It is difficult to give more suggestions than what I already have because you seem to be wanting to time your buys in a way to attempt to get as much bang from them as you can, and sure there is nothing wrong with that, up to a point, but you have to still consider that no matter what you do, you are likely going to still have some cash in your reserves and the price goes up or you run out of cash and the price goes down.
It seems that you also have gone through some of the exercises that we discussed, but really best case, worst case and base case scenarios have short, medium and long term components, and they likely are not very relevant for short term since you probably should mostly be focusing on DCA rather than trying to buy the dip and things like that. .It seems that you do not have enough money coming in on a regular basis to be covering all of the scenarios..so you have to just keep building your various stashes that are going to be combined with BTC, emergency funds, reserves and maybe even maintaining some float so you don't cause yourself to go crazy if you make mistakes and you try to push your BTC buys but then run out of money or fail to plan properly..
One of the solid ways that I can suggest is to create a plan for either 3 or 6 months at a time, but hey, I know that you don't want to do that because you are all excited about the ETFs and about the halvenings, so I cannot really blame you for those kinds of inclinations to front-load rather than budgeting for 3 or for 6 months.
Anyhow, if you budget for 6 months, then you add up all the money that you have available for investing (and maybe you already bought bitcoin with that), an then you have your income coming in which is weekly or twice a month or maybe it is more sporadic than that, but still you have some kind of an idea of your budget, so if you have a weekly allowance in which you are able to buy $100 per week, then whenever the week starts, you can try to figure out the best of the dips during the week, and maybe you buy $33.33 worth of bitcoin each time there is a significant dip, and then by the end of the week, you spend whatever is left, if you have any left, and then the next week you have another $100 in your allowance that you are able to spend, so you can try to buy the dips, but maybe you will get too stressed by that, so what is wrong with just picking a day of the week and then just buy every week on that day?
$100 per week would give you $2,600 invested in 6 months.
If you have $2,400 in your savings, and you decide that you want to spend half of it right away, then you end up buying $1,200 right away, and then maybe the other half you use to buy dips (if there are dips), so then maybe you might set your first dip buy $100 at around $38k, and then every $750 that the BTC price drops then you would end up buying another $100, but that would give you only 12 BTC buy orders, and is that enough for you or not? In my thinking you want BTC buy orders to go slightly below where you think is the most that the BTC price is likely to drop, but maybe you consider that there are no way that you could have 12 buy orders fill.. because that would be buying $100 at each of the price points:
1 = $38,000
2 = $37,250
3 = $36,500
4 = $35,750
5 = $35,000
6 = $34,250
7 = $33,500
8 = $32,750
9 = $32,000
10 = $31,250
11 = $30,500
12 = $29,750
No one knows, so you just try to set your buy orders (increments and amounts) the best that you can (based on your budget and based on your view of not wanting to run out of money to buy but being happy if the BTC price goes up rather than down), and you hope that all of your buy orders don't get filled unless the BTC price spikes down, fills all your orders and then goes back up (I know newbies are not as affected by price drops, but still getting yourself into a mentality of a BTC holder is that you should probably be stacking BTC to such an extent that you are always hoping the BTC price goes up rather than down or sideways).
You don't know.. are your orders going to get filled or not? They should feel like insurance that you don't want to have to use, but you have it in case the drop happens. And maybe the longer that you are in bitcoin the longer you maintain these kinds of buying on the dip ladders while at the same time you are DCA buying on a regular basis, perhaps $100 per week or some other amount that is reasonable based on all of your circumstances that you reassess from time to time.
Thanks sir it has really been helpful, I now know where I'm failing at and that is making long term plans, my plans need to be a little bit long term and also the senerio I would create, I had been building up my emergency funds and reserves quite all right, but now I think k i should also budget a little to saving at leat 3-6 months of cash that I would use to DCA, after every six months in addition to my normal weekly regular plan. I can't say it all, but I would do a real reassessment of my plans and senerio and match it up with what you've said and try to bring it to my terms of comfort. Thanks a lot sir, its really been wonderful having you here.
Build a business first, get the profits, then invest in bitcoin?
If that's what you mean, can the business promise profits? I think every business that is built certainly does not guarantee that the entrepreneur will get the profit as expected, that is a risk that really should not be ignored. But your suggestion about how someone can have a source of income is correct, I also agree with it.
Business and investment both have risks, but the risks may be different. Investing in bitcoin is simple if you are only interested in being a holder, it can save more emotions due to uncertain market volatility. A person can invest in bitcoin even if they don't have a steady source of income, but they should at least have a way to save money whenever they have money. Despite their excessive fear of investment risks, they have never been forced to do so. Only people who can consider high risks are worth investing in, if they are afraid of losing, then they should just keep their money under a pillow.
IMO I can't actually say all business are not guaranteed to make profit, but growing up from a business family I might be used to this, so I might not really have problem making sales from my business. But I feel it is quite important for investor to have steady source of income even if its little to assist them in their investment journey, else how can they build their emergency funds or even guarantee themselves not to touch their Bitcoin holdings. Its true they can start without having a source of income, but at least they must be a form of regularity in the pattern they get money else it would be hard for them to save also consider that they would have some expense that could pile up since they only have money once in a while, so it's best to get or have sturdy source of income, unless they already have some huge savings to start investing with.