Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 454. (Read 108168 times)

Like watering a plant we must give it just enough and not too much or it will sink or end up with a wilted portfolio. I think it's all about balance but you may also be tempted to take risks or withdraw some of your investment at any time.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying ginsan.. especially that each of us needs to attempt to find a budget that will work for us, and that is sufficiently aggressive, while at the same time NOT being overly aggressive as to cause us to make bad choices.

You can imagine that someone who might have an income of $100 per week, and they are able to buy $15 per week in bitcoin, so that is 15% of their income, so in about 6.66 years, they will have saved up the equivalent of their yearly income.   It can be very tempting for a lot of folks to withdraw some of their investment or to make some risky moves because they might feel relatively rich, as compared with people in their circles, because most people are not able to save money. and to build an investment portfolio.. now if your investment ends up going up in value, then it may well take less time to get to 1 years salary saved up/invested, and of course there are no guarantees, but many of us likely can appreciate how some aspects of will power and focus and even abilities to make moderately reasonable and prudent decisions when we might be tempted to remove value within our investment portfolio before it has been allowed to compound upon itself.. . and so in some sense there are needs to regularly reinforce your plans and the reasons why you are following the plans that you are following, including sometimes tweaking your plan in order to make up for various weaknesses that you might have, mistakes that you might make along the way.. and to be careful NOT to overdo the tweaks but to make sure that you are able to accept whatever tweaks that you make or whatever choices that you might make to stay on the same path.. and I am also referring to changes that might happen in your life including your income could change and you also could be tempted to invest in other things and/or to consume, and some of the choices could be reasonably made, and other times there could be mistakes.

in implementing a buying strategy i adjust the passive income to a ability level that i can be sure will not be touched over a long period of time in making an investment, there is no compulsion to increase the buying percentage i mean if i regularly invest $15 in bitcoin i keep doing it with  capital of $15 every week because it will not burden me in financial problems. it's a fairly small number, but if I succeed in 10 years it will be quite a fantastic savings that I have made.

I think if $15 per week is invested in bitcoin then we are not worried about every correction that occurs even when the price goes up 15% we don't see the profit coming to us because the capital we invest is quite small but the understanding here we will continue to buy in the long term  long until in the end we will have 1 btc.

I am not yet a professional in Bitcoin, but I just happen to always stay positive, no matter if the price is falling. If I had known quite a few good Bitcoiners in my area, maybe it would have been a real encouragement to me. I know how I felt after Luna crashed and also after FTX collapsed; I then began to wonder what if it happened one day that Bitcoin too collapsed, but I just got one hope going, which I don't know if it's good or not, but the thing is that I think it's good to invest in Bitcoin and also in other landed assets and commodities. Like you mentioned, investing $100 or $10 per week is really good.

Thanks for this tips, sir. It's just correct; we can buy and hold, which can give more profit during a bull market or halving period, but if one decides to hold fiat, inflation will just reduce the value of the money so that it can only buy a few things.


Why I don't just regret arriving late to bitcoin investment is because I know if I keep DCA and Hold up for long enough, I will still make the profit I am supposed to by then. There are people who have lots of Bitcoiners in their area, and these opportune people are not taking Bitcoin seriously, not knowing that people like myself had even wished for that opportunity earlier but did not see any, and that's what made me lag behind.

We keep going over the same points or perhaps very similar points.. and sure no problem.. yet you keep raising your points as if they were good (or something novel), and they are not.   

Part of the reason that your points are not good is because you assert them as if they were absolutes and you fail/refuse to put actual numbers behind your assertions or even to really flesh out the ramifications of what you are saying.. which seems to be a kind of expectation that anyone may well be employing DCA merely because they bought too high..

I say that the principle of DCA and getting the fuck started applies no matter the size of the budget, and really any of us should be figuring out what our budget is in order to know how much we are able to DCA without running out of money.. whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that is within our budget, and it is up to each of us to figure out how large our budget can be, and sure $100 per week may well be out of reach of a lot of normies, so if you do not like to use $100 per week as a presumptive budget then tell me what kind of a budget that you would like to use.

$10 per week?   or is that too much?  $10 per month?  

