Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 452. (Read 123923 times)

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

Yes, you are both correct, and that is the other reason why more people are beginning to accumulate more BTC. Everyone wants the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in the due season. We are just in the month of October and sooner the time for the bullrun will arrive.

Yes, it's true that the economy in some localities is not friendly towards its citizens and I see that it is enough reason for investors and those who are not yet an investor to take part in the investment and keep accumulating until the bullish time. Now is the best time for anyone to join the BTC before it's going to be late. Even if the capital is not enough, they should still start with the little that they have.

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Even though I understand your argument, I still think that historic data have shown that October is usually a good month for Bitcoin. The market is already showing signs that we might see some movements anyways. Nevertheless, there is really no need to be bothered about price, instead, the focus should be on accumulating more Bitcoin because it is likely we might see some growth soon as we move towards next year.


Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

up or down in the future no one knows, but if the rumors are true that there will be an increase then this is a good opportunity, not apart from that investors or traders must remain vigilant about the news about BTC that will rise or fall, being aware of the news about btc is certainly necessary so as not to predict it wrong.

With rumors circulating that btc managed to close the month of September positively and will experience a rapid increase, this is a good opportunity so don't be wrong in predicting it or wrong with the rumors circulating about btc, not many people take advantage of this moment to make a profit.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point. As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


They're not entirely commentaries, those are questions. I'm merely asking for your and everyone's opinions. I don't want to hear another "who the hell knows"? This is not about "when to buy or what price to buy". I just want a discussion, it doesn't matter if we agree or disagree, but we can still learn from each other.

We are very much closer to halving as I see because it would not be too long we enter 2024 and before you know we are experiencing the very much long awaited halving event which would warrant the bull run we have long been looking up to. I have been able to do a quick check of Bitcoin situations years back when it approaches October just as you have said "uptober(October)". October seems to be a very good and favourable month for the beginning of Bitcoin bull  and it can be seen right from the very first day of this month. The spike in price is just becoming natural every year October and that's a good one and I believe it would be much higher than this come 2024 after the halving.


If you look at the above table you would see that October seems more of a bullish start or beginning for Bitcoin in the years past. Hopefully I think we are already in the bull circle with other spiking activities as a trigger for more hike in Bitcoin price come next year halving.

Source to table

To me I don't think there would be any much Bitcoin price movement in these October, one of the things you should understand is that the possibility of Bitcoin repeating a price movement on a particular month is not certain and perhaps if you check very closely you will see that during the times Bitcoin price use to repeat uptrend on the Month of October are mostly when the halving are still in some years ahead so if there was supposed to be any drastic price movement it would have done it earlier before now, so the Bitcoin price has been on a consolidation for sometime now and since we are in the last quarter of the year there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will still maintain those levels till the halving take place then you can expect Bitcoin price to surpass the ATH, so let's not allowed the psychology or speculation that Bitcoin price normally increase October affect our plans of accumulation.

Your observation is valid that Bitcoin market has experienced prolonged period of stagnation during past months, trading volumes were lower in particularly during the month of September. However, now we are in Uptober  (October) traditionally considered bullish month for Bitcoin that has shown promise in the early days of this month when price surged by more than $2000 in a single day.

I want to be cautious and not sound too hopeful, it is worth mentioning that we are only 8 months away from halving event, moreover, most of market experts are predicting issuance of Bitcoin spot ETF in the 1st quarter of 2024, a major step forward towards Bitcoin adoption. All these developments suggest that we are entering into initial stage of next bull cycle.

King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.

I think by having a reserve fund for a few months at least it won't be a concern because we can sustain on this fund.

Cutting half of the monthly salary I think it will be quite heavy, but we conclude to cut 30% for bitcoin it is more than enough of your salary, the rest can be used for a month's needs in the 70% allocation - because if you force to cut half the salary without any reserve funds in the account then it will be complicated when you have an urgent need.

Unless we have other sources of income, then the DCA strategy can be done every week if you only rely on a monthly salary then accumulate as much as you can, don't force it to be an obstacle later.

You are absolutely right in pointing out that Dollar Cost Averaging strategy serves to mitigate the impact of market volatility and minimize the risk associated with trying to time the market. However, we need to acknowledge that DCA is not a fool proof strategy and doesn't provide guarantee of profit in the long term. All financial markets are influenced by ever changing dynamics. The events of the past are not indicative of what will happen in the future.

