Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 457. (Read 136304 times)

I totally agree with you that it is good to try the three methods than sticking to just one because it will give you the best experience on which you will choose at differs time interval based on the market, and you will also have an advantage to see the benefits or the opposite in using these three methods in combination to accumulate bitcoin. I believe that such person using the three methods of bitcoin accumulation will do better than that investor using only one accumulating strategy in his bitcoin size.

It is good to try all methods since our main focus is on bitcoin accumulation so that you can navigate with the market based on the size of your income and at various level. I have only used two strategy which is my regular monthly DCA and lump sum, but I will try to start keeping any extra cash on me now for the dip, even though I know that the dip might not come soon, but it doesn't stop me from my regular monthly DCA, I am only trying to have more experience on the road to my bitcoin target. I guess that it is better to try than not trying. I am a low income earner and I don't have a huge amount that I can divide into three for buying at the dip, lump sum and DCA, and that is why I have use the gradual saving of extra cash for the dip and if I am privilege to come across a good amount of money that I can use for lump sum, I will but that doesn't mean that I am not on my regular DCA.

Investing in Bitcoin requires a lot of learning about investing. The more we study about investing the easier it seems to me. Studying specific topics is very important It is not just Bitcoin investing that you are asked to study but for every situation that you are in your business or situation that you are in, you have to study a lot. 

I started studying with many people from primary school, after completing primary education, many people announced the end of their education. Those who completed their education in primary were not very focused on education, the next step is school life and there also many dropped out due to inattention to education. However, those who were focused on their studies are still studying and still have a lot of interest in their studies. The few friends we started studying together in primary life, if they were interested in studying or if they were good at studying, but they did not drop out.
It is the same in the case of investment, we can learn as much information as we try to know about investment but if ever investment seems too difficult for us and if we do not show interest to know more about investment then we cannot move forward with investment.

Not everyone likes investing and not everyone who likes investing succeeds in investing. Those who study a lot about investing and who are interested in learning about investing succeed in investing. Investing does not mean that I buy any coin and wait for profit, rather investment means buying a suitable coin with sufficient understanding about investment, trusting that coin and accepting maximum risk and holding that investment in the hope of certain amount of profit. 

It is normal for those who invest in suitable coins for a certain period of time to hold the investment and succeed from their investment.

I am looking to lock in some profit. So I will be selling about 0.1 btc soon

It is good to have real world examples, and sometimes we might consider putting all the money in one category because sometimes it can be complicated to divide whatever we might have into three parts, yet your own situation should help to guide you in terms of what is best for you and your situation (financially and psychologically).   

Merely because we might end up dividing a large amount (an amount that we already decided to dedicate to BTC purchases) into three parts does not even mean that we will conclude to keep those parts equal or that we want to follow through with a strategy regarding all three parts, but the three parts can be areas to consider, and after we employ them into our system, we might end up being content with the results that happen and/or we might end up regretting what we ended up doing, but it is most likely that if we thought through the situation and considered all three options, then at least we will know that we had decided what to do within the various the three options that were available instead of merely rushing into one of the options without even considering the other two options.

You are right @JJG because it was a similar strategy I used a month ago, so actually I had some money on my other bank account and some more money I was expecting from my business including my monthly salary so when I sum up all the money together I was having a good reasonable amount of money. So at first I had to estimate the amount of money that could possibly sustained me and other needs up to two months, so however after all the calculation I was still left with some good amount of money so I wanted to wait for a dip before investing all on Bitcoin but however I became panic  that I could be waiting for the Bitcoin price to dip before buying while the price can continue rising as such I may no longer find that opportunity again, so had to Lump Sum the money.

So however since I'm not expecting too much on this month I had to maintain my normal DCA strategy.

You don't have to think about it too much, you should buy bitcoin, it has not reached its latest maximum, so the options for buying bitcoin are within the normal parameters, but people or most people think the other way around, when they see that the price of Bitcoin goes up , Because if they start to buy bitcoin, then in these cases it is easy for them to lose money , and with good luck they can make some money, but it is a very Poor way of thinking, the good thing is that they buy Bitcoin Now, at this time, that is the option that can be done, the smartest thing, it is what can be done to win now , but that depends on the type of person who wants to Win.

Should you buy Bitcoin while it is above $30,000?


Source: https://finbold.com/should-you-buy-bitcoin-while-it-is-above-30000/

Yeah actually what you said is correct in times of holding but however you were a little bit contradicting what you are explaining by introducing the need to understand or learn how to analyze the Bitcoin price when your encouragement and planning is for accumulating Bitcoin with the intention of holding so perhaps I see no relationship between the accumulation of Bitcoin and the importance of knowing how to analyze the price of Bitcoin, because the only people who care or deem it important to understand it is only those who are interested on trading.

