Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 462. (Read 123198 times)

yeah i was still aspecting to see more declines in the market as We all know CPI reports , and FTX decision came from court was to start selling their assets so that's why i was aspected that market will go down but very now you have mentioned me btc goes up and set it price to 27k$ which i think really don't know what's going on we can't time the market right. Now what is have experiences all these kinda news are just to liquidate small investors in the markets and bigwhale plays their game. so now what i am thinking to buy more amount of btc at 27k$ as i don't aspect very much from market it is also good price to buy some more.


well i think kinda sage words and i would say many thanks for your opinion to me about the modification in the strategy of DCA'ing.   i think 27k is still good time for me to go ahead i was just doing DCA in the way to buy only dips whch i think also good aspect but somehow your points still relate like we always should not for dips to buy well thanks for you appreciation.


Many thanks to you as well as i learned from your words  that never hope alot from market like always wait for the dips to buy now i have made some modification to my knowledge to buy at current lower price rather than aspecting for the dipper one as we don't know what is going to happen or next move of market yeah all we can do is FA and TA to know the market behaviour and have some prediction of future and which can't be 100% accurate right?

 

DCA with emergency fund to me sound more convincing and easy to do more than setting aside a percentage from your total income on weekly basis,  since emergency funds can also be referred to as leftover money which will be more profitable when saved in an assets that are easily converted to cash like BTC,  and from what both of you guys already mentioned,  it quite clear that emergence will be the best since in both worst cast scenario and best case scenario if you have a well planned DCA approach you will still end in a good position,  since at that point you are not  depending on your income to make your investment but rather you are buying Bitcoin from your emergence savings.


But the only side to watch out in all of this is,  you must be smart enough not to exust all your emergency saving on buying the dip and in most cases you must at least leave a small portion of the savings behind so that when you have a real life emergency,  you will have the funds to sort them out.


That way,  the pressure won't be on you bitcoin holding at once and that can allow you to bear market conditions for some time based on long term Bitcoin approach.

Expecting a continuous price decline like that is also not very good after you have succeeded in getting Bitcoin at low prices twice in your previous purchases. Today Bitcoin has re-positioned itself at a price of $27K and you should be able to smile a little because you can immediately see profits in your portfolio without having to wait any longer, but my advice is to continue holding it until you see the price double the current price so that you can feel true happiness through Bitcoin.

The DCA strategy that you are doing has really worked very well and I think you also really understand it so that you can continue to use it in the future when you have money saved that you don't use for other things. And the price increase seen now is also not a bad phenomenon for you, even though you still want to buy Bitcoin under $25K, but for now look at the profits you have made so that your confidence in Bitcoin can continue to grow.

JJG, I know that you are an old G bitcoin holder with so much experience and different strategy on how to accumulate bitcoin. I also agree to what you said on how someone that isn't having a steady cash inflow can use his average cash inflow for the year to plan on how much he will use on DCAing or to always have an amount that will be left based on always planning and keeping funds for worst scenario than average case scenario. I wouldn't like to such happen in my own bitcoin journey accumulation, the reason is that I have just started my bitcoin journey and I haven't accumulate a significant amount which I can be proud of. Not having regular cash inflow will be a big challenge to me because it will slow the amount of bitcoin I will accumulate, and I am not even sure of accumulate, unlike the regular cash inflow pattern. This is because you might prepare and plan very well on this, but along the line, it might come to play that your worst scenario expectation came out to be  more than what you have planned for, because there are unforeseen challenges that will come to play during this period, which you didn't plan for that must be included because of it is an emergency.

I will use myself as a case study, I plan on how much I spend weekly and let me say if I budgeted $200, I will end up spending up $250 and sometimes $300, but because I have a steady cash inflow I don't feel it. I could remember when I have not gotten job that was frequently paying me, I find it difficult to manage the one that I have worked to use till when another funds comes in, because of this unforeseen circumstances that do occur. I am happy JJG, that you said if you did not make a proper calculation so that your worst case scenario funds should be higher, one might end up falling back to sell his bitcoin due to lack of proper preparation. I am not good at managing a certain amount of funds for some time before another funds comes in because, nobody knows what will happen next, this is why I feel that regular income will help in DCAing better for me. Although, everyone has their own strategy of DCA base on the way they get their income.

