Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 456. (Read 123204 times)

Well this is also one of the important points that we should pay attention too, it's not funny when we prepare for a better future, but we feel a heavy burden at the moment. Everyone has different abilities as well which has been widely discussed, it is not a problem for those who have a high income to allocate $100 every month or even every week. But for those of us who have lower incomes, we should definitely be more adjusted to our abilities. Whatever the amount is it doesn't matter as long as we feel comfortable and not burdened, the most important thing is that we must be consistent.

I already account for the need or the preference to change strategies as you accumulate more bitcoin and as you become more familiar with bitcoin (and even your own particulars).  If you are brand new to bitcoin and you hardly have any clues, you may well be much better off just setting some kind of an automatic buy of $10 or $100 or whatever happens to be your amount and don't think about it for a few years and then perhaps come back and study the space more at a later time or maybe after you have spent some time investing, the growth of your investment (merely from having had been buying for a decent amount of time) might thereafter inspire more studying into the topic. and even to be directed in such studying based on the performance (or lack of performance) of your BTC portfolio.


You still have to spend time learning about what is "more efficient" accumulation, and you are not going to know as a newbie and you are going to have to spend time studying.. and sometimes people don't have time, so it is better for them to just employ a more strict DCA approach.


Yes.. someone who already has a lump sum of value is going to have more options.

many times people do not have lump sums of value that they are either going to put into bitcoin or want to move in order to put into bitcoin..

If you have a lump sum available for investing into BTC, then you have three categories which is lump sum buying, DCA and buying on dip.  So a default division might be to divide such lump sum into three rather than thinking about all or nothing in terms of any one of the categories...

I have never suggested to ignore those three categories, even though DCA does tend to be better for most people and most people do not have lump sums.  I also don't necessarily consider that new cashflow coming in has to be DCA'd. so for example if a person has $100 per week available, he could choose to divide it into two.. half for DCA and the other for buying on dips.   

And again complete personal discretion and it is good to know the three categories and to figure out how much to emphasize on each one, with perhaps the default being DCA until getting up to a certain level of BTC.. and so as your BTC portfolio gets bigger, your options increase too, which tends to remove DCA from the default position.. especially if you start to become more informed about various aspects of your finances, your psychology and BTC.


I fixed your link.

Of course, that website can show you how many dollars you would have spent for $100 per week over a 9 year period and also show how many BTC you would have gotten, and of course, the upcoming 9 years are likely going to result in way fewer BTC.. Yes.. the last 9 years ended up getting you nearly 39 BTC for that $100 per week... and the next 9 years might well not even get you 0.5 BTC for that kind of level of weekly investment into BTC.  WE cannot tell for sure, but we an tell how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of our own life balances, and also realize and appreciate that there are no guarantees in regards to whether we made the right choices in terms of our chosen balances (what we invest into, how we invest and how much).


You don't seem to understand bitcoin very well, jasonjm. 

To get a bit of a better perspective, you might need to zoom out a bit and you might even need to study what bitcoin is exactly.. and how it adds to the various kinds of incentives that are likely going to change the way that people invest... even though it could well take bitcoin more than 150 years to get to its value in respect to gold for example. which would be around 1,000x gold or more.

So how do those dynamics of sound money work?  Value gravitates into it in the long run even if a certain amount of fuckery, misinformation, manipulation still may well be contributing in the short term, but the longer that bitcoin is around, the more people are actually learning about it rather than spouting out ill-informed talking points which seems to be what you are doing jasonjm.

Well, in the past, we have seen that when there is economic uncertainty, the price of Bitcoin also plunged. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, BTC dipped below $4k, so did the rest of the stock markets. Arguing that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge is still not a valid argument. Bitcoin is an asset but has and will fluctuate when there is economic pressure.
Everyone is investing in Bitcoin to earn profit. But, when we look at the other side of the picture, it is evident that Bitcoin is not as decentralized as we say. Major institutional investors are increasing their portfolios, and at some point in future, they will manipulate the price at will.

Therefore, having a long-term plan structure must be able to ensure that what we are betting on in the future can support success. Regardless of what the current economic cycle looks like, value storage will continue to be paid attention to by institutions. I know the impact on Bitcoin but at least large ownership controls we also need to worry about. Thus, the stability of Bitcoin holders and institutions aims to maintain Bitcoin as long as possible amidst threats.

