Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 389. (Read 108368 times)

Yeah that's just the only way for beginners to progress while focusing on accumulating Bitcoin, I no that there are numerous strategy used by different individuals about accumulating or trading but for the purpose of this thread lets avoid information overload were as the beginners whom are trying to adapt to DCA strategy will get confused on the one that will be best suitable for them.

So perhaps we should focused more on strategies that could work for us through holding because DCA strategy has been a game changer for those who understand it, there is a saying that, it doesn't matter how fast you were able to enter the market but what matters is how well you have achieved from the market, most person jump into accumulation with the plans to invest all they have so that they will have a higher amounts of Bitcoin more than other people and before a month they have ran out of funds and leading them to sell off there accumulated Bitcoin on a discount, but in DCA you don't need to competite with anybody because DCA strategy is something that involves slowly accumulation but the out come of it in the future will worth something to write home about.

From my understanding, you are suggesting short term trading otherwise called scalping. Well, I will never recommend this to anybody as long as Bitcoin is concerned because there are high chances it will end in pain. How can you take risk with Bitcoin that can move over $2000 in few hours? To me this is outright gambling with odds already against you.
I have seen several people fail trying to do this even those using sophisticated softwares. So it is not something I will ever recommend for anyone.

It is always better we focus on what is easy and generally workable for as many people as possible. From the discussion in this thread, a lot of people are new to this entire thing so we have to guide them properly to avoid mistakes. That being said, let's focus on long term strategies that will ensure people buy and give the market a chance to yield profits.

You have said it all. Assuming he dropped that comment in the trading discussion thread, I wouldn't have objected but since we are discussing long term investment here, it is a kind of distraction. Like I said before, Let the focus be on DCA and other long term strategies.

You gotta be careful trying to spend too much time trying to persuade others to buy bitcoin when they do not understand and/or appreciate bitcoin's investment case irrespective of what you are doing yourself and what you are telling them.  In their minds, they believe that you are the crazy one.

I frequently tell people that everyone should get at least a little bit of bitcoin and even start out with a small amount, and even if I know them well enough to know that they could easily afford $100 per week, I will tell them that $10 per week is better than nothing, even though they should be spending $100 per week.. but whatever, they have to do what they want or what they believe is right for their own situation.  And, sometimes, I will also suggest that even though it is good to get started with some kind of bitcoin buying routine and even to commit to 4-10 years, I don't really give any shits about what they do .. it is their choice.  I will tell them that they probably will end up buying bitcoin later, but it is likely going to be at a higher price.. but whatever, at this time they believe that it is not going to help them, even though it is a great hedge against a lot of the injustices in the world in regards to the governmental abuses of power in connection to the money printer and the ongoing degrading of the money, which they cannot do to bitcoin and bitcoin will benefit from the government's ongoing desperation to print money and their irresponsibility.. and bitcoin does not do those kinds of things.

You can also ask them questions about their own investments, but also that might not help and frequently people do not like to talk too much about their financial details, but sometimes if you can frame the question in delicate ways in which you are not necessarily asking specifics, then at least you might have some ideas about what they invest into, if anything.. or if they are just struggling and they hardly have any extra cashflow, even if they do seem to go on elaborate vacations a couple times a year... and of course, those are choices that people make.. in regards to how much they are spending and if they could end up saving/investing more than they do.


I still believe that you are underestimating bitcoin's power, and bitcoin already reached more than $1 trillion market cap last cycle, which was around $55k.. so if bitcoin gets to around $280k, then it will be a $5 trillion market cap.. and about 1/2 of gold's market cap.. so many folks already know that bitcoin is better than gold and the fact of the matter is that bitcoin is likely 1,000x or more better than gold, but I doubt that gold is going to completely lose its market cap, so there could be a variety of ways that bitcoin reaches some of its fair market value by getting to be 1,000x the price (market cap) of gold, yet it could happen in 20-50 years or maybe it will take longer, even 150-200 years to get to that kind of relative pricing.