In simple terms, the human appetite to make profit by making investment in risky asset is quite natural, and when it comes to Bitcoin it represents relatively a new class of asset with extremely high-level of volatility. This makes Bitcoin potentially a good choice for forks who can wait for long time and handle it when the market is not doing well, all in the hopes of making big profits later on.

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months. It's possible that we'll witness the green candlelight of bitcoin in the month of October. At the very least, it won't be a terrible idea to anticipate that the price of bitcoin will increase in October compared to other months.

As long as you are not a beggar and you have something that gives you little income, you can still DCA no matter how small your income is, all you need to do is to make up your mind and save a little percentage of your income and use it to buy bitcoin because you know that you are investing for a better future which should start now. It is people that don't see bitcoin hodli as their future investment that wouldn't love to sacrifice to buy bitcoin.

Life can't be as bad to the point that you do have only the money that you will use to feed alone, there are some days that we will be lucky to have some additional funds from people or from our working place. Fun's like bonuses or funds that will motivate you. Such funds can be used to buy bitcoin and from there you plan how possible you will able to accumulate funds for your DCA either monthly or quarterly, it isn't a must that it must be weekly with a specific amount. Everything about bitcoin investment is you believe in it and how you have understood that it will be a safe haven in the nearest future, with all these understanding, you will want to look for a way to buy and DCA based on your income size, no matter how small it is, because you don't want to be left out and regret in the future.

So many people didn't see how important bitcoin this very day and they didn't invest in the early stage but now they are regretting, if you ask some of them then to invest, they will say that they have low income od which they can still save out something from their little income to invest if they knew that bitcoin price will get to this level now. What am trying to say is that no amount is too small to use in investing using DCA strategy, all you need to do is to plan yourself and know how much you will be using and if it is very small, pile it up for 3 months or four months and buy regular like that or when you have extra funds that you didn't expect, you can use it dor upfront DCA.

Yeah the price has been dormant abit interms of movement, not going up or down and like you said it maybe because the halving is close by so that's why the price is stagnant. Many people out don't actually know this logic that's follows the price spike after the halving because I have a friend who actually feels the price movement will follow up by the end of this year and then expecting a bull next year and I have been trying to clear him about this notion of his but as nothing is sure in the price prediction I thought I would jus leave him to speculate ad his likes because bitcoin market is all base on speculation although past history have proven this logic about the price movement always after the halving.

Yes, this makes sense and is indeed more realistic in accordance with the fact that difficulties are occurring in society. DCA has always been the best method according to most people and I am also sure that most of them have applied this method, because after all, this strategy can give you complete comfort. And well let's discuss even though this good method already exists and we can already use it but still the problem will not stop here, I always think about how those who do not have good finances or salaries that can be said to be below average but have a strong intention to allocate a little budget for bitcoin, while their lives are mediocre and if they try to allocate their budget then the guarantee is their own lives, would you be willing to not eat this week just for the sake of allocating for bitcoin? honestly in my opinion it is not a good choice, I understand your intentions are quite good by using DCA, but that does not mean you have to sacrifice everything, especially your life. The point is that everyone has advantages and disadvantages in financial matters, and I say there is no compulsion whatsoever about when you should start investing.  Bitcoin doesn't mind if you come late, and that means you can come anytime (if your financial condition has improved).

There's nothing wrong with what you've done buddy, even if you're having trouble implementing DCA because something behind the scenes is holding you back. Even so I see that you are not out of ideas, by utilizing the weekly income from the signature campaign that you participate in and then you hold some of that income in bitcoin in a few years according to your target. Honestly this is a pretty good alternative and I would probably try it too, because it really makes sense it's exactly the same as DCA where you have to divide the budget by equal or different amounts for the allocation of bitcoin at a certain amount of time consistently. Honestly this is a pretty good idea and I think I'll give it a try.

