategy. I think these days not only newbies are adopting this method but also many experienced investors and methods especially those who don't have huge amount of money.

The prices of different coins in the cryptocurrency market often deceive newbies with volatility, but newbies can reduce all that risk by investing in the dollar cost averaging method. Here are some steps that beginners should follow to invest in Dollar Cost Averaging method:

Beginners should buy regardless of market conditions. Dollar cost averaging method of investing in any coin or bitcoin requires beginners to buy a small amount of bitcoins every few days or weeks or months. Beginners should properly analyze the market based on their long-term value potential and then buy coin.

Adopting the DCA method from pay to bitcoin is definitely an important strategy. In any case, it is better to deposit assets in Bitcoin using the DCA method, because this concept is certainly realistic to build in the future. Individuals who adopt the DCA strategy will surely succeed by adopting the best strategy for the present. If someone wants to achieve success in cryptocurrency, then he must accumulate Bitcoin assets.

DCA investment strategy is one of the best known names in long term investment. There are many who invest in DCA method but do not know that they are investing in DCA method. For example an investor starts investing and at the time of starting he invests as much bitcoin as he can and after some time after investing he invests again it is DCA method of investment. Although this investor is investing in DCA method without having any plan to invest, but through that he is investing in DCA method. But the value of Bitcoin is never fixed so if an investor first invests when Bitcoin is worth $40,000 and invests again a month later, the Bitcoin will no longer be worth $40,000. Rather, at that time, the price of Bitcoin will either be slightly higher or slightly lower, if the price is slightly lower at that time, then if the investor invests at that time, a compromise will be made between the two investments, and if the market rises in that situation, the investor will have a profit.

When investing, we must accept that we may have temporary gains and losses after investing and must take it as normal. Since there can be profit in something then of course there can also be loss but waiting for that loss is one of the best qualities of an investor. People who invest must know about investment, if investors don't know about investment then they can't invest. Maybe some investors understand very well about investing and some investors don't understand much about investing, but if bitcoin is held in depth for investors, such investors with relatively little understanding can still invest and hold the investment. We should not change our objective after investing but we should have objective no matter how we invest so that we can work on investment retention.

In order to invest and maintain the investment for a long period of time, it is very important for an investor to have proper investment knowledge, enough patience, proper strategy, faith in investment.  

* Sufficient durability will help an investor to hold the investment for a long period of time and the investor will be able to be patient enough if ever bad conditions arise in the market.  
* If the right strategy is followed by the investor, there will be no mistakes in his investment and there is a possibility that his profit will be very high at the end of the specified period.  
* When the investor has confidence in the investment, no matter how much temporary instability is seen in the market, the investor will naturally hold the investment by trusting the market.

I provided an example of a guy who consistently invested, and he felt bad good and bad, and then in the end he is still starting to feel good, but even from this example, we cannot know how long it might take for you to feel good because there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to continue to perform how it has historically, and that is part of the reason that you have to continue to expect that it is possible that your investment will not end up paying off... so if your investment does not work, even if you do everything right, then don't come crying to me.. because each of us has to take responsibility and also realize that our investment might not work out, even if we end up doing everything correctly (or at least in line with the best of practices).

The drop in bitcoin prices is indeed a potential for us to enter and buy. So basically there is no need to think much when Bitcoin experiences a decline, because this is a good opportunity to maximize the final results. So what this means is don't think too much that after this decline Bitcoin will fall again.

But, I agree with you friend. If we want to invest in bitcoin, we all have to be ready to bear all the risks. Because behind the profits we can get from Bitcoin investment, there are definitely and it cannot be denied that there will be risks too. So in essence, when investing in Bitcoin, don't just look at the final results or profits that can be obtained. But don't forget the journey or process to get these benefits. Because currently the majority of beginners or those who are new to Bitcoin investment, sometimes don't really think about the risk factors.

