Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 390. (Read 108368 times)

Your approach to prepare for different scenarios is commendable, and we should consistently accumulating Bitcoin whatever the situation we confront, is a wise advice . However, we need to acknowledge that fundamentals and Bitcoin correlation with stock market does affect the Bitcoin price. The historical performance of Bitcoin since last quarter of 2021 when bullish cycle was coming to end, has vindicated that announcements related to inflation, (CPI), GDP growth rate and interest rate decisions have had note able impact on Bitcoin price, though these effects were tended to be short lived.

Perhaps, and I'm still learning. BUT what you and many other people might have already read or learned is, it's Bitcoin's first time to exist in a recession environment and although you might be right in that Bitcoin might not be affected if other markets are crashing, I still believe that it's safe to conclude that there's a HIGHER probability that it could crash together with the rest of those other markets.

Would that be a non-biased/impartial presumption?

There is a saying that we should always listen to our hearts and put our energy on the things or investment that keeps us awake all night thinking about on how to start, we should always follow it because it will lead us to the right part, perhaps just like you said imagine if you had listened to what the news was saying about Bitcoin you would completely missed the opportunities due to speculation, this has been the regret of so many person whom were mislead while listening to bad news about Bitcoin and now they wish they had not listen to the news, perhaps that's one of the reasons why knowledge is very important because with knowledge about Bitcoin you are certain of were Bitcoin is heading to in the future and can never be influenced by any speculation or bad news about.

I have been a victim of this in my early days in Bitcoin. It was really tough overcoming the discouragement and negativity from friends and colleagues.  Some even told me that the money I was putting in Bitcoin would have been useful for buying shares then. They were actually buying shares then but today those shares are worthless.

The worst one was when I saw a CNN supposed analyst on suit calling Bitcoin outright bubble. Frankly, I was worried at first but found way to calm myself down  after all I have always been a risk taker with inspiration drawn from a statement I saw in a movie "no risk, no reward".

I'm happy I did not give up and to know that they are wrong. While some of those sceptics I called friend are already deep in Bitcoin, having firm grip of their portfolios,  some of them that are adamant are still waiting for us to cry when Bitcoin supposedly fail.  THEY WILL WAIT TILL INFINITY!

I think that's normal, especially regarding risk and price volatility. I see that where there is volatility there is always value. It is possible that this condition also makes Bitcoin traders vulnerable to losses due to price movements when trading, but this is not something new for Bitcoin. So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

Investors in the bitcoin market have increased significantly due to its volatile nature. It's highly volatile compared to stock and forex so investors choose bitcoin over stock, forex and gold. It's volatility gives a higher opportunity and is significantly higher compared to the stock and forex markets. Its profit ratio is attractive which attracted most of the investors but the problem is that most of them ignore the risk and take little effort to tackle it. Caculative risk and investment strategy can make you a millionaire in this market but if you make a bet like a poker desk you can be doomed.

People who are new to Bitcoin can easily be vulnerable or influence by speculation or bad news against Bitcoin, let's take for instance a beginner who has less knowledge about Bitcoin and just started accumulating some good amount of Bitcoin for holding and perhaps he heard people saying all kinds of awful things about Bitcoin that the price is crashing or Bitcoin price will not do well in the future, you will see that after the beginners had listing to those negative speculation his mindset and emotions or passion he has for Bitcoin will be seriously affected were as he start panicking and sell off his accumulated Bitcoin, so perhaps we should focus on positivity and shouldn't allow speculation influence our perception on accumulating Bitcoin.

Planning to hodl your coins for the long term is a good start and I also support you not focusing on the price as you want to hodl for the long term. Using the DCA method to accumulate is a good strategy and that should be where you should focus on. While a price move up and down, while focusing on Bitcoin's price, you might end up stopping accumulation or selling your coins. People who hodl for the short term might have the idea of risking their funds for the long term, but based on the way they focus constantly on the Bitcoin price movement, they end up selling in the short term.

