I doubt that many of us should be investing into bitcoin or anything else with a state of mind that anything can happen, because the fact of the matter is that there are more probable and less probable events and there are better and worse investments, and sometimes, we might invest into a variety of possible outcomes, but it is also quite likely that if something has 1% or less chances of happening, we should be careful that we do not invest more than 1% of our efforts, money and energy into such possibility, but we also should not treat it as zero% either.. so we have to figure out some proportionality in our actions.
Earlier on in this thread you made mention of us creating diverse senerios of events that could happen
My suggestion to provide various and diverse frameworks should still be within some frameworks rather than throwing up your hands and saying "anything can happen" because it is not correct that anything can happen with the same kinds of odds... maybe I am quibbling..? but there is a difference between saying anything can happen and saying to prepare for a variety of scenarios.
In our investment, like a best case senerio when the market undergoes a down trend and we have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lesser price, a normal case senerio where the market just consolidates around a particular price range and a worst case senerio where the price spikes and we have to buy at a much expensive rate(and this scenario would differ with respect to different individuals at different time frames and also needs at that time),
In the short term all of those scenarios could seem to be happening at the same time.. .. meaning over a year or two or three we could have extreme up, down, sideways, and so it is likely that we expect a variety of possibilities even within the scenarios and difficulties in terms of determining which one is playing out.. .. which is part of the reason to have 4-10 years or longer in mind, as long as you are considering your investment in that kind of way, and surely some young folks are going to have 30-40 year timelines, but at the same time, they still need to be investing and doing their preparations in shorter periods in order to build towards their longer term goals, and there is almost no way that we can know specifics the further we go out and even knowing a couple years in advance can be difficult... so sometimes our main ideas might be trying to get directionally correct rather than correct about various specifics along the way..even though we might be prepared for a variety of extremes that might come in the middle of longer wave directional correction playing out in ways that we hope to have had prepared ourselves sufficiently well..
so with respect to this events mentioned, I guess all of them might have equal probability of happening and we would prepare for all of them at once
Even though you likely have a considerable amount of blindness, you still likely have base case scenarios..
Frequenntly my base case scenarios involved BTC as flat or even ONLY appreciating on average the same as the stock market which would hav had been around 6% per year, but at the same time, I understood that my base case was not even likely to play out exactly... but it was a way of projecting out.. and also considering extremes within too.
, but I'm wondering if in a case of senerios, preparation can be seen as investment or efforts since they have not exactly happened or could you better explain this in terms of putting efforts to each possibility.
Some things are in your control and some are not.. so ongoing buying and maybe holding funds aside to buy on dips and perhaps earning more income or spending less.. so sure you are going to be making various efforts along the way, and maybe even monitoring and measuring where you are at whether you are in the red or black and maybe you could spend 3 years or more seeming to not be making much progress.. but if you are still building your BTC holdings then maybe that would be your shorter term goal and your calculation that you will be in a better position from those earlier efforts in the future even though in the present it might not be looking as great on paper.
But in overall I do understand that we would and should put our effort (whether it be in terms of cash , thinking or efforts) in term of the possibility of any event happening, so that we would not put effort In events less likely to happen than in events most likely to happen just because we expect them to happen or for whatever reason that may cloud or judgement. Meaning that any investment decision we make should calculated in terms of what is most likely to happen or not giving us a kind of precision even if not accuracy in our decisions.
That mostly sounds correct.
Another thing I doubt that anyone should be investing based on positive feelings, either. There are needs to be tempered in your investment, and to have enough flexibility to reassess ways that you may be wrong or might have been wrong in the past, and sometimes adjustments might need to be made based on new information. .and positive feelings might not make any difference if you ended up investing into something based on hype rather than substance.
Then, I believe they should be a place for what is right and what we feel in our investment path and decision-making, because we may be locked in a place of feeling good about a specific pattern of investing rather than doing what is right or most logical.
My point is that you need more than just feeling, but of course, if you are doing things in pretty solid ways, you are likely going to feel good about it.
Another example of how emotions can influence us is when we become too rigid to adjust to or change our investments depending on new information, as you mentioned. And this means that even we, the investors, need to regularly go back and analyze our investment progress, and at times check what we are doing or even reassess our plans to see if there is a place for change or to adapt to new market conditions. So a investor must be flexible, but some persons have gotten accustomed to a pattern of doing things that they even resist change and this could in turn affect them.
Sometimes patterns can be good, and sometimes we might not know that it would be better to make some adjustments, and sometimes the adjustments might merely be discretionary and might not make any kind of BIG difference.. and other times we might not realize that we should have had made changes earlier, and when it comes time to make the changes, we might have to reconsider whether it is still a good idea to make the same changes or to formulate other kinds of changes based on new information and new assessments that we have made.
Sometimes if we spend several days thinking about whether we should make changes or not, and then maybe in the end, our time might have been better spent in some other kinds of activities.
Just the other day (a week ago or so), I spent several hours to make several changes to some of my buy sell orders, and then towards the end of that period I realized something that I had overlooked.. and I did not want to continue with working on it.. so I took a break for nearly a week before going through and revising my work in order to account for the overlooked aspect, which again ended up taking a couple of hours (not as much time as the first time), but still enough time that involved my continuing to think about it and then finally to execute it, and not always knowing the exact details until I actually put it into place and then look at it on paper for a while and make some cross comparisons to other kinds of information that I have to make sure that I am comfortable with all of the changes, and probably a bit of back and forth.. but in the end, I am feeling comfortable with the changes.
Sometimes changes like this can have BIG ramifications and other times the ramifications might not be as BIG.. and the main way to come to the solution that is comfortable is to have some back and forth in the consideration of various scenarios.. .