But even so, what I feel and experience is that Bitcoin investment has very minimal risks. Because one of the factors that strengthens this is

• Bitcoin has a very regular cycle every 4 years.
  So when investing in Bitcoin, every investor always has hope. because they already know that when the Halving and bullish market come, the price of bitcoin always goes up.
• Then secondly, there are more and more users or investors.
  In this day and age, Bitcoin is definitely popular with young and old investors. Especially for people who are familiar with current technology. I think it would be very natural that in this digital era, bitcoin would be a very appropriate option for investment. So because of this, bitcoin will certainly become increasingly popular with many people in the world and of course the risk of the price dropping or bitcoin being destroyed is definitely very minimal.
• And finally, bitcoin can be an investment asset for anyone.
  So the point is not only to know rich people. But even for middle class people, Bitcoin is very suitable as an investment asset. So with more and more people being able to invest in bitcoin, it is certain that in the future bitcoin will be even more advanced.

So in conclusion, from these three factors, I can judge. That bitcoin has more good potential than bad potential. For this reason, the risk factor will definitely be very minimal. But even so, that doesn't mean we have to be careless, but we have to remain alert and be ready to accept all the consequences or risks.

I'm of the same opinion as you and I can actually recur my case when I started applying the DCA method as prior to that time, I had just little knowledge of Bitcoin and never in-depth. My knowledge then was just limited to knowing how to buy and store my Bitcoin and other minor knowledge that enable my find my way around it. The core technical terms were alien to me but I know that Bitcoin will surely be worth something considering where it was coming from. This was my biggest motivation to continue accumulating Bitcoin. The DCA method really made the entire thing easier for me, eliminating most of the entry challenges I was facing that most times make me miss buying because I was waiting for price at a certain point.

Full knowledge is something I'm working on while already being invested in Bitcoin. My financial commitment even make it necessary to inquire about  more things as regards to Bitcoin. I think, just like you rightly said, the DCA method is suitable for all financial classes, knowledge class and indeed all types of people who desires a more systematic approach to Bitcoin investment.

As a newbie, it is good to adopt the DCA strategy when accumulating bitcoin. Even though you are a low-salary earner, you can still accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy because you will set a day when you will be investing a small amount of your fund in bitcoin when you receive your salary, and you can be buying bitcoin monthly so that it will allow you to take care of your financial needs since you are a low-income earner. The DCA strategy will make you consistent in accumulating bitcoin because you will set a plan for accumulating bitcoin anytime you receive your monthly salary.

I agree with you, sir, that it would be impossible to try to learn everything before beginning to invest. A lot of lessons and strategies can only be understood through practice and experience. A novice may not even know much about strategies like dip buys or how to take advantage of dips, and in the process of trying to learn everything, they may become entangled in other information that diverts them from the fundamental knowledge of investing, which is the DCA method, which is simple to use and the only beginner-friendly strategy that logically supports low income.


I believe that if someone starts investing, figuring out the other requirements won't be too difficult because we have to attend class before learning those lectures. Therefore, I believe that the first step, even before learning much, should be to start with DCA and accumulate emergency funds; the other benefits of being a bitcoiner can be discovered later.

Sir I really do appreciate your effort in explaining this to me, I do feel there is a lot of practice I need to do in other to ask more in-depth questions 😊 and fully understand you better, and yes DCA would continue to be my best for now cause of the way I play around with it, it's so flexible and that's the reason I am able to understand some thing you teach, I can never neglect the place of emergency funds, reserves and floats cause just like DCA they are the backbone of every investment and are needed for our investment to reach a stage of maturity and expansion.
It is also true when you said about how I'm trying to rush things, but I also feel that I might not be feeling to well now because of my stach and hence want to accumulate more, but when my investment has gotten to 2-3 years of income allocated I would definitely start to feel good about, sharing your testimonial and how I've seen other people feel good about their holdings makes me want to even hold better and I can only say for now..... DCA would ever remain my beat strategy.

I agree that it is good to learn those various areas, yet at the same time they can be learned as you go rather than prior to getting started.  Anyone can get started investing into bitcoin with bare minimum knowledge, and they can invest $10 per week while they figure out more specifics, including honing in on their own budget and financial management.  