You can't believe in anything until you go through deeply. Trust in Bitcoin will only come when one can gain a holistic knowledge in Bitcoin. Who are outside of this concept, Bitcoin may be only a minor currency. They may consider only for a trading tool for the time being. There is a wide difference in opinion between bitcoin believer and who doesn't want to trust Bitcoin. We want to hold Bitcoin for the long term because we dream of getting a reliable return in the future. When the price of Bitcoin rises temporarily, Our confidence is unwavering, we pursue our long term goals and when it falls, we have the opportunity to further increase the portfolio by using DCA.

that at first we believe bitcoin may be due to assumptions or speculation and also the analysis we do on the future of bitcoin. It's impossible for us to immediately believe in bitcoin when we just got to know it, right?
The motivation you say from speculation that others say makes us more excited. And we can also see how many people end up having to panic because of spculation that says bitcoin is smething bad and has no future or that says bitcoin is a scam. It proves that this does affect bitcoin holders, especially those who are new to bitcoin.

I doubt that I was making it about you.  If I say, your ideas suck, or if I say that you keep saying that the BTC price is going down and you seem to be against buying and you seem to be for waiting.. then I am not talking about you, I am talking about your ideas... even if I might frame my response in a way that might seem to be attacking you personally, that's not my intention.


Yes.. you already made that point clearly, and it may well be true that a recession comes and/or various asset classes end up crashing, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin buying should be put off in order to see how that might play out... especially for folks who might not have any or much BTC.

Now for guys likely you who have been stacking for more than 7 years, then maybe you can afford to wait for dips because you have enough BTC to be somewhat prepared for UP, even if you are hanging onto some of your cash, just in case the BTC price goes down or for other emergency expense reasons as you also stated to be another one of your reasons to be hanging onto some cash, yet at the same time, you are not selling your bitcoin and you have a certain amount of bitcoin that helps to prepare you for up.. so it is not like you are not prepared in both directions, even if you are talking doom and gloomy and talking about waiting rather than buying with whatever extra cash that you have built up since the last times that you bought.


From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.


Ok... I gave my opinion.


I made conscious decisions to leave value with both Bitfinex and BTC-e.. .. and there were times in which I changed my mind about how much BTC I was keeping with various third parties, and also coming to find out about how easy sim attacks make people vulnerable .. and they are still going on now... but in 2017, they were less common, but I probably should have realized a bit better regarding the sim swap attack vector.. .. so then if something like that ends up happening, there are ways to change some approaches in order to make funds less vulnerable to that attack vehicle, even though, sometimes, some funds might still be vulnerable through other attack mechanism.


Some losses are BIGGER than others, and frequently there are ways to protect yourself even when taking risks, but one of the things about risks is that we don't always realize some of the risks that we are taking or we assign the wrong values and might end up with losses from which are more difficult to recover... financially and/or psychologically...


There are a lot of ways that people go through and deal with losses, and surely if all of the value was ONLY in BTC, then there might be more devastation.. but if the person had various other non-btc investments (such as stocks, properties, bonds and cash) that might have had been equal to 20 or 30 BTC at the time that s/he lost the 20 BTC, then there still is a nestegg of value in some other location.. so the loss in terms of half of the BTC portfolio might seem large in the short term, but there are various other reserve assets in other places... so such loss is not totally devastating.. only partially devastating.. and I also described a scenario in which the overall dollar value of the BTC portfolio did not even effectively bring down networth for vary long because the BTC price had been going up so much at the time.. . so then the loss ends up playing out more like opportunity costs rather than actual losses in networth that lasted...

one of the funny things about bitcoin (or maybe any other greatly appreciating asset, that sometimes very large mistakes can be made, but mostly HODLers/accumulators still can end up making money, even if they might have made less money from their mistakes, they still can end up making money in some kinds of scenarios, as long as they don't get totally reckt, and this case, holding onto half of the BTC was part of the explanation for the devastation not being as bad as it could have had been.


ok.


I surely am not of the perspective that anyone should be waiting... but instead if such person does not have an emergency fund in place and does not have very many back up resources, then s/he can still invest into bitcoin, but just take a smaller position size while s/he is working on shoring up various ways to draw from emergency funds.  

So my own perspective is that there is likely needs to get started in bitcoin as soon as possible, while at the same time, if there are various things messed up in your regular life, then likely you need to be both working on shoring them up and also making sure that you are not taking any kind of large BTC position size.. so maybe instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, you only invest $10 per wee into bitcoin and use the other $90 per week to get your other shit together.. and so maybe it takes you 1-2 years before you can get your shit together sufficiently enough that you can move your weekly investment size up to $100 per week, but in the meantime, you had been investing $10 per week while you were putting in order other aspects of your financial and psychological life.