The budget can be whatever.. and any of us should still be able to employ DCA strategies and also hold some of the value aside in order to be able to buy on dips, too... and so how to divide that up, depends upon the numbers, and yeah if the cashflow is not consistent than that is another obstacle, but it does not necessarily preclude DCAing.  On the other hand, if the finances are so bad that a person is not able to actually put aside any money for investing, then that's another story too, but most people can figure out ways to put aside some kind of money by either earning more or spending less, and surely some folks live in place in which the salaries are low and other people live in places where things cost a lot... but that does not necessarily mean that they are not able to save or to invest, and once there is some amount of cashflow that can be saved or invested, then the strategies that come from that tend to fall into the main three which are DCA (which is the best) buying on dip, and lump sum.. and of course, HODL is likely a kind of fall back position.. which might mean that some screw up had occurred or maybe some other irregular kinds of circumstances.. which is not most people's situation.. even though everyone likely has various phases in their lives where it is more difficult to generate cashflow or to have any discretionary income.. and so of course, anyone who lives with exceptional circumstances needs to account for their exceptional circumstances, yet I am surely not going to presume exceptional circumstances.. so we probably should be trying to talk about base case and more common strategies and scenarios that should be applied rather than assuming exceptional circumstances.... which seems to be what you continuously want to do... talk about exceptional circumstances as if they were the base case.

So, yeah maybe $10 per week feels like it is not enough to be able to divide or whatever, but when we are presenting these kinds of hypotheticals, it is best start with some kind of a number, and if your whole budget that is available for investing into bitcoin is $10 per week, then maybe you might choose to ONLY DCA with $5 per week and you save the other $5 per week for buying on dips.. the fact of the matter is that you can work your amounts into your various categories, even if they are small amounts, and hopefully the longer that any of us invest into bitcoin, then the more likely our numbers should be getting BIGGER.. and surely no guarantees that the BTC price is going to go up, either, and it could take a long time to build up our investment portfolio, too.. especially someone who has a budget of $10 per week is going to likely build an investment portfolio that is 10x smaller than the person who has a budget of $100 per week and the one with a $1,000 per week will be able to build a portfolio 100x the size of the $10 per week person and 10x the size of the $100 per week person..  

Anyhow, we can go back over these various hypotheticals if you want, and I think that you are wrong when you are suggesting to wait for a dip in 2019, when you could have had started investing in bitcoin in 2013... It is just a ridiculous assertion, and yeah maybe you were too scared and whatever, and maybe you did not learn about bitcoin well enough for 6 years that you should have studied it a wee bit better, and it does not even matter what the price is going to do, get the fuck started, and don't be waiting.. and in the end, you can do what you like, but really getting started seems to be the best approach for anyone (historically it has been the best strategy to get started investing in bitcoin sooner rather than later, and really there is no evidence that either bitcoin's investment thesis is weaker with the passage of time, and there also is no evidence that similar kinds of assertive/aggressive accumulation strategies are not going to continue to have better chances to pay off rather than either whimpy approaches or wait and see approaches,  and even if the amount that is invested into bitcoin is a relatively small amount, after a couple of years of investing $10 per week, or whatever, anyone who had already been investing into bitcoin should be in a way better position to reassess his/her particular situation, and if the investment happens to be in the negative after a couple lf years, the right strategy is probably to just keep going/continuing with the same approach.. and maybe after 4-10 years of continuing to invest the results will start to be felt a bit better.. and even though there are no real guarantees, it is likely that we are going to have better understandings regarding whether or how to tweak our BTC accumulation techniques rather than than if we had waited several years before we even got started... So part of the point has frequently been to get started sooner rather than later... and to have time in the market rather than timing the market.. and again.. no guarantees.. do what you like... even though I continue to say get started sooner rather than later and at least figure out what your plan is going to be.. even if it ends up being a relatively whimpy plan... It is better to have a plan, especially in regards to something like bitcoin, than to not have a plan.


You seem to be mixing up DCA'ing and buying on dip.  By definition, you do not run out of money when DCA'ing because you are buying the same amount every week mo matter what.  

Many folks may well run out of money when buying on dip because there is a tendency to deploy extra money as the price is dipping, and as we know it keeps dipping... so part of the problem with any kind of trying to time the price direction is still figuring out how much of a dip is a dip... and it is not easy to get it correct, but with DCA, you don't try to calculate, you just establish a budget and you keep buying.