Now off the top of their head, even if they are not very good at finances, most people have ballpark ideas about whether they can afford $10 per week or not.  Now they might not know how to manage their budget, and they might have a lot of debt and they might be having emergencies every month or maybe several times a year because they are not sufficiently spending lower than their income and/or keeping track of their cashflow versus expenses.. .but these are things that people can improve, even while starting to invest into bitcoin.

Now if they are not exactly clear about the level of their disposable income, they may need to get  more specific ideas prior to starting to invest more aggressively into bitcoin, such as increasing their investment to $100 per week or performing a lump sum investment of $5k... so the more aggressive that they choose to be, then the more they are going to need to know, and also if they build up their investment amount, then the more that they have invested, the more they could end up getting tempted to cash out at the wrong times or to engage in gambling behaviors rather than investing behaviors.. so most people can learn those kinds of things as they go, even though sometimes they are their worse enemy by doing before knowing.. so if the amounts are small enough, then it might not make a BIG difference, so that would mean that they have their risk management under control by not investing very much, but they may fail to realize their potential because they are not being as aggressive as they could be, including likely needs to pay attention to their whole cashflow situation and to make sure that they are spending reasonably within their discretionary income while maintaining some kind of an emergency fund, float and reserves. which becomes even more important as the investment into bitcoin grows. including accounting for the price changes that bitcoin can go through during the period in which someone is starting to invest into it.


Well the post that you quoted has a link contained in it:

>>>>which truly are the kinds of things I try to argue within my sustainable withdrawal framework.<<<<

so it may be more appropriate to talk about those kinds of questions within that thread rather than here, but the basic idea is that once we reach high enough levels of BTC accumulation, then we might start to feel that we are in a position to either just stop accumulating.. or we might move into the employment of various withdrawal frameworks that might be price based or they might be time based, and there are likely ways to construct the withdrawal approaches in such a way that you can start to live off of your BTC and perhaps not even needing to buy anymore BTC.. yet at the same time, part of the question would depend upon how much is enough, and have you structured your withdrawal in such a way that it won't deplete the quantity of BTC at a rate that is higher than its growth.  

For example, if we use the 200-week moving average as a way to measure the value of our BTC holdings, then we can see that historically (up until now), the 200 WMA has never increased less than 20% annualized, even though it's worst performance, so far was between June 2022 and November 2023 (and you can see that in my entry-level fuck you status chart), so it is not guaranteed that the 200-week moving average will continue to go up at least at the same rate as it has historically, the 200-WMA is also a delayed indicator, so there do seem to be ways to use it to our advantage, and even part of my theory that BTC may well be able to retain a higher withdrawal rate (6% to 10%) than traditional investments (which are usually at 4% annually), but if we are still concerned about the growth and/or maintenance of our BTC, then we might want to stick with a 4% withdrawal rate and to continue to allow our BTC value grow until maybe we might start to feel like increasing to a more aggressive rate.. perhaps gradually increasing the rate and monitoring the extent to which our BTC is sufficiently holding its value with our employed withdrawal rate.

Of course in this thread we are focusing on BTC accumulation, even though we likely have some ideas of target levels that we would like to reach, but we still might not have confidence in terms of how much we think that we need, so a lot of times, if we know that we are a long way from reaching our BTC accumulation target level, we continue to push in the direction of getting to a high enough level so that maybe later down the road, we might also start to be able to use BTC as a source of income, rather than spending it all at once - which is also a potential legitimate goal, but probably not as empowering as having an ability to continue to hold onto a lot of our coins and just to cash out little by little and continue to enjoy the benefits of compounding and exponential growth that is likely to continue to happen with bitcoin so that we may also may be preferring to spend from other sources of income prior to spending our BTC, even though our BTC could supplement any other sources of income that we might have at the time that we might start to withdraw value from our bitcoin holdings.

From the way I see it, it seems anyone could invest in bitcoin for any reason of their choice whether I would be as lame as trying to use the moni for a luxury trip or even going sky diving, and from the way I feel I could set a goal that would motivate me to even invest and hold more, liek buying my favourite house or even oweing a mega hair salon, I used to thi k it was limited to a certain kind of goals, since you know we are talking about investment, so I was expecting some strict reason to do it. But now I feel more free around my investment.

