I want to be cautious and not sound too hopeful, it is worth mentioning that we are only 8 months away from halving event,
If I use my fingers to count, then from now until the mid-to-end of April, I get 6.5 months.
7 months at the most.
Not 8 months - even though anything can happen in the next 6-8 months.. but based on our almost being there, I really doubt 8 months.
In order to get 8 months, a lot of hashpower would have to be taken off-line and maybe even consistently.. and after every difficulty adjustment to continue to remove hashpower... seems that mining just is not that centralized, even though people sometimes FUD about various aspects of control over mining and also ability to mine.. .but if the hashing power and difficulty gets cut in half from here.. there likely would be previously inefficient miners coming online. .and, yeah we could say that the BTC price might have to drop as well (and electricity go up) in order to ongoingly disincentivize currently inefficient miners from coming online when the difficulty continues to spiral down.. in such a scenario..
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I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Define "surge." What if bitcoin does not go down as much as some other assets?
You seem to be ongoingly committing the same error as a lot of people who do not seem to either understand bitcoin or to be able to look at the charts.
In other words, even if we don't know exactly what bitcoin is going to do in various scenarios, we should not be presuming bitcoin to be correlated to traditional assets or to macro factors that attempt to manipulate the market..
Another thing is that even though UPpity is always a possibility and a probability, we should not be basing our finances and psychology on that, while at the same time we should continue to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction, which means that you better not be disappointed when you end up holding onto more fiat than you wished that you had held merely based on your considerations of various downity scenarios for the BTC price that might not end up playing out. just because a lot of smart people are talking about those various doom and gloom scenarios.
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They're not entirely commentaries, those are questions. I'm merely asking for your and everyone's opinions. I don't want to hear another "who the hell knows"? This is not about "when to buy or what price to buy". I just want a discussion, it doesn't matter if we agree or disagree, but we can still learn from each other.
Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not.
Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.
And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).
But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.
I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.
The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point. As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.
Wind_FURY does not believe in buying now, and he would prefer to wait.. and that's his choice.. because he does not really believe in DCA, especially if he thinks that he might be able to get a wee bit more BTC if he were to wait.. .. so he likes to gamble, even though he believes that he is not really gambling because he thinks that the odds are in his favor merely because a lot of smart macro pundits are saying the same thing about recession in 2024 blah blah blah.
So Wind_FURY wants us to agree with his decision to gamble and his decision to wait for further DOWNity. that may or may not end up happening... and actually seem doubtful to be happening.. but we still can be prepared of the downity to happen, while at the same time consistently and ongoingly stacking sats, but Wind_FURY does not want to do that because he has already got it into his head that there is going to be further down. even if at the same time, he doesn't really know that's why he is asking for us to agree with him, and his wait for the recession approach.
Most likely king daddy gives less than two shits about any recession... but we have not really seen bitcoin's price performance in such a potentially ongoingly negative macro performance scenario.
Nobody knows if the price of bitcoin will go fown again. It may or may not as it is hard to predict bitcoin price movement.
It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months. It's possible that we'll witness the green candlelight of bitcoin in the month of October. At the very least, it won't be a terrible idea to anticipate that the price of bitcoin will increase in October compared to other months.
King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.
up or down in the future no one knows, but if the rumors are true that there will be an increase then this is a good opportunity, not apart from that investors or traders must remain vigilant about the news about BTC that will rise or fall, being aware of the news about btc is certainly necessary so as not to predict it wrong.
With rumors circulating that btc managed to close the month of September positively and will experience a rapid increase, this is a good opportunity so don't be wrong in predicting it or wrong with the rumors circulating about btc, not many people take advantage of this moment to make a profit.
You are speaking a bit vaguely and like a trader and a gambler junder.
We are not talking about trading and/or gambling in this thread, even though surely part of the thread does relate to trying to figure out when there are dips in order to be able to buy on the dip, which is also part of the reason that so many of the participants in this thread seem to have had resorted to ongoingly DCA while not really knowing how to figure out how much of a dip there is going to be, but if they (we) are ongoingly accumulating BTC in these price areas, then in the longer term we are likely going to be setting ourselves up to be in a good position and with more options.. rather than merely considering whether there might be short term profits in October.. .. even at the same time, UPward price moves can be helpful psychologically, even if we are not selling right away because we are likely able to see signs that we are on the right path in terms of both ongoingly HODLing BTC but also in terms of our spending quite a bit of time in accumulating BTC.
You have been a member of the forum for quite a long time @junder (since April 2015), so even if you had been investing a low amount of value (such as
$10 per week) into bitcoin, you would have had the potential to have had been in a very good position by now.. more than 8 years after registering on the forum...which would be about $4,400 invested into BTC and nearly 2.81 BTC accumulated.
So if you did not start to DCAing into BTC in 2015, then you might have started to invest into bitcoin at a later date, and if you have not figured out the value and power of DCA (and or the ongoing buying of BTC and HODLing it), then maybe you better rethink your approach to BTC and your ways of talking about BTC in terms of short term profits..
But hey, whatever, I don't know enough about you, but I can look at your timeline in terms of your registration on the forum and use the charts to project out what a modest DCA into BTC strategy might have done for your finances and perhaps psychology overall if you had been ongoingly accumulating BTC during that time.. and surely there are no real signs that an ongoing accumulation of BTC is not going to continue to be a decently good plan, even if we might not know the future exactly, so if you have not gotten started in DCA and/or ongoingly accumulating BTC, then maybe you better get started sooner rather than later, and stop wasting so much time and energies thinking about short term profits.
I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.
The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon.
but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point.
As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.
OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.
Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.
Fair enough. Save some of your dollars for the possible crash then. No one is suggesting to be buying BTC from what should be your emergency fund. So if you do not have enough money in your emergency fund to buy now, then you better wait it out... I don't have any objections to that kind of a motivation.
You never want to put yourself into a situation in which you have to be selling your BTC at a price that is other than your complete choice.. and likely better to be selling BTC on the way up rather than down.. but if you already reached fuck you status with your BTC then you just sell some BTC whenever you need some additional money as compared to the person who is still in BTC accumulation stages, should not be overly buying if s/he does not have enough certainty in his/her cashflow/expensens and emergency angles to all of that.
Yes, you are both correct, and that is the other reason why more people are beginning to accumulate more BTC. Everyone wants the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in the due season. We are just in the month of October and sooner the time for the bullrun will arrive.
Yes, it's true that the economy in some localities is not friendly towards its citizens and I see that it is enough reason for investors and those who are not yet an investor to take part in the investment and keep accumulating until the bullish time. Now is the best time for anyone to join the BTC before it's going to be late. Even if the capital is not enough, they should still start with the little that they have.
If you are accumulating BTC for the long term, then you should not be giving too many shits about short term UPpity price movements, except that it confirms your investment into BTC, but if you are not ready to sell yet, then there remains quite a bit of value in just continuing to accumulate BTC and not getting concerned about whether a bull run is coming soon or not.