Of course, you can combine DCA and buying on dip, but that still is not necessarily asserting that you should give up on one or the other, but you could try to play both of them, and you should not get them mixed up..... even if you might say you are DCAing when you are not because some folks may well be buying more when they believe the price is lower and then buying less when the price is higher, and then such folks are NO longer DCAing, but instead employing some kind of a hybrid model.  

You can create separate budgets for buying on dip and DCAing and you can also have certain strategies that you employ if a large sum of money comes to you in which you allocate parts of the money towards each of the three categories... Let's say, for example, that all of a sudden you get an extra $2,400 that comes to you, and you won the lottery or something.  You could do whatever you like with that $2,400, but you also could assign 1/3 to each of the three categories.... $800 towards lump sum investing in which you buy it right away, $800 towards DCAing where you might spread it over 26 weeks or some other amount of time and in that case 26 weeks would give you nearly $31 per week.. and the remaining $800 could be for buying on dips, and maybe you already have some value that you have assigned towards buying on dips, but you just end up adding the $800 to your already existing plan.. so maybe every time the BTC price drops $1,000, you buy an additional $100 (so that prepares you down $8k from the current price.. so currently might prepare you down to $20k), but you may decide that you are not going to start to buy on dips until the price gets below $24k, and so then you might be able to add $100 per $1k drop down to $16k.. and of course, you can divide it up however you like in regards to how far you would like to prepare down for while also understanding that if the price does not drop down then you are not going to end up using that money.. and if the price drops down further  you are going to run out.. so you have to figure out for yourself in regards to how you would like to balance those three categories.. and if you would rather wait than to have a plan, then that's your choice... or if you want to hypothesize that the problem is that you are too poor and blah blah blah.. then that's your choice.. I still believe that you can plan whether you are rich or poor and you just figure out how you want to deploy your budget in a way that you believe is good for your situation... and if you believe that waiting is what you want to do, then that's your choice.. even though I doubt that waiting is a good plan.. and I continue to repeat that.

But what many people fail to objectively recognize is capital for many/most of us plebs is limited. We need to wait, even if there's a risk that we might make our bids higher than originally intended. Imagine DCA-ing from ATH because "Get in now or have fun staying poor", then running out of capital by the DIP to $30,000, then seeing the investment go to $15,000. It's better to have waited in my opinion because we should be front-running the institutions, not them front-running us.

It is very relevant and I think it is also important to develop a personalized strategy that takes individual financial and psychological circumstances into account, rather than trying to pursue risky tactics. By investing with patience and discipline, anyone can potentially profit from Bitcoin without thinking too much about the short-term market fluctuations of Bitcoin's growth over time.

I mostly agree with what you said DaNNy001 - except when you consider that it is important to consider when you might "sell" then you likely do not understand bitcoin very well.. and also your use of the term "crypto" also shows that you may well not really understand what is bitcoin and maybe what bitcoin's value proposition is.... beyond merely considering it on a superficial "number goes up" kind of perspective.  Another thing when you focus on trying to figure out when to sell, you may well potentially end up either getting yourself into trouble by selling too much BTC too early.. or just formulating the wrong kind of mind-set in terms of how to think about bitcoin as an investment and how to attempt to deal with its likely ongoing volatility.. including perhaps being able to figure out how to continue to accumulate bitcoin, even if it is inevitably going to be volatile in the coming 4-10 years and even longer (further into the future).


I would also not get very worked up about "making big profits" but instead preparing the feel more comforts the more that the bitcoin that you have accumulated are in profits, and surely there are strategies to continue to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer and to really be able to be advantaged by both bitcoin being in profits, but also the likely compounding effects of being in bitcoin for several cycles, and of course there are no guarantees, and there are also some ways that any of us should be able to strategize and to employ our bitcoin accumulation and maintenance strategies in order to make sure we are able to profit from our involvement in bitcoin without getting too worked up about trying to trade bitcoin or to fuck around with those kinds of risky tactics.... while at the same time, each person has to figure out the path and strategy that is most comfortable in regards to his/her own personal financial and psychological circumstances.

The many opportunities that exist are sometimes often wasted because they are too worried about the fud circulating out there. Some of them have great belief and that is the characteristic of those who are successful in the end. Indeed we have seen a in the movement of btc when it reached $ 69k and a year after ATH BTC fell to a price of $16k now on such occasions there are still some people who have weak hands selling at $16k and if we look at this price even we compare of course BTC has turned things around from $16k up to a price of $28k as of today and its just lucky for those who HOLD.