Besides you see it as positive, do you know how vulnerable political and economic issues are when you take advantage of the Bitcoin industry to facilitate your interests? for example, presidential candidates or regional representatives who proclaim that if elected they will support the adoption of Bitcoin, but do not consider their country's policies with the fact that everything needs equal regulation. So that people who have high hopes take advantage of their voting rights feel disappointed in the end. Can we avoid it? no, we can only minimize what we maintain is truly within our own control rather than relying on policies that will not be realized at all.

Now that the world is seeing increasing levels of uncertainty, Bitcoin would be a possible contributor. As an asset Bitcoin has proven time and again that it rises more sharply when political and economic issues develop, which I think will bring more institutional investors into the domain to balance their portfolios. It's taking risks and leaps but that's the real investment in technique and the mechanics are individual for sure.

At this stage of this current Bitcoin woes one should not have high hopes for Bitcoin price movements. Because it is impossible to tell exactly when Bitcoin price will move, we should save money and invest at the right time. Money must be backed up and Bitcoin must be cautious as investment should be prepared and prepared in advance. Bitcoin halving in 2024 is much more likely to hit a high in the coming months than this halving is expected to halve next year. And if you invest based on your thinking, you can definitely face losses because Bitcoin price will not touch the peak this year . 2023 So based on your thinking you can get hurt if it doesn't reach a certain price (based on your thinking). Bitcoin price will definitely break through the high price touch next year after the halving but no one can say exactly how high the price will be. You can't push the investment mindset overboard, always have a backup mindset.

Everything still requires good and accurate calculations. We are currently at a relatively stable price, perhaps for a while Bitcoin in the current market provides more opportunities, especially for retailers or those who simply want to invest long term.

Actually, there is no asset that is 100% immune from inflation. Because even though market sentiment is moving aggressively, inflation conditions make people worry that they will not be able to survive the inflation cycle. Except for those who have a fixed income so they can control the Bitcoin they hold more freely.

Fud is good for balance if we can think from different directions. Someone who knows the risks of holding assets on a centralized exchange without trading them knows where to secure those assets. Because the main key in this case is securing it in a cold wallet. Exchanges are only for options when needed, not as a safe storage option, no matter how reputable a crypto exchange is, it does not guarantee anything that your assets will be completely safe. It's a different story for those who are active as day traders, the risk is much greater than for investors who secure assets in cold wallets.

Actually I see no reason why those negative news will affect Bitcoin growth, already there are countries that doesn't allow crypto based on the reason best known to them which in most cases make sure they influence everyone with negative news about Bitcoin, the truth is that when it comes to Bitcoin you can only be influence with negative news about Bitcoin if you are still a beginner were as you no nothing about Bitcoin and as such becoming venerable to be deceived and with the fear of uncertainty, but we that believes on Bitcoin can never be influence by any negative news about Bitcoin because we already no the potential of Bitcoin and were is headed.

waiting for the DIP is good but waiting too long will only make us miss the train!!
so buy whenever your intention is strong lol

Bitcoin prices are strongly influenced by market sentiment, that is undeniable, in my view, investors are already quite aware of Bitcoin as an asset that is immune to inflation, investors will definitely move quickly when bad news arrives, they will definitely exchange their funds to Bitcoin as a protection for the value of the money they previously owned.

but well, we know, when the bitcoin market is moving positively we will be presented with FUD news such as crypto exchanges being hacked, bitcoin bad for the environment, bitcoin being banned again by the government and so on ^{(you can investigate it yourself)}

in the end, Politicians will always play with bitcoin for their own interests, don't think too much about the FUD against bitcoin that will continue to emerge, they have already designed that.

Yeah I made sure that it won't have stress problems so between $30 and $50 is still relevant for me, this is of course looking at the current situation it is not impossible after running 1-2 years the level of aggressiveness will increase as you said $100 per week this is still possible for me to do if it is running with the ability and cash flow becomes high at that time.

It's not that I don't think about how to be aggressive towards bitcoin which must be increased the flow is still below to go beyond $100 to bitcoin need additional other income to pursue this target of course if $100 a week will generate 2-3x greater than usual - this is just the beginning a few months need to learn a lot including how other travel challenges including when prices are high the desire to sell is always there but however it must be endured because long-term plans are far more meaningful than selling because they see others.