Anyhow back to my assertion that bitcoin is not a mature asset class or a mature value, and in that regard, you are underestimating bitcoin if you are merely considering that it will go up 10x from here and then stabilize, when ONLY about 1% of the world's population is actually invested into bitcoin at this time, and perhaps even those who are invested into bitcoin do not even realize the extent to which they are underinvested into bitcoin, so bitcoin is still a very immature market and there are still a lot more people to come into bitcoin, and network effects and even metacalfe principles are going to continue to justify that BTC values (and prices) continue to go up exponentially with the playing out of those kinds of networking effects and metacalfe principles.

I completely agree with your observation that choice of historical data can significantly impact the assessment of Bitcoin's correlation with other assets, as different time frames can yield varying results. In this context, I might be mistaken but I think the time frame from 2015 to 2021 holds particular significance, as during this period Bitcoin became well known through the media and prominent financial companies like MicroStrategy invested in it, which led its value skyrocketing.

While I could be wrong; it seems that the ongoing unfair advantage of Bitcoin over other asset classes is a significant factor that makes it an attractive investment today. this trend is likely to continue until Bitcoin reaches a more substantial market cap, perhaps $5 trillion or more, which would contribute to its stability as an asset and reduce volatility.

Is never a guaranteed to make money from volatility, in as much as volatility is concerned the chances of making money is not certain, when we talk about volatility we are referring to price fluctuations moving up and down, however there are chances of you losing out your funds while trading volatility so we shouldn't always see volatility as an easy way of making money it doesn't work that way.

You can never compare DCA strategy and trading volatility because DCA is not established for day traders however it was brought to help people especially the beginners on how they can minimize risk and accumulate with the little funds they can afford.

I simply don't understand you statement in bold letter Falconer. How will hodli affect bitcoin. Bitcoin price is being affected by demand and supply, this was where you thought that you are making a point which made you think that JJG is not 100% correct but the fact remains that JJG is 100% correct than you, from what you said. Long term investment is the best way that one can get profit from bitcoin based on the size of your portfolio and this is why DCA method will give you a bigger chance of increasing your bitcoin portfolio gradually. This was what JJG was saying and also it was the same thing that you said.

Don't bother wasting your time trying to convince anyone to invest in bitcoin if they don't buy the idea, as there is nothing that you can do about it, since they are adamant to understand what you told them. This means that they don't have the interest of investing in bitcoin and to adopt new technology, and if you want to force them, it might be that you want to scam them. The time is coming that they will regret their refusal of not listening to you and invest, and they will blame themselves for this, just like the way some newbies and old forum members were regretting that they ignored investing in bitcoin during the early days of bitcoin.

Although some of them think that Bitcoin is too expensive, it is a stupid mistake that they have thought. I had a chance to chat with several people where I live discussing Bitcoin investment. But they firmly said that Bitcoin was too expensive for us and we were no longer very interested in Bitcoin investment. I explained in detail but they still answered like that. Can any of you provide stronger encouragement for me to convey to them that Bitcoin investment is the best investment at the moment and does not measure the price because Bitcoin supply is limited. Maybe I'll wait for your explanation.

However, I still adhere to my stance that I will continue to accumulate Bitcoin at every stage because I don't really care about empty talk from out there. Because we will take advantage at some point in the future for what we have done in investing in Bitcoin. They are stupid not to learn and even more stupid not to invest in Bitcoin.

I started out in my response to your post by looking at the bolded part, and I did not see anything controversial with that statement and/or any disagreement between us..

so maybe we are not clear about what each of us is saying.

I had largely been attempting to say that the longer that you invest in bitcoin, then the more likely that your BTC holdings are going to be in profits in terms of their dollar value, and maybe your BTC holdings would go up and maybe they wouldn't depending on if you continue to buy bitcoin after your initial purchases... . but the mere fact of buying and holding bitcoin for a long time is likely to put you into profits, especially if that is all that you do with your bitcoin.. as contrasted with trying to trade them.