I think that whether 10 years investing into bitcoin is enough depends upon from where you are starting.  When I got into bitcoin, in 2013, I already had 20 years of investing into traditional markets, so then my bitcoin holdings became a supplement (or even a hedge) to my other investments that included equities, property, bonds, cash (or cash equivalents) and some exposure to commodities, even though bitcoin largely became my main commodity exposure since my investments were relatively weak in the commodity arena.

I doubt that it is smart for anyone to be thinking that they are getting in and out of bitcoin, since bitcoin seems to be a life time investment, even though there may be ways to manage (and maintain) your bitcoin holdings once you reach a level of BTC holdings that satisfy you, whether that is 2-5x your annual income (expenses) or maybe it is a higher amount while keeping in mind that if you get to 20x to 30x of your annual income in your investment portfolio, then you are likely getting into entry-level fuck you status, but the mere fact that you might be getting into entry-level fuck you status should not mean that you sell all of your various holdings rather than manage them and maybe even figure out ways to start spending them, if you are at that stage of your life when your investment portfolio starts to get into entry-level fuck you status... sure there are some people that will still want to continue to grow their investments, and age (and maybe family status) would surely factor into those kinds of considerations.


Putting the DCA method into practice and applying it to your own circumstances seems to be the real test of both understanding it theoretically and personally experiencing it in such a way that you tweak it and tailor it to your own personal circumstances.


That's up to you regarding how aggressive that you feel that you need to be for your own circumstances.  I know that between 2014 or so and 2020, I largely just recommended that guys get off zero and invest $10 per week into bitcoin; however, it seems that in order to even get comparable results, people in the west should be trying to get to $100 per week. and sure some folks could even do more, but $100 per week seems to be sufficiently aggressive without necessarily overdoing it for normies in the west.. but if you are not in the west and you are already starting with $12-$25 per week, you have to figure out your own level of aggressiveness and whether you believe that investing into bitcoin is a good use of your cash for you... especially since there are no guarantees that BTC will perform well.. so hopefully you are not depriving yourself too much.. . but again, those are your balancing choices.


One of the good things about spreadsheets is that you do not necessarily need to keep the funds in separate wallets (or separate accounts within a wallet) in order to keep track of different purchases that you had made - even though as you suggested, there might be a little more ease to keep track if the funds are separate.

I have used spreadsheets in a variety of ways to keep track of purchases, but also to project out various kinds of BTC price performance scenarios and to see how my behaviors might impact my BTC holdings if certain BTC price scenarios were to play out (so long as I followed the plan).  

At one point, in mid-to late 2015, I had divided my BTC into at least three overlapping categories in order to guid myself in terms of how to treat my BTC holdings, so there can be some fun (and practicality) in that.  The categories were:

1)  all of the BTC that I bought from late 2014 until then (mid-2015) (average cost of $250 ish)

2)  all of the BTC that I bought from June 2014 until then (mid-2015) (average cost of $330 ish)

3) all of the BTC that I bought from the beginning late 2013 until then (mid-2015) (average cost of $520 ish)

These were moving targets, but they guided me in terms of my own authorizing myself for what I could do.  The categories were overlapping due to my own reasons, yet there could be reason like you suggested to categorize the BTC in other ways including trying to figure out if average cost per BTC ended up being affected in any meaningful and substantial ways based on my own employment of various different kinds of BTC accumulation strategies.  I am not sure how important that question is, except maybe to guide you if you believe it might contribute to your changing your BTC accumulation strategies (or what you recommend others to do) based on your own results.