Wow that's new,  Do you mind explaining what sustainable withdrawal framework is?

Of course, you could invest for a specific purpose (something that you would like to buy at some point in the future), or you could invest in order to have an income stream that you could draw upon in the future, whether it be to completely support your lifestyle or if it might be used to supplement your already existing income.  There could be goals to stop working or there could be goals to be able to choose the kind of work that you would like to do. Money and/or an income stream has the potential of increasing quite a few options and even over a long time horizon, especially if you manage it well, which truly are the kinds of things I try to argue within my sustainable withdrawal framework.


You can approach your strategy in such a way that it attempts to prepare you for a variety of scenarios, and part of your preparations would have to do with your position size and how much you might be holding back and keeping in your emergency fund, your reserves and your float, and sure after you have built bitcoin to a certain size of let's say 1-2 years of your annual expenses, then you might start to invest in other things too.. and no one can really say what might be good investments for you besides bitcoin and cash, and if you are not really sure about it, then perhaps you would not need to make any adjustments - even though at some point you might start to feel that you have too many eggs in one basket, so you might feel that you need to research into the matter of figuring out how you might invest in some other kinds of ways, and hopefully balancing your supplemental behavior sufficiently in order to not get distracted into something that might ONLY need a 5-10 allocation. that might even take you several months or even several years to build a position in some areas that are meant to supplement your BTC and cash holdings... For example, you might start to think that you have to hold so much cash and maybe you should put some of that cash to work in other kinds of things, whether equities, properties, commodities, bonds, or something else.. and i am not referring to shitcoins, even though some people might consider something that seems shitcoin related as a place to put some value.. hopefully no more than 10% of their bitcoin holdings..
 

 Of course, if you prepare for several scenarios, but then something other than your preparation ends up happening, then you are going to feel disappointed that you were not financially and/or psychologically prepared for such scenario... . so personally, I am not saying to put a lot of effort into your preparations for every possible scenario, but sometimes some ways that you prepare could actually end up simultaneously preparing you for several kinds of scenarios. .. and yeah, sometimes you have to go through some of the scenarios or to go through some of the preparations in order to some of the ideas to make sense because sometimes preparing in the hypothetical does not really make as much sense until after you might have taken some action and interaction and specifically witnessed how some of your balancing is going...

So for example, if you speculate that after a year in bitcoin, you would have invested $5k into bitcoin and $5k into your emergency fund, reserves and float, and so after the year goes by you can review your various actions month by month and you can see how much you were able to accomplish.  Were there some shortfalls? were there some windfalls? Did you make some mistakes?  Should you make some adjustments?  Have your conditions changed in terms of your income and expenses and how does your investment into the various parts of you investment portfolio affect your comfort level.  Are you going to do the same thing the next year or are you going to make some adjustments.

Let's say in year two you decide that you are going to keep your emergency fund, your reserves and your float between $4k and $7k, so there are ways that you can play around with that, but since you are already within your target range, maybe the next year you end up investing nearly $10k into bitcoin and then at the end of the year your emergency fund, your reserves and your float is close to  $6k.. and you figure that even though you have build the overall amount in both sides of your investment fund, but you can see that your BTC has gone up and down in value.. and maybe it could have even ended up going up several times.. but how much it goes up or down could affect your strategy too... but then you realize that through the year your emergency fund moved between $3k and $5k, your reserves moved between $0 and $3.5k and your float also moved between $0 and $4k.. so you might even see at that at certain times of the month you had total balances of funds that was close to $8.5k  but that was usually after getting paid and then there were certain low points every month too.. and sometimes you were down to around $4.5k. so you can see patterns.. and you can see how your bitcoin holdings did too.