After all I have planned this for the next 9 years: https://dcabtc.com?sd=2014-09-27&sda=9_years&f=weekly&d=9_years&ac=10000&c=false

They do come naturally to Bitcoin and that's why you don't have to get yourself be affected much from those factors.

Interest there are little and what they can promise you is the safety of your money. But then, with many news coming from the banks in some countries, they don't even allow their depositors to withdraw their money.

That's why, you shouldn't really let your money sleep on them. Maybe just the amount for emergencies.

I agree with the last point you made because acting according to our level of ability is a pretty good thing, because the investments we make do not become a burden in our lives. I've seen several posts that the investment they made in Bitcoin became a burden on their minds. This was caused by their aggressive decision to buy instantly. So they appear unprepared when prices fall because they do not have asset reserves to accumulate at low prices.

So, for that reason, I don't like to act more aggressively, but I regularly buy even in small amounts. In other words, I invest for the long term so I can continue to buy at every stage. But I also don't oppose those who act aggressively because they have found great planning in their investments so they have thought about the decision beforehand.

The level of recession in parts of the world continues to increase every year and continues, which has a big impact on the people's economy. But you have to know that we are in the modern era and those out there understand the level of world progress in the current modern era. So the level of recession will not have a bad impact for the online industry sector. Now for Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin has gone through many bad periods from various disasters that occurred such as Covid and in fact Bitcoin has absolutely no effect or causes the price of BTC to fall, because this is based on buying interest which occurs continuously even though the country/region is in lockdown. However, several surveys say that public interest continues to grow quite high in Bitcoin. That's the solid foundation of Bitcoin, so don't expect Bitcoin to have a big crash because of the recession that occurred, maybe a small correction and quickly restore the situation.

Bitcoin is an investment alternative that is being favored by entrepreneurs, Business people and large companies in the world. For example, MicroStrategy has accumulated more BTC recently. Of course, that is the answer if they are not afraid of a recession occurring in other parts of the region, they even say Bitcoin is a better investment for now.

Beginners or those who are continuously learning Bitcoin they have big ambitions to have some BTC in their portfolio. So are they wrong, of course they already know that Bitcoin is a more promising investment for this modern era. DCA has always been their solution and I assume that if they continue to be haunted by the bad factors of economic decline in a region then they will continue to be afraid of making investments in any form. That thought must be avoided and I also agree with Wind_FURI opinion, if you have a strong funding level then wait for Dips, and act aggressively in accumulating BTC.

You have a good point, @MCUKing, while trying to accumulate more coins, like up to 1 BTC or more, if considering the prices, the person will not end well, because I feel that as long as the person is considering the price of BTC, the price is high. The person will end up not buying because the price of BTC is high and the person will wait for it to dip before he continues, and sometimes btc continues to increase, so at that season the person has missed the opportunity. Waiting for the btc to dip before buying is not a good strategy that can be used to accumulate btc. As long as an investor is using the DCA methods to accumulate, he will not be thinking about whether Bitcoin is high or not.

JJG while I was reading this thread most of the time, you do support the aggressive buying & DCA and even now here Hybrid DCA what you call is not wrong at all, is what I think more suitable, No doubt with the DCA the accumulation will be more risk-free, but it will be risk-free not much effective or efficient. To make the DCA more efficient sometimes we need to lose the strictness and that is why I used to say sometimes besides DCA you need to prefer the change in strategy.

Price really doesn't matter if you are getting involved in the accumulation to achieve a particular amount of Bitcoiner's hard-lined Bit coiner but it does when it comes to more efficient accumulation.

Let me explain it with 2 sorts of Scenarios.

case 1: A person wants to accumulate 1 Bitcoin according to the cyclical movement and he knows that if the market stays in a range from this point to this point I will invest X amount per Day/week and I will reach my goal at this time.

case 2: Here's a person who has enough capital as well and wants to accumulate 1 Bitcoin but He's not sure about the bottom He stared his DCA and now he got a DIP and here changed the strategy from DCA to instant Buying of 10% of capital and again started DCA and again he bought the DIP.

Now the more efficient Buying is done by Person 2 because he already accumulated 1 BTC before person 2 and His total capital spent in USD is also lower than the person continuously following the strict DCA.