I don't really like the idea of buying daily if you are not buying very much, unless you are able to buy without much if any fees.  Sometimes, you could have a cash account that builds up and then you send it to the exchange once a month or so, but also you have cash on the exchange that you would use so that you are not having to continue to submit small amounts.. and of course, some of the concerns about fees and/or sending a lot of small transactions (or attempting to minimize that) might have to do with personal circumstances, and I do recall that between 2013 and 2015 I was able to find ways in which I hardly paid any fees for a lot of my BTC purchases, but then sometimes the no fee options disappeared and sometimes it may be better to spend the fees, so for example if you are able to have fees that are truly just based on percentages, then it may well not matter very much if you buy $5 at a time or $100 at at time, because the purchases are percentage based... so then in those circumstances, you may well be o.k to engage in BTC purchases as soon as your cash comes in, even if you have small amounts coming in at each time (daily or even hourly making determinations how much to hold and when to wait to make purchases, whether to market buy or to set a limited buy order that might have lower fees than market buying usually has higher fees than the limited order fees.)

Ps.  I realized one point that I left out is in regards to having a whole lot of small UTXOs, and that can become problematic, so sometimes if you are buying small amounts and then moving them off of the exchange too early, then you will end up with a whole hell of a lot of small UTXOs, and sure maybe it is not necessary to combine your UTXOs, and I can remember in 2014-2016, many times people would be talking in terms of having 1-10 BTC in each UTXO, and now days, that seems like way too much money to have in each UTXO, so the ongoing questions regarding how much value to keep in each UTXO will likely vary with the passage of time, and sometimes a $100 to $500 UTXO might end up going up in value by 10x or even 50x by the time you  spend it, so at that time, the UTXO will not necessarily continue to seem to be too small.

I will admit that I have made some mistakes with UTXO management, and it is not necessarily easy to know in advance what might be good (reasonable/practical) amounts of  value to keep in each UTXO and whether there may or may not be value in terms of combining (or keeping separate) some UTXO from other kinds of UTXOs, and one of the things that I had started to do was to attempt to keep similar kinds of transactions in the same wallet (or account) even though I might still keep the UTXOs (or the bitcoin addresses) separate within the accounts, but one account might end up having 10 or more UTXOs and I try to keep track of from where they came but there can be burdens with these kinds of things including questions about whether someone might see labels that you might put on them... and then ruin some of your privacy.

You can do it when you are really ready to do it. Just like this, just put your level of confidence in Bitcoin first, because if you can't control your lust for the profits that come your way, then you are not ready to enter the long-term investment zone like JJG did. I see almost everyone doing DCA for their long term investments but they don't have a strong mentality to hold it in the long term because they exit when they are already making a profit.

I think you have to learn step by step first to prepare yourself mentally for long-term investment. DCA really supports you in accumulating BTC in each Quartel if you make purchases in each Quartel, but you have to have a level of confidence in the long term early. So with what you said it seems like you are still waiting for your salary from your office to buy BTC. of ​​course that is a pretty good decision and I think do it based on the percentage that you have, divided into your financial interests for living needs and for investing in Bitcoin.

That's quite a long initial journey with DCA that you are doing.... Maybe I will start like that at the start of this year until the next few years, I'm not sure how long it will last but my own target is 2032. Is that realistic? Of course I will try my best.

Yes, now I understand the DCA method and know the benefits myself. Expenditures will now be even tighter after the DCA planning has started. Before doing this I always shopped for non-essential items so for now, unnecessary expenses will no longer be used and it's more important to be strict on DCA than anything else.

In a normal year I always get a bonus from work several times but this time I haven't received it from the office. What is clear is that I already have this plan and will put it in BTC, but I also have a choice between buying it in a lump sum or in several part like you said, on the one hand I want to separate DCA and lump sum with different wallets and also with different records in the spreadsheet, it's clear in my opinion the results will be greater in DCA planning than lump sum because the bonus money cannot be determined how big it is but that in my mind is separate.

Even now I have to be a little more adaptable, the need is increasing day by day, I have to save a little more so I can do more DCA well and strictly.

