I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Odusko in regards to both the advantages of DCA and the difficuties to figure out BTC price directions during short timelines; however, I may had misspoken a little bit in terms of whether I consider it to be realistic or even meaningful to be labelling switches from bullmarket (or bullcycle) in terms of short-term BTC price happenings, and in that regard, I refuse to accept some of the traditional market assessments regarding what is considered to be bull or bear markets, and largely so far in bitcoin's history, price cycles have tended to play out in four year periods, and it can be quite difficult to know (or to have solid conviction) whether a bottom (or a top) is in, and frequently we are not going to really know until quite far down the road, so there is a bit of a lagging indication regarding whether the bear market is over or the bull market is over.. ..
Yet, even within a bull market we can experience strong and lasting price corrections that would not necessarily constitute that the bull market is over, and in my thinking, merely because we experience a variety of large and/or lasting corrections within bull markets does not justify that the sub movement should be called bear/bull trends.. merely because they are either corrections or they are runs within an overall trend that had not really been broken.
So currently there are questions in regards to whether the $15,479 bottom from November 20, 2022 is the actual bottom for what had been determined to have had been a bear market.. and so whether we have yet transitioned into a bull market or not can still be unclear, and even negated in the event that BTC prices were to return to somewhere within close proximity of those kinds of $15,479 price levels or even go lower.
Even though no one can speculate on the direction Bitcoin will go in whatever price trend either in a dip or bull run Bitcoin market, the ability to make a proper Dollar cost of Bitcoin in whatever price trend will away put the investors in a profitable position.
I cannot disagree with any of that, and to even agree that BTC's price volatility is one of the matters that is closest to inevitable, even though we cannot be completely sure about what direction that the volatility and/or price is going to go, and the ONLY way that we end up profiting from DCA is if the overall trend of BTC is ultimately in an upwards direction. If BTC price direction ends up spiraling down forever, then DCA ends up NOT paying off.. so there is a bit of a presumption that at some point(s) down the road, BTC prices are going to be higher than current prices and higher than prices in which we are currently buying BTC.. otherwise, DCA would not necessarily work.. which is the case with shitcoins.. we cannot presume that the prices of shitcoins will go up, but it seems fair and reasonable to have some presumptions that we are regularly investing into bitcoin because we believe that ultimately BTC's price is going to trend upward. even if it might take a while to play out and even if the price might not end up going up as high as we might wished it to go...so long as it generally trends up we end up being profitable (and surely, when time comes to potentially cash out some or all of our BTC, then it would be preferred that the BTC price has gone up higher than it's price and also accounting for the devaluation of the dollar that likely will come too)... so we want BTC price appreciation to be profitable in "real terms", and not just nominal terms, while realizing that we are making an asymmetric bet in which our odds seem to be pretty damned good, even while there is no guarantee that our investment will actually end up being profitable in "real terms."
In dollar terms, we should be better off in 9 years, even if we invest relatively small amounts, and for sure one of the advantages of investing into bitcoin is that we can choose the amount that we believe that we can afford in terms of how aggressive that we want to be, even if we are ONLY able to invest $10 each time that we buy whether we can do that every week or not... but even if we can ONLY invest small amounts, bitcoin does allow us to be able to do that, even though we might need to search and research either a service or a person who is willing to trade with us, even if each of the amounts is low... such as ONLY $10 at a time.
It's probably better to be trying to invest into bitcoin longer.. since 2025 is only 2 years from now.. and bitcoin is likely a 4-10 year or longer investment, if you figure out ways to invest in it with those kinds of longer timelines...which will also likely result in compounding affects upon your investment, too.
from that I think we have the same goal of collecting btc in the long term and it won't trigger a strong reaction to do aggressively because we have to be able to balance the income we get. we can follow the DCA strategy but we can't follow the instructions to do aggressively it's a bit hard for us.
Well, maybe my examples are too big for some people, as you suggested ginsan, but you still should be able to figure out numbers that work for your scenario in order to figure out how aggressive would be sufficiently aggressive or what levels might be overly aggressive for you and for your situation (including considering whether you have potential for greater earning power or even potential to cut back on certain costs - but for some folks it might be difficult to imagine higher numbers without some kinds of BIG changes in their own circumstances, so they have to work with what they have in front of them).
And, i understand that some people are in situations in which the wages are not very high, and it may be a bit difficult to work towards increasing wages, so the more practical angle is to consider how aggressive that the person is able to be within the wages that s/he already earns, which may well be way lower than the numbers that I had presented... .and even within whatever numbers that you are working, there are going to be varying levels in which you are able to be aggressive and varying levels in which you are making choices about what kinds of things you want to buy (or invest into) with whatever income that you might have left after you have paid for your necessities.... so there is an expression that people who do not have "discretionary" income are not able to invest.. which makes sense because no one should be investing into bitcoin with money that they have to pay for food or rent or some other basic living expense(s), so if those people with little to no discretionary income do want to invest (into bitcoin or into anything else), then they have to figure out ways to build their situations in such a way that they do end up having "discretionary" income..otherwise they are stuck.. without any investments at all..