So I was largely just elaborating on the expression "time in the market is better than timing the market."

No..no, wait a minute, You have to look at the points I have bolded in your post. I mean, buying bitcoin and holding them for the long term is a profitable approach for investors or holders, but it will not be profitable for bitcoin. Am I interpreting it the wrong way?

I completely agree that a long term holder still may not be able to make money from their investment if they they screwed up their ways of securing their bitcoin. But that's not something I disagree with in your post and I already explained it in the first paragraph.

I don't mind if you disagree with me. 

We have more interesting discussions if people do not necessarily agree and if they are trying to make points that they really believe to be true.. so which part of what I said is disagreeable?

I know that mistakes can be made.. so if someone buys BTC and tries to secure BTC for the long run and they are in bitcoin for several years, maybe even a couple of cycles, so they have a lot of money, maybe even 20x profits, but if such longer term BTC HODLer/accumulator person does not know what they are doing, then they may not end up making any money from their having had been in BTC because they screwed up their ways of securing their bitcoin.. is that where you are disagreeing with me? or something else? 

Another thing could be that past results does not guarantee future results, so I know that, even though I did not say it.. but frequently we cannot necessarily say all things inside of each post, even though from time to time, I try.

I agree with 99% of your opinions, but 1 percent of them don't. I mean, it should be a profitable approach for investors or holders instead of bitcoin. I certainly know what you mean, but sometimes small mistakes can raise questions and lead to invalid understanding.

So far I have avoided trading as much as I can, it is the reason why I was able to invest and become a holder. From experience, trading sucks and it has dashed many of my dreams just because of lack of emotional control. Of course I don't want to discuss further about trading, that's just a discussion that is not good in this thread. Come back to the topic.  

There are no guarantees in bitcoin.  Even if you use the term "pretty much" that is too high of expectations to be acting like you are guaranteed to profit, which is not true.

Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet to the upside, so you have good chances to be able to increase the amount that you invested by more than the amount that you invested.. while at the same time, it is not guaranteed to go up... but if you lose,  you will only lose the amount that you invested.. so it surely should be a good reason to invest into bitcoin knowing that it could go either way, but if it goes down, you are ONLY going to lose the amount that you invested... so be careful not to invest more than you are willing to lose.

Yes, you can still make decent money when trading the volatility of bitcoin, but it is not a safe and recommended approach if compared to DCA. I see day to day trading with high volatility as gambling. But when it comes to DCA its totally different. The risk is less and yes you might be accumulating Bitcoin slowly, but you will surely meet your target. The special benefit of Dcaing in Bitcoin is that if you buy and hold, you are pretty much guaranteed to make lots of money in the long term.

We are not talking about trading in this thread, so trading may well not be a way to have any honeypot with bitcoin especially since the vast majority of traders suck and historically buying and holding bitcoin has proven to be a quite lucrative approach to bitcoin and there is no real evidence that buying/holding has changed as a good approach to bitcoin.. which you seem to somewhat understand from the contents of your post... in which you are recognizing the current period as a likely dip period.

Of course DCA strategy is mostly for long time holding so I see no reason why price movement or volatility should be considered while using the DCA, it is well known that DCA method is for slowly accumulation either daily, weekly or monthly and also the possibility of the price to remain the same as the first buying point is not guaranteed so if we should consider the price before accumulating it may seriously affect the strategy, so irrespective of the price of Bitcoin DCA strategy can never be affected because DCA goal is not for short time holding but for long time holding.

More volatility means more opportunities to trade. So if you are really good with your trading skills then you can use this as your honey pot. The bitcoin market is not boring unlike stock and forex where the price movement is nominal. If you can manage your portfolio and take calculated risks you can be profitable. If you can't read the chart then buy and hold bitcoin for a few years. You will be profitable as well and we are sitting at the perfect time to invest in bitcoin.