My conclusion is that maybe it's never too late to buy BTC even though we will buy in small amounts but if it is done regularly every week then we will also have the hope of getting big profits when Big Pumps come or when new ATH is reached.

Just like you, I also miss those opportunity to buy when the price was significantly low not because there was no funds  but because of the lack of knowledge towards bitcoin or should I say I had a wrong perception of bitcoin, but its was not until the massive growth and awareness of bitcoin in NIGERIA and my locality to be specific that really got me curious toward the trend that is bitcoin and thanks to my curiousity, I have learnt a lot as from the time I was guided to this wonderful forum. But am still not all that regretful though because of the fact that the  price still went low to 16k last year after hitting its ATH in 2021 and I was lead to know and understand that instead of whining I should rather see it as a second chance and a golden oppurtinity to buy btc during last year dip and do what most successful crypto investors do which is to HODL till the prices goes up and significant enough to sell.

On a personal level, I am not against exchanges or the use of exchanges, and I believe that it is our rights to be able to use exchanges, and it is quite likely that various governments are overreaching in their various ways to prosecute and/or to attack exchanges.

At the same time, each of us has to be practical in terms of our living in the real world and how much that we might end up losing if we have too much of our money in places that are targeted by governments or they get shut down and/or we might not get our money back.

We also have to figure out in accordance with our jurisdiction (the area that we are) how much there might be attempts to punish bitcoiners, or maybe they say that they are ONLY targeting shitcoiners or scammers, but in recent times, there frequently is not very great clarity in terms of what is being stated as being lawful or unlawful and there are surely evolving aspects of the law in accordance with bitcoin, so we should be attempting to be careful in regards to how much that we might end up becoming a target or if there might be ways that we can engage in reasonable economic activities using bitcoin and also to preserve and prepare for our own futures using bitcoin.

I am not against the government and I am not against banks, yet there still can be issues in which different entities and even representatives within the various entities have differing opinions regarding what is acceptable and what is not acceptable, and some of them are wrong and uninformed, and others merely have differing perspectives.

Sometimes there might be abilities to move from one jurisdiction to another (which sometimes could be moving to another country), but for sure, not everyone is easily able to move and some people do not want to move to another country, yet there also sometimes could be locations within certain countries in which there is more bitcoin-friendliness or even more bitcoin related networking opportunities, so the options of what is available and how to fit those matters into our lives is not going to be the same for everyone.  If we live in a very hostile jurisdiction, then surely we may well want to choose whether we buy bitcoin or if we might try to be more secretive about buying bitcoin.. but still there could be some risks in some jurisdictions, but the mere fact that there are risks should not necessarily cause someone to completely forget about bitcoin since there may be some ways in which we are being lied to about bitcoin and about options in regards to bitcoin because some people are trying to dissuade us from acting within our own interest which is to make sure that we have a sufficient and adequate amount of bitcoin that fits our personal circumstances.  There are some folks who lie about this matter and say that we should not have or even want bitcoin because everything is fine with fiat systems, and most of us should be able to recognize and appreciate that such assertions about "no problems with fiat" are not true....

Also, there are some people who believe that they should convert completely to bitcoin, and I don't believe that is a good idea either, and there are likely needs to be able to operate in both the fiat and the bitcoin world while we are transitioning to bitcoin, and it could take 100 to 200 years to convert to bitcoin, so many of us might not even live to get to some place in which bitcoin is the complete standard, so there surely are going to be a lot of needs to continue to have exposure to various fiat systems for many years to come.... and personally, I believe that a lot of those guys who are engaging in behaviors to have "everything in bitcoin" are likely making themselves too much of a target.. but surely some people may well want to be targets.. and that is their choice..

I have been concerned for a while about what you mentioned when various exchanges were threatened with invasion. Luckily for me when the FTX exchange collapsed I had a plan a few days ago to put some money and buy some FTX tokens. But the collapse of FTX a few days later got me puzzled. I certainly would have lost a big amount.

There is lot of discussion and criticism about Bitcoin in my local area. Most of the transactions are done through the Binance P2P. One can easily buy bitcoins from there. I have also noticed that people who understand a little about Bitcoin still love to keep their money in the exchange. They still show no interest in other wallets. But there is a social awareness among them that they are very interested in Bitcoin. Some even save a small amount of bitcoins. I think it's really admirable that they have such a good idea about Bitcoin. When bitcoin roars again the number of rich people in my local area will increase ‍significantly.

