Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 453. (Read 123222 times)

I feel as if I am repeating myself, and I know that we are not talking about selling in this thread, but sometimes there seems to be some need to make a point, which you keep talking about selling all your bitcoin which  and then you talk about holding after that which largely seems to mean that you would sell and then try to buy back later.

Let's say that a hypothetical person got into BTC in early 2016, and such person had a salary that when from $10k to $30k in the past 7 years, so if such person had not made too many other investments, maybe such person had made some mistakes along the way, but maybe ended up accumulating 2 bitcoin.... so it could be possible that such person never sells all of his/her bitcoin but instead maybe shaves off 10% of his/her then holdings at various points in time.. at $100k, at $150k, at $250k.. .. so even if there might be questions of BTC price direction, the amount of BTC that is sold is less than the profits that had been made in the integers.. and surely you could look at 2 BTC and you could say that from $30k to $100k the profits had gone up $70k per coin, so a total of $140k for that price move, so if there is a decision to sell 50% or less than the profits, you will never run out of bitcoin and you will still be able to skim off pretty decent profits to either be able to buy back if the BTC price goes down or just use such value for consumption purposes.. .

yet, I still would suggest that if you are still in accumulation stages, then it is problematic to be selling too many BTC on the way up and expecting to be able to buy back lower.. but if you think you got it all figured out regarding when to sell and when to buy back that is up to you.. and I think that I probably have already deviated enough from the topic in terms of talking about selling ideas, since this thread is not about it and I still think that conservative selling on the way up if any is still somewhat potentially somewhat still aligned with ideas and accumulation focused theme of this thread.

I see people setting a sell goal of $100k for the next bull season, but I have a higher target because I believe the upcoming bull season will be a super cycle. Furthermore, I will only sell when the price reaches the target, I will not rush and excitedly sell the majority of my bitcoin just because it surpassed $69k, which was the old ATH. It may be high compared to many, but I believe bitcoin will be able to reach $150k-180k in the upcoming bull run and that is when I will sell my bitcoin.

In case bitcoin fails to achieve that target, I will continue to be a long-term holder for next season. That's why I decided to choose DCA monthly and not worry too much about the price in the short term.

All the things we think are easy sometimes don't match our expectations, which is if you sell all your BTC holdings to make a profit in the near future it could be that you are making the worst decision. Because if the price falls back to the first entry level it could be that we  can accumulate more BTC because it is supported by the profits we get. But if the price of BTC continues to rise then you have to wait longer, which is even worse to imagine. This means that it is better to continue holding in the long term rather than selling at a fairly small level of profit. Even though it is contrary to what was discussed, of course it is an option based on their respective positions. I think there is always quite a high level of depression that occurs in us if after we sell, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, even reaching 10% that day. (of course that is a regret that you will remember in the next few days/or months). On the other hand, it is better to buy at dips and hold in the long term for the next 1 year. That is more realistic in all the planning you make in the investments you have made.

Those who like to chase market prices are part-time traders or traders who like to take quick profits, even if only in a few percent, and I think you have also suggested something that is not much different from the discussion on this topic because in general here it is more geared towards buying at low prices which then hold them as best we can to see better profits in the future. And the low level of a price can also vary greatly from one person to another, because it is more focused on each person's personal perception.

Currently I can consider the price of Bitcoin as a low price and continue buying with the strategy I have used so far, even though some people may still think that the current price is not that low in their opinion. But that won't change my mind about sticking with my strategy of buying and holding for the long term, because right now I'm not living up to other people's perceptions of buying and holding as much as I can.

Actually everyone is entitled to choose whatever method that's well suitable for them, but responding based on our discussion and strategies here we don't advise buying low and selling higher if the price retrace up, is actually a gambling strategy were as the possibility of making a profits or losing money is on a 50 to 50 percent chances, perhaps you could be left behind while selling off your investment were as the market will keep shooting up and never give you the chance to buy back again, so perhaps I will just suggest you hold for long instead of chasing the market price.

Well you can do it that way if you can afford it with the cash flow you have.

When the price drops then increasing DCA a little bit is actually much more but when finances are not sufficient then don't force it, the scenario might be like this: Your average weekly DCA is $50 when BTC drops can be increased to $80 - $100 if it's difficult then don't do it because it's better with the habit of being a little calmer than increasing when the decline becomes uncomfortable because the money is not enough to input while forcing it will be an obstacle.

The second way is good! Needs are important to fulfill immediately rather than investing, when there is still money left over whatever it is then it will clearly not be a barrier in the DCA strategy, I think everyone will agree if they have prioritized needs and then the rest is invested.

Keep in mind that if we continue to pay attention to prices this will affect our mentality and thoughts towards our investment.