I like what you said in this regard and it's true because at the end of the day we invest not to make things difficult for ourselves. If you really can't afford to invest a bigger amount then at least you do it with something smaller because in the end no matter how small we invest as long as it is done regularly and really consistent then I think it will be much better than when we try for something big and force ourselves which causes us to stop halfway so it's better to take the first option with the amount according to the portion that we can afford.


Price can be important in this case but when we decide to invest seriously and of course with a good scheme then it is indeed okay not to look at the price and buy when your plan is good because in the end when we always focus on the price we will never enter because it is always worried that there is a lower price in the end. rather than like that it is better to try to start and when the price has decreased again then there is no harm anymore to allocate funds and try to continue to be consistent with the supply we allocated regardless of whether it is trending up or down because what we are looking at is not short-term but long-term.

The uncertainty of the Bitcoin market seems to get me and most persons worried, I would say that statistically the percentage of person who dont trust the legacy market and those who do is at 80 - 20. No one is certain but we might experience a global crash in the legacy market in the coming years its crazy that the level of it might be high and I dont see it to go anytime soon.

I have more faith when I ventured into bitcoin than I do now but I am still in less doubt because with all these ups and down presently Bitcoin has still maintained its reputation, with this alone I am convinced and am not scared of what market crash, economic inflation, Political influence will affect Bitcoin. One thing I would regret if I do is to save money the traditional way because ill rather invest my money than let the bank do it for me.

Yeah that's cool because one of the barriers or factors that can possibly affect our psychological reasoning after accumulation is regularly watching the price movement of Bitcoin because it cannot only affect you psychologically but also emotionally were as you could seriously be panicking seeing the price going opposite direction but perhaps if your intention of accumulation is for long time holding I see no reason why someone could be regularly watching the price movement.

Although if your strategy is for long time holding were as you made mention selling off your Bitcoin if the price moves drastically, for me I will call it a panic sell because it boils down to our discussion about the factors that affect our psychology in times of holding so deciding to sell off your accumulated Bitcoin because of a drastic price increase shows that you were influenced by price movement, perhaps you could regret after selling your Bitcoin were as the price keeps skyrocketing and never gives you the opportunity to accumulate again due to the market spiking, so we shouldn't allow emotions to overwhelm us as such losing opportunity we were supposed to have wile holding.

You do not necessarily understand bitcoin if you are attempting to put too much correlation to "legacy markets."  Sure there are liquidity correlations and there are people who play bitcoin as if it were the same as any other market.. without necessarily understanding and/or appreciating the potential for exponentials. .and even the sly round about ways that step ups in value have historically taken place in bitcoin and are likely to continue into the future (even though surely not guaranteed).


Yes.. it might and it might not.  There also could be a bitcoin step up that comes prior to the crash, and we might end up crashing back down to the current price (or even a higher price) rather than a lower price from here.

Surely, it does not hurt to hold some dry powder on the side for various dips, but I would not be getting overly excited about the possibility of sub-$20k bitcoin when bitcoin prices might not ever drop below $25k ever again.. including they might not ever drop below $26k again.

I know that you like to get so excited about buying on dip scenarios, but I have my doubts about that approach being a very good one when it comes to bitcoin (except ONLY as a kind of supplement approach rather than a main approach), even though it does sometimes end up working out positively for you.


It's not the first time that you have raised that same point.. .. I hope it is working out for you and you are not holding too much fiat on the side rather than buying the dips that have already been happening.

Pretty decent BTC prices to be already getting BTC below the 200-week moving average, and you are spending so much time thinking about ways to stack 0.00062817 more BTC during a fantasy dip that might not end up playing out.


Of course, each of us needs to choose the level of aggressiveness that we want to employ without causing too much stress upon ourselves, and maybe I should provide the example $10 and $100 per week again... .

Let's say that it is pretty clear that based on your cashflow you are able to invest between $50 and $200 into bitcoin every week, and so you consider that a reasonably aggressive strategy would be $100 per week.. It makes you a little uncomfortable, but you are still feeling like you are being sufficiently aggressive. 

On the other hand, if you instead choose to invest between $30 and $50 every week because you want to make sure that you don't have any stress and that you are able to have as much fun as you can with your weekly money, then maybe in that case you are not being aggressively enough, and after 4-6 years investing into bitcoin, you are still going to be advantaged by your $30-$50 per week investment into bitcoin, but if you had been employing the more aggressive strategy of $100 per week you would end up with 2-3x  more bitcoin.  So, of course the level of your aggressiveness and the level of your discomfort with your aggressiveness is a matter of degree and a matter of your choice based on your particular circumstances.