Yep.. .it is interesting how each of us took different approaches to our BTC investment, and we defend the approach that we took, and so in that regard, there may well be some individual particulars (rather than objectivity) that causes us to attempt to justify that what we did as the better of the approaches for our own circumstances... so in that regard, we also recommend such approach to others - the approach that we had taken.

I am kind of thinking that any reasonable delay towards investing into bitcoin would have been backed up by having some reservations about the fundamental nature of the asset and/or perhaps not having enough finances to be able to begin sooner rather than later... and generally speaking with the vast majority of foundationally sound investments, it is better to have more time in the market rather than attempting to time the market.. even though of course, in retrospect, we can many times point to examples in which there had been a subsequent dip in the price of the asset in order to justify waiting rather than getting started in investing right away.

For example, sometimes we could look at an investment and we can see that it is in the midst of a "blow off" top, yet we still do not necessarily know how long the blow off top is going to continue and we also do not know whether the price is going to correct back down into the price that we currently see.. so in some sense in order to prepare for either direction, it could well be better to just get the fuck in rather than waiting around... and yeah, there may well not need to be any ball to the walls type of an approach, but still to get some stake in the game in order to be prepared for either price direction - especially since if you do not get in at all then you are ONLY prepared for one direction (which is down)...

And, so in regard towards assessing fundamentals, any of us could look at bitcoin and attempt to categorize it as merely the same or similar to other investments that are available, and surely that could well be and continue to be a mistake that many people make when they are looking at bitcoin and they are fucking around with inaccurate comparisons, so when the time comes to invest into it, they end up playing their investment card way too timidly because they have failed/refused to adequately research into figuring out what bitcoin is.

So yeah.. do what you want.. wait if you believe that is a better approach.. advise others to wait if you believe that is a better approach, and hopefully no one is going to blame you too much because you ended up spending way too many efforts timing a dip that may or may not come..

And, perhaps one of the main differences that I am attempting to emphasize on a regular basis is to make sure that you are prepared for either direction, and you do not get sufficiently/adequately prepared for up by waiting... but yeah, you can do what you want.. and wait.. and thereby have fun staying poor.

 


 



Yes.. there are a lot of ways to fuck up in bitcoin, but if you still end up mostly accumulating and holding, you still end up profiting, and surely there are many times in which I have seen people have failed/refused to invest aggressively enough and failed/refused to protect their stash enough.  I might even be a bit guilty of that myself (at least the second part) since I have lost some of my BTC towards keeping too much on exchanges, and sims attacks can be fairly brutal when they happen, even though there seems to be more awareness of sims attacks now as compared with the past, but the practice of sims attacking continues to take place a lot.. and probably is more prevalent now as compared with my early 2017 sims attack situation.


For sure, one of the problems that anyone can have is to figure out how to get bitcoin in their particular area or the various ways to get it, including potentially attempting to network with other bitcoiners who might be in their area.. and surely there are some areas in which there are not as many bitcoiners or there are not clear ways for bitcoiners to meet and to know each other in terms of having some ways to build a circular economy... so in that regard, if you new more bitcoiners as a newbie, then there could be ways to both learn directly from more experienced bitcoiners and also to perhaps even buy directly from someone you know or who you get to know in your local area.

There have always been some aspects of bitcoin that have been scary that might dissuade newbies from wanting to get involved in bitcoin and perhaps some of the more recent attacks on exchanges might cause people to worry about getting involved in bitcoin, even though maybe the better course of action still might be to get involved in bitcoin, but to figure out ways to self-store decent portions of whatever bitcoin that you end up buying.

So, yeah we are getting back to the various ways in which just getting started and getting involved is likely going to be the better of the teachers, even if many of us likely shared in our having a lot of misconceptions regarding what is bitcoin and the fact that we can buy small amounts at a time - so long as we can find someone or some entity willing to sell us bitcoin in such small increments.... and the longer that we are into bitcoin, the more we learn and likely the more that we could well end up being inspired to learn more.