So if you're target on Bitcoin if for holding perhaps you don't need to bother yourself on knowing the market analysis because in times of Bitcoin holding all we just need is our capital, basic knowledge of Bitcoin and you are due to invest because acquiring for too much knowledge may not even be necessary on less you wish to.

On average, beginners prefer to use the DCA strategy for bitcoin accumulation because it will not drain their finances, maybe at the beginning they can use a small percentage after they can manage finances more stably, they can increase or use the two methods with DCA and Lumpsum depending on how they think about cash flow and organize it.

Like me after studying bitcoin quite a lot I want to continue to add more sat to the portfolio but I realize finances must really be adjusted, but the taste is still quite large with a percentage of 30% spent on bitcoin but I think it has become the right choice.

Beginners are important to understand your post.
Post #2 is important for beginners to understand from the beginning with the ability to invest in bitcoin there you have clearly explained.

Over time we can reach the stage to post #4 by being able to analyze the price of bitcoin.

I will read this post in more detail.

I am new to bitcoin but I was just saying that I will not take a whole ten years from this year that I started to have a significant amount of bitcoin, only to sell to buy a car, that buying a car shouldn't be why I got into bitcoin investment.

For you to be able to have a better knowledge on bitcoin investment, you must have the experience, and how do you have the experience by investing now, because you can simply invest and learn along the line, it is better to get started than to think that you need a major knowledge of bitcoin investment before you can invest. To invest in bitcoin it doesn't need much just only the basics of bitcoin which is how to buy and send to your noncustodial wallet. If it is someone that is use to save some little part of his income  always, the better for him. Bitcoin investment should be for a long term and this is why you should only use a percentage from your income that will not affect your other necessary expenses, you should also have  emergency funds that will be a back up for you when an emergency arise, so that you will be comfortable with your regular DCA to achieve your bitcoin goal. Success can be achieved, when you are discipline and patient in your accumulation period to make sure you don't get distracted along the line. Some people have been holding some good significant of bitcoin that they accumulated bit by bit for like 10yrs now.

DCA approach is very reliable for you to use as a newbie in your bitcoin goal. But if my any means, you can have extra funds from you place of work or your business, you can save it for the dip so that when the dip comes your are ready to take advantage of it. People that have good financial management with maybe a good source of income can easily use these methods with time. JJG has already stated this above because he is well experience on this field, since he started his bitcoin investment long ago and now he is on his maintenance level.

Likely the very beginners into bitcoin would be better off ONLY using DCA to accumulate bitcoin and while they are figuring out bitcoin and their own finances and/or psychology in regards to bitcoin, yet as they study bitcoin more and more, and maybe as they stack more and more sats, they can start to add the other two methods of lump summing and buying on the dip into the mix of the ways that they accumulate BTC, and it will take different people differing amounts of times to figure out his/her own finances and/or psychology as I had referred to my earlier linked post. (outline in this post) )

Someone who has enough money to invest in Bitcoin can adopt these three methods you mentioned to accumulate the quantity of Bitcoin he wants because he will have nothing to worry about, even though Bitcoin price is on the rise the money to use and buy Bitcoin with a lump sum is there, if Bitcoin dip the money to use and buy the Bitcoin dip is there, and if Bitcoin price is just being stable for some week the money to use and buy Bitcoin with the DCA strategy is also there, I think using these three methods at a time to accumulate Bitcoin is also safe if there is enough money. Thanks for sharing this idea.

Everyone has responsibility for themselves for what they will do, if they choose to invest in Bitcoin of course they must first study it well, don't just look at those who have been able to benefit from investing in Bitcoin, they immediately decide to follow them. without a good understanding of what they are doing, of course if they force themselves to invest then this will be a bad thing for them because those who have been successful with their investments certainly have a lot of knowledge and experience that they have gained from the investments they have made.

It seems that even if someone is fortunate in a variety of ways, it seems better to be focusing on what kinds of things that they are doing to learn and/or or to be able to be productive and helpful to others rather than just telling us how they are already getting free money and therefore they are  putting it into bitcoin... Sure if any of us were in such a situation, then we do have some luxuries of building a bitcoin stash for free. 

Some folks in bitcoin did get rich from bitcoin, so it likely is the case that some folks in bitcoin never did have to work for any of their wealth if they actually came from well-to-do families, but it seems doubtful that any of those kinds of stories are helpful unless they might be talking about various kinds of ways that a person might deal with cashflows.  Even well-to-do people do have to either engage in their organizing of their finances unless they have accountants that do those things for them, and then maybe the main kinds of learnings would be how to manage other people, which does not really seem to be a very relatable topic for many of us who have engaged in various kinds of work for our value and maybe even quite a bit of back and forth learning how to manage and balance our BTC holdings.