Maybe after assessing your portfolio each year for 5 years, then you get to year 5 and you see that you ended up investing close to $50k into bitcoin, but maybe the value of your bitcoin had been as high as 5x higher than your investment amount and other times it had been in the negative and maybe it is 3.5X higher at the end of the 5 years, and you look at its value in terms of the 200-week moving average and you compare the 200 week moving average to the spot price... surely we would not be speculating that you had been able to accumulate a whole bitcoin in ONLY 5 years, so maybe you had only accumulated a bit more than 0.5BTC, and also during that whole 5 year period, you had continued to play around with your emergency fund, your reserves and your float, and you consider that you had fluctuations between $4k and $12k in those funds... but you end the 5 year period with your emergency fund, your reserves and your float that are around $7k.

In the end, specifically what happened in various parts of your funds and how you handle those happenings can not only be tests for you, but also inform you regarding how to proceed and maybe to correct some of the mistakes that you made in the process.. and it is difficult to really know in advance, even if you had projected a variety of possible ways that these matters can go, the actual specifics in performance in regards to where you are at at any time that you are making adjustments to your plans can also make differences in regards to what is reasonable to do.  And, yeah, maybe I painted a rosy picture, but you had ended up making some fairly BIG mistakes at various points, and maybe your own particulars end up not looking as good as how I had outlined your particulars to be.

Some specific actions can sometimes make pretty big differences  in outcome, and sometimes you don't realize at the time, so for example, if you had some kind of an event or "opportunity" along the way, so you decided to sell some of your BTC in order to take advantage of a "business opportunity," and sure the investment could have worked out or it might have caused a lot of your potential progress to end up going down the drain, and we are not necessarily going to know in advance regarding how you are going to deal with various choices and whether your actions are going to end up improving your performance or making your performance worse, and really if you are saying that you just want a successful life then maybe we might not be able to measure your progress at year 5 and we have to see how some of this plays out at year 12 or year 16... to see where you are at at that time... even though you can  make various assessments along the way that are based on specifics regarding what you are doing, and various things happening in the markets and also things happening with your income, expenses and your investment choices.


So far they have occurred, so they should be accounted for, but they are not guaranteed to continue... but you might feel pretty dumb if you made plans that did not even account for them continuing to occur. .and personally I consider them to be one of the most important things in bitcoin, especially since 2018/2019 these have been framed as 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer)


Even if you invest a small amount, you might feel that you are missing out on having some fun... and those are some of the trade offs in regard to investing and part of the reason that so many folks fail/refuse to save/invest because they have trouble delaying some of their gratification.  It is tempting to spend money when you have it rather than setting it asside for extended periods of time, and that is also one of the reasons that even if people invest, they still fail/refuse to put themselves into a situation in which they are able to profit from the compounding and exponential effect.. because they end up cashing out too much too soon because they cannot help themselves when they want to buy that new car, go on that vacation, buy that nice house, invest in that business.. etc etc etc.


Sounds like you understand the idea, so it is a matter of putting theory to practice and trying to have fun with it, even though it can take a long time to play out, it can be fun too.

Think of the guy who invested $7.9k between 2018 and 2020 (investing $50 per week), he might have had felt kind of bad during 2018 and even into 2019 and even during parts of early 2020 he felt pretty bad during the March 2020 crash..

So by the end of 2020 he had accumulated a whole BTC, and he started to feel really great during 2021, but maybe not so great during 2022, but during 2023 and into early 2024 he is feeling pretty damned good again, and even if he continued to invest at the same $50 per week rate during the whole time and maybe in the second 3 years he only accumulated 1/3 of a bitcoin but he is currently at 1.34175 BTC with nearly $16k invested, so he is feeling pretty good about all of it, and sure maybe he was not consistently $50 per week, so if his specific performance had varied from what he could have had gotten in employing a DCA strategy, then maybe he needs to reconsider if he should change his strategy - however at the same time, if he feels that he is on a good path, he might just keep with $50 per week or maybe he might feel that he is doing well enough in his investment he might want to increase his weekly amount to $100 per week or some higher amount, even though he probably would have had been better to increase earlier on, but sometimes people will kind of just get caught in a pattern and even some people use automatic weekly buys rather than doing them manually, and either way has its advantages and disadvantages, my personal preference is manually in order to engage with and to monitor my investment more, but some people don't want to (or can't) have that much involvement with their investments..