Of course, people likely already have demands upon their time, so there is a certain amount of dedication that is needed when learning and getting involved in any new thing - so in that regard, there are needs for motivation to believe that it is important to learn about something like bitcoin, and frequently people might get overwhelmed because they think that it is too confusing, and so in that regard, frequently there are ways to attempt to just learn little by little and the more that we learn then the more that we are able to understand more complicated aspects of bitcoin, and there are a lot of us who have been in bitcoin for a very long time, but still we may only know certain parts of bitcoin or certain angles of bitcoin, so it is not easy to really get some comprehensive understandings of all areas of bitcoin - but we still do not need to know everything or to know all areas in order to get started buying bitcoin and to attempt to learn while investing, and even just figuring out ways to buy small amounts such as $100 per week or even $10 per week, while ongoingly setting aside some time to learn more about it at the same time while initially building a position that might be a pretty small position  and some people do not even have a lot of spare cash, so those people likely are better off by just investing small amounts as they are doing their initial learning about bitcoin.. and yeah, they may end up with regrets that they did not invest more earlier on, but that's just the way of the world.. not everything is fair, and if some of us recognize that there might be some important aspects of bitcoin that we might be missing, then we might end up getting motivated to spend more time learning about it rather than either waiting or just taking a long time to learn about it.

Just like you, I missed the dip in 2019. I don't deeply regret starting my Bitcoin investment late, but I do regret what the amount I would have invested in Bitcoin then has turned into in 2021. but due to my lack of knowledge about Bitcoin then, I started hearing about it in 2018 and 2019. But at the time, I didn't even know anything about blockchain technology; I didn't know where I could buy or sell  bitcoin because I wasn't aware of CEX, DEX, or anything like P2P. The worst thing that could happen to someone is when they are not informed or when they lack proper knowledge about something very useful. The worst of it then was that I never knew that I could buy BTC with $500–$680. All I thought was that for me to buy Bitcoin, I needed enough money that could cost 1 bitcoin. I was not aware that I could have just used the $600+ I had then to buy Bitcoin. In 2021, with BTC's new ATH, I had regrets about the 0.165 bitcoin I would have bought in January 2019 with just $600+, because the price of 1BTC was still $3,800+ then. I am not claiming to be a professional now, but with the little knowledge I have gained, I try to buy when I see an opportunity to, gladly using dollar cost averaging to accumulate gradually, no matter how small.

I would honestly rather be the person who had the opportunity to have learned, TRULY LEARNED, about Bitcoin during 2013 and bought with most of my savings just as I did during 2019. That would be for my main investment wallet placed in cold storage, never to be touched until "Bitcoin at six digits". Then I would DCA for small amounts placed in a hot wallet.

But that said, in a very long time frame, it wouldn't matter. We are not HODLing mainly because we could profit in fiat, although it's nice to see that our investment is positive.

You are likely not going to be able to completely correct your mistake of failing refusing to buy bitcoin in the upper $3ks in 2017, and likely it is not a good thing to engage in gambling and/or desperation kinds of measures to try to prove something like that to be able to "make up for your earlier mistake" which largely ends up being an oversight that lasted for several years.. perhaps 4 years before you started to reevaluate the situation, and even when you might have become more serious about bitcoin, many of us realize the old saying that time in the market is way more important than timing the market, and many of us have to go through a process of actually being in bitcoin for a while, riding the various BTC price waves, and really attempting to ongoingly practice our conviction, and surely not every person is going to practice their conviction in the same kind of ways, and some people take longer than others, and quite a few people panic along the way or get diverted into shitcoins into gambling practices or just bad overall practices that might not allow them to be their most aggressive self when it comes to BTC accumulation without going so far overboard as to end up overdoing their level of aggressiveness in such a way that it is neither no longer in line with their finances or their psychology...

so yeah, it takes time.. it takes time..

it also likely takes practice, it takes practice...

and probably it takes reevaluation and tweaking from time to time too.. a kind of ongoing studying of the space, but not so much studying that you lose sight of the prize, which has been king daddy bitcoin, continues to be king daddy bitcoin and there is no meaningful evidence to suggest that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker with the passage of time, even if its price happens to be higher now in contrast to various historical prices that it has had. and likely continues to be higher with the passage of time, even if there has been a lot of BTC price volatility along the way, and there is also no real evidence to show that BTC's volatility is going to go away anytime soon.. and perhaps not even for another decade or more.... which likely continues to justify that bitcoin continues to be a decently good investment vehicle with quite a few longer term upside especially for anyone who may well have an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer.