Even if the BTC price dips, many of us are not going to have enough money to be ready, willing and able to invest all of our life time investment into bitcoin at one time.  Therefore, frequently the investing into bitcoin remains an ongoing process rather than a one time lump sum investment, even if we might try to invest lump sum, there might be several entry points along the way of building a stash.

Surely, there are some folks who might either be experienced investors and/or that they have already built up a large investment portfolio and they may well be ready, willing and able to move their whole allocation into bitcoin in a lump sum, but those are likely the exceptions rather than the rule, and I doubt that we are wanting to appeal to have discussions with and/or about experienced and rich investors rather than discussing the various ways that normies get into bitcoin.. which is overwhelmingly going to be through relatively small injections of value periodically, whether that is weekly, monthly, quarterly or some other time increments that also depend on cashflow and expense situations of the BTC accumulators.


There is nothing wrong with considering making various adjustments to your BTC accumulation strategies, even though surely many of us have acknowledged that it is quite difficult to know which way the BTC price is going to go, so that is part of the justification for ongoingly buying BTC on a regular basis rather than letting too much fiat build up.  But if your fiat is building up, then you have to decide if you are going to hold some of that for buying on dips or if you are just going to buy right away with it or add it to your DCA amount and spread such purchases over some given period of time.

Personally, I do prefer to consider all three categories of accumulating if I either receive some additional cashflow or if I realize that I have more cash onhand than I thought that I had needed.  For example, if I am going through my monthly expenses, I might have a certain quantity of money in various accounts that are used to pay various expenses, but then after calculating the various expenses for that month or even trajectoring out for further months,  I might come to realize that there may end up being some extra money in the account, so then having that extra money would justify considering: 1) lump sum right away (or various lump sums), 2) allocate for buying on dips that can be set at various intervals depending on buy orders that might already exist (money that is already allocated for buying on dips) and/or 3) DCA over a certain period of time with various amounts.  For example, if I were to find that I have $1,200 extra then I could allocate $400 to each of the three categories or I could allocate $600 to buying on dips,  $200 to buying right away and $600 to DCA.  There are a lot of variations and discretion based on what has already been allocated to the categories and a variety of other considerations (including the ones I outline in this post) that might not ONLY be about BTC price expectations even though price expectations is one of the considerations.

Usually with the DCA strategy there is no need to look at the price is up or down you need to consistently do every week/month then that is the DCA strategy, while for the lumpsum method then you need to wait for the price to drop because this is DIP and have to provide more money to buy at once, sometimes this way is a little more complicated even though it is not the case but the DCA method is more appropriate but you need to remember not to look at any price.

Of course you still have a lot of time from now on to start DCA, sometimes with the halving happening in April for example it will not directly become ATH there must be another moment with a certain time will reach it, if you want to skip the cycle now it is much better because your investment will be longer with a range of 4 years more, but determine with the plan you make.

As much as possible now you should be able to implement strategies with DCA consistently to continue to grow your portfolio.

Yes, that's right, we just have to buy and hold, although some people prefer to make short-term trades, but that will be different from holding and not doing anything. The risk is more minimal, we know the coin we are buying is the best, namely Bitcoin, so no You need to worry because in the long term the price will continue to rise.

Even though the price of Bitcoin is on the rise now, I will still stick with my DCA strategy to accumulate the quantity of Bitcoin I planned to accumulate and hodl for a long term. I will not rush with a lump sum buy in Bitcoin just because I'm afraid Bitcoin price will not dump for me to buy at a lower price through the DCA strategy. There is still enough time for me to achieve the quantity of Bitcoin I want to accumulate through DCA even though the price of Bitcoin is at $36k because Bitcoin can only set a new ATH when Bitcoin halving has taken place and Bitcoin halving is estimated to happen in April 2024.

On the contrary, Bitcoin can actually pay quickly depending on when you join the market and what will be the prevailing market condition after you join. There are people that bought Bitcoin when it dip below $18k. They were I profits within a short time because Bitcoin did not stay long there. Same thing for those that bought below $30k before the surge that took the price above $30k where it has remained till date.

You might be lucky to buy Bitcoin today and the next day, it gain over $5k. This is a confirmation that Bitcoin can pay quickly.

However, our target is not the quick profits but how to buy and hold for long to make bigger gains.

Everything has risks, but any success requires trade-offs. So I think we should not focus too much on the risk but instead we should be ready to face it if it really happens. Once we decide to invest, we should be optimistic about our choice because thinking too much about risks will make us afraid and miss opportunities. Just like every time the price of bitcoin drops, many people fear it will drop even further and do not dare to buy when the price drops. And finally, they miss the opportunity to buy because the price does not continue to fall but increases again.