So I think that it is better to error on the side of getting started bitcoin sooner rather than later, even if you have various messes in your life that you simultaneously having to actively work upon.


that sounds right.


Sorry to cause so much work upon you.... hahahahaha.....yeah.. sometimes there are no real needs to respond further.

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

Checking the marketing every day to know the market sentiment when you already have a system in place is just exercise in futility. The emotional stress that you will get is not worth it. It is looking like you are deviating a little from the focus of this discussion. Just @Sayeds56 said, what we should be focused on is to buy and hold and checking market sentiment everyday may not be too effective way of going about it.

I am not in anyway condemning short term trading because there are also people doing well in it. But base on what we are discussing here, checking market sentiment daily when you are focusing on holding for long is not in supportive of our discussion.

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors, but we should apply caution not to get fully carried away with the illusion from what we do and get the wrong result, we can also as well work by the past history on bitcoin, compare each season from you each other, work inline with them and creates time to also develope our own personal foresights through the research we make, which is not the reason why we should depend on single entry to get our best results when making an investment, there are times we have to be dynamic and makes it appears more of diversification in techniques used to achieve the maximum result.

Feel sorry to hear that you lost your amount in Bitfinex and in BTC-E. I did not know about any BTC-E exchange but now I do know about it, I am confused to read that, it was a Russian exchange/trading platform then why did they place or choose the servers located in the USA? Well, that's another story. And you do have good points that, there would be worse possible incomes from which you have been saved by luck and with experience. We all learn from such mistakes.

But I am trying to not make those mistakes, instead, I'll learn it from the wounded lion (legendries) like you. 

Well, that's human nature to whine about the losses and profits which was not there. I mean, we should accept our fate and be happy with what we have but there will always remain a feeling of, I had it. We can overcome this feeling by controlling our nerves and being happy with what we have and how to move forward with that. Of course, saying it seems easy but not for those who have to follow it.


You are right, the emergency situation did have a bad impact on mental health and the victim is forced to take bold actions that he doesn't want to. Like he can sell his remaining 20 BTC to face the emergency state. Or some part of it. However he focused on increasing that number of BTC from 20 to 25 BTC. And even in that scenario if he still loses those 5 BTC then he will definitely be broken by heart.

He must have lost hope and have no motivation, but the profits will encourage him.

Well, the funny thing is, I am still replying late, and just to remind you, now we are talking about emergency funds and the mistakes that leads a man to make decisions that cost them a lot in the future.

I am happy that you never faced such emergency situations and always have an alternative source of income to deal with the lose and the emotional pressure on yourself that you will get from the value of the loss. This indicates that a person with no job or source of income should not start their journey in BTC until they have some 1 or 2 sources of income. Because that's the only way he can survive the hits of the market or hits from scams.

That's a progressive mindset, I have this mindset. I always try to think before making investment or buying things especially. Because if we buy things that become a liability later and might cost us, like what if that $6k worth laptop is damaged and, on its repair, I have to spend more money because the laptop is expensive. Overall, my cost will increase my expectations, so I have to play under the sources I have.

Yeah you shared this link before I have bookmarked it already and will read it.

PS: to be honest, I got diverted when I see your big replies and my energy just said, do not read it just read other threads. Hehe. I am not saying anything bad about your post just telling the reason of the late reply on this post. Today, I was free and thought that I should read your reply in full and reply to it.

Normally i see no reason why economic recession can affect Bitcoin in anyway, perhaps have we forgotten what economic recession is all about? of course during economic recession there used to be lack of money, inability for people to work and earn money which will result to lack of money in circulation but most of the people who has save a lot of money tend to diversify there funds to Bitcoin because going into Bitcoin could be there only chance to remain financially stable when the recession will come to an end, so to me economic recession doesn't affect Bitcoin but instead it increases the demand for Bitcoin were as everybody will channel most of there funds to Bitcoin as the best investment to diversify all there money to.

It's not about me. I was merely asking a question. The fundamentals are projecting that there could be a recession/crisis and therefore a possbility of a crash of all markets because there's simply less and less money in the system caused by rate hikes and QT.

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?


Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up  for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not. 

Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.

And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).

But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.