Investment is not to trouble ourselves if indeed we are eventually affected by inflation and the worst possibility is that we cannot continue while the DCA is done then I think it will not be a problem because we invest not to trouble ourselves and remember this investment is only as a support for us to enjoy the old age that we hope to be beautiful.
Rather than in the end this will hamper our needs by forcing investment which of course will also not be able to be done properly then I think in this case fulfil the needs of life that we will do first.
If necessary, we can also sell some of the investments that we have built before (if they are profitable) to cover the needs we have so that we can be free from the inflation we receive.
Remember, this investment also aims to make changes to our lives so that when our lives are threatened, which can be said to be primary, it is not wrong to temporarily stop the investment we are doing because it is secondary rather than torturing ourselves with increasingly difficult conditions.
But in this case, hopefully we can avoid the worst possibility and still be able to support ourselves and our families properly and not leave our investments.

To me, it is a bit unclear what @snowpega is doing since he seems to be DCA'ing and also buying on dips, and there is nothing wrong with that so long as the person doing the BTC accumulating is still going to be sufficiently happy with what s/he had done if the BTC price ends up not dipping down to the expected prices whether that is going into the $23-$24k range or even dipping into some kind of an area that approaches $20k per BTC.

To me it continues to seem unrealistic to be putting too many hopes into buying on further dips when we are still more than $1k below the 200-week moving average.. yet at the same time, there is nothing wrong with having some lump sum amounts that might be on the sidelines and ready to buy at various price points if the BTC price does end up dipping.. It just seems to be a common mistake for newbies to end up holding too much in reserves in order to prepare for dips that might not end up happening.. so it seems that the main solution is to think through the scenarios ..and maybe even roughly plot them out, and get to some kind of position in which you are happy with either price direction while being prepared for either..

Of course, @snowpega has been registered on the forum for a year, but we cannot necessarily presume that s/he has been accumulating BTC for that long.. but sometimes it can be helpful to figure out some of the time lines in which people had been investing and what their strategies had been in order to attempt to figure out where they might be in their BTC accumulation journey... and even the other day, I was thinking about how long it can take to get up to 1 years worth of income saved up.. 5-10 years if we are lucky, and many people end up taking longer than 10 years to get to a point in which they have 1 years income (or at least 1 year of how much it costs them to live - so their expenses) saved up (or somehow invested in ways that could be considered as quasi-liquid - even if some of the sources of savings are time-locked, like retirement accounts).

So might we assume that most people who are less than 5 years investing have not even gotten to 1 years salary saved up?  and maybe I am setting the goals too high?  because even a person who has 20% to 50% of his/her annual salary/expenses saved up will start to have way more flexibility as compared to someone who is just starting out, and sure there tends to be a combination of cash and BTC that could be being built up, so even if the person is not DCA'ing most of it into bitcoin, there can quite a bit of value in regards to having the fiat savings available that can be injected into bitcoin because of another fact that most people do not have a sufficient amount of an emergency fund saved up, which is enough to support themselves for 3-6 months.. if their worse case scenario ends up playing out.

Just thinking about two friends, David and Alex, who heard about bitcoin in 2014, David invested small amounts of his savings into it. The price of bitcoin has increased significantly since that time, and David put in some risk management strategies and took profits a few times. On the other hand, Alex learned about his friend's enormous gains and hastily invested all of his savings in bitcoin before the major correction of the last bull run. Later, he sold his bitcoin at a loss. They both invested in the same market, but their risk management strategies differed.

Aggressive investors in bitcoin know about the market. They must consider some factors like historical repercussions, decentralization, finite supply, diversification, adoption, and utility. All these show a very bullish sign that bitcoin is going to be the next financial savior when the petrodollar is collapsing very fast. There wasn't any better alternative than gold before, but bitcoin's scarcity makes it more valuable than gold, and there is no reason to believe it will stop its growth in the future.

Good Day,
Thank you for your submission and also congratulations for choosing to invest in Bitcoin. It might just be one of your best decision you have taken.