I agree with what you said, everyone needs to learn continuously to understand the field they want, whatever it is, investing is not a trivial thing but rather storing assets or shares for a long time to get profits, which is different from saving which can be used for other times. a certain amount of time, and of course DCA is very helpful in this case without the knowledge we have to enter a field it's the same as lying, it's just a waste of time, learn more or less before entering a field, it's not a loss for us to learn anything as long as it's positive and not harm other people.
However, some people who invest for a long period of time break up in the middle of the road and sell it at a cheap price, even with small or large losses. It should be underlined that not everyone can invest for a long period of time. It is not easy to make long-term investments. because it is not free from the risks, only people who have a strong determination invest for the long term, salute people like that, they are able to wait for a long period of time with satisfactory results

Yeah you have a point but perhaps DCA strategy doesn't really mean accumulating every moment, you can also accumulate whenever you feel you have some funds to accumulate Bitcoin, you can still accumulate even when your salary is not enough perhaps let say you are earning a  certain amount on a monthly basis it doesn't necessarily mean you should start accumulating immediately were as you no it will affect you at the moment, but perhaps if after the end of month you were able to save an amount that could last you more than a month perhaps you can use half of the current month salary to accumulate some Bitcoin were as you still have a good amount in your reserve account that could even sustain you more than a month, with this method even with your small monthly salary you can be accumulating ones in a while and before you no you have gotten a big portfolio, I had similar challenge like this when I started accumulating and this was the pattern I used to accumulate and it worked for me but now I have other business that's helping me  to accumulate on a weekly basis now.

You surely seem to be going in both directions with your commentary, and there should always be some kind of need to prepare for further downity, so you largely seem to be quibbling (and/or having your own little dilemma) in regards to how much to hold in your buy on dip fund.   Through my whole time in bitcoin, I have always had some kind of a buy on dip fund, but surely we know that for any of us, there are going to be times in which the buy on dip funds end up getting depleted or mostly depleted.. so if we remain bullish about bitcoin, then we begin to have more and more regrets when we don't have much if any money left to buy BTC on dips when it keeps dipping..., so we might be forced into a kind of HODL status when we don't have any money left to buy.

Who the hell knows if bitcoin prices are going to go down from here are what the odds are to breach various downity support points..?  So at least now we are back above the 200-week moving average which is just shy of $28k right now.

You do seem to be wanting to put so much emphasis on bitcoin's supposed correlation with various macro-calamities, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin will go down from here or that it might not go up before it goes down (if such liquidation dynamics end up playing out at some future date).

Hopefully, you will not end up having too many regrets if it ends up that your seemingly overly-preparation for the dip does not end up causing you either FOMO or just sitting it out for too long and/or actually missing out on buying that you could have had been doing.. and many bitter bitcoiners sometimes end up becoming low coiners or no coiners over such kinds of downity expectations that end up not coming true... which goes back to the expression that each of us should be attempting to balance our preparations for either direction at least a sufficient amount that we are not going to have regrets if the BTC does not move in the direction of our dominant expectation.


There surely are some people who are not in a position to invest.  They have to have discretionary income, which is cashflow that exceeds there expenses.. which would also include that they have made some preparations for an emergency fund of 3-6 months.. .. so yeah, if they do not have discretionary income then they are not in a financial position to invest into bitcoin or into anything else.


That tends to be one of the problems that gamblers have.. they end up using more money than their allocation.. so I suppose in that regard, there are levels of degeneracy when it comes to gambling and some gamblers are more degenerate than others.


Likely true... most gamblers are not actually making money from their gambling... there are some who do, but surely likely to be a relatively small number (in terms of percentage)


I would think that there are many gamblers who are able to set limits for themselves.. maybe even a majority.. but yeah, gambling can be addictive.


If you manage to find some source of income that you are able to keep in bitcoin (once it is already in bitcoin), then that is not very much different from someone who earns fiat and is able to perhaps set aside some of his/her fiat to buy bitcoin.. whether that is something like $10 per week or some other amount that may perhaps vary in amount, too.,,,

So then the question becomes whether or not a person has discretionary income (which is the amount of cashflow incoming that exceeds expenses) and even if the person does not believe that s/he has a sufficient quantity of discretionary income to be able to invest into anything (whether bitcoin or otherwise), such person might force himself/herself to be aware of the idea that bitcoin exists and to consider that if s/he ever wants to attempt to get into a better place in life in the future, then there might need to be some additional discipline in order to be able to figure out a way to set aside some of his/her income in order to buy bitcoin.

Yes, I know that there are people who are really poor and who might not be able to get themself to a position in which they are able to buy bitcoin, but there are a lot of people who also do have certain kinds of areas in which they would be able to either increase their income (like you did with your signature campaign participation) or to decrease their expenses, maybe in their selection of the kinds or quantities of goods or services that they consume... and I am not even necessarily going to claim that i know all the answers nor to suggest that everyone is able to accomplish such a thing as $10 per week.. because sometimes, if they are investing with money that they actually are going to need for their expenses (within the next few years.. at minimum), then they are gambling rather than investing.