Think carefully and make a decision before investing. Once you have decided to invest, you should believe in your choice and stick to the plan you have set, don't think too much about risks.

He was fortunate to be born into a wealthy family, but relying on his parents is not something to brag about here. I like people who make their own money and are responsible for their lives rather than relying on their parents. Let's make our parents proud of us, don't let them worry more when we grow up.

It is true that Bitcoin never pays a person quickly and does not provide financial solvency. Rather, if you want to get financial freedom, you have to invest in Bitcoin and keep it for a long time, but you will get profit. I think it is foolish to invest as you wish, if you understand the position of the market during it is definitely possible to accumulate a good wealth for the future. Also, I think it's better if you hold BTC for future and long term investment. That said, we exactly invest with the amount of money we can afford to lose, but basically we invest because we can hope for Bitcoin. And currently we are so confident in bitcoin that we will never lose money by keeping it here, but it will be our main purpose to make profit by holding only BTC.

Sometimes, we might agree with a lot of the same points, but we express ourselves differently, and other times there are actual material differences in what we are saying.  I don't claim to know all of the answers, and sometimes I might even get confused and/or contradict myself in terms of what I thought that I wanted to say or how I am saying it... and some members (to the extent that any of them are reading our posts) might be able to relate more to the ways that you are saying things, and others might be able to relate more to the ways that I am saying things.   

I do believe that it can become confusing to get into describing (or predicting) probabilities for future performance as compared with what might actually end up happening.

For example, if I say that I believe that there is a greater than 75% chance that BTC prices will break the current ATH before the end of 2025, then if I am trying to account for all of the possible outcomes, then I have to try figure out how to frame the remaining less than 25%.  Since we are talking in terms of breaking the high, then we can maybe figure out how we might want to figure some of the current ranges. 

So maybe I could say that I believe that there is a 10% chance that BTC will not break $40k before the end of 2025, and then I believe that there is a less than 15% chance that BTC will top out somewhere between $40k and $69k before the end of 2025. 

That kind of framing would cover all of the possibilities, but it still does not mean that I am right in my numbers since I am kind of guessing a bit, too... so if some of the facts change or maybe some of my ideas change, then I might have to adjust my predictive numbers, but since there surely is quite a bit of time between now and the end of 2025, I could likely stick with my predictive numbers and framework for quite a long time (maybe 6 months or longer) before I might feel any need to adjust the numbers that I have just given..

Now if we get to the middle of 2025 and the price had not yet gone above $50k, I might start to get worried, especially if BTC prices were then around current prices, so it seems that other parts of my whole view of bitcoin is playing out differently than I had expected... but I still might feel that I need to stick to my guns with my earlier prediction, even though the price had already gone past $40k, so that 10% would need to be removed from any revised prediction since at some point between now and mid 2025, the BTC price had ended up going above $40k.

Another thing is that once the whole of 2025 passes, and if the BTC price did not end up going any higher than $50k, then my 15% scenario would have had ended up playing out, and so then that 15% scenario ended up becoming 100% since that is what ended up playing out.  So if I were to try to make another prediction regarding what BTC might do in 2026 and 2027, then I would have to take into account what actually ended up happening, rather than what had been my earlier greater than 75% scenario did not end up playing out but ended up being 0% in terms of what had actually ended up happening.

Maybe it is not a great example, yet it does end up being a bit gloomy and doomy if facts were to end up playing out in the minority case of my current prediction, but it still should be something that I am prepared for both financially and psychologically, even if I consider both the combination of no higher than $40k and topping in the $40k to $69k to be less than 25%.

We can do this for down scenarios too., but I don't really like to talk about the minority cases, but instead focus on the current more likely direction, even though the down scenarios should be contained within how much value that we place into BTC and also the various ways that we are psychologically and financially prepared for those down scenarios, even though they are part of our view of events that is less likely to play out.  We could really get reckt financially and psychologically if we did not account for the negative scenarios... but even though we are prepared for them, we might not need to put very much of our finances into such negative scenarios.

Have "we" beaten this to death enough, yet?  I understand that guys are likely going to get overly enthusiastic, and surely I hate to be the one who is saying to be careful if you are putting 100% into up.. or even using language that seems to describe that you are overly prepared for UP without being prepared for both, whether we are talking short, medium or long term.. even going out 20-30 years... if BTC were to perform badly for the next 10 years, for example, it may not mean that it has to fix itself so that in the long term it performs positively.  We have to assess what is going on at various times along the way to attempt to figure out if there might be parts of our investment thesis that are not playing out as we had expected and if we might need to change our investments based on such or if we stick with the same original plan that we had.