I agree with you. If I talk about my past history I saw a big bearish trend in Bitcoin in 2017 which was a turning point for me but failed to capitalize on that time. I had no idea about Bitcoin at that time. As a result, I could not take any correct decision about it. $3868 seemed to me to be the biggest pessimism in Bitcoin at the time. But when I came back in 2021, my perception of Bitcoin changed. I then felt like I was one of the unlucky ones on earth who missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $3868. The little bit of bitcoin I've learned to value today has always been universal to me. I now find it useful enough to control emotions. And now my highest focus is on how to correct my mistakes a little bit. At the level Bitcoin is at I may have had that opportunity come back to me when I couldn't buy. Because the probability is very high. If Bitcoin hits 1 million then my currently bought Bitcoins will be able to get me to that point. I am constantly trying to accumulate a very small amount of bitcoins on my holding.

Well, if we use your forum registration date as the time you got started in bitcoin, then surely there would have likely been quite the dilemma about what to do, when you are entering into an area in which there was a lot of disputes at that time, and also the BTC price had already run up to reach ATHs again at the beginning of the year, but there were also questions/concerns that the price was going to crash back below $500 before resuming up... so there were quite a few folks (whether newbies or not) who were either talked out of their coins or perhaps persuaded to wait... which in either case of selling at that time or waiting could have caused a certain amount of getting fucked by the then bad predominant advice.

So yeah your potentially earlier days into BTC in April 2017 could well have had provided an opportunity to get some BTC below the subsequent lowest BTC price points in 2018/2019/2020 (which would have been abilities to accumulate BTC at various price points between $1k and $3k and surely more fortunate to accumulate closer to $1k.. even though any of those prices between $1k and $3k feel pretty good right now) - even though frequently it can be hard to practically exercise such a practice to lump sum front load your investment into BTC because you may well have not had enough value available to inject into BTC and we really ONLY know from subsequent events that the BTC price did not drop back below $3,124 and surely even getting BTC below $4k after September 2017 was a pretty uncommon (infrequent) occurrence.

So in that regard, it was not always clear to know that sub $4k coins were not really going to be very easy to obtain after September 2017, and even in recent times, there had been thoughts that BTC prices were going to allow for BTC to be purchased below $4k.. yet by now, there are a lot of folks who now realize that the sub-$4k ship sailed long ago.. and any actually ability to get coins below sub $4k after September 2017 had been for ONLY short-periods of time and you better be ready, willing and able to act when such opportunities are presented to you.

There might be some truth in regards to sub-$20k having a similar kind of fate.. and so when we passed above $20k in December 2020, many of us might not have realized that the quantity of time to be able to purchase BTC below $20k was limited, and even our recent fortune to have quite a lot of opportunities to buy BTC below $20k between June 2022 and as recently as two weeks ago may well have been the end of an era... even though currently, I am not quite so confident to proclaim that the current local bottom of $15,479 is in (from November 2022), yet in 2 or 3 years, we might start to consider sub $20k prices for BTC as a similar kind of phenomena that we currently consider sub $4k BTC to be.. something that is hardly likely to happen (perhaps less than 1% odds.. which are "non-zero" odds, but not anything that any of us (who are trying to live in the real world with prudent and realistic approaches to our financial and psychological lives) should be putting any kind of serious preparations into pie in the sky events).


Exactly!  Part of the reason that I believe that it is better to mostly attempt to plan our BTC strategies around bottom price scenarios, including that I still believe that the 200-week moving average serves as a pretty strong and decent bottom indicator - even though in recent times, we spent nearly 9 months of mostly being below the 200-week moving average, which has so far been a pretty uncommon occurrence in BTC, but still way safer than planning around the top BTC prices, such as the top of the cycle that you had mentioned in late 2017/early 2018.

By the way, currently the 200-week moving average is right at about $25,427; however, when we first went below it in June 2022, it was around $22,200-ish.  https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/    So the 200-week moving average has continued to move up, but staying mostly below it for around 9 months has surely caused its upward slope to become more graduated in recent times.. but for me, it still seems to be a pretty decent ongoing bottom indicator.. even if BTC prices might still go below it again.. but still way safer in terms of financial and psychological health to plan around bottoms rather than tops.


For sure, there is going to be some individual variance in regards to what might be the better ways to attempt to deal with BTC's likely inevitable volatility - and one of the difficulties is that we know that BTC is going to be volatile even while at the same time, we cannot be completely sure which direction or how much.