Any approach you adopt to accumulate Bitcoin is not bad as long as it is increasing your portfolio. A lot of people are using your option of waiting for the dips to buy and since we are still in a relatively undecided market condition, they have been right buying at every dip. This will continue until we have a bull market where market might not give them the chance to buy again because dips might be rare to see.

The DCA method does not really look at price... so the option of waiting to buy at the dip does not really agree with DCA. If you are employing DCA, then waiting for the dips will not be necessary... so I guess you have some modifications to make regarding your approach so you don't miss our on major move that can start any moment.

In other words, we should not only have a strategy when our finances are stable to do this DCA, but we must also have a scenario when the worst situation comes to us. I am someone who believes that bad things can come at any time, and in this conversation we are focusing more on our financial situation.

Don't get too comfortable with the situation, because that's actually something that will make it harder for us in the future. For example, we are doing well right now, and we forget what the future will be like. Because no one knows what will happen one week, one month or one year ahead, so we must be able to prepare for it as well as possible.
And if we are in a situation like that, maybe we should reduce or even stop the DCA that we have been doing, I agree with that.

Hi there

hope y'll doing very well today i was just going through here and i read these discussion you guys having with each other i found it interesting so i thought i must share my experience as well. A couple of months ago i was just waiting for the BTC dip like well as i expected BTC will go for 20,000 it wouldn't reach there. we all know the aspect that we can't time the market anytime we can just make some prediction according to the previous history analysis so that's what i do....well when BTC price came to 25700 i bought some amount of BTC according to the savings i had but i didn't invest my all amount at once  then i still expected btc go more down and literally it happened after that very next week BTC price came more down i was about i guess 24800 and i did more investment and seriously i found DCA as very good technique it make my whole portfolio in profite and i still waiting btc to go more down like i think it can still go to the around 23 to half of 24 thousand what you guys say about that must share you opinion with me it will add up to my knowledge and information as well Many Thanks.

Kind regards

snowpega

I think it's great to buy some to hold and some to play a trader.

A student or a businessman or a job holder can collect bitcoins by following DCA if he wants. DCA can be more effective for students if they have the opportunity to earn some money on a regular basis as they have the potential to become a major asset before they start their career. Those students will definitely be able to become financially independent within a certain period of time than others because a student will have more time than others to grow his bitcoin portfolio which can be difficult for an employed person at times. So for those students who are aware and plan about Bitcoin accumulation through DCA and if they apply correctly that can help them get established in the student life.

It is better to invest in Bitcoin DCA method but since you are currently a student then Bitcoin is the best support for you to accumulate money. I think you should learn this method a bit because it will help you a lot in future. If you invest in bitcoins as a student, your portfolio will surely grow in your old age for long girls. And from here you can get help.

Learn and work

Source link: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

Even though you are moving around the facts a bit @Agbamoni, you are not really changing them significantly enough in  order to be saying anything different from what @Odohu or I was trying to say.

If you have an income that comes in for a semester or twice a year for school, then you can surely divide that up for however, many weeks are within each semester.. .. and then even choose NOT to actually use any of the weekly allowance to buy bitcoin until after you know for sure what your weeks expenses are going to be, whether they are basic expenses or the more extravagant hookers, lambos and blow (or alcohol) type of expenses.

To me, it seems that @Odohu was suggesting that the income or the expenses were not as steady as what you are describing having a set amount for each semester... but then if there might be some side incomes or even side expenses, that could cause the weekly budget to vary, then there can be some flexibility in terms of whether $10 per week would be available for the purchase of bitcoin on the worst of the weeks or whether $50 might be available on the weeks in which there was more surplus cash available.