If you are happy to sell at these times with the current price, you're free to do it and just buy back when it dips.

So you pull out a bit of profit from that sale and then you keep it while leaving the amount that you'll use again for buying back. With that manner, you'll still not gonna be left behind.

But, if you think that it's just good to hold then we are on the same page.

DCA can be used by anyone as long as they understand how it works well. Experienced investors and anyone on a budget can definitely utilize this strategy for their long-term investment goals, so these two key points are crucial.

Some person who understands and intends to carry out DCA cannot be assumed to do so due to lack of budget. This is what determines more than desire and also understanding. But if they have the budget and are ready to do it, then I think experience and understanding will help to determine the entry price as well as the percentage of DCA needed.

Yeah sure the worst psychology for an investors is trying to determine what the price of Bitcoin will be in a certain month, however it gives a negative mindset were as you could be confused or disoriented about a particular moment to start accumulating which may cost you the opportunity to accumulate while you had the chance. Perhaps as an investor whose plans is to accumulating for holding, what should be consider or the question is: What is the potential of Bitcoin? What do I stand to profits in the future after holding?, if the investor were able to answer himself these question there is no need to determine what will be the Bitcoin price within a month before starts accumulating. Because for me is only Bitcoin and I can't think of any other investment apart from Bitcoin.

These period there are fear in the mind of those person who wants a quick quick return on their investment. But among all these period only few will understand that its good to pruchase now when most people feel less if it.

If you look at the current BTC chart anyone who knows how to make good use of opportunities will make use of the huge volatile swings. Which is what most people are trying to do now, although it might not be words that are said often. I don't want to start repeating what has been said here so many times about DCA. I still think DCA BTC is a good investment, but that does not mean other investment strategies are not good. I believe JJG has talked about that earlier.

In some sense I was attempting to describe some kind of a range in which some somewhat normal (or maybe even somewhat low income) members might choose to invest into bitcoin in such a ways that they might have been able to conclude that they have already established a budget, and surely there are consequences to their chosen level of investment into BTC, yet the extent to which they can even engage in BTC investing strategies that are even more aggressive than their chosen level might depend in part upon how much they figure out their own cashflow (and expenses) with considerable detail, so the more strongly they understand their own circumstances, the more likely that they are going to be able to cross into higher levels of aggressiveness in their BTC investment without ending up recking themselves or overly putting their BTC portfolios at risk.

Another angle towards ongoing BTC investing, including that bitcoin remains quit a great asymmetric upside bet, so even if someone ends up choosing an overly whimpy BTC investment approach, they still likely enjoy relatively decent odds of being able to prosper from their choice towards having had invested in bitcoin, stacking sats through the years and even HODLing during worrisome periods.



I am probably ONLY open to other ideas up to a point that real people are genuinely trying to work through opinions that they truly hold and/or that they are grappling with actual facts rather than making things up... so I try to be open within what I believe to be some kinds of attempts at reasonable and realistic parameters. 

I don't remember anything in particular in regards to June 9, 2023, even if I glance at BTC price charts and also if I glance at my posts from that day.


Without knowing too many of your details, it is difficult to know if there might be some ways that you might be able to adjust your particular approach... and at the same time, it likely is not a good idea to get into too many particular details.. even though sometimes we can talk about percentages or maybe present a hypothetical of someone who might have gotten started into bitcoin in mid-2016, but might have taken a certain approach and then made some adjustments along the way. .and then is considering further adjustments based on either changes in his/her particular situation or maybe even changes in views about bitcoin and/or how to approach bitcoin investing.

Let's say if someone had got into bitcoin in April 2016, and they had invested $10 per week, and based on about a $3,920 investment into BTC, by now, they could have accumulated around 1.2 BTC.  And, so maybe you are kicking yourself right now because whatever you did, did not result in that level of BTC appreciation, so I personally would suggest to get started doing that, and if you want to try to attempt to make up for your not having had been able to accumulate 1.2BTC by now based on such earlier investments, then maybe you might want to try to be more aggressive in the neighborhood of $100 per week rather than $10 per week, and surely you might still take a long time to get up to 1.2BTC or maybe you will never be able to accumulate 1.2 BTC, so in the end, you have to just figure out the level of aggressiveness that you feel sufficiently works for you and your circumstances without ending up putting yourself into a situation in which you will get reckt or even that you might get reckt because you ended up being too greedy.


because we are in a forum, which allows for members to discuss and to attempt to address a variety of angles, which might even include their sharing their own experiences and differing opinions.  As much as you like to believe, members do not necessarily agree or even understand the trade offs, even with some kind of a semingly simple proposition of buying the dip and HODLing.


Even you did not really answer the question very well. 