The response to this is not far-fetched. Cast your mind back to 2020 market behavior due to the pandemic, what was the response of Bitcoin to that? While several assets crashed including big stocks but that was the beginning of the bull run for Bitcoin. What does this tell you? To make it simple, when every other things else fails, Bitcoin will will always survive. I have the strong conviction that Bitcoin will even enjoy strong growth even if there is a global market crash.


To me, until the next halving, Bitcoin may not reach the all time high. This mean that the price of Bitcoin is considerably fine now to buy. Those who want to take advantage of the low price can do it before the end of this year because when we enter 2024, there will be so much positive news and interest in Bitcoin, this will make it difficult to enter again as it may appear the price is too high. At this point, it is only those using DCA that can buy whereas those waiting for the dips might continue waiting.

So why is it that when we invest in the DCA way, we need resistance and 24-hour price increases or something short? Isn't DCA intended for the long term and not thinking about profits while the target is still long?

When you have the intention to do DCA for years, any price must be bought according to your plan with the DCA method of 1 week - 2 weeks or 1 month at any price to buy.
So with your way of thinking it will hinder where the process in your own DCA let alone about thinking about resistance, market trends, volatility or other factors.

I think to take advantage of price increase is to DCA as soon as we can determine that resistance has been broken. So the challenge is the certainty we need that the trend has turned upwards because btc is highly volatile and can drop back within 24 hours to return back bear  So my advise to taking advantage of bull ride is to DCA but on a reason that it has been confirmed for bull.

Position yourself according to a variety of possible scenarios in which you already have a plan what you are going to do for each scenario.. . and surely, there might be some movements that go beyond your expectations, but if you have a plan, then you should still be able to tweak your plan in order to account for such deviations versus if you had overly planned for one direction or another.


I doubt that you are as non-biased/impartial as you are trying to make yourself out to be.  So whatever, if you believe that you are largely prepared for any direction, then you will need to live with the consequences... yet it seems to me that you are largely just preparing to say I told you so rather than really preparing for a variety of possibilities, because it really should not matter very much if you end up being right or not in terms of your base case scenario.


If you like to believe that there is correlation despite the longer term trends, then that is on you.  You seem to have picked some recent data from the last 3.5 years which seems to be somewhat selective and you are trying to tell a story of correlation from that.


If you look at bitcoin in 2018 and 2019 compared to stocks and then you try to graph correlation over that 5-6 year period what do you get?  You get a hell of a lot less correlation because at best, bitcoin is around 3x -8x stepped up from those price points... and yeah you can dance around and try to argue correlation. blah blah blah.. good luck with that.

Now if you add in another cycle and go out another 4 years and you go from 2014 to 2015 and you compare bitcoin and stocks as compared to where they are now, and you have bitcoin around 30x to 50x up from those points, and are you going to want to describe correlation from that data?

We could go back even further and adding another few years (such as looking at 2011-2012(, but sometimes it is not as fair to be going back to data in Bitcoin's very first cycle because bitcoin hardly even had a price, so for sure the correlation is even worse, and it just goes with bitcoin going around 1,000x to 14,000x from then to today.. depending on the starting measuring points.

Yeah, bitcoin has an ongoing unfair advantage over traditional systems because it is still in its early adoption phase which means s-curve exponential adoption rather than the comparing of one mature asset class as compared to another mature asset class, so if you want to continue to make dumb-ass mistakes and try to act as if bitcoin is in some kind of a quasi-mature asset class and blah blah blah, that is your choice to decide to completely ignore that bitcoin is ongoingly likely inside of an early s-curve adoption phase, and even if bitcoin is not guaranteed to continue to prosper within such an exponential s-curve, you are making mistakes by trying to downplay and/or ignore the matter by looking at selective data and trying to act as if correlation exists through your looking at shadows (reflections of reality) rather than at actual light (reality)... but hey, whatever.. you do you.