It is not forced because you choose it, and if you are actually causing yourself to be more aggressive than your comfort level, then that can also end up putting yourself into a situation that may end up feeling forced, even though you were the one who choose the aggressiveness level that you would employ.


In the end, I think that we are largely saying the same thing.


Fuck shitcoins.  We are not talking about shitcoins here.  If you were not talking about shitcoins, then your statement surely does not make that clear.  "wise to diversify" sounds like code for "buying shitcoins could be helpful" when that truly is neither true and also shitcoin pumping (or pumping the idea that shitcoins are good) is not a part of this topic.


You are wrong.  A strict DCA approach does not get distracted by price.. .however, if you are suggesting a less strict DCA approach or some kind of hybrid, then there is nothing wrong with that... but don't be implying that you are still following DCA when you are not.. In those kinds of cases you are purposefully deviating from DCA and suggesting that would be better, when it may or may not end up being better than just following a straight DCA approach.  We cannot presume that everyone has time to be fucking around trying to figure out the price, and that is part of the reason that a strict DCA is suggested as a starting point... and sure of course, anyone is free to deviate from DCA by employing various price movement strategies, but that is no longer strict DCA and not even necessarily a good idea (even though you seem to be suggesting that moving from strict DCA is "obviously" better.. which truly is not true)..

Some times people attempt to get to be too smart for their own good, and I have no problem with making suggestions but it is not necessarily going to be a good thing for everyone to be fucking around with various strategies that may or may not end up working, even if you have a lot of confidence in such deviation. 


No we cannot see what is happening now, except maybe BTC prices could go up and maybe they could go down. I can see that, which is almost always true.  Do you think that you have insight regarding which way the BTC price is going to go from here?


We are also not doing trading in this thread.  Even though there is buying on dip ideas, this thread surely is not about trading.


A good investor is a trader?  I doubt it.


I doubt it.  How many traders beat a strict DCA approach?  Probably less than 10%.  I doubt that it is as obvious and/or "wise" as you are making it out to be.


Just because you have it all figured out does not mean that it is a good practice for normies to be fucking around trying to trade and/or even tough enough to figure out if there is going to be a dip or not and how low it will go and/or how long such dip will last.


Another thing.. you have ONLY been registered on the forum since June 2022.. so it could be possible that you might have been able to beat a strict DCA approach and various other ways of accumulating BTC that might also involve Lump sump investing and buying on dips.. but how about the traders who have been around for 10 years?  DCA and strict methods of ongoing BTC accumulation have done pretty well in the past 10 years or so.. How many traders are able to beat a somewhat strict and persistent DCA approach over the past 10 years?

Let's look at $100 invested over the past 10 years would have resulted in right around $52.6k invested and nearly 54 BTC (an average of a little less than $1k per BTC).  Do you know actual widely applicable ways that a trading strategy would  have had beat those kinds of returns?  Yeah, sure you might have anecdotal stories, but is there a clear practice that would have had beaten a strict DCA approach?

Well as we have discussed above, it will really come back to their own abilities in terms of the financial capabilities of each individual who will be the perpetrator. Of course, to be honest I also never prohibit and there is no prohibition at all for them to behave aggressively or not when they want to start investing, but here maybe we are only limited to suggesting that if indeed you have a limit in terms of financial capabilities or maybe your finances are not as good as the rich in general then you can start investing in an amount that will not interfere with your life or other needs to continue your life. It is actually quite simple to understand what you can afford, only you will know how your finances are there. Allocating a small amount honestly won't be a problem if you can't afford it, because it is clear that you must be able to balance all the needs in your life and also the need to be allocated to bitcoin so that you remain safe, comfortable and also your planning will run well.

Well it refers more to greed, in terms of money I understand greed will definitely exist in humans, but usually that kind of mindset will eventually lead you to results that are even worse than what you imagined. As I said above, hoarding a small amount is not a problem at all compared to you behaving aggressively with a very high risk there, instead of getting a big profit there you get a big loss, it is very likely to happen because we are in a place that is very fluctuating. So the point is I hope they will be able to be more prudent in allocating their money, it will be better and all you need is to be consistent with using DCA, believe me.