It could be said that the BTC price has been dipping since November 2022.. but this thread was started even before that (in April 2019) because there were dips even back then.. but April 2019 until June 2019 was actually a pretty significant period in bitcoin in which the BTC price largely went up exponentially at about 3.5x in such a short period from $4,200 to $13,880.  Quite amazing, and maybe buying the dip was NOT that great of an idea, since the BTC price ended up correcting back down to nearly it's starting point.. but then also seeming to be a kind of fluke in March 2020.. to correct all the way back down to $3,850 (quickly, but still it may well count).


Even though you attempted to summarize the concept of HODL, you also don't seem to understand the idea of HODL.  Sometimes HODL can apply to buying on the way down and then running out of money but the BTC price still keeps dipping.  HODL does not ONLY apply towards UPwards BTC price moves.


Exactly.  Each person has their practice in regards to their BTC accumulation and even their BTC maintenance and/or liquidation that may or may not end up changing with the passage of time, because forever is a long time to HODL that may or may not end up playing out as planned.. but I suppose if you hide your keys, even from yourself, then it is much easier to accomplish a "HODLing forever" plan.  It does not sound like a great plan, but you are free to make and execute whatever plan that you like.. including that you can choose to not plan, which some people engage in that kind of behavior too..


Your overall theme sounds good, but there is something wrong with your example.. because if someone bought 5 BTC for an average price of around $12k, that person would have spent around $60k for those 5 BTC, so there surely could be ways to sell some of the BTC and buy them back and to end up with more BTC.  So you are seeming to give away too much by assuming that they are able to sell at or near the top.. and if anyone ends up selling at or near the top, they end up having a lot of options to buy back lower if they did not end up spending it for consumption purposes and they kept that money in their investment portfolio.

At the same time, you are correct in saying that there should be no expectations to be able to buy the BTC back lower so maybe the amount that is sold would not end up being very much.. so maybe a total of 1 BTC gets sold at various points between $30k and $60k.. and so there has to be some desire to buy that BTC back at prices lower than purchase, but if someone ends up getting distracted into consumption or not really knowing when or how to get back into a buying and/or accumulating mindset, then that person might have ended up losing his/her BTC accumulation mindset which should not have had been entered into through the selling anyhow...especially if they are supposedly telling themselves that they are in BTC accumulation mode..

 and it likely could have been much better to just continued to keep accumulating another 1 to 3 more BTC in the last couple of years, even if the cost per BTC ended up being way higher so maybe by now the investment ends up being $120k with 7 BTC rather than with a higher average cost per BTC (of $17k per BTC rather than $12k per BTC), but still likely in a better position to have more 7 BTC rather than 5 BTC, especially if their goal was to continue to build their BTC size.. so in that sense you are correct that if your goal is to build your BTC portfolio holdings, then the better strategies are to continue to buy rather than selling and expecting to be able to buy lower, which just ends up likely screwing things up, even though on paper it seems like it could work to accumulate more by selling at higher prices and buying back lower.. but in practice.. it is way less certain than a more consistent and ongoing BTC buying approach.

Of course, we have to get away from that thinking. If we learn about DCA then we will not have any problem in saving bitcoins. Why do we use DCA strategy?

We all know that Bitcoin is best known for its volatility. By using this strategy an investor can reduce the risk of buying at high prices. By using of this strategy, we can bring the purchase cost of undervalued and overvalued bitcoins to a normal level which can further contribute to our bitcoin accumulation.

Investors can buy bitcoins because of the idea that the price of bitcoins can rise at any time. They can change their position due to emotional reasons, whether Bitcoin is experiencing a significant high or low. But if DCA strategy is adopted it is possible to avoid these emotional issues. Undoubtedly DCA removes the time requirement of an investor and can provide maximum assistance to the investor in disciplined investment.

Determining when the market will be bullish is difficult for everyone but if the investor does DCA then he can be tension free. You can benefit from long-term prospects without worrying about short-term price increases or decreases. Since DCA continuously increases the Bitcoin amount, it is easy to increase the Bitcoin accumulation after a certain period of time.

Bitcoin's potential increases over time and this DCA always reflects that long-term potential. DCA is a strategy that does not guarantee profit in Bitcoin but encourages long-term investment with risk mitigation which is profitable for investors.

You call a price of $25,900 a crash? That sounds strange to me because at that price, there was still huge optimism in the market. So long as we are still above $20,000 I still see the market as healthy and I will never regard it as a crash.  The dynamisc of the market is such that it does not move continuously in one direction so retracement is normal. Don't forget that Bitcoin have been in a range for a while, so that was just the lower part of the range. If you following discussions in WO, there is a zone called "don't wake me up". We are still very much within that zone in this present market conditions.