So part of the problem that any newbie normie has when coming into bitcoin is to figure out how much cashflow (or capital) to initially allocate to bitcoin, and then how much to allocate on an ongoing basis, because even though most people have some abilities to figure out and calculate matters related to their own finances and psychology, there still are unknowns in regards to personal finances and psychology and then there is the additional unknown about how to treat bitcoin as compared to other investment opportunties, so in the end all of those various knowns and unknowns have to be combined in order to come up with a individually tailored strategy that allows for a certain level of comfort that is not completely vulnerable to the BTC price extremes that might come, so there can be some ways to calculate BTC's volatility in terms of projecting out various extremes and then therefore turn one of the unknowns into more of a known - even though it still can be difficult, even if any of us has already projected out what we are going to do and how we are going to go forward even if some extreme scenarios (even beyond our calculations) ends up playing out.

Some people proclaim that we need to be through one whole BTC price cycle in order to really start to become comfortable with BTC's price volatility and whatever might be our BTC accumulation/maintenance approach, but surely it is possible that some of us might need to go through a few of those cycles before becoming comfortable, even though being in profits likely helps to bring comfort, but at the same time, depending upon how old any of us might be, it can take a real long time to build up the principle in any investment, even if that investment has been largely doing better than expected (or maybe even better than other investment opportunties that seem to be available).


Hahahahaha  .. Yeah.  It is funny how even a small kind of an obstacle can keep any of us "in check" during some of the times in which we are feeling some inclinations to "take some off the table," and for sure, we can never know for sure if we made the right decision until much further down the road.. so many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while have had those kinds of moments of potential weakness.. and we can probably recognize and appreciate that those kinds of potential moments of weakness likely subside more and more the longer that we are in bitcoin because as any of us should be able to imagine that there are guys who have average costs of $1 per BTC, $10 per BTC,$100 per BTC, $1,000 per BTC, $10k per BTC, $30k per BTC, $40k per BTC, $60k per BTC, and perhaps some other variations, and many of us likely can imagine that the lower is our average cost per BTC, then the less likely that we are going to get worried about dips that come further down the road because they are likely not as significant... even if such dips might still bother us.

And the considerations of having regret and/or psychological pressures are not ONLY about the average cost per BTC, because there are some cases of guys who might have ONLY invested small amounts of value into bitcoin, and they have been worried about keeping their average price per BTC down.  Let's take the guy who bought 20 BTC in 2015 for around $300 per BTC, so he invested a total of $6k, versus the guy who might have bought BTC between 2013 and 2017 and ended up buying 200 BTC, but his costs per BTC were around $1k per BTC (3.33x higher BTC costs as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015), so he invested around $200k into BTC (about 33.3x more invested as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015). 

Which one would you rather be?  Are you concerned about how much cheaper your coins might end up being if you end up investing way less into bitcoin because you had been overly whimpy in your perspective and your BTC investment approach?  Part of my suggestion has been to DCA and continue to invest, even if continuing to invest might cause your average per BTC to go up and the amount that you invested to end up going up, yet at the same time, I understand that each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding these kinds of matters, and we are not necessarily going to know or to recognize if our approach sufficiently paid off (with fewer regrets) than perhaps maybe something like 10, 20 or 30 years down the road, and then by then, we will not be able to go back and to change our approach.. and we can ONLY change our approach right now (that is if we need to change it)..

If we continue to attempt to learn along the way, we likely will not be able to fix all of our mistakes, but we will likely catch some of them earlier and be able to improve our approach, even though there are never really any guarantees in regards to which investments to make and then how much to allocate, and part of the mistakes that some people historically had made has been to fail/refuse to get off zero.. so even if they might not have had liked bitcoin as an investment they likely would have been better to put 1% into bitcoin rather than zero.. even though the more aggressive ones of 10% or more or even 25% or more may well have had a better risk adjusted outcome in terms of how bitcoin has ended up performing as compared to any other investments that they had made.

That's true, JJG. That's why I believe one of the things that helped me HODL, even through all of the strongest temptations and fear, is keeping my coins in cold storage through an old computer, offline. I panic during crashes and get tempted to sell. BUT starting to get my USB HD, and thinking about the process of signing the transaction, sending the transaction, removing my USB HD from my computer to the other computer, I stop myself.

It was probably just my mood.

Furthermore, if in doubt, meditate with this meme in your mind.