This point has already been addressed several times including that if the inflation comes, then maybe a person has to make his/her emergency fund greater in order to account for the inflation, and maybe at some point s/he might have to lessen or discontinue DCA'ing into bitcoin.. but hopefully none of the inflation becomes so bad that the BTC accumulator has to sell BTC at a time that is other than any time of his/her own choosing... which also just signifies that there are needs to be careful in terms of not over investing and trying to anticipate expenses, including inflation. and sure sometimes inflation is truly beyond expectations, but it probably is not as much beyond expecation than most of us already know that it happens and it happens in some places more than in other places and sometimes we have to attempt to prepare for those kinds of things (which is another reason to be investing into bitocin for the long term.. maybe even 20-30 years and in that regard, even though the inflation is hurting in the short term, hopefully investing into bitcoin will give more options in the long run, but bitcoin is not going to give any options if you end up having to sell them early because you failed/refused to get your financial and psychological shit together enough in order to make sure that you don't get yourself reckt. and ONLY invest with your extra money, not the money that you need to live on.

You're hitting on a point that I found very interesting, investing as a student can be very difficult because there are other factors that could come up impromptu to spend money on in the school. Am not talking about student who spend so much on alcohol, hookers 😂😂 or whatever. I meant sometimes you might be asked to get a handout, textbook or to print some document so urgently and that alone can spoil the plan of investing the $10 every week. Don't you think it is best to set a monthly target or per semester so that withing that period you can invest huge whenever there is more money left in the week and invest less when the money let for a week is little but at the end you meet your target.

This should be brought into a stated fact that inflation can harm one's level of DCAing.
If there should be an inflation in a country economy and the salary of that person remains the same there must be an effect on the person's method of accumulating Bitcoin. Not minding the emergency and most people get into debt as a result of there salary not meeting up to there basic need

Exactly.  It is good if you put some kind of a number on it, so yes, in a case like that, the hypothetical person (student) may well end up creating his DCA at $10 per week, and maybe s/he would have certain time frames in which s/he would increase the DCA for those particular weeks in which the income that ended up coming in was greater than $10.. and maybe s/he would wait for the whole month to go by in order to make sure that all of the expenses are in and that the emergency fund is sufficiently filled prior to adding the surplus income to the DCA.. and sometimes in those kinds of cases, it might be good to add the earlier months surplus to the next month, unless you end up being happy just making a lump sum investment (which would be the same as DCA, just on a monthly rather than weekly basis) with the surplus that is determined at the end of each month.

Sometimes when regular habits are made to trajectory out the expenses and the income, you will be able to determine right away if you are receiving income that would be considered surplus because if your emergency fund is already full and you have already accounted for the worse case scenario in your monthly (or even 6 month projection of income and expenses), then whenever any extra money comes in that is beyond the worse case scenario, you would be able to spend all of that extra money on bitcoin DCA or whatever else you end up choosing to use it for.. and surely in this case we are trying to focus on when you are going to know that extra income is available for bitcoin DCA and there are always going to be some other competing interests, but if you are early in your bitcoin accumulation journey then surely you may end up putting most of your extra income into your bitcoin accumulation budget and then allocating that extra income to whatever category of accumulation that you deem most fitting (lump sum, DCA and/or buying on dips).

I already told the story of my tight cashflow in 2015 and 2016 in which I had already figured out my budget with enough of an exactness that I would automatically buy BTC right away with half of any extra income that would come in during that time (still pretty early in my BTC accumulation even though I had done most of it in 2014), and the other half of that extra income would just go into my reserves.. and in order to account for whatever other expenses that I had and sometimes income coming i would have some of its own costs that might need to get plugged into my expenses.. and so for example even something as simple as selling piece of furniture or selling a car, a bicycle or a some kind of service, there might be some potential hidden cost that the half set aside would potentially cover (not an exact science, but still worked pretty well for me during that time of my bitcoin accumulation journey).

IMO when you say the actual salary factor it doesn't change any views on the DCA issue.
Indeed, now we are in a really difficult condition and sometimes the income we have is very sufficient with expenses that are getting more and more expensive, but when we understand and can manage those needs well, investing and doing DCA will not be hampered by that because we can adjust the budget we have from the income in a month for daily needs including unexpected needs and to be in investment.
I think we already understand and can be flexible with something like this because of course the initial concept should start when thinking that this investment is only a portion or a few per cent of what we collect from the monthly salary.