October is usually a good month for Bitcoin so I am guessing this year will follow other years.

It is a fact that all forms of investments including our saving accounts or fixed deposits carry inherent risks. This is primarily because fiat money loses its purchasing power overtime and interest paid on deposit are usually lower than the prevailing rate of inflation. Additionally, as you mentioned in your post, there is also concern of bankruptcy and currency devaluation.

In contrast to traditional instruments of investment, Bitcoin belongs to a unique class of assets, characterized by extended by extended periods of bear market, and relatively short lived bull cycles. Unlike bank deposits in banks, Bitcoin doesn't provide immediate rewards to its investors. However, as validated by its historical track record, it has delivered substantial rewards to those who held and consistently accumulated it during the bear cycles.

There are still 41K left for BTC to pass and it would still be too early for us to do so. That's right friends, don't rush, especially if you bought BTC at the price when it crashed, for example at $25,900 on the 25th.

Yes, I admit that and I also feel that the desire to sell is very high, like today's pump, which has a price of up to $27,300, but I think there are also those who do it and it's a momentary pleasure.

Yeah that's cool you have a psychology of a good investor, however just like you said everyone has there method or strategy in which they intend for accumulating Bitcoin, but however with how potential Bitcoin is the best strategy is just accumulate and holding because those that accumulate through buying dip and sells as the price peak stands a chance to miss what Bitcoin may holds for them in the future, I actually my first strategy when I started accumulating was buying dip and selling when Bitcoin price comes up and it wasn't working for me and in most cases after selling I find it difficult to replenish due to the market price has gone up way more than my selling point so I realized that the strategy is only for chasing market price which is a wrong strategy, so I realized I have been loosing opportunities while selling as the price peak, so I had to change my strategy since I'm very sure of Bitcoin potential so that's how I started accumulating and hold, because the only way to enjoy investment and rest of mind is through holding your Bitcoin.

It is true that investing in bitcoin is risky, but it cannot be said that depositing money in a bank is risk-free. Many banks have gone bankrupt and it is very difficult for people to get their money back, not everyone can easily or will be fully compensated if the bank goes bankrupt. To me, everything has risk, including bitcoin and banks. But taking risks with bitcoin will be much more worthwhile because if we succeed, the profits will be worth the risk we take. Meanwhile, banks' risk is not only bankruptcy but also currency devaluation due to inflation.

I have learnt never to sell my Bitcoin with the hope of buying it back  when price supposedly reduces. There is a high chance you will never replenish the Bitcoin. So I feel this pattern of buying at the dip and selling at the peak will not work for everyone as not everyone have the discipline to do that. Besides, is there any way to completely determine what the dip and peak are?  

Assuming you bought Bitcoin around $8k and some around $15k, probably you bought lets say 5 BTC in total. If you sold this in 2021 around $60k, this represent a descent profits. fast forward to today, there are high chances you have not replenished your portfolio with 5 BTC and this means even if you might have more money in fiat, yu have depleted your Bitcoin portfolio and anything that makes Bitcoin create a new ATH, you might likely be depressed seeing that your overall decision was not the best. On the other hand, you have kept a large chunk of that money as fiat, there is the possibility you inflation would have eaten deep into the money.

The ultimate aim of every believer in Bitcoin will be to own Bitcoin. In other words, you can not be a true Bitcoiner when you are overly ready to deplete your portfolio at the sight of profit even though you have the intention of buying it again at some point as this have turned to a game of probability. It is not a good position to be in my opinion.

and that is what we need to believe and do..

I don't know why need to extend the discussion that long when the title already speaks for itself.

Buying Dip - it is time to Accumulate because we are in dip market now abd this is the perfect timing for it.

HODL - this will stand on how  long we can take the holding..  some are just for the net halving and bullrun , but others wanted to take as far as the market can go.

but for me? i will depend in what i do believe and that is buying every amount that i can risk , and will hold till then if not forever .

I agree and have even experienced investment schemes like what you say. Maybe I still do it now, where the amount of investment spent is always not the same value, it could be $100 per week, or more often only $50 per week. This investment scheme is not suitable for most people who are consistent and know that their spending on Bitcoin will be determined well in advance, even for 1 year when reliable investors have prepared it. So when it's time to enter they only need to press the buy button.

I still remember saying that you are a person who is open to other people's opinions even if they have to disagree (hopefully you still remember June 09, 2023 ). Therefore, I always look for all investment doubts in several threads, paying attention, studying and comparing my investment methods which are not very consistent. Where do you think I should improve inconsistent investments, because limited income is the main obstacle, but the intention to become part of Bitcoin holder is the